Doors Are Closing But Some Windows Are Still Open

The week's results closed many of the season's open doors.  The list includes:

- Man City clinching the title when Arsenal lost to Nottingham Forest

- Newcastle earning a Champions League spot with a 0-0 draw versus Leicester

- Man United wrapping up a berth in the Champions League with a 4-1 win over Chelsea

- Brighton qualifying for Europa League with a win over Southampton and a draw with Man City

- Nottingham Forest dodging the relegation bullet with the aforementioned win over Arsenal

- Chelsea ensuring that they will finish in the bottom half of the table after losing to Man City

At the same time, there are still a few windows left open, even if only a crack.  These include:

- Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford fighting to get (not get?) the Europa Conference League spot

- Everton, Leicester and Leeds hoping to avoid the last two relegation slots

A Lopsided Draw

Where I was when Newcastle clinched
the Champions League spot;
 kinda like the road Newcastle have been
on for the last 10 years

I did not get to see Newcastle's strange 0-0 draw with Leicester as I was hiking the Appalachian Trail. No, not that Appalachian Trail.  The real one, as seen in the picture left.  The stats are nuts - possession was 78/22, shots were 23/1, shots on target were 4/1 and xG was 2.20-.15.  Dennis, who did see the match, said it was more lopsided than that and also noted that Leicester still almost stole the win with their only shot in stoppage time.

The nature of the result did little to dampen the enthusiasm as you can see from this video from the field level as the final whistle blew.  This will be the Magpies first appearance in that competition in 20 years.  Though there is some decent money involved, the real advantage is that Newcastle can offer the prospect of Champions League football to transfer targets.  This is a much more attractive pitch than, say, come to the most northern and out-of-the-way franchise in the EPL to fight against relegation.  We're already hearing about this recruiting boost.  Great work from top management through the coaching staff to the players to get to this level faster than most predicted.

One of the Bears Stopped for Honey

A key reason that the draw with Leicester was good enough was that Aston Villa played Liverpool to a 1-1 draw.  The dropped points for Liverpool meant that Newcastle were in fact going to outrun the bear.  The match was another example of how Villa can play tough against any team any where.    Aston Villa's back line was so organized and executed the offside trap multiple times; they are so in sync, they raise their arms in unison to let the ref know it's offside.  Liverpool needed a goal in the 89th minute to even get the draw.  My text string with Dennis is littered with complaints about top six bias - I think we were both less than thrilled with some of John Brooks' calls but also the attitude of the commentators.   

Nothing Less Than They De Zerbi

The 3-1 win over Southampton essentially clinched the Europa League space for Brighton so the interesting 1-1 draw with Man City only made it official.  Roberto De Zerbi certainly showed us who wondered about the fate of Brighton after Graham Potter's departure.  Though he gets testy about it, we probably do need to cite Potter's work in bringing this franchise so far.

Recall that they came back into the Premier League at the same time as Newcastle in 2017-18.  Those early years were a struggle; their first four years went 15th, 17th, 15th and 16th.  Last year, Potter's third in charge, they flew up to 9th place with 51 points.  This year, they will finish 6th with at least 62 points.  And this progress occurred as they were losing players in the transfer market like Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma, Leandro Trossard, Ben White and Dan Burn.  For the last two years, they have a net transfer spend of -$85m or so.  We won't know for a few years if this will hurt them but so far, their record looks pretty good.

Ivan Who?

Brentford's Ivan Toney was recently handed an eight month suspension for breaking rules related to betting on football; details can be had here.  At the time of the suspension, Toney had 20 of Brentford's 54 goals.  It is perhaps a measure of Tottenham's difficult season that the Bees still managed three goals in Toney's absence.  The loss ended any discussion of Spurs' participation in next year's Europa League competition.  They still have an outside shot at Europa Conference League. Michael B suggests they would do well to skip Europe all together next year and work on getting things in order.

Kompany's Comin' (apologies to Poco )

Kompany set to return to EPL, this time as a manager

I forget what match it was but in one of them we saw Vincent Kompany in the stands.  The Burnley manager guided the Clarets to a quick return to the Premier League.  Their 101 points easily outdistanced second place Sheffield United by 10 points and they clinched promotion with seven matches to play.  Kompany's success got him quickly linked with a some Premier League clubs (most notably Spurs) but right now it appears he'll be staying with Burnley.

Scenarios

Everton avoid relegation for sure with win or draw; even if they lose, both Leicester and Leeds have to win.  Even if both win, Leeds have to overcome a three goal differential with Everton.  That is not as big a lift as it sounds.  If Everton lose and Leeds win, that's two right there; so if Leeds win by two or Everton lose by two, that's enough to swing the tiebreaker in Leeds' favor.  Leicester's fate is straightforward - they must win and Everton must lose. Leeds have to win and Everton must lose and the net margin has to be at least 3 goals.

For the Europa Conference League spot it's a little more complicated.  One scenario is clear; if Aston Villa win, they get the spot regardless of what Tottenham or Brentford do.  They also make it with a draw, as long as neither Spurs nor Brentford win.  And they can even make it with a loss as long as Spurs lose and Brentford don't win.  Brentford's chances are easily explained - they have to win and both Aston Villa and Tottenham have to draw or lose.  Anything else means Spurs get the berth.  Okay, more specifically, if Spurs win and Villa draw or lose, they get the spot.  Also, if they draw and Villa lose, and Brentford don't win, they have the honor of representing the EPL in the Europa League.

A More Perfect Union

I should know by now to trust 538.  They had the Union as solid favorites over New England but I was skeptical.  Though, the 3-0 final may be a bit flattering, the Union were clearly the better side.  Both teams had some good chances in a 0-0 first half.  Gazdag put the Union up in the 56th minute, taking  a throw-in from Uhre and beating Petrovic on the near post.  He also got the second after Uhre earned a PK at 71 minutes; at the stadium the call looked softish but watching replays it looks like the contact was slightly from behind, not shoulder to shoulder.  Nothing cheap about the third goal, a two on one break from Carranza and Donovan.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Check out Donovan's speed to ensure that it would be two on one and the pass that put the ball on a platter for Carranza.

Shots were 17-8 and shots on target 7-0; xG was 1.95 - 1.35.  That last number is the clue as to why the final might overstate the Union's dominance.  Zero shots on target but xG of 1.35 tells us they put some good chances wide; I can remember at least two. Overall though, this was likely the best Union outing of the year.  They have done well so far with the 5-3-2 or 3-5-2; it takes some of the defensive load off Wagner and Mbaizo freeing them to attack from the wings.  Still nine points behind Cincinnati but just four behind second place Nashville.  Things are moving in the right direction.

What About Jesus' Cat?

BFS Token Arsenal Fan Luke P sent along the picture (above) showing the dangers of phonetically typing in players' names. Close enough for Apple I guess.

  

Matches That Matter

They call it Championship Sunday but there's not so much left now.  All matches are at 11:30 on various stations in the NBC network.  All but one are on Peacock.

The two key fixtures are Aston Villa - Brighton and Everton - Bournemouth - if the two home sides win, all the other results are meaningless.  The other match ups that could matter are Leeds - Tottenham (this one is on CNBC), Brentford - Man City and Leicester - West Ham.  Though we have a rooting interest in Aston Villa, I think we'll be going with a match involving the threat of relegation, probably Everton-Bournemouth.  Hard to know exactly how motivated Villa might be to get to a third-tier European competition whereas we know Everton, under Sean Dyche, will leave nothing on the pitch.

The Richest Match in Football

Also known as the EFL Championship Promotion Playoffs - Final.  This is the match for the last spot for promotion from the Championship Division to the Premier League.  We are guaranteed a fresh face in the EPL next year as the final pits Coventry against Luton Town.  You can see that one on ESPN+ at 11:45 on Saturday.  Usually a good watch.

Another Baseball Field

Saturday also has the Union traveling to face NYCFC.  That one is at 7:30 behind Apple's paywall.  NYCFC still do not have a real home; they've merely switched from one baseball field (Yankee Stadium) to another (Citi Field).

Really?

Also, it must be close to summer because mid-week football is gone. 😔