Here We Go

 

As in "With Eddie Howe gone and the midfield decimated, Steve approached Newcastle's coming EPL season with much trepidation."

Last Minute Transfers

Gonzalez would be a big help in midfield
Photo: Kieran McManus/Shutterstock

Newcastle continue to try to fill holes where they can.  Amar Dedic looks like good value at right back.  He has basically the same skill set as Livramento and is not overpriced at $40m.  There was talk about  bringing in Carlos Baleba or Joao Palhinha to shore up the midfield but those rumors have faded away.  Given that neither was anything close to a replacement for Tonali or Guimaraes and Baleba's price tag was ridiculous and he's currently injured, I view this as a good thing.  Now I'm reading about the possibility of signing Nico Gonzalez from Man City.  I didn't see a $ attached to the potential deal but signing him might reduce some of my trepidation.

Live Table

Apparently the last tie breaker is alphabetical...

Projections

Once again I've loaded a pile of pundit projections into a spreadsheet to see what the collective thinking is for the season.  Here's the table:

I couldn't find projections from last year's winner Ninad Barbadikar but recall that "Average" was the second most accurate.  The Athletic was third.  Two years ago, Average finished third behind Opta and Pinnacle.

Incredible to me that almost every projection has Arsenal first.  Not that it's a terrible pick, just that nobody disagrees.  Man City is clearly a consensus number two.  Third through fifth are tight between Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United.  Aston Villa and Spurs are the picks for the consolation European competition spots.  

The pundits don't see much hope for the newly promoted sides.  Hull are picked by all but one to finish last. Ipswich get 18 or 19 in every pick but one.  Coventry get a little love but most still see them heading down as well.  Sunderland and Fulham look like the only challengers for relegation.

Biggest divergence across the projections is for Nottingham Forest (6th! to 18th).  Newcastle are second biggest with a range of 6th to 17th.  The average puts the Magpies in 9th but this is kind of like head in the oven and feet in the freezer - some see a decent upper mid-table finish but others see a potential relegation battle.  Right now the relegation battle looks more likely.  Others with big spreads include Brentford (7th to 17th), Bournemouth (6th to 16th) and Sunderland (10th to 20th).  

Union Exception To Two Goal Lead Rule?

Regular readers know that I put no stock in the view that a two goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer.  However, recent performances by the Union are making me consider an exception.  On Sunday, they came back from two goals down for the second game in a row for a 3-2 win.  

They had fallen behind NYCFC on two first half PKs.  The first was clear cut but I haven't seen a replay that convinces me that Vasilev was guilty of handling in the box for the second one.  No matter.  Danley JJ got the comeback started with putback goal at 48.  Then Damiani accepted passes on a silver platters from each of the Sullivan brothers for goals at 69 and 75 minutes to put the Union up 3-2.  You can see the two plays in this week's YouTubeableMoment (should open to about 68:10).  Damiani had to be precise but it was really about the quality of the passes from Cavan and Quinn.  Good on the brothers for not taking the shot but making the extra pass for the easier goal.  Jamie Tartt's father would be livid.  

He Ain't Messi, He's My Brother (apologies to The Hollies)

The Union's unbeaten MLS streak continued with a wild and raucous (and highly entertaining) 2-2 draw with Inter Miami on Wednesday night at a Subaru Park packed with far too many people in Messi jerseys.  The U got an early lead thanks to a Vasilev goal off a great cross from Westfield, who had been sprung by an insightful pass from Cavan Sullivan.  Miami countered with two of their own, arguably against the run of play; Messi keyed one of them with a great cross in the box, then got one of his own with a curler that Blake had no chance on.  To their credit, the Union did not wilt, got an equalizer in the second half from Pierre and actually had the better of play in the second half.  Missed chances however meant the final was 2-2.  The stats show the Union's dominance with shots 18/6, shots on target 8/3 and expected goals 3.5/1.6.  That last number highlights why we might be disappointed with the draw.

Cavan:Get your hands off my brother

For my money, Inter Miami was channeling their inner Argentina all night, going down much too easily on contact and feigning injury; I still think it should be a yellow if you grab a body part in pain that was never touched in the contact.  Referee Filip Dujic was far too willing to award free kicks (for both sides) for minimal contact.  Things finally boiled over late in stoppage time when Quinn Sullivan and Ian Fray (his name says altercation!) got tangled up in the box. The real fight ended up being between Yannick Bright and Cavan Sullivan, who quickly moved to stick up for his older brother.  Both got red cards and at that point, Dujic realized his best option was to blow the whistle for full-time.

So we have to say the Union passed this test, coming away with four points against NYCFC and Miami.  They are still 13th but are now just four points out of a playoff spot.   

Still A Travesty...

With new stadium under construction, days of soccer
at Yankee Stadium are mercifully numbered

...to see soccer played in Yankee Stadium.  It's too small, they have to put down sod on the infield and the fans on the near side are 100 miles from the pitch.  Dennis and I debated who hates the situation more - the Yankees or NYCFC.  We concluded that the answer is probably the people who have to convert the field between the two configurations.

What He Meant

Dennis provides the following translations of things actually said by TV commentators this weekend.

Announcer: The team chose to use their depth in mid-week Leagues Cup action

Dennis's translation: The team did not give a shit about the Leagues Cup and played the entire second team

Announcer: She's lucky to be on a team without a prolific scorer

Dennis's translation: On any other team, she would not get any playing time

The Weekend

First week fixtures are mostly a lot of top half contenders versus the bottom half.  We start with Arsenal hosting Coventry on Friday at 3 pm.  The Gunners are 80% favorites to win that one but hey, we'll watch anything on a Friday afternoon.  Not sure I feel the same way about getting up at 7:30 Saturday for Hull vs Man United.  The 10 am slot may have the more competitive fixtures of the weekend - Ipswich v Sunderland, Everton v Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest v Leeds.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 is a London Derby with Brentford hosting Spurs.  Totally surprised that Opta has Brentford favored at 41/34/25.  [Ed note: I'll be using that format to present Opta projections; the first number is percent likelihood the favorite wins, the second is the percent chance for the underdog and the third number is the chance of a draw.]  

Back at it early Sunday with Man City home to Bournemouth and Aston Villa heading to Brighton. Both are at 9 am but we'll go with the Villa game, for which they are surprisingly the underdogs (44/31/25).  The late Sunday fixture is Newcastle's home opener against Liverpool at 11:30.  I may be on delay for that as someone got me Phillies tickets.  Maybe for the best as the Magpies are significant underdogs (50/26/24).

Matchweek 1 concludes with another London Derby, this one pitting Fulham against Chelsea.

It's a quiet week for the Union, as they just have one match, away to Austin on Saturday at 8:30.  The hosts do have a worse record than the Union who are slight favorites (44/31/25) but this is an away match at the end of a congested stretch.  Hoping for the W but would take the D.

Let's do this!