Is It the Run-in Yet?

Michael B and I have this debate as to when the "run-in" - the final stretch of the EPL fixtures - starts.  There seems to be no definition.  With almost a quarter of the season left, I think it's too soon but I have seen several newspapers handicapping the run-in this week.  Regardless of when it starts, this year's run-in has plenty to watch as four teams are competing for three Champions League spots and at least eight sides are at some risk of relegation.


No Surprise

 Lascelles was lucky to get away with this.
 Photograph: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

Newcastle's match at Anfield went about as well - or poorly - as we expected.  The Magpies generated precious few chances in the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool.  The best news from this match might be that Jamaal Lascelles did not get a red card - or even a foul - for bringing down Mo Salah on the edge of the box as time expired (see picture); the Newcastle captain would have been looking at a three-match suspension at exactly the wrong point in the schedule.

Elsewhere there was a decidedly mixed bag of results from a Newcastle-not-getting-relegated perspective.  Swansea grabbed all three points from West Ham and slipped past the Magpies in the standings.  Brighton continued Arsenal's nightmare of a season with a 2-1 win over the Gunners and have pretty much put to bed their chance of relegation.  Bournemouth nicked a point off Leicester at home but the Cherries were already counting the three points before an incredible  Riyad Mahrez free kick in the 97th minute leveled things; after Bournemouth's late game antics against Newcastle the week before, don't look for any sympathy for me.  Spurs were Magpie-friendly with a steady 2-0 win over Huddersfield.  The 0-0 draw between Stoke and Southampton highlighted the finishing problems that plague most of the relegation-threatened teams; the draw was helpful to Newcastle since neither picked up the three points.

Totally conflicted as I watched the heartbreaker of a match at Selhurst Park.  With Crystal Palace shockingly up 2-0 on Man United, all I could see was a key relegation competitor getting an unexpected three points.  As Man United scored their first goal, I was making a deal with myself that, even though I really like Crystal Palace and don't have much love for Mourinho, rooting for a draw would be acceptable. Of course, once Lukaku leveled things at 76 minutes, the Red Devils sensed the blood in the water.  Sure enough, there was Nemenja Matic stuffing the game winner in at 91 minutes.  Jeff H will be thrilled as Man United get a second straight YouTubeableMoment (you might say it was an auto Matic pick).  Great moment in the telecast when the camera focused in on the raucous Eagle fans reveling in the 2-0 lead; the announcer quickly pointed out the fans would have been as vocal even if the score was 0-3.

Probably should mention that Man City handled Chelsea 1-0 at home.  Conte did many of the same things that Benitez did to slow Man City down and got the same result.  Commentators however suggested it was one thing for Newcastle to take a defensive approach but an entirely different thing for a top team like Chelsea to do so.  Maybe, but protecting your goal differential in a tight table makes sense to me.


BFS Run-in Predictor

Maybe the definition of the run-in should be when I feel like there are few enough games left that it's not an overwhelming task to set up an EPL prediction spreadsheet.  Which means we are at the run-in because I just finished spreadsheet.  Simple enough to do, just assign win, lose or draw for each match.  I ran a few scenarios myself then, looked at the 538 match-by-match projections.  Happy to say there were no matches where I had one side winning and 538 the other.  However, they don't project any matches as draws so there were some differences based on that.  In some cases I saw a close match and they saw a clear winner; many others though they saw as close too.

Some notable trends emerged as I ran through the possibilities:

1. Man City will win the EPL (effing brilliant Captain Obvious)
2. In all the scenarios, Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham get the other three CL spots; Liverpool beat out Spurs every time but Man United finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on how they do against Liverpool and Man City
3. West Brom go down every time (see comment on 1)
4. The last two relegation spots usually go to Stoke or Southampton but West Ham and, gulp, Newcastle occasionally pop up; Swansea, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace don't show up in the bottom three but are never more than a few points from the drop zone, meaning one wrong projection and they are in the mix

I'll be updating with actual results so we'll see how this goes.


European Stuff

The EPL sent two teams onto the Champions League quarterfinals as Man City and Liverpool easily completed the second legs of their series.  Tottenham was looking pretty good at 1-0 before Juventus slipped in two quick tallies at 64 and 67 minutes.  A disappointing result, especially given they had the lead, but hard to find too much fault with their effort.  Man United and Chelsea have their chances next week.  Arsenal woke up from their nightmare long enough to take a 2-0 win in the first leg of their Europa Cup round of 16 tie with AC Milan; with the second leg at the Emirates, the Gunners look good to advance.


Union Top of the Table

What the kool keepers are wearing - Photo Daniel Gajdamowicz

Jeff H has provided a solid summary of the 2-0 win over the Revolution in last week's comment section.  The cold water people will point out that the Revolution aren't expected to set the league on fire and that the Union played more than 60 minutes a man up but could only score twice.  True enough but there were some positive takeaways.  First, we might not be the slowest team any more. Trusty chased down Agudelo and made a tackle that, if not properly executed, is probably a red card.  And Cory Burke, signed from Bethlehem, was a revelation as well.  They probably will play even better with Dockal in the #10 role.  Downside - CJ missed a lot of chances and not sure that our fullback core is that strong or deep.   Did you notice the Andre Blake's neckware to combat the frigid conditions? Either that or he was in a car accident(see photo).  Didn't hinder his performance and he was typically solid between the posts.


Keyest Match of the Year?

Newcastle take on Southampton at St. James' Park on Saturday at 10; the TV people understand the importance as it's on NBCSN.  A win for either side would vastly change their relegation outlooks.  A loss would not be crushing but would be a lost opportunity.  So many Magpie people are talking about the need for - and likelihood of - three points; indeed a win would be a massive step away from relegation but I'm not looking for more than a draw here.

That match comes on after a cracking start to the weekend - Man United vs Liverpool at Old Trafford (7:30 NBCSN).  Liverpool probably need to win if they hope to finish second but even a loss likely won't seriously damage their chances of a top four finish.  Even a draw gives Man United a slight advantage in the race for second.

Most of the other matches feature top table teams versus relegation challengers, which means I have no use for underdogs this weekend.  So Man City (vs Stoke - Monday at 4 pm), Chelsea (vs Crystal Palace - 12:30 Saturday), Tottenham (vs Bournemouth - noon on Sunday) and Arsenal (vs Watford - 9:30 on Sunday), please take care of business.  I'll throw Burnley (7th in the table!) in this group and hope they can beat West Ham.

We do have Huddersfield - Swansea on Saturday at 10 am (NBC Gold).  This strategic rooting is hard to sort out sometimes.  A draw isn't awful but since Swansea are the more likely competition with Newcastle to stay up, I think I prefer Huddersfield to win.  Everton and Brighton are both just about over the line but a win pretty much seals the deal for one of those teams.

Btw, those odd starting times on Sunday and Monday come about because we spring forward earlier than the English.

The MLS, in its infinite wisdom, has elected to field a league with 23 teams.  The more mathematically inclined may notice that this is an odd number (it's strange too) which means one MLS team is idle even with a full schedule.  Between that and Concacaf Champions League action, the early season schedule is very choppy.  In short, the Union are idle this weekend. 

Don't forget Champions League and Europa Cup action midweek.  Check your local listings as they say but pretty sure Fox Sports (1 or 2 or others) will have the matches.