Thursday, May 29, 2025

Backing In

Classic Newcastle.  They could have simply beaten Everton to get a Champions League spot but instead lost 0-1 and had to sweat out Aston Villa's 0-2 loss at Man United.  The Union cough up another lead but then steal one back on Wednesday.


Drama to the End

Newcastle and Aston Villa contrived to create drama in the final 45 minutes of the season as they raced their way to the bottom (well, 6th place).  Villa won but barely.

With Man City and Chelsea on their way to wins over Fulham and Nottingham Forest respectively, Newcastle and Aston Villa were locked in 0-0 contests of their own versus Everton and Man United.  That meant they were level on points but Newcastle had a hefty advantage on goal differential so the Magpies still owned the last CL spot.  Villa's position looked the more suspect, as they were playing a man down after Emi Martinez got sent off late in the first half for DOGSO; plus, they had been thoroughly dominated in the first half.  Newcastle, on the other hand, had looked fully capable of scoring against Everton.

How about some love for Eddie Howe as Manager of the Year?
So of course, the Magpies yielded a goal in the 65th minute, not entirely against the run of play, which put Villa into the CL.  That position looked even more solid a few minutes later when Morgan Rogers took the ball from the Man United keeper Altay Bayindir and scored to give Villa a 1-0 lead.  Except that referee Thomas Bramall had called a foul on Rogers, believing the keeper had control of the ball.  More significantly, he had blown the whistle, which meant VAR could not get involved.  More on that (and the DOGSO below).  Things got worse for Villa when United scored a few minutes later.  Now they were back level on points with Newcastle and out of the Champions League.  A late penalty made the margin 2-0.  Meanwhile, Newcastle, probably with a sense of let's not completely back into this, had some more chances but could not break through and lost 0-1.  As noted football pundit Rosie Perez says, sometimes when you lose, you actually win.  Certainly Magpie fans would have preferred making it with a result in this match but it doesn't take away from the great campaign Newcastle put together.  


A $100 Million Call?

DSOGSO - Denial of Sort of Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity
Hojlund can probably put it in the empty net (Photo:BBC)

So about those calls in the Villa match.  We'll start with the DOGSO on Martinez.  Matty Cash made an ill-advised back pass that was intercepted by Hojlund, who now had a clear path to the goal.  Martinez made the choice to basically block tackle Hojland right out of the play.  The call on the field was red but I wasn't sure about it at first.  The argument was that once Hojlund was past Martinez, the goal was wide open.  I wasn't convinced it was that easy.  The still shot (left) leaves me thinking it was probably the right call.

The one that caused the big stink was when Morgan Rogers nicked the ball away from keeper Altay Bayindir and slipped it into the goal for a Villa 1-0 lead.  Except referee Thomas Bramall had blown the whistle for a supposed foul by Rogers on Bayindir.  You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  

The laws of the game are fairly generous about when the keeper is in control of the ball:

A goalkeeper is considered to be in control of the ball with the hand(s) when:

  • the ball is between the hands or between the hand and any surface (e.g. ground, own body) or by touching it with any part of the hands or arms except if the ball rebounds from the goalkeeper or the goalkeeper has made a save
  • holding the ball in the outstretched open hand
  • bouncing it on the ground or throwing it in the air
  • A goalkeeper cannot be challenged by an opponent when in control of the ball with the hand (s)

Bayindir is not touching the ball when Rogers kicks it away
Bayindir did have "control" at several points in the play but not at the moment when Rogers kicked it away.  A VAR check would have likely suggested Bramall go to the monitor, at which point, he would have seen his mistake.  But that was not possible because he had blown the whistle, which meant the ball was dead and anything that happened thereafter was irrelevant.  I saw some headlines that this was a VAR failure, which it was not.  The rules are very clear and I would be interested to hear a defense of using VAR after the whistle has blown; yes let's speculate on what might have happened had the whistle not blown.  The other criticism was that Bramall needed to hold off on the whistle to see how the situation played out, knowing he could use VAR to sort it out afterwards.  That would mirror the advice to assistant referees on keeping the flag down on close offside calls and reviewing the play afterwards.  I get it but sounds easier in theory than in practice when it involves a foul.  

As for the claim that the call cost Villa $100 million or more in lost revenue from not making the Champions League, I note that 1) United ran them ragged in the first half, 2) Villa managed just one shot on target and 3) xG was 2.94-.36.  Even if we give Villa a big chunk for the disallowed goal, they were mostly outplayed.  Also, there were plenty of dropped points along the way so enough of that argument.


Participation Trophy?

So Chelsea got their cup.  They came back from 0-1 to defeat Real Betis in the Europa Conference League final.  It is a UEFA trophy but as the third tier of European football, it's not clear if it really qualifies as a major award.  I know you can only win the competition you're in but they were in the lowest level based on merit.   Pretty cheeky stuff from a guy who's team 1) has one "major award" in 50 years (a Carabao Cup League Cup to boot) and 2) finished behind Chelsea in this year's table.  


Not Again

For the second time this month, the Union carried a one goal lead late into stoppage time against a key Eastern Conference opponent only to surrender the tying goal in the dying minutes.  Maybe this is on me for saying before hand that I would gladly take a draw.

I was so thrilled that I had tuned into MLS Season Pass when Quinn Sullivan scored this beauty to give the Union an early lead over Miami.  Even happier when Baribo added a second before half time.  I was apprehensive when Miami got one back but buoyed again when Baribo restored the two-goal lead, though I wonder how he was not called offside on the play.  The sense of impending doom grew again when Glesnes fouled Messi just outside the box.  Yep, he converted the kick and it's squeaky bum time again.  And there it is at 95 minutes, the tying goal.  The match was a great advertisement for the MLS - an exciting, mostly well-played contest, even if the result was disappointing.  And I'm still not buying the "I told you a two-goal lead is the most dangerous" argument.  If it had been a one-goal lead, the Union would have lost both of those matches.  

Much of the sting of that draw was eased when the Union made a comeback of their own on the road in Toronto.  Down 0-1 late, they got a brilliant header from Harriel off a Wagner corner at 87 minutes and then the game winner on a deflected shot by Wagner in stoppage time.  Game highlights are here; scroll forward to about 5:00 to watch the two Union goals.  Stats suggest maybe a draw would have been a fair result, though xG at 1.4-.9 does favor the Union.  So close to six points but also not far from just one point so we should take the four and be happy.  Nearing the halfway point of the season and the U are in first with a three point lead.  Everybody who saw that coming, raise your hand.  Right, that's what I thought.


How You Like Me Now? (apologies to The Heavy)

So what do fans of the various clubs think about their seasons now that all is said and done?  Check out this graph from the NYT:

I think this was before Chelsea's triumph in the Europa Conference League so their numbers might be a bit better.  Nine teams had at least 90% Very Satisfied or Satisfied, including Spurs(!?).  A little surprised that Crystal Palace tops the list but they did come on nicely at the end of the season.  On the other hand, the majority of Man City fans (nearly 75%) are not satisfied with a third place finish and a Champions League berth; success has certainly created expectations.  Note that Arsenal fans aren't exactly overjoyed with their season either, despite a second place finish and a deep run in the Champions League.  

  

New Keeper, No Problem


How many Bucknell grads does it take to win the Friendship Cup?
Two - Darren C and Dennis F 
Recall that Dennis's team, Sportif Allentown, was headed to Canada for the Friendship Cup minus their goalkeeper.  Apparently he thought Canada was already the 51st state and therefore did not need to renew his passport.   They worked out a viable strategy though - just don't allow shots on target.  This worked out well for them as they won all four matches  and came home with the Friendship Cup.  




Now What?

Well, there is the Champions League Final on Saturday between PSG and Inter.  For the third time in five years, I will be a wedding for the final.  Well, not just any wedding but BFS Founder Dennis F and Brenna C.  I've been asked to do a reading, which I believe is going to be a review of highlights of the CL Final for all those who missed it.  

The Union close out a busy but productive May with an away match at Dallas.  I will refrain from commenting on what result will make me happy.




2 comments:

  1. Congrats to Dennis & Brenna!!

    Next season’s EPL schedule comes out on June 18.

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  2. Kind of amazing that Spurs fans are happy? I guess that consolation prize of CL play despite the near relegation finish in the league was enough? We’ll see if they take advantage of it!
    Yes, congrats to Dennis and the team on the Trophy!!

    ReplyDelete