Outrunning Two Bears

Newcastle are in third and have a better goal differential than 4th place Manchester United and 5th place Liverpool.  So, we really only need to finish ahead of one of those two.  That is, we don't need to outrun the bear, just Man U.  Except, Man United are chasing us too so that makes them a bear as well.  The task of outrunning two bears is a bit more difficult.

The 2-2 draw at Leeds on Saturday did not help matters.  Damn those relegation teams play hard.  Luck kinda evened out in this one.  Bamford had a PK saved by Pope that would have given Leeds a 2-0 leed lead.  But, after we got two PKs of our own (Wilson converted both) , Leeds got a 79th minute equalizer on a deflection.

Kieren Trippier's deliveries into the box led to two goals;
unfortunately he only gets one assist because one was an own goal.
Doesn't mean the cross wasn't good though

Thursday was much better as the Magpies were clearly the better side in a 4-1 win over Brighton at Saint James' Park.  Except, there were about 30 minutes when it didn't feel so obvious and the Seagulls possession advantage (66/34) provides part of the explanation.  Newcastle were up 2-0 at half on an own goal plus Dan Burn's first ever for Newcastle.  We make Burn's goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The delivery from Trippier was excellent and so was Burn's header but what we really liked was you could see what it meant to Burn, who grew up a Magpie fan.  In the best Newcastle tradition the Magpies conceded an early second half goal.  For the next 30+ minutes, Newcastle did not see all that much of the ball.  Not that Brighton were all that threatening, it was just that a draw seemed one missed tackle away.   Late goals from Wilson and Bruno salted away the three points.

Not officially over the line yet but the bears are further in the distance than they were.  A win at home versus Leicester on Monday would clinch it.  Two draws (Leicester and Chelsea) might be enough too with our goal differential.  Or, maybe Villa could beat or draw with Liverpool on Saturday?

City Poised for Another Title

With a four point lead and a game in hand, Man City are all but in as Premier League Champions again.  They were clinical enough at Goodison Park, taking the measure of Everton 3-0.  Meanwhile Arsenal were losing at home to Brighton 0-3.  City just need two points from their final three matches against Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford to seal the deal.  

Four Players and Two Chairs

Taiwo-Awoniyi delivers two more for Nottingham Forest

All of the bottom five dropped points this weekend, though some dropped more than others. Southampton lost 0-2 to Fulham and are officially toast now.  Leicester and Everton also lost.  Leeds as mentioned got a point off of Newcastle.  And Nottingham Forest gave themselves just a little more room with a 2-2 away draw at Chelsea.  That featured two more goals from Taiwo-Awoniyi, who may be remembered as the guy who kept Forest in the top tier. They have 34 points, Everton are next with 32, then Leeds with 31 and Leicester with 30.  Remaining fixtures:

Nottingham Forest - Arsenal, at Crystal Palace

Everton -  at Wolves, Bournemouth

Leeds -   at West Ham, Tottenham

Leicester -  at Newcastle, West Ham

West Ham look like the "kingmakers" now.

Three Players and Two Chairs

Five of the European spots are taken by Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Man United and Liverpool. That leaves basically Brighton, Tottenham and Aston Villa for one Europa League spot and one Europa Conference League (NIT Lite?) spot.  We can thank Villa's 2-1 win over Spurs for this logjam.  Dennis points out that Brighton and Villa play each other on the final Sunday.  We note that Brighton has a game in hand but it is against Man City; like walking away from the ATM with your pocket full of $20s only to be mugged?

Fourth Manager?

Hello boys, I'm back

Chelsea announced they have hired Mauricio Pochettino as the permanent replacement for Graham Potter.  Permanent doesn't seem like the right word but anyway.  Since Pochettino doesn't take over for interim manager Frank Lampard until after the season, technically Chelsea will have had just three managers this season.  As noted above, their fun season continued with a 2-2 home draw to relegation threatened Nottingham Forest. 

Manager of the Year

I was planning to discuss this anyway but the Premier League just announced the six nominees for Manager of the Year.  And you can vote if you want.  Check the link here for details; fan votes will be combined with sportswriter votes.  Your choices are Guardiola (Man City), Arteta (Arsenal), Howe (Newcastle), De Zerbi (Brighton), Emery (Aston Villa), and Silva (Fulham) 

Guardiola is a hard pass for me.  Man City won the title last year (albeit by only a point over Liverpool) but they were 19 points ahead of third.  In the offseason, they added the Norse God of Goalscoring -  the one who probably does the reverse of Jamie Tartt in Episode 7 of this season's Ted Lasso: Don't pass it threww meh, pass it to meh.  Trying to imagine Jamie Tartt with a Norwegian accent and it's not working.  Anyway, the title was City's to lose and not blowing it doesn't feel like Manager of the Year stuff to me.

The late season slump takes some of the luster of Arteta's case.  But think about where they were a few years ago.  Arteta has been guiding the Gunners slowly up the table after consecutive 8th place finishes in 19-20 (56 points) and 20-21 (61 points); last year they were 5th with 69 points and this year they have 81 points with two matches to play.  Certainly, Arteta was under the gun, so to speak, for those early years.  We had him on the endangered list and poked fun when, in December 2020, Jamie Carragher counseled patience, suggesting all Arteta needed was to pick up six or seven players in the January transfer window.  Their roster does look dramatically differently and finding Jesus didn't hurt.  We do note that Arsenal have consistently been in the top five in net transfer spend so Arteta has had resources.

Howe is like Arteta in some respects, just a shorter timetable.  Certainly, the new owners have taken some of the reins off the transfer spending and we've seen some record signings Tyneside.  But not the crazy, undisciplined spending that many expected with the PIF money.  And Howe has gotten more mileage than his predecessor out of players like Joe L Linton, Schar, Longstaff and Murphy.  

DeZerbi has done a lot with less resources than others.  In fact, over the last two years, they are net seller in the transfer market.  The argument against him is how much is he just benefiting from everything Graham Potter did during his tenure there.

Emery may be the top of my list.  This was a club that looked headed for the relegation scrap heap and is now contending for a spot in Europe.  There was some spending but one of the big ticket items (Diego Carlos) spent most of the year on the DL.  They were also a team that seemed to have no direction and Emery has them playing well enough that Villa are really in every game.

Marco Silva wasn't on my list but I can see the case for him as well.  Silva  got them out of the Championship last year and he's kept them in the top half of the table.  After a good start, I fully expected them to slide steadily down the table in the second half but it didn't happen.  Silva must have done something right, without the same transfer budget as some of the bigger clubs.

Silva and Goals

Well both the second legs of Champions League semis were busts.  I didn't hold out much hope for Inter vs Milan and pretty much nothing happened.  Inter came in with a 2-0 lead, held it for most of the match before adding an insurance goal late.

Silva: I can score too.  It's not just Haaland, DeBruyne, Foden,
Mahrez, Alvarez, Grealish and Gundogan

But Man City - Real Madrid, level at 1-1?  Big expectations that were not met.  City came out flying, with Real Madrid getting only glimpses of the other half of the pitch.  Bernardo Silva cashed in on that dominance with goals at 23 and 37 minutes.  We know RM has a history of pulling a rabbit out of their hat but this one felt over.  And it was as they added two more for a 5-1 aggregate win.

So Inter will face Man City on June 10th in Istanbul (not Constantinople),  Turkiye (not Turkey).

Attacking From Left to Right on Your Radio Dial

Saturday's Union match with Colorado was behind the paywall so I tried something new - listening on 97.5. Dave Leno and Sebastien LeToux had the call. So it's not like baseball, at least not yet.   I found it hard to translate the play-by-play into mental images.  Also, I couldn't use my own eyes to judge good plays vs bad plays, good calls vs bad calls, etc.   Take the PK call against Lowe.  Leno and LeToux thought the Union got a raw deal.  Looking at the video later, I'd say it was a tough call but if the referee called it a foul on the field, the review sure made it look like it occurred right on the line, meaning it was a PK.  There was no doubt about the goal calls.  Leno got excited enough.  Wagner's equalizer in first half stoppage time, seen here, was a bolt and a timely one at that. Leno also got appropriately worked up for Carranza's early second half tally, seen here.  One problem with the radio is that without visuals, my already faulty memory doesn't remember much except key plays.  I do remember the final was 2-1 and it was a sweet road win for the Union.

Wednesday we were freed from the tyranny of soccer behind a paywall as the home contest with DC United was available on FS1.  Though I did have plenty of visuals, all I remember now is Blake saving the Union's bacon multiple times.  The xG stats - 1.00 to 2.15 in favor of DC - provide some back up to that conclusion.  The 0-0 draw felt a touch lucky.

At first blush four out of six points doesn't sound bad. And it really isn't.  Maybe after taking all three in Colorado and coming home to face the not-so-highly-rated DC United, visions of six points danced in our head.  The good news is that we wake up to see the Union not buried too far down in the standings to recover.    

The Penultimate Match Week

The next-to-last one too.  At least as of now, every match has at least one team with something to play for.   

Start with the 7:30 Saturday match on USA with Tottenham hosting Brentford. Spurs are fighting to play Europa League, not Europa Conference League while Brentford are also mathematically not eliminated from European football yet.  Surprisingly, Spurs are only very slight favorites.  Four choices at 10 am.  Frankly, the USA option - Bournemouth vs Man United - is probably the least interesting of the lot.  Both Liverpool and Aston Villa have everything to play for but I fear that Villa might be overmatched here.  Fulham are not eliminated from European football so their match with Crystal Palace could be tight.  My choice however is very likely going to be Wolves - Everton; a win for the Toffees would make things difficult for Leeds and Leicester.  Saturday concludes with a long-lost NBC feature match at 12:30 between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.  Not expected to be competitive but both have everything to play for.  Anything but an win for Arsenal and the title race is effectively over; Forest need anything they can get to keep Everton, Leeds and Leicester at bay.

Sunday has three more fixtures.  An early (for me anyway) match has West Ham hosting Leeds at 8:30 on USA.  Brighton and Southampton start at 9 on Peacock.  The day concludes with Man City Chelsea at 11 on USA.  I'm sure the schedule makers saw great things for this one but with Chelsea 42 points  behind the league leaders, there's not much here.  City clinch the title with a win; any dropped points for Chelsea means they finish in the bottom half of the table.

The match week finishes with Newcastle - Leicester at St. James' Park.  Hopefully this will end up as a victory lap for the Magpies.  Depending on results elsewhere, it could be the swan song for the Foxes.

Two mid-week clashes with Brighton - Man City on Wednesday at 3 pm on USA and Man United hosting Chelsea at 3 pm on Thursday on Peacock.  By my reckoning, that means EPL football for five of the next seven days.

The Union have a big match of their own Saturday at Subaru Park against second place New England.  I am completely baffled that 538 has this as 59/18/23 favor Philadelphia.  I'm hoping we can get a draw.  I will be at the Subaru so Apple TV can kiss my butt for this one...