Is It the Run-in Yet?

Michael B and I have this debate as to when the "run-in" - the final stretch of the EPL fixtures - starts.  There seems to be no definition.  With almost a quarter of the season left, I think it's too soon but I have seen several newspapers handicapping the run-in this week.  Regardless of when it starts, this year's run-in has plenty to watch as four teams are competing for three Champions League spots and at least eight sides are at some risk of relegation.


No Surprise

 Lascelles was lucky to get away with this.
 Photograph: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

Newcastle's match at Anfield went about as well - or poorly - as we expected.  The Magpies generated precious few chances in the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool.  The best news from this match might be that Jamaal Lascelles did not get a red card - or even a foul - for bringing down Mo Salah on the edge of the box as time expired (see picture); the Newcastle captain would have been looking at a three-match suspension at exactly the wrong point in the schedule.

Elsewhere there was a decidedly mixed bag of results from a Newcastle-not-getting-relegated perspective.  Swansea grabbed all three points from West Ham and slipped past the Magpies in the standings.  Brighton continued Arsenal's nightmare of a season with a 2-1 win over the Gunners and have pretty much put to bed their chance of relegation.  Bournemouth nicked a point off Leicester at home but the Cherries were already counting the three points before an incredible  Riyad Mahrez free kick in the 97th minute leveled things; after Bournemouth's late game antics against Newcastle the week before, don't look for any sympathy for me.  Spurs were Magpie-friendly with a steady 2-0 win over Huddersfield.  The 0-0 draw between Stoke and Southampton highlighted the finishing problems that plague most of the relegation-threatened teams; the draw was helpful to Newcastle since neither picked up the three points.

Totally conflicted as I watched the heartbreaker of a match at Selhurst Park.  With Crystal Palace shockingly up 2-0 on Man United, all I could see was a key relegation competitor getting an unexpected three points.  As Man United scored their first goal, I was making a deal with myself that, even though I really like Crystal Palace and don't have much love for Mourinho, rooting for a draw would be acceptable. Of course, once Lukaku leveled things at 76 minutes, the Red Devils sensed the blood in the water.  Sure enough, there was Nemenja Matic stuffing the game winner in at 91 minutes.  Jeff H will be thrilled as Man United get a second straight YouTubeableMoment (you might say it was an auto Matic pick).  Great moment in the telecast when the camera focused in on the raucous Eagle fans reveling in the 2-0 lead; the announcer quickly pointed out the fans would have been as vocal even if the score was 0-3.

Probably should mention that Man City handled Chelsea 1-0 at home.  Conte did many of the same things that Benitez did to slow Man City down and got the same result.  Commentators however suggested it was one thing for Newcastle to take a defensive approach but an entirely different thing for a top team like Chelsea to do so.  Maybe, but protecting your goal differential in a tight table makes sense to me.


BFS Run-in Predictor

Maybe the definition of the run-in should be when I feel like there are few enough games left that it's not an overwhelming task to set up an EPL prediction spreadsheet.  Which means we are at the run-in because I just finished spreadsheet.  Simple enough to do, just assign win, lose or draw for each match.  I ran a few scenarios myself then, looked at the 538 match-by-match projections.  Happy to say there were no matches where I had one side winning and 538 the other.  However, they don't project any matches as draws so there were some differences based on that.  In some cases I saw a close match and they saw a clear winner; many others though they saw as close too.

Some notable trends emerged as I ran through the possibilities:

1. Man City will win the EPL (effing brilliant Captain Obvious)
2. In all the scenarios, Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham get the other three CL spots; Liverpool beat out Spurs every time but Man United finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on how they do against Liverpool and Man City
3. West Brom go down every time (see comment on 1)
4. The last two relegation spots usually go to Stoke or Southampton but West Ham and, gulp, Newcastle occasionally pop up; Swansea, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace don't show up in the bottom three but are never more than a few points from the drop zone, meaning one wrong projection and they are in the mix

I'll be updating with actual results so we'll see how this goes.


European Stuff

The EPL sent two teams onto the Champions League quarterfinals as Man City and Liverpool easily completed the second legs of their series.  Tottenham was looking pretty good at 1-0 before Juventus slipped in two quick tallies at 64 and 67 minutes.  A disappointing result, especially given they had the lead, but hard to find too much fault with their effort.  Man United and Chelsea have their chances next week.  Arsenal woke up from their nightmare long enough to take a 2-0 win in the first leg of their Europa Cup round of 16 tie with AC Milan; with the second leg at the Emirates, the Gunners look good to advance.


Union Top of the Table

What the kool keepers are wearing - Photo Daniel Gajdamowicz

Jeff H has provided a solid summary of the 2-0 win over the Revolution in last week's comment section.  The cold water people will point out that the Revolution aren't expected to set the league on fire and that the Union played more than 60 minutes a man up but could only score twice.  True enough but there were some positive takeaways.  First, we might not be the slowest team any more. Trusty chased down Agudelo and made a tackle that, if not properly executed, is probably a red card.  And Cory Burke, signed from Bethlehem, was a revelation as well.  They probably will play even better with Dockal in the #10 role.  Downside - CJ missed a lot of chances and not sure that our fullback core is that strong or deep.   Did you notice the Andre Blake's neckware to combat the frigid conditions? Either that or he was in a car accident(see photo).  Didn't hinder his performance and he was typically solid between the posts.


Keyest Match of the Year?

Newcastle take on Southampton at St. James' Park on Saturday at 10; the TV people understand the importance as it's on NBCSN.  A win for either side would vastly change their relegation outlooks.  A loss would not be crushing but would be a lost opportunity.  So many Magpie people are talking about the need for - and likelihood of - three points; indeed a win would be a massive step away from relegation but I'm not looking for more than a draw here.

That match comes on after a cracking start to the weekend - Man United vs Liverpool at Old Trafford (7:30 NBCSN).  Liverpool probably need to win if they hope to finish second but even a loss likely won't seriously damage their chances of a top four finish.  Even a draw gives Man United a slight advantage in the race for second.

Most of the other matches feature top table teams versus relegation challengers, which means I have no use for underdogs this weekend.  So Man City (vs Stoke - Monday at 4 pm), Chelsea (vs Crystal Palace - 12:30 Saturday), Tottenham (vs Bournemouth - noon on Sunday) and Arsenal (vs Watford - 9:30 on Sunday), please take care of business.  I'll throw Burnley (7th in the table!) in this group and hope they can beat West Ham.

We do have Huddersfield - Swansea on Saturday at 10 am (NBC Gold).  This strategic rooting is hard to sort out sometimes.  A draw isn't awful but since Swansea are the more likely competition with Newcastle to stay up, I think I prefer Huddersfield to win.  Everton and Brighton are both just about over the line but a win pretty much seals the deal for one of those teams.

Btw, those odd starting times on Sunday and Monday come about because we spring forward earlier than the English.

The MLS, in its infinite wisdom, has elected to field a league with 23 teams.  The more mathematically inclined may notice that this is an odd number (it's strange too) which means one MLS team is idle even with a full schedule.  Between that and Concacaf Champions League action, the early season schedule is very choppy.  In short, the Union are idle this weekend. 

Don't forget Champions League and Europa Cup action midweek.  Check your local listings as they say but pretty sure Fox Sports (1 or 2 or others) will have the matches.

Mediocrity Will Out

Dan Gosling cuts the deficit in half

Very strange to see Newcastle up on Bournemouth 2-0 at half time of Saturday's match.  Not that they didn't deserve it but a shock nonetheless.  In response to the idle question on my part as to how many minutes this season had the Magpies enjoyed a two goal lead, BFS Director of Operations Research Dennis quickly provided the answer - 26 minutes (18 and 8 in the two matches against West Ham).  But Newcastle with a two goal lead is like me with a birdie or two on the front nine; things will even out and I will not break 90.  Sure enough, the Magpies surrendered goals in the 80th and 89th minute to snatch a draw from the jaws of victory.  In fact, they were in serious danger of coughing up a third goal and getting no points.  Somewhat galling were the missed opportunities that could have made it 3-0 or even 4-0 which did indeed come back to haunt them.  Post match, Dennis provided proper perspective; standing on the first tee I would have gladly taken a 2-2 draw and he's right.

There were draws for others in the relegation fight as well - Stoke went 1-1 with Leicester and Southampton 1-1 with Burnley.  Brighton and Huddersfield got big boosts with wins over Swansea and West Brom respectively.  Crystal Palace looked ready to nick a point off Tottenham but Harry Kane's late header scotched that plan.  Not a terrible set of results for Newcastle, just would have been better with three points instead of one.  The 538 prediction has the Magpies down to just an 18% chance of being relegated, the lowest I can remember since I started checking it.

Liverpool "hammered" West Ham 4-1 while Manchester United came back from 0-1 to get a 2-1 win over Chelsea in a very entertaining match. Jeff H, here's what you've been waiting for - Jesse Lingard as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A more than worthy game winner.  The weekend matches leave Chelsea on the outside looking in at the top four but just six points separate 2nd through 5th so this thing ain't over yet.


Cloak of Inevitability

Announcer Peter Drury was referring to the result of the Arsenal-Man City midweek league match after the Citizens went up 3-0 when he uttered this phrase but it may apply to their season more broadly.  With the EPL win over Arsenal, they maintain the 16-point lead; any combination of 15 points earned by Man City or dropped by Man United in the final 10 games clinches the title.   Over the weekend, they easily captured the Carabao League Cup (thrashing Arsenal in that one as well). And, in Champions League, they bring a 4-1 lead to the second leg of their tie with Basel; the quarter finals beckon.


The Trials of VAR

Snow globe dream for Llorente

Those who tuned in for the Tottenham-Rochdale saw an, ahem, interesting match, which is not the same as a great match.  First, it was like watching soccer in a snow globe.  Precipitation was heavy enough that you could follow the passes in the tracks of snow.  Btw, English weather forecasting tip - if the pitch is lined in blue rather than white, expect snow.  Second, Spurs blew open a tight contest (1-1 at half) with five second half goals.  Killed the suspense but we suspect that Fernando Llorente's confidence really needed that hat trick. But mostly what people talked about was "VARmageddon" (as one pundit labeled it) - the oversized role that video assistant referee played in the first half.

The reviews were mostly unkind though I did find some willing to defend the system.  A partial list of the VAR decisions includes:

- ruling out Tottenham goal due to foul by Llorente
- not awarding a PK after Moura was possibly fouled in the box
- changing a free kick to a PK as the holding on Trippier continued into the box
- disallowing Son's PK due to feinting after the run-up was completed

VAR was also consulted on all the goals that did count.  With the possible exception of the non-call on Moura, the consensus seems to be that VAR did result in the right decision.  Note that with respect to penalty kicks, the laws state that play is stopped and restarted with an indirect free kick, regardless of whether a goal is scored, when there is "feinting to kick the ball once the kicker has completed the run-up( feinting in the run-up is permitted)."  The rules specifically say the kicker should be cautioned (i.e be shown the yellow card).  Sure looked like Son got to the ball, then stopped. And even though players from both sides encroached into the penalty area, Son's offense is the more serious so the correct restart was indeed the indirect free kick coming out.

No, the ire seems directed more at the length of time required for the VAR process to play out.  To some extent these complaints are legitimate; the worst was how long it took to revise the free kick to a PK.  This feels like another case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.  The stated purpose of VAR is to correct "clear and obvious errors" not to eliminate all incorrect calls.  If it takes you more than 30 seconds of reviewing the tape to determine if it is a clear and obvious error, by definition, it is not.

However, to those on the fainting couch about how VAR will be the destruction of football as we know it, please take a deep breath.  First, it is a work in progress.  I do agree that they'll need to learn to make the decisions quicker but that may just be a matter of experience.  Second, the protests against stoppages in the flow of play ring a bit hollow.  Most of the decisions will be after a goal has been scored.  The time spent primping, preening and completing choreographed celebrations should allow for enough time for the review to take place. Sometimes the review actually takes place as play continues.  But mostly, it's not like stoppages never occur.  Sometimes it is for real injuries but how often is the game stopped for imaginary blows to the face or other fake injuries?  The game was not perfect or pure before VAR.


Baloney Again? (with apologies to Mark Knopfler)

Hope is supposed to spring eternal but sometimes it just doesn't feel that way.  The Union season will kick off on Saturday with a home match against the Revolution with generally low expectations.  The team has added some players that could make a difference, including forward David Accam, midfielder Borek Dockal and defender Auston Trusty.  We'll get the obvious line out of the way early - who doesn't want a trusty defender.  But seriously, they do come highly recommended, especially Accam and Dockal.  Still most of the projections don't sound too good.

Quotes like "haven't done enough to do that [make the playoffs]" (World Soccer Talk) and "hard to see this club making the playoffs" (NBC Sports) litter the landscape.  The preview at mlssoccer.com has them finishing 11th (last) in the Eastern Conference, though that was before the Dockal signing.  ESPN offered a more positive tone saying the Union have "one of the most attractive forward lines in MLS and could make some noise in the East."  Doesn't say what that noise is though.  Of all the previews I read, this was my favorite.  Great detail on the players and suggests some of the upside of developing young players.  He has the Union finishing anywhere from 4th to 8th but believes the most likely scenario is "about seventh in the East, just outside the playoffs, again."  Yeah, baloney again.


Chester Clinch Third Straight

It's early April in the Football Manager calendar and Chester have clinched their third straight Premier League title with a 6-2 win over Burnley.  As the league title looked pretty inevitable, our attentions have been much more on Champions League and the FA Cup.  Chances in the CL took a bit of a hit with a 1-1 home draw against Atletico Madrid.  Neither side generated much in the way of good scoring opportunities and it was a close match.  But heading to Vicente Calderon Stadium (my game has no way of knowing they built a new stadium) tied and having surrendered an away goal does not bode well for our chances.


We Might Walk Alone

Newcastle have Liverpool at Anfield in the featured 12:30 NBC match except that for some reason, it's on NBCSN.  There's no reason to expect any points from this match but I do remember that Newcastle won [drew] this fixture in May 2016 even as they were heading down to the Championship division.  Grabbing a point would be awesome.

Tottenham - Huddersfield is the 10 am Saturday NBCSN match but I'll probably go with the alternative Southampton-Stoke City relegation matchup at the same time on CNBC.  Another relegation-relevant match at 10 is Swansea - West Ham but you'll need NBC Gold to watch that.  Having a little trouble seeing myself up at 7:30 on Saturday to catch Burnley - Everton; with neither relegation or European football in their apparent futures, it's not clear how compelling this match will be.

Sunday's televised matches may provoke a little more curiousity.  At 8:30 Brighton host Arsenal; very interested to see if the Gunners pick themselves up from consecutive schoolings by Man City and deal with an opponent they should be able to beat.  Certainly Newcastle fans would appreciate that.  The later match is Man City hosting Chelsea; interested to see if Chelsea rebounds from the loss to Man United.  If they are not careful, they could be five points out of the last Champions League spot.  The TV schedule concludes Monday with another match at Selhurst Park - Crystal Palace hosting Man United.

Plenty of MLS action to watch, including the Union opener on Saturday at 7 pm on PHL-17.  Looks like it will be a toasty 35 degrees by the end.  Not my turn to use the season tickets so Jeff and Graham will have to bundle up for that one.

Don't forget the second leg of the Champions League ties as well.  Tuesday has Liverpool-Porto and PSG - Real Madrid while Wednesday has Tottenham - Juventus and Man City -Basel.  The Liverpool and Man City ties don't look all that competitive but the other two should be excellent.

Man, I gotta fit all this in around the IAAF World Championships.

No Quad For You

Manchester City is, by just about any definition, having a dominant season.  They lead the Premier League by 16 points, will play in the Carabao League Cup final this weekend, and are poised for a deep run in the Champions League.  But, they will not land the quad this year as they were unceremoniously dumped from the FA Cup by League One side Wigan.  City played the second half down a man after Fabian Delph's red card in first half stoppage time (more on that below) but still mostly dominated play.  But a 79th minute goal by Will Grigg earned his side a trip to the FA Cup quarterfinals and sent the Wigan Athletic supporters into rapture.

Their Manchester counterparts were not particularly impressive but managed a 2-0 win over Huddersfield.  The Red Devils had but the two shots on target, both from Lukaku that happened to go in; they had another ruled out by VAR (more on that below).  Chelsea was unpressed in a 4-0 win over Hull City while EPL colleagues Leicester (1-0 over Sheffield United), Brighton (3-1 over Coventry) and Southampton (2-1 over West Brom) all advanced as well.

Those who tuned in for Rochdale - Tottenham were treated to a classic FA Cup match.  Quaint small stadium.  Check.  Rabid home town supporters dreaming of upset.  Check.  Premier League side playing many second teamers and perhaps a bit complacent.  Check.  Spurs were definitely listless, perhaps still hungover from massive midweek 2-2 Champions League draw at Juventus.  They paid for it when Rochdale snuck a goal in just before the halftime whistle.  Tottenham levelled things at 59 minutes as newcomer Lucas Moura maybe provided a glimpse of what's to come.  But as the match drifted on Pochettino was forced to sub on the heavies.  Dele was fouled in the box and Kane converted the PK at 88 minutes and all looked good.  Except somebody forgot to tell Rochdale.  A few seconds of letdown and the next thing you know, Steve Davies puts in the tying goal at 93 minutes.  There was much rejoicing in Rochdale and grudging respect from the viewers at Michael B's well-appointed bachelor pad.

So there will be two replays.  Tottenham will host Rochdale at Wembley on Wednesday and Swansea will host Sheffield Wednesday Tuesday.


This Week in Refereeing Controversy

We have two incidents to review this week.  Both fall into the category - at least for me - of form over substance.  That is, in both cases I believe the right call was made but the optics weren't so cool.  We'll start with Fabian Delph's sending off against Wigan.  You can see his challenge here.  Some think it's only worth a yellow but Delph launched himself with a stiff leg raised above the ball.  Clear red for me.  But that wasn't really where the controversy was.  Referee Anthony Taylor approached the scene of the crime with a yellow card in his hand (he may have even shown it to Delph but I can't remember).  Wigan players and coach go nuts.  Next thing you know, Taylor is flashing the red card.  Wow, it looked really bad, like Taylor had been talked into a red by the players.  I don't think that's what happened but it sure looked that way.  Of course, this gets Guardiola going.  (Geez ever since I talked about how cool it was to see him and Hodgson talking calmly during a break in play at Crystal Palace, he's been behaving badly.)  Anyway, I think there are two things that Taylor could have done better here that might have avoided some of the theater.  First, I would not have taken a card out of my pocket until I got to the spot of the foul to allow for some "reflection" time and possibly input from the AR.  Second, once he realized he wanted to change the card to red, he would have done better to take the time to go to the sideline to confer with the AR.  Even if it's just for show, it does send the signal that the change was not the result of lobbying but rather of additional information from the refereeing team.

Six year-old child's version of VAR

The second incident involves VAR, in which  Juan Mata's goal was disallowed for offside.  You can see the play here.  Okay, that is really close.  Real time, the AR did not flag Mata as offside.  But since it was a goal, the play was reviewed.  TV viewers were initially treated to a ridiculous photo that looked like an amateur production (left).  Later the proper the picture (below) was displayed showing that Mata was indeed offside, though by the barest of margins.

VAR - professional version

Which sparked the second part of the controv ersy.  The VAR is only supposed to overturn clear and obvious errors. Some would argue that this was not such a case and you have to agree that it was an incredibly close call.  But looking at the picture (the good one not the one with the hand drawn lines), how can you argue that Mata was not offside?  Okay, but aren't attackers supposed to get the benefit of the doubt and doesn't VAR take that away?  Well here's the thing.  I was definitely schooled in the "if you're not sure it was offside, don't raise the flag" and I found numerous sites on the internet that contained that specific wording ("if you're not sure").  But they were all old postings.  There's no direction on this in current LOTG; the online module I just did for recertification also makes no mention of this "benefit of the doubt" concept.  And to get picky, don't call it if you're not sure is not the same thing as don't call it if it's close.  I realize that practically speaking there's probably an enormous overlap between those two situations but there will be times when you're sure, even if it was very close.

I'm sticking with my support for VAR.    This aspect of it may have an anti-scoring bias but there will also be goals awarded that might have otherwise not been allowed.  On balance, I think it's better for the game.


EPL Champions League Performance

Not so good this week.  But wait, both Chelsea (1-1 vs Barcelona) and Man United (0-0 Sevilla) got draws.  What's so bad about that?  Well, Chelsea was home so that means Barca got an away goal so Chelsea must win outright or get at least a 2-2 draw at Camp Nou in the second leg to advance.  No prob, right?  And Man United's draw was on the road, which means they did not get an away goal.  So only a 0-0 draw or an outright win back at Old Trafford see them through to the next round.  Ironically, if the scores had been reversed, both EPL sides would likely be feeling better right now.


Chester Advance

I've taken advantage of a slow period and have moved ahead to late March in the Football Manager virtual calendar.  We are on to the FA Cup semi-finals where we will face Southampton; we are massive favorites there.  We've also made it to the Champions League quarterfinals, where Atletico Madrid will be the opponent.  The oddsmakers see that as dead even. And, we still lead the Premier League by 13 points with eight matches to go.

Most of the drama is off the pitch right now.  New Slovakian signee Jan Weiss is not settling in at Chester; trying to get countryman Martin Skrtel to help out there, except Skrtel's making a minor fuss about playing time.  Speaking of demanding playing time, long-time captain Ronan Gallagher is very upset about lack of first team action and has requested a transfer; he is being a general pain in the butt.  Objectively, I have four strikers better than Gallagher and really can't afford to play him except in obvious mismatches.  Coaching staff said I needed to relieve him of captaincy before he ruined morale, which I did reluctantly.  Turns out to have been a real lift to the team - almost every player said they were thrilled that I named Jacob Mathebula to the position.


More Tight Match-ups

The weekend is packed with more critical fixtures, especially for the relegation candidates.  None is bigger than Newcastle's trip to Bournemouth.  The Cherries are a tough side and though I really should be thinking three points here, I would actually not be too dismayed by a draw.  Totally crazy that the Magpies could finish the weekend as high as 10th or as low as 18th in the table.  That match is Saturday at 10 but is only on NBC Gold.

In a similar vein, we have Brighton-Swansea, separated by just a point, also at 10 am,  also on NBC Gold.  The other relegation-relevant fixture is West Brom hosting Huddersfield, at, you guessed it, 10 am on NBC Gold.  Schedulers might be missing the point that relegation battles are great theater.

Selhurst Park in the blazing mid-day winter sun

So what's on TV?  Well, the best match of the weekend looks to be Man United-Chelsea on Sunday at 9:05 (NBCSN).  We're looking forward to Crystal Palace -Tottenham at 7 am on Sunday morning (NBCSN); the Eagles are always interesting and memories of the trip to Selhurst Park for an early start still resonate for me (see picture) .  Other televised matches are Leicester-Stoke Saturday at 7:30 (CNBC), Liverpool - West Ham (10 am Saturday CNBC), and Watford - Everton in the "featured" NBC match at 12:30 on Saturday.

Don't forget the League Cup Final on Sunday at 11:30 featuring Man City and Arsenal at Wembley.  Ironically, they will face each other again on Thursday in EPL action.  What's really weird is that of all the league matches this week, this one involves the biggest point differential between the two sides.  By that I mean Man City is 27 points up on Arsenal; the next closest in terms of point disparity is Tottenham at 25 points better than Crystal Palace.  I realize this is in large part due to Man City's dream year but it also points out how this season is becoming a nightmare for the Gunners.  Don't mean to be piling on here but will Arsenal tolerate two straight non Champions League season?

FA Cup replays midweek as well so don't complain that there's nothing to watch after the Olympics end.

And creeping up fast, the Union begin regular season play a week from Saturday. Note to self - remember to find some MLS season previews for next week's post.

A Keeper?

New Newcastle keeper Dubravka marshaling his defense

I'll admit that I didn't understand Rafa's determination to bring in a new keeper.   Darlow is young and has made some critical saves.  True, he is inconsistent and doesn't have great command of the box.  But, there were other positions that needed attention.

After watching Martin Dubravka's performance in Newcastle's 1-0 win over Manchester United, I stand corrected.  Aside from several big saves to protect the lead, Dubravka generally played with a "not in my house" attitude that seemed to spread to the rest of the team.  Sure it's only one match but he does look like, well, a keeper.

Dubravka wasn't the only hero on the field in a contest that got some added pressure when results elsewhere meant the Magpies kicked off the match in the relegation zone.  I don't recall any errors from the back line.  Jon Jo Shelvey made the passes but also the tackles without getting a yellow card or even fouling that much.  His mate Mo Diame might have played his best game for Newcastle.  Kenedy continued to generate offense and Matt Ritchie got the Newcastle goal.  Perez wasn't awful and even though Gayle didn't contribute to the offense, he blocked two possible goals late in the match.  Actually Gayle should have been awarded a PK in the first half but his reputation precedes him and Craig Pawson gave the benefit of the doubt to the defender.

A massive win, a massive three points.  Certainly not attributing altruistic motives to the Magpies but the defeat of Manchester United was a big favor to their competitors for a Champions League spot.  You're welcome.


The Beginning of a Beautiful Friendship (apologies to Humphrey Bogart)

Seeing Olivier Giroud in the blue Chelsea kit was a bit jarring but he seemed to take to it well.  Check out this combination play the Frenchman worked with Eden Hazard, this week's YouTubeableMoment [new link] [better link here - go to :57 seconds](truth be told I wanted to make Ritchie's goal for Newcastle the YouTubeableMoment but felt that would be piling on for Jeff H).  West Brom had been tough up to that point but from there Chelsea went on to a relatively comfortable 3-0 win, possibly easing the pressure on Conte for the time being.

Another manager under pressure - Arsene Wenger - didn't have such a good day as Arsenal were beaten by bitter rivals Tottenham 0-1.  This was a somewhat curious affair in that the outcome was clearly in doubt until the final whistle but as John Cross from The Mirror put it:

That was one of the biggest 1-0 thrashings I've ever seen.

Sorry Gunners fans but I have to agree; Arsenal were totally outplayed.  Metrics at 538 concur.  The loss leaves Arsenal in 6th, eight points adrift of 4th and seven behind Spurs.  It is difficult to imagine Wenger would survive a second straight season in which Arsenal do not 1) finish in the top four and 2) finish ahead of Tottenham.

Rounding out life at the top, Man City disposed of Leicester 5-1 while Liverpool handled Southampton 2-0.


Stick With the Plan

Jese's Stoke teammates try to convince him that
 Charlie Adams should take the PK 

I assume that most professional clubs decide before the match who will take any PKs.  In Football Manager, I submit a list with my order of preference at the start of the match and can do nothing to change it once a PK has been called.  This makes sense to me; you don't want players standing over the ball debating who gets to take it.  That never seems to work out well.

Case in point - Stoke vs Brighton.  Both are fighting to avoid relegation.  Brighton had a 1-0 lead but Shakira Shaqiri leveled things in the 68th minute.  Then, in the 89th minute, Brighton conceded a PK when Dale Stephens pushed Stoke forward Jese in the box.  A big chance for Stoke to take all three points and maybe escape the relegation zone.  But Jese becomes agitated because he will not be the one to take the PK even though he "earned" it;  teammates tried to calm him, with limited success.  We'll never know whether Jese's outburst was responsible but the fact is, Charlie Adams missed the PK.   As Men in Blazers noted, Jese in effect iced his teammate.  What was Jese thinking?

Other action in the relegation battle saw Swansea win again, this time 1-0 over Burnley; the Swans have 14 points from their last seven matches.  Of course, it does reveal how badly they had been sucking that they are 16th and just one point out of 18th despite this streak.  Bournemouth missed a chance to put more distance between them and the relegation fight as they lost to Huddersfield 4-1.  On again, off again Everton were on this time beating Crystal Palace 3-1.  And West Ham brought Watford clearly into the relegation fight with their 2-0 win.

Things are still compact.  Three points separate 13th through 19th and just five points separate 10th through 18th.  At 538, they're predicting 37 points will be enough to keep you up.  The good news for Newcastle is that three wins would get them there.  The bad news is that two of the likeliest wins would be West Brom and Watford, the last two matches of the season.  In other words, safety, if it is coming, might come late. 


Champions League

Hey, the EPL isn't bombing out, at least not yet, in Champions League knockout play.  Man City continued to plow over opponents, handing Basel a 4-0 thrashing in Switzerland.  Liverpool was similarly rude to their hosts, pummeling Porto 5-0 on a rainy night in Portugal.  Tottenham didn't get the win but got two road goals and come back to Wembley even with Juventus.  Spurs got off to a terrible start and were down 0-2 in just nine minutes.  Harry Kane got one back before halftime but the match - and the tie - may have turned on Higuain's PK in first half stoppage time that rattled off the cross bar.  Spurs did have the run of play and Eriksen leveled things at 72 minutes.  A really good result for the English side.


FA Cup, Winter Olympics, Indoor T&F Championships

A busy weekend even if the English football calendar is limited to the eight FA Cup 6th round matches.  They are conveniently spread out over four days for maximum viewing pleasure.  You can see Chelsea -Hull City on Friday (3 pm FS2).  Saturday has Sheffield Wednesday vs Swansea (7:30 FS1) and Huddersfield - Man United (12:30 FS2).  Rochdale will host Tottenham Sunday at 11 (FS1) and the round concludes on Monday with Man City traveling to Wigan (2:55 on FS1).

Chelsea and Man United will have the first leg of their Champions League ties Tuesday and Wednesday next week.  I expect they'll be on one of the Fox channels.

With the free time offered by this limited set of fixtures, why not check out the USATF Indoor Championships on Saturday and Sunday afternoon on NBCSN.  Somebody wrote a useful preview you can check out here.  Man does not live by English football alone.  It just seems that way.

RTFM

Or more accurately, RTFLOTG (as in Laws of the Game).  Sunday's big game (Liverpool - Tottenham) did not disappoint and provided plenty to talk about.  For the record, the match was a cracking 2-2 draw but most of the post match discussion was focused on refereeing decisions in the final minutes - two possible offsides that weren't called and associated PKs that were.  Surprisingly I could not find focused clips but you can see the incidents here with the first offside/PK event at 2:43 and the second at 5:20. For those interested in the more positive moments, I recommend checking out Wanyama's incredible strike at 1:25 of this video.

For me, the first incident was not offside but also not a PK.  The second was offside which means that even though I feel it was a foul, there shouldn't have been a PK.  Had VAR been in place I think the decisions in the first incident (no offside, PK awarded) would have stood.  In the second, VAR would not have overturned the foul but it would have spotted the offside and negated the penalty.  I'm going to focus on the first offside debate as the amount of incorrect information thrown about by TV and internet commenters was annoying.  This is going to get wonky so if it's not your thang, skip to the next section.

First and foremost, it appears that many are not aware of a change in the interpretation of offside that went into effect in June 2015.  Prior to then, the direction was that a defender had to possess the ball to take offside off the table.  The new interpretation is that:

A player in an offside position receiving the ball from an opponent who deliberately plays the ball (except from a deliberate save by any opponent) is not considered to have gained an advantage.

Does anyone disagree that Lovren deliberately kicked the ball?  That he miskicked the ball to Kane does not change that it was a deliberate act, as opposed to a deflection.  I will grant that this doesn't completely end the controversy but the outrage that this was such an obvious blown call is completely misplaced.  Read the rules before you spout on about incompetence.  Some claimed that the conversation between Jonathan Moss and his AR Edward Smart (caught by SkySports and included in this post on espn -a good overview of the whole match as well) proved that the AR didn't even know the rules.  Um no, Smart's question (did Lovren touch the ball?) shows he knows exactly what would make the play offside.  I will also grant that Moss's response (I don't know if Lovren touched the ball) is mildly disconcerting, although the PGMOL said Moss was simply saying he didn't know the identity of the player who miskicked the ball.

Now there were some with familiarity of the change who still argued that Kane's presence behind Lovren constituted interfering with an opponent.  Well let's look at the LOTG to see what they say about interfering with an opponent:

 -preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing  the opponent's line of vision or
- challenging an opponent for the ball or
- clearly attempting to play a ball which is close to him when this action impacts on an opponent or
- making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

Kane did none of these.  His mere presence behind Lovren does not constitute interference.  Not saying this is what happened in the Harry Kane situation but this slide from the US Soccer On-line training module illustrates what I mean by an attacker's presence/proximity to play is not sufficient to constitute an infraction.  I lost this argument for years as a coach until I finally understood the rule.  The keeper is supposed to know to ignore the attacker in an offside position.  We may not agree with this but the rule is pretty clear on it.  In the case at hand, very difficult to argue that Lovren wouldn't have kicked the ball had Kane not been behind him and equally difficult to argue that he screwed up because of Kane's position.  But, I will acknowledge that those who took this tack to argue the play was offside at least had some familiarity with the rules.


Grab A Shirt, Get A PK

Darlow went the right way and got a hand on the shot
but Milivojevic still converted the PK

Some are saying that Newcastle's 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace was a fair result but to me it looked like the Eagles were the better side; 538 metrics seem to agree.  Complaints that Clark's penalty for shirt grabbing was soft ring hollow for me.  Yes, I've seen worse grabs and shirt pulling is like holding in the NFL - you could call it on every corner kick.  So what, you grab a shirt in the box you take your chances.  Palace missed some other golden opportunities and Clark cleared a ball off the line late that had beaten Darlow.  We were lucky.

The January transfer window ended with the Magpies adding Kenedy, Slimani (striker from Leicester) and Dubravka (keeper from Sparta Prague).  Kenedy has already shown his worth and might provide even more once he's fully fit and able to go 90 minutes.  Slimani might add some scoring punch but he was our third choice behind Jorgensen and Sturridge.  Dubravka might be an improvement but mostly his arrival allows youngster Freddy Woodman to go out on loan to get some experience.  On balance, not awful but once again, it feels like the bare minimum and hard to say it will be enough to avoid relegation.


That'll Leave A Mark

With Man City up 1-0 on Burnley, Raheem Sterling failed to score from one yard out (video is here).  Aside from being a possible winner for the year's Lead Boot Award, the miss was costly as the Clarets were able to snatch a 1-1 draw with a late goal. When he was finally subbed, Sterling took his gloves off and slammed them on the ground.  The announcer kindly observed "Well, at least he didn't miss."  Ouch.

Arsenal certainly did wake up and smell the coffee as they put a 5-1 hurting on an enigmatic Everton side.  Newcomers Aubameyang had a goal and Mkhitaryan had three assists while oldcomer Aaron Ramsey contributed a hat trick.  The Toffees just can't seem to be consistent enough to remove themselves from a relegation threat.

Elsewhere, Chelsea did their manager no favors with a 1-4 loss at Watford.  Sure they were down a man for most of the match but looked in position to leave with a 1-1 draw - or maybe even more - after Hazard scored in the 82nd minute.  But the Blues collapsed from there, yielding three goals in the final 10 minutes.  Conte did not get the dreaded vote of confidence but the board did deny they were interviewing for his replacement.  Stay tuned.

While Tottenham and Newcastle got draws, the other "six-point" matches had a winner.  Brighton were clearly the better side in a 3-1 home win over West Ham.  Both Southampton (vs West Brom) and Bournemouth (vs Stoke) were down early but came back for 3-2 and 2-1 wins respectively.  With 15 points in their last seven matches, Bournemouth's relegation chance has fallen below 1% in the 538 model.  Swansea, with a 1-1 draw at Leicester and eight points in four matches, have dragged themselves out of the bottom three, although by no means out of the woods.


Butler Did It

Mid-week FA Cup replays were once again mostly a disaster for the underdogs.  Spurs weren't exactly on fire but an own goal off the thigh of Newport defender Dan Butler got Tottenham on their way to a 2-0 win.  Birmingham forced Huddersfield into extra time, at which point the Terriers fired in three in 13 minutes to end that one.  And Swansea, resurging Swansea, pasted Notts County 8-1.  Only League One Rochdale managed a win - 1-0 over Championship side Millwall.  So Round Five is set with 10 EPL sides, three Championship teams, two from League One and one from League Two.

Tottenham got a favorable draw for the 5th round as they'll face League One's Rochdale.  Brighton got a break too, drawing League Two Coventry City.  Wigan Athletic supporters can't be too pleased about having to face Man City, even if it is at their home pitch.  Fifth round matches are the weekend of February 16-19.
 

London Derby and More Six-pointers

The weekend kicks off Saturday at 7:30 (CNBC) with a London Derby between Tottenham and Arsenal.  Probably more at stake for the Gunners but Spurs fans will likely not be keen on anything but a win at home.

Six-pointers include Everton hosting Crystal Palace, West Ham at home vs Watford and Stoke vs Brighton (10 am Saturday CNBC).  I guess I could include Bournemouth-Huddersfield in that category too (Bournemouth and Everton are level on points); you can see that one at 7 am Sunday morning on NBCSN.  Swansea-Burnley?  The Clarets are not relegation fodder at this point so not in six-point list for me.

Newcastle host Man United so not looking for any points this weekend; that's at 9:15 on Sunday on NBCSN.  The other Manchester side have Leicester at home Saturday at 12:30 (NBC).  I wonder if Conte could survive a Chelsea loss at home to West Brom (another Monday afternoon match on NBCSN).  The Baggies relegation rivals are hoping we don't have to find out.  Champions League candidate Liverpool travel to Southampton Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.

I know the Winter Olympics will be on but they don't have soccer and they don't even have NHL players in the hockey.  Not saying I won't be checking it out but I don't think it will put a big strain on watching EPL stuff.

Unlucky or Ungood?

Newcastle are probably both.  Anybody who watched the Magpies 1-1 draw with Burnley would likely agree that Newcastle sure looked like the winner there.  Metrics from 538 Soccer agree, suggesting that based on the location of shots and who took them, Newcastle could have been expected to have at least another goal.  To some extent, failure to convert these chances may be a matter of (bad) luck - a hot keeper, a shot off the post, etc.  But then again, if it's the same players consistently (looking at you Joselu and Gayle) not putting these opportunities away, don't you have to question their finishing abilities?

In the end, this was another two points thrown away.  Particularly galling was Joselu's missed PK (Newcastle's first of the season) and his shot wide of the post in the second half.  The Burnley goal was another bit of bad play combined with bad luck.  On a corner, Burnley got not one but two heads (which are better than one) on the ball. Darlow made a decent save on the second one but pushed the ball towards the crossbar; it caromed off the underside, right back at him and bounced into the goal. 

Results elsewhere were mixed from a Newcastle relegation perspective.  Draws for Southampton (vs Brighton 1-1), Stoke (0-0 vs Watford) and West Ham (1-1 vs Crystal Palace) were probably good things.  That last was a mildly boring affair given Crystal Palace's penchant for wild matches.  Clearly unhelpful were Chelsea's 0-3 home loss to Bournemouth and Arsenal's 1-3 loss to Swansea.  Michael B and other Spurs fans were ecstatic but really?  Didn't see either match so I can't say what went wrong for the favorites there.  At least Liverpool dispatch Huddersfield 3-0, which allowed Newcastle to move up a place in the standings, and Man City was not too troubled by West Brom in winning 3-0.


In the Northwest Philly Cycling Derby, Tottenham were surprisingly easy winners over Man United 2-0.  We didn't know it at the time but the match was over in just 11 seconds, as Eriksen scored before you could take your first sip of coffee.  We'll make it this week's
YouTubeableMoment; sorry Jeff H, I'll try to get a Jesse Lingard video in sometime this year.  Actually Jeff may be more dismayed that by rule, the goal shouldn't have counted.  As you can see from the picture, Harry Kane was in the Manchester United half of the field when the ball was kicked off.  Only the player taking the kick-off is allowed to be in the opposing half of the field; the kick-off should have been retaken.  I will give the Special One credit here; Mourinho focused on his team's lackluster play than an infringement.


More FA Cup

The EPL games were held midweek because the weekend was given over to the 4th Round of the FA Cup.  We can quickly dispatch with discussion about Newcastle, as they fell rather easily to Chelsea 0-3 at Stamford Bridge.  Wait 'til next year, blah, blah, blah.

But there was entertaining stuff elsewhere, perhaps none more than the Liverpool-West Brom VAR fest.  Firmino gave the hosts a quick 1-0 lead at 5 minutes but a double from Jay Rodriguez at 7 and 11 minutes put the Baggies up.  They could have been up 3-1 but Dawson's header goal was ruled offside (correctly) after VAR review.  Not too much later, VAR came into play again as referee Craig Pawson did not award a PK for a foul in the box against Salah but VAR Andre Marriner signaled to Pawson that he might have missed it.  After reviewing the video, Pawson agreed and awarded the PK, which Firmino promptly missed.  An own goal from Matip in first half stoppage time did make it 3-1.   A 78th minute goal from Salah meant it was tight until the finish but West Brom held on for the upset.

Was the VAR a disruption?  Probably a little bit.  The delay on the PK was about four minutes.  The other times (West Brom's third goal was reviewed too) not so bad.  Maybe I'm just used to the excessive delays in the NFL so it didn't seem awful to me and the VAR did result in the correct calls.  For Alan Pardew to hint that Kieran Gibbs' hamstring injury was a result of the four minute delay is, well, very Pardewish.  There are occasionally lengthy stoppages for serious injuries, or just bad acting, so it's not like it never happens.  In a sport where goals are infrequent, I would rather see them sacrifice a little flow for getting it right.

By my count there were three other upsets in the fourth round.  Likely the biggest was West Ham losing to Wigan 0-2.  Less earth shattering were Southampton 1-0 over Watford and Coventry 1-0 at  MK Dons.  Some of the draws raised eyebrows as well, like Spurs 1-1 at Newport County.  Huddersfield 1-1 to Birmingham and Swansea 1-1 to Notts County probably weren't too well received by their fans either.  Overall, the League Two sides managed a win and two draws against one loss; but the replays will be away matches so maybe the final tally will include three losses. 


Recertified

As long as my hip holds up, I am cleared for another year of refereeing.  The class got a little frustrating as we spent 15 minutes discussing the restart if both the keeper and the kicker commit an infraction on a PK if the kick is successful.  Correct answer - disallow goal, indirect kick from the spot of the kicker's infraction, yellow card for the kicker.  But you knew that, right?  If the kick is missed, it is retaken and both the keeper and kicker get cards.  People got hung up on why the keeper doesn't get a caution too if the kick is good.  Two reasons.  One, if the goal was scored, the keeper's infringement was unsuccessful so there is no infringement.  Two, that's what the rules say.  Can we move on please?


Six Point Matches

Looking at the weekend, I'd say there are five "six-point" matches between sides close to each other in the standings; four are in the relegation fight category while the other is for Champions League.

Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN) is the big one - Liverpool vs Tottenham.  Spurs sit 5th in the table, two points back of both Liverpool and Chelsea so a win would put them third or fourth.   Spurs have been more consistent (unbeaten in last seven) while Liverpool more, shall we say, mercurial (win over Man City but loss to Swansea). 

Down in trenches we have Bournemouth-Stoke, Brighton-West Ham, West Brom-Southampton and Crystal Palace-Newcastle.  Unless every one of these ends in a draw, the relegation picture will change.  The Newcastle match will be televised - Sunday at 9:15 on NBCSN; might be entertaining if not high quality.   Why is everybody in Philly rooting for Crystal Palace? All I see are Go Eagles signs.  Oh. Never mind.

The Manchester sides have matches that affect relegation too, with City traveling to Burnley and United hosting Huddersfield.  And Arsenal have a tough match versus Everton (Saturday 12:30 on NBC); unless the Gunners wake up and smell the coffee, Champions League may be gone for a second year in a row.

Let's hope that the "raving lunatics" on both sides of the Atlantic are happy with Sunday's results.

Don't Look Back - Something Might Be Gaining On You

HOF pitcher Satchel Paige's admonition certainly applies to Newcastle.  Four of the five teams behind them picked up points while the Magpies were losing 1-3 to Manchester City.  Aguero got a hat trick and scored something like his 57th goal vs the Magpies (actual number is 14 goals in 12 games - just feels like more).  Jacob Murphy got a decent tally that briefly threatened to make it a contest but the Citizens are just in another league from the Magpies.

Jacob Murphy scores Newcastle's lone goal vs Man City

The Newcastle result was hardly unexpected and not even that awful a match.  But some of the other scores were a surprise.  West Brom getting a draw with Everton at Goodison Park?  Southampton taking a point from Spurs?  And Swansea beating Liverpool?  Not helpful.  I guess Stoke 2-0 over Huddersfield isn't completely out of left field.  Only Brighton, 0-4 losers to Chelsea failed to gain ground on Newcastle.


Buzz Kill

Graham, Michael B and I went to the Philadelphia Racquet Club Saturday morning for a Starfinder fund raiser for youth soccer.   After finishing a robust English breakfast we settled in for the Arsenal - Crystal Palace match; we were even properly decked out with Crystal Palace gear collected on our 2016 trip.  So Arsenal score at 6, 10, 13 and 22 minutes, making a mockery of the match.  Way to take the fun out of the event, Gunners.  Union center back Jack Elliott's half-time analysis focused more on Crystal Palace shortcomings than Arsenal prowess.  By unanimous vote, we opted to switch to Burnley-Manchester United (a tight 1-0 win for the Red Devils) for the second half.  At least we got a good breakfast and helped out a good cause.


We Are All Relegation Candidates Now

Or just about. Three points separate 15th through 20th.  There's just six points between 10th and 20th.  And with Everton back in a slump (9th but just six points above the drop zone), 538 Soccer now has them with a measurable relegation chance too.  So we have mid-table consisting of Leicester and Burnley at 34 points.  Even 2nd through 6th isn't all that tight.  Arsenal are five points out of 4th, and 11 points behind second place Man United.  There will likely be some interesting jockeying for the last three Champions League positions but clearly the more "competitive" race is the one to stay up.


Raving Lunatics 

Noted manager Ted Lasso, seeking American comparables for English teams heard that Newcastle fans were "raving lunatics."  This led him to associate Newcastle with the Philadelphia Eagles.  The similarities maybe be stronger - and scarier - than he realized.  A few years ago, a Newcastle fan was arrested for punching a horse after the Magpies lost 0-3 to bitter rivals Sunderland.  Sunday an Eagles fan was arrested for punching a horse.  However, this was three hours before the game and was the second incident of horse punching this playoff season.  And the Eagles won these games.   As far as I can tell, the horses were not hurt in these incidents.  Raving lunatics indeed.


Funky Blues

Inconsistent efforts from Chester recently.  A 6-1 pasting of Stoke followed by a 1-1 draw to Leeds.  Then a horrendous 1-4 performance against Chelsea in the second leg of the League Cup semi-final which crashed us out of that competition on a 4-7 aggregate score; the fans were not pleased but fortunately the League Cup was low on the board's priority list. We have rebounded a bit with consecutive 5-0 wins - albeit against weaker sides - and some tactical tweaks seemed to be making a difference; we've gone to a slightly more attacking formation and some more careful individual instructions have cut down on the fouls.  Hopefully we have fixed things in advance of matches with Liverpool and Man United.  Dennis notes that the real Chester are in danger of dropping to the sixth tier of English football; that's what you get for going with an experienced manager over a Football Manager manager.


If You Still Care

Arsenal (2-1 over Chelsea) and Man City (5-3 over Bristol City) were winners in the Carabao League Cup semi-finals.  They will meet on February 25th in the final.  Mark your calendars accordingly.



Glacial Transfer Action Tyneside

The Alexis Sanchez move to Man United was completed, with Henrkh Mkhitaryan going from the Red Devils to Arsenal.  The Gunners are said to be close to bringing on Gabonese striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. You can see a list of completed deals here.  No that's not a typo, Newcastle actually did make a move.  And no, that's not a typo either; his name is indeed spelled Kenedy.  As I said before, more than simply rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic as he will add speed and flexibility to the squad.  But it doesn't seem like enough given Newcastle's situation.  Other names are regularly bandied about but Newcastle never seem to be willing to meet the asking price. 


More FA Cup and Mid-week Matches

The weekend is given over to 4th Round FA Cup matches.  Once again, the charm of the no seeding policy has resulted in pairings that differ vastly in their degree of difficulty.  If you rank the sides from 1 to 32 based on their current standings you can see some of the wild spreads.  The toughest match up is Chelsea -Newcastle, which is 3 vs 10; you can see that one Sunday at 8:30 on FS1.  Another difficult one - based on these numbers anyway - is Cardiff hosting Man City; this is 1 vs 15, which is on FS2 Sunday at 11.  So Man City sort of got screwed here but hard to imagine it will matter.  Third toughest using this approach is Liverpool -West Brom at 4 vs 13; this will be on FS2 at 2:45 Saturday.

At the other end of the spectrum, there is MK Dons hosting Coventry or 27 vs 30; no coverage for that one.  Other softies include Millwall - Rochdale, which is 20 vs 28 and no TV coverage and Notting County hosting Swansea or 29 vs 14 - no coverage there either.  The other TV games include:

Yeovil - Man United (2:55 on Friday FS1)  this is 32 vs 2
Peterborough - Leicester (7:30 on Saturday FS1) this is 26 vs 6
Wigan - West Ham  (10am Saturday on FS2) this is 25 vs 8
Newport County - Spurs (12:30 on Saturday FS1) this is 31 vs 5

Actually those four matches look about right from a seeding perspective.  I have my annual referee recertification clinic on Saturday so I'll be playing catch up all weekend.

As I noted last week, everybody in the EPL gets a midweek match on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Not a scintillating slate but there is Tottenham - Man United at Wembley on Wednesday at 3 pm (NBCSN).  Tuesday's TV match is Huddersfield - Liverpool at 3 pm (also NBCSN).  Newcastle have Burnley at home, which I'd like to think might get us a point but not optimistic. Some "six point" matches for the relegation candidates include West Ham - Crystal Palace, Southampton-Brighton and Stoke - Watford.

With the midweek games, pay attention to the squads that managers field for the weekend FA Cup matches.  I'll be interested to see what Rafa does with Newcastle; I would expect he'd field a team with an eye towards getting a result on Wednesday against Burnley as opposed to pulling off an upset against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  And what of the other clubs in the relegation fight like West Ham who must turn around and face Crystal Palace on Tuesday?  Coming at it from the other direction, do Swansea go for the FA Cup win against lowly Notting County, knowing that they face a tough match against Arsenal on Tuesday?  Like I said, check out the line ups to see where the FA Cup fits in a team's priorities.


Wow, Union scheduled to open in just over 5 weeks.  Distressingly quiet on the roster change side, other than adding David Accam.  I do like this quote from mlssoccer though:

 A quick forward capable of wreaking havoc from wide positions

That's encouraging.  But like with Newcastle, I think more needs to be done.  Getting late for both.