Mediocrity Will Out

Dan Gosling cuts the deficit in half

Very strange to see Newcastle up on Bournemouth 2-0 at half time of Saturday's match.  Not that they didn't deserve it but a shock nonetheless.  In response to the idle question on my part as to how many minutes this season had the Magpies enjoyed a two goal lead, BFS Director of Operations Research Dennis quickly provided the answer - 26 minutes (18 and 8 in the two matches against West Ham).  But Newcastle with a two goal lead is like me with a birdie or two on the front nine; things will even out and I will not break 90.  Sure enough, the Magpies surrendered goals in the 80th and 89th minute to snatch a draw from the jaws of victory.  In fact, they were in serious danger of coughing up a third goal and getting no points.  Somewhat galling were the missed opportunities that could have made it 3-0 or even 4-0 which did indeed come back to haunt them.  Post match, Dennis provided proper perspective; standing on the first tee I would have gladly taken a 2-2 draw and he's right.

There were draws for others in the relegation fight as well - Stoke went 1-1 with Leicester and Southampton 1-1 with Burnley.  Brighton and Huddersfield got big boosts with wins over Swansea and West Brom respectively.  Crystal Palace looked ready to nick a point off Tottenham but Harry Kane's late header scotched that plan.  Not a terrible set of results for Newcastle, just would have been better with three points instead of one.  The 538 prediction has the Magpies down to just an 18% chance of being relegated, the lowest I can remember since I started checking it.

Liverpool "hammered" West Ham 4-1 while Manchester United came back from 0-1 to get a 2-1 win over Chelsea in a very entertaining match. Jeff H, here's what you've been waiting for - Jesse Lingard as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A more than worthy game winner.  The weekend matches leave Chelsea on the outside looking in at the top four but just six points separate 2nd through 5th so this thing ain't over yet.


Cloak of Inevitability

Announcer Peter Drury was referring to the result of the Arsenal-Man City midweek league match after the Citizens went up 3-0 when he uttered this phrase but it may apply to their season more broadly.  With the EPL win over Arsenal, they maintain the 16-point lead; any combination of 15 points earned by Man City or dropped by Man United in the final 10 games clinches the title.   Over the weekend, they easily captured the Carabao League Cup (thrashing Arsenal in that one as well). And, in Champions League, they bring a 4-1 lead to the second leg of their tie with Basel; the quarter finals beckon.


The Trials of VAR

Snow globe dream for Llorente

Those who tuned in for the Tottenham-Rochdale saw an, ahem, interesting match, which is not the same as a great match.  First, it was like watching soccer in a snow globe.  Precipitation was heavy enough that you could follow the passes in the tracks of snow.  Btw, English weather forecasting tip - if the pitch is lined in blue rather than white, expect snow.  Second, Spurs blew open a tight contest (1-1 at half) with five second half goals.  Killed the suspense but we suspect that Fernando Llorente's confidence really needed that hat trick. But mostly what people talked about was "VARmageddon" (as one pundit labeled it) - the oversized role that video assistant referee played in the first half.

The reviews were mostly unkind though I did find some willing to defend the system.  A partial list of the VAR decisions includes:

- ruling out Tottenham goal due to foul by Llorente
- not awarding a PK after Moura was possibly fouled in the box
- changing a free kick to a PK as the holding on Trippier continued into the box
- disallowing Son's PK due to feinting after the run-up was completed

VAR was also consulted on all the goals that did count.  With the possible exception of the non-call on Moura, the consensus seems to be that VAR did result in the right decision.  Note that with respect to penalty kicks, the laws state that play is stopped and restarted with an indirect free kick, regardless of whether a goal is scored, when there is "feinting to kick the ball once the kicker has completed the run-up( feinting in the run-up is permitted)."  The rules specifically say the kicker should be cautioned (i.e be shown the yellow card).  Sure looked like Son got to the ball, then stopped. And even though players from both sides encroached into the penalty area, Son's offense is the more serious so the correct restart was indeed the indirect free kick coming out.

No, the ire seems directed more at the length of time required for the VAR process to play out.  To some extent these complaints are legitimate; the worst was how long it took to revise the free kick to a PK.  This feels like another case of the perfect being the enemy of the good.  The stated purpose of VAR is to correct "clear and obvious errors" not to eliminate all incorrect calls.  If it takes you more than 30 seconds of reviewing the tape to determine if it is a clear and obvious error, by definition, it is not.

However, to those on the fainting couch about how VAR will be the destruction of football as we know it, please take a deep breath.  First, it is a work in progress.  I do agree that they'll need to learn to make the decisions quicker but that may just be a matter of experience.  Second, the protests against stoppages in the flow of play ring a bit hollow.  Most of the decisions will be after a goal has been scored.  The time spent primping, preening and completing choreographed celebrations should allow for enough time for the review to take place. Sometimes the review actually takes place as play continues.  But mostly, it's not like stoppages never occur.  Sometimes it is for real injuries but how often is the game stopped for imaginary blows to the face or other fake injuries?  The game was not perfect or pure before VAR.


Baloney Again? (with apologies to Mark Knopfler)

Hope is supposed to spring eternal but sometimes it just doesn't feel that way.  The Union season will kick off on Saturday with a home match against the Revolution with generally low expectations.  The team has added some players that could make a difference, including forward David Accam, midfielder Borek Dockal and defender Auston Trusty.  We'll get the obvious line out of the way early - who doesn't want a trusty defender.  But seriously, they do come highly recommended, especially Accam and Dockal.  Still most of the projections don't sound too good.

Quotes like "haven't done enough to do that [make the playoffs]" (World Soccer Talk) and "hard to see this club making the playoffs" (NBC Sports) litter the landscape.  The preview at mlssoccer.com has them finishing 11th (last) in the Eastern Conference, though that was before the Dockal signing.  ESPN offered a more positive tone saying the Union have "one of the most attractive forward lines in MLS and could make some noise in the East."  Doesn't say what that noise is though.  Of all the previews I read, this was my favorite.  Great detail on the players and suggests some of the upside of developing young players.  He has the Union finishing anywhere from 4th to 8th but believes the most likely scenario is "about seventh in the East, just outside the playoffs, again."  Yeah, baloney again.


Chester Clinch Third Straight

It's early April in the Football Manager calendar and Chester have clinched their third straight Premier League title with a 6-2 win over Burnley.  As the league title looked pretty inevitable, our attentions have been much more on Champions League and the FA Cup.  Chances in the CL took a bit of a hit with a 1-1 home draw against Atletico Madrid.  Neither side generated much in the way of good scoring opportunities and it was a close match.  But heading to Vicente Calderon Stadium (my game has no way of knowing they built a new stadium) tied and having surrendered an away goal does not bode well for our chances.


We Might Walk Alone

Newcastle have Liverpool at Anfield in the featured 12:30 NBC match except that for some reason, it's on NBCSN.  There's no reason to expect any points from this match but I do remember that Newcastle won [drew] this fixture in May 2016 even as they were heading down to the Championship division.  Grabbing a point would be awesome.

Tottenham - Huddersfield is the 10 am Saturday NBCSN match but I'll probably go with the alternative Southampton-Stoke City relegation matchup at the same time on CNBC.  Another relegation-relevant match at 10 is Swansea - West Ham but you'll need NBC Gold to watch that.  Having a little trouble seeing myself up at 7:30 on Saturday to catch Burnley - Everton; with neither relegation or European football in their apparent futures, it's not clear how compelling this match will be.

Sunday's televised matches may provoke a little more curiousity.  At 8:30 Brighton host Arsenal; very interested to see if the Gunners pick themselves up from consecutive schoolings by Man City and deal with an opponent they should be able to beat.  Certainly Newcastle fans would appreciate that.  The later match is Man City hosting Chelsea; interested to see if Chelsea rebounds from the loss to Man United.  If they are not careful, they could be five points out of the last Champions League spot.  The TV schedule concludes Monday with another match at Selhurst Park - Crystal Palace hosting Man United.

Plenty of MLS action to watch, including the Union opener on Saturday at 7 pm on PHL-17.  Looks like it will be a toasty 35 degrees by the end.  Not my turn to use the season tickets so Jeff and Graham will have to bundle up for that one.

Don't forget the second leg of the Champions League ties as well.  Tuesday has Liverpool-Porto and PSG - Real Madrid while Wednesday has Tottenham - Juventus and Man City -Basel.  The Liverpool and Man City ties don't look all that competitive but the other two should be excellent.

Man, I gotta fit all this in around the IAAF World Championships.