Still In It

Not everything went our way but the week wasn't a disaster.

Unsurprising But Annoying Result

I didn't mention this last week but I was always concerned about the trip to Brighton.  We rarely do well there and Brighton were just as motivated as Newcastle to nail down a place in one of next year's European competition.  Thus, we were not surprised at all that the Magpies struggled to come away with a 1-1 draw.  

Third time's a charm; this PK call sticks (Photo:BBC)

What was annoying is that Newcastle arguably had the much better of play but simply could not put the ball in the net.  Possession was 55/45, shots were 13/5, shots on target 5/2 and xG 1.74/.7. Referee Craig Pawson tried to give Newcastle three PKs but VAR ruled out two of them, correctly in my opinion.  The first was a foul but it turned out to be outside the box and the second turned out to be a dive rather than foul.  At least the third one, for handling in the 89th minute, stood.  Taking into account the PK, the xG difference wasn't all the much.  And Brighton do defend well.  

The result wasn't much help to either team but it probably hurt Brighton more as Bournemouth and Brentford both got wins.

Useful But Boring Result

Yuri Tielemans scored in the 12th minute to earn Aston Villa a 1-0 win over visiting Fulham.  That's all that needs to be said except that I am so glad I got up at 7:30 to watch it.

Outies

Apparently, there is no Overtime Contingency that allows Spurs and Man United to play like their Europa Cup innies in EPL matches.  After big wins by their innies in Europa League last week, Man United and Spurs flipped to their outies right on schedule for their EPL matches.  Spurs scored early against West Ham but conceded the equalizer not long after and a 1-1 draw was the final; they remain a point ahead of the Hammers in 16th place.  Man United also scored first against Brentford, then conceded four unanswered goals before eventually falling 4-3.  They remain a point ahead of Spurs in 15th.  

Interesting But Confounding Results

The races for 2nd through 7th got more complicated after this weekend's fixtures.  Arsenal's 1-2 loss to Brentford combined with Man City's narrow 1-0 win over Wolves means that the Gunners are no longer a lock for second place.  Chelsea's win over over Liverpool combined with Newcastle's draw with Brighton is a lifeline for the Blues chances for a top five finish.  And slumping Nottingham Forest could only manage a draw with Crystal Palace, putting a serious dent in their top five hopes and maybe top six as well, given that Villa are just one point back now.  

Lucky But Welcome Result

I followed the Union's 2-1 win over Montreal on line, then watched the highlights and checked out the stats.  Seems like the U stole at least two and maybe three points.  After a 1-1 first half, on line all I saw was possession and shots for Montreal increasing the second half; I was fully prepared to see them take the lead.  Instead I was pleasantly surprised to see Uhre bag the game winner in the 84 minute.  Possession was 58/42, shots 14/8 and xG 1.8/.7 favor Montreal; the Union did have more shots on target at 4/3.  The good news is that it was the third straight win for Philly.  The bad news is that if you take a hard look at their performance in all three, you realize that they were a bit lucky in that 1) they didn't play all that great and 2) they were playing mediocre opposition.  We're nearly a third of the way through the season and I still don't have a sense of whether this team is good or not.  

The Union had a second match, their US Open Cup contest versus Indy Eleven.  They sent out a heavily rotated starting eleven, jumped to an early lead, then basically went flat.  Indy scored early in the second half and Carnell had to "unrotate" the lineup.  Though the U took control again, they did not score and the match proceeded to extra time, then PKs. The U squeaked by 5-4.  They will face the Pittsburgh River Hounds in the Round of 16 on Wednesday May 21.  

Champions League

Stay with for me a minute here, this is leading to a point.

Fact 1: I hate brussel sprouts

Fact 2: BFS Artistic Director Laura O is a great cook

Premise: If I don't like brussel sprouts even prepared by Laura, there's a good chance that I will never like them

Inter are going to the Champions League final

My point here is that if you watched the Inter-Barcelona Champions League semi-final and were not mesmerized, there's a good chance that you will never like soccer.  The first leg was crazy enough, ending at 3-3.  Inter took a 2-0 lead into the halftime lockerroom but Barcelona came back with goals at 54 and 60 minutes.  They looked like a lock to win it when Raphinha scored in the 87th minute.  Not so fast.  Francesco Acerbi tied it back up on the third minute of stoppage time.  You can see that goal here as this week's YouTubeableMoment Part I; yeah he got a yellow for taking the shirt off.  On to extra time and the 99th minute where Davide Fratessi scored the match winner for Inter.  You can see that here as this week's YouTubeableMoment Part II.  Okay, maybe the best view of the goal but this video does capture the emotion of the moment.  Best Champions League semi of all time?  The debate is underway.

The other semi-final is in no danger of making that list.  A sleepy 1-0 first leg left Arsenal needing a win in Paris.  And they certainly came out firing.  PSG can thank keeper Donnarumma for preserving the fragile lead in those opening 20 minutes.  Perhaps it was inevitable that the one-way attacking would leave the Gunners open to a goal against the run of play and it did indeed happen at 27 minutes.  Another goal at 72 minutes meant that Saka's goal at 72 was mere consolation.  

Outies!

This is getting too predictable.  The Europa Cup whistle blows and Spurs and Man United snap into their outie personalities.  Spurs took care of Bodo/Glimt 2-0 for a 5-1 aggregate win while United buried Athletic Club 4-1 for a 7-1 win on aggregate.

The two outies will meet on Wednesday May 21 for the Europa Cup title, which means that the EPL will have six in next year's Champions League.  Note that this does not change any of the regular qualifying process as neither of these teams will finish high enough to earn a place through the regular season standings.  

Chelsea, which don't seem to have a Severance issue, advanced to the Europa Conference League final with a 1-0 win in the second leg of their semi-final against Djugarden; the aggregate score was 5-1.  They'll face Real Betis on Wednesday May 28.  

The Race For Europe

Here is the updated analysis from ESPN on who can make one of the three European competitions next year.  The biggest news is that with the Spurs - Man United Europa Cup final, the EPL will have nine teams competing next year.  Ten is still a possibility if Crystal Palace were to beat Man City in the FA Cup Final.  However, if I read the article correctly, unless you qualify through some other route, you'll need to finish at least 8th in the EPL table to have a shot at Europe.

Matches That Matter

There are still some of those left.  In fact, 8 of the 10 matches have at least some relevance to spots in next year's European competitions.

The big one is Newcastle - Chelsea at St. James' Park Sunday morning at 7 am (?).  The two are level on points and goal differential, with Newcastle holding the advantage due to four more goals scored.  The winner takes a stranglehold on fourth place while the loser will be left to fight it out for 5th-7th.  

Second most important is Bournemouth - Aston Villa, the 12:30 feature match on Saturday.  Villa clinch at least 7th place with a win and keep themselves alive for a Champions League spot.  Bournemouth are currently 8th, which might be good enough for Europa Conference League, but a loss leaves them vulnerable to Brentford, Brighton and Fulham.  I am surprised to see that Opta has the Cherries as a slight favorite (41/34/25) for this one; I guess that's just the home field advantage.  

The Saturday 10 am slot has four matches that are relevant.  Fulham - Everton, Ipswich - Brentford, and Wolves - Brighton are still clinging to a chance at 8th place.  Man City have a perfect opportunity to bolster their hopes of a third or even second place finish as they travel to Southampton to face a team with two wins and five draws all season.  We'll probably go with Wolves - Brighton as that looks the most competitive.

The Sunday 9:15 slot has three matches but it's an easy choice. Nottingham Forest have a chance to stop the bleeding and maybe slide back into the top five as they host Leicester.  The other two matches have no relevance - Man United vs West Ham and Spurs vs Crystal Palace.

And technically, Liverpool versus Arsenal (Sunday 11:30) could affect the placements as the Gunners have not officially clinched a top five spot yet.  

Saturday is a big test for the Union as they host the first place Columbus Crew at 7:30.  A win would be enough to take over first but I'd be thrilled with a draw.