These Are Not the Results You Are Looking For

 apologies to Obi-wan

Except for the Union, not a great weekend.  And even that Union win was ugly.

A Hit-the-Post Kind of Fixture

This is what the aftermath of an own goal looks like
IMAGO / PA Images

I mentioned that Newcastle's history with Arsenal is worse than checkered - it's just awful.  So when Jacob Murphy hit the post in the opening minutes, the feeling of deja vu was inevitable.  It was overwhelming shortly thereafter when a call for handling in the box was overturned (correctly - damn it - as seen here) by VAR and another opportunity was lost.  By the time Odegaard scored in the 14th minute, almost completely against the run of play, the outcome seemed a foregone conclusion.  Schar's own goal at 71 minutes sealed their fate and on the face of it, the 0-2 final could hardly be a surprise.

Except there is more to the story.  Though I can't argue with the result, the match was closer than the final suggests.  Newcastle had several good scoring chances that hit the post or were saved.  So did Arsenal for that matter.  I thought the final should have been 2-3 or 3-4, which made me a bit surprised when I saw that xG was 1.7-1.1 favor the Magpies.  In short, this was not a Newcastle side that went meekly into the night.  Certainly, Newcastle have established their bona fides as a top six club right now.  The bad news is that anything less than a slot in the Champions League will feel like a letdown at this point.

Other Less Than Thrilling Results

Liverpool were the better side but Brentford made them work for the 1-0 win.  Yes, we got a lift when West Ham grabbed all three points from Man United in a 1-0 win.  But, I would rather have seen Liverpool stumble and stay farther away.  Now, 3rd through 5th (Newcastle, Man United, Liverpool) is 65, 63 and 62 points, though Liverpool have played an extra match.  While 538 has Newcastle at 92%, this is way too close.  

Also, though we didn't see it, Aston Villa lost 1-0 to Wolves.  Dennis did watch it and warned me to look elsewhere for entertainment.  This was a blow to their chances for European football, but not a knockout punch.  They are three behind 6th place Tottenham and one behind Brighton (though the Seagulls have two games in hand).  So as Lloyd Christmas would tell us, there's still a chance - no matter how much Dennis would prefer there wasn't.

Another Manic Monday (apologies to The Bangles)

Thank you to Charles III for making last Monday a bank holiday in England, meaning we got a full slate of EPL fixtures, with four of the five relegation-threatened sides in action.  And what a strange, if not always competitive, set of contests they turned out to be.  Leicester were first up against Fulham and came roaring out to a two goal deficit which grew to 4-0 by the 51st minute.  Hardly the effort you would expect against a mid-table side with so much on the line.  The final ended up 5-3 and there was a moment when a Jamie Vardy PK could have made it 4-2.  But he missed, Fulham added a fifth and the two late goals make the final look closer than it really was.

On to the south coast, where Everton did exactly what you'd expect from a bottom three side fighting for its EPL life.  They scored at 35 seconds, then used effective counterattacks to build a 3-0 by 35 minutes.  The final ended up 5-1.  The stats are most interesting; possession was 78/22, shots were 23/10, shots on target 5/5 and xG 3.35/2.1, all favor of Brighton.   It was a wide open match given that the Seagulls fell behind early.  

Deliver us from the relegation zone: Taiwo-Awonyi brace does just that
 (Image: PA)

Saving the best for last, Nottingham Forest hosted Southampton in the late game.  Forest established a 2-0 lead quickly on a brace by Taiwo-Awonyi but the Saints grabbed one back soon after to make it 2-1.  Forest got a PK before half and went to the locker room with a two-goal lead.  That didn't last long as Lyanco reduced the deficit early in the second half.  Danilo restored the cushion at 73 minutes and the match drifted into stoppage time (11 minutes of it) with the score 4-2.  James Ward-Prowse converted a PK to make things interesting but the Saints couldn't level in the remaining minutes and Forest got a 4-3 win and all three points.

Where does this leave us?  Southampton are up the English Channel without a paddle. they're eight points from safety with three to play.  Leicester and Leeds (who lost 2-1 at Man City) - 18th and 19th respectively -  have 30 points but are just two from safety; though Leeds have a worse goal differential than 17th place Everton.  Nottingham Forest have 33 points but the worst goal differential of the four.  The remaining fixtures:

Nottingham Forest - at Chelsea, Arsenal, at Crystal Palace

Everton - Man City, at Wolves, Bournemouth

Leicester -  Liverpool, at Newcastle, West Ham

Leeds -  Newcastle, at West Ham, Tottenham

Southampton - Fulham, at Brighton, Liverpool

Newcastle could play the opposite of kingmaker.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say that Crystal Palace missed a tap-in?

Steve: No, I said they failed to score on an Eze shot.

Saved By A Canceled Subscription

Thank you MLS Season Pass for getting me to drop my subscription so I couldn't watch whatever sport they were playing in Harrison NJ on Saturday night.  I followed the match on line and did not need video to understand how bad it was.  Selected halftime stats included one shot on goal each (and the U's was a PK), total shots were 1/9, and the Union's passing accuracy was 43%.  That last one seems impossible - it's U8 level.  So of course the score was 1-0 favor the Union.  And that ended up being the final score as well.  Get a load of these final stats; shots were 3/17, shots on goal were 2/3, possession was 47/53, passing accuracy was 52/62 (meaning the U upped their game in the second half) and fouls were 18/23 (yes 41 total fouls - surprised they even had time to pass or shoot).  According to MLS, xG was 1.1/1.8; taking out Gazdag's PK, it becomes .3/1.8

Not in the Hunt After A Shootout

Tuesday's Lamar Hunt US Open Cup match versus the Minnesota Loons, which I did stream on YouTube, was highly entertaining but ultimately unsatisfying.  The US Open Cup is the American equivalent of the FA Cup, except with way fewer teams.  Curtin went with a heavily rotated line up that worked well for a 0-0 first half.  Eventually though, they fell behind 2-0.  More regulars drifted in and they got one back before Kai Wagner put in the equalizer at 94 minutes.   The U fell behind in extra time but were kept alive again by a late free kick goal from Kai Wagner, this  week's YouTubeableMoment.  On to PKs, but the U were eventually bested 7-6.  Ironically, Wagner's was one of the misses in the shootout.

Though it's embarrassing to go out in the Round of 32, 1) they weren't alone among the better MLS teams exiting and 2) given they need to focus on the regular season, this is probably for the best.

Keep 'em Coming

A full slate for the weekend plus enough mid-week action to keep even the most serious fan happy.

Apparently Charles III only temporarily halted the 7:30 Saturday morning fixtures.  I hope he doesn't get re-elected.  Worse, the match is Leeds - Newcastle so I'll be up.  As Dennis notes, if you don't beat sides like Leeds, you can't expect to be in the Champions League.  

Curiously, we have five matches at 10 but no 12:30 feature match.  Though most involve at least one side with something to play for, some of the match-ups are more meaningful than others.  The USA game is Chelsea - Nottingham Forest but we'll probably go with Aston Villa - Tottenham; Spurs are trying to avoid the Europa Conference League and Villa still have an outside shot at one of the two secondary European competitions.  Mildly surprised to see the Villans favored here (44/32/25).  Your other choices are Crystal Palace - Bournemouth, Man United - Wolves and Southampton-Fulham.  We wouldn't mind seeing Wolves grab a point or three at Old Trafford but probably not happening.  Southampton are down to their last gasp and might see Fulham as a chance for a result, except how'd that work out for Leicester last week?

Three more on Sunday. Brentford host West Ham at 9 on Peacock (not much to play for there).  Everton take on Man City, also at 9 but on USA.  Yes, both are in need of a result but one side is much better than the other.  The 11:30 match, also on USA, is Arsenal - Brighton; the Gunners can't afford to drop points here but we wonder if Brighton might be a bit testy after their performance against Everton.  The match week concludes with Leicester hosting Liverpool Monday at 3 pm.  Like we said earlier, both teams will be desperate for a result but one side is much better.

In mid-week action, Newcastle will cash in their game in hand, playing Brighton Thursday at 2:30.  This will be tougher than Leeds but, at home, this is a match the Magpies should be winning.

Veni, vidi, Vinicius; I came, I saw, I scored
Vini Jr gives Real Madrid the lead
IMAGO/PA Images/Nick Potts

Don't forget the second leg of the two Champions League semi-finals.  Man City - Real Madrid is
perfectly poised for a cracking second leg, level at 1-1 as they head to the Etihad on Wednesday. A wonder strike from Vini was matched by an almost equally awesome take by DeBruyne.  All to play for there. Less optimistic of the chances for a good one in the other semi, Inter carry a 2-0 lead into that one and Milan didn't look all that competitive.

The Union are out in Colorado Saturday night at 9:30, then back to Subaru Park on Wednesday at 7:30 to face D.C. United.  No rest for the weary.  

That goes for us too.