So You're Telling Me There's A Chance

The title race is not done after West Ham barely hold on to draw Man City 2-2 and Liverpool scrape out a win 2-1 win at Southampton.  Meanwhile, the Magpies are a key part of yet another turnaround in the race for the final Champions League spot.  On this side of the pond, the Union cough up another lead and this time it's not as forgivable.  

Ich Bin Ein Magpie

Wilson's goal was later ruled an own goal and
 he lost a tooth to an Arsenal elbow; at least they got the W

I was feeling the love from Tottenham and Chelsea fans as Newcastle took on Arsenal at home.  Historians know that this is an awful fixture for the Magpies so despite all the support, expectations were very low.  All the more pleasant a surprise when Newcastle took hold of this match from the opening whistle and basically never let go.  They were clearly the better side in a 0-0 first half.  The fact that they played well but had nothing to show for it led Dennis to note with concern that it had the feel of a "dominant 1-0 loss."  Newcastle got the breakthrough goal after a cross from Bruno G got put into the net by a sliding Ben White.  Yeah, it was an own goal but it was 1) nothing less than Newcastle deserved and 2) a dangerous cross that Callum Wilson would have likely put in anyway.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Good to see that Newcastle did not let up, though it took until the 85th minute for Bruno G to salt the match away.

What a performance to demonstrate the total turnaround Newcastle experienced this year.  Even if they had lost on Monday, that was still really good football to watch.  Eddie Howe got one of the five nominations for manager of the year (Klopp, Guardiola, Viera [Palace] and Frank [Brentford] are the others).  No doubt he benefitted from some January acquisitions (cough, cough Bruno G), but much of the improvement comes down to getting way more out of players like Joe L. Linton, Ryan Fraser and Almiron,  Even in case of Bruno, Howe deserves credit for patiently working him into the line up rather than immediately throwing him to the Wolves, Foxes, Bees, Hornets and the like. 

As for the implications for Arsenal, see Flipped Again below.

This Ain't Ovah

Thanks to this save from Fabianski, the title race is still alive

Man City could have clinched the title with a win at West Ham on Sunday.  The Hammers got a
different script and went up 2-0 by half time.  Still, you figured this would be like Usain Bolt getting the baton five meters behind in the anchor leg of a 4 x 100.  Sure enough, Grealish got one right away.  By 69 minutes, the match was level.  West Ham were still playing tough but when they were called for PK in the 86th minute, the effort looked like it would be for naught.  Except Fabianski made an excellent save on Mahrez and West Ham walked away with the 2-2 draw.  City didn't exactly "drop the baton" but this was not what we expected.  

Liverpool struggled but eventually took advantage of City's stumble with a hard-fought 2-1 win over Southampton on Tuesday.  They fell behind early and didn't put in the game winner until the 69th minute, a kind of "how did he do that" header from Joel Matip.  

So heading into the final weekend, Man City have a one point lead and a better goal differential by six.  In theory, Liverpool could capture the title with a draw against Wolves and a six goal loss by City to Aston Villa - wait, that would also require that Liverpool score six more goals than City as well.  Right, not going to happen.  No, the more "realistic" scenario is Villa beat City and Liverpool beat Wolves.  So, the door is clearly not wide open but neither did it get slammed shut.  Lloyd Christmas has this about right.  At 538, they think it's a little closer - 82% Man City versus 18% Liverpool.  That sounds optimistic about the Reds' chances to me.

Relegation Battle

All three candidates played exceedingly tough.  Everton played tough and stupid.  Burnley gave Spurs fits but lost 0-1 on a handling call in the box by Harvey Barnes.  Leeds fell behind early on a Danny Welbeck goal but grabbed a precious point on a stoppage time goal by Struijk.  Everton played a wild match at Goodison Park, finishing with just nine players and losing 2-3 to Brentford.  Up 1-0 early, the Toffees had defender Branthewaite sent off at just 18 minutes for DOGSO.  Seamus Coleman gave up an own goal (not his fault) but surprisingly, Everton took a 2-1 lead into the lockerroom on stoppage time PK.  Two goals in quick succession by Brentford put Everton into a hole they couldn't climb out of.  Any hope of late rally was cut short when subsitute Rondon got a straight red in the 88th minute.

After the weekend, new odds were Everton 9%, Burnley 35% and Leeds 56%.  Last week they were 6/29/65.  They didn't change all that much because Burnley weren't expected to get much against Spurs, while Leeds had a good chance of getting a point.  

Then we had two matches on Thursday - Everton v Crystal Palace and Aston Villa v Burnley.  Everton dug themselves a huge 0-2 but came back with three, including the game winner from Dominic Calvert Lewin at 85 minutes.  Everton fans added to their list of shithousery with a premature pitch invasion after that goal - details here, including some videos.  I get it; you looked like you were headed for relegation but at least wait until the end of the match to storm the field, which, of course, they did as well.  Meanwhile, Burnley were fighting hard again and gave Aston Villa a good match.  The 1-1 final is probably a fair result.  This was a wide-open, entertaining match as Villa were clearly not ready to put on the flip-flops and Burnley were fighting for their Premier League lives.

With those results, were down to just Burnley and Leeds.  They are level on points with 35 but the Clarets' goal differential is a massive 20 goals better than Leeds.  Advantage Burnley, who "simply" have to match whatever result Leeds get on Sunday.  Burnley are home against Newcastle while Leeds travel to Brentford.  At 538, they have Burnley at 24% chance of relegation, Leeds at 76%.

Flipped Again

As noted above, Spurs got all three points against Burnley while Arsenal dropped all three points at Newcastle.  The results turned a one point deficit into a two point lead for Tottenham.  So, the Gunners ceded the advantage back to Spurs in a race that was theirs to lose.  Tottenham play on the road at Norwich while Arsenal host Everton.  That latter match may not be as scary since the Toffees are now safe.  But it also probably doesn't matter.  Even a draw will be enough to Spurs to secure the spot given their huge goal differential advantage.  Surely, Tottenham will not lose at Norwich.  Probably not.  And please don't call me Shirley.  Odds at 538 are 96% for Spurs, 4% for Arsenal.

Liverpool Still Believe in Quad

Somewhere back there this weekend, Liverpool and Chelsea played to another 0-0 draw in a cup final, this time the FA Cup.  Just like in the League Cup, the matter was settled by kicks-from-the-spot.  This time it only required six rounds instead of 11.  Actually, it wasn't an awful watch for a 0-0 draw but how many times are Chelsea and Liverpool going to do this dance?  For Liverpool, they are halfway to the Quad.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve:  Well, Aston Villa sure have the run of play so far against Burnley

Dennis: Meh, Villa are middle management in this game - bossing everything but don't actually have any worthwhile ideas

Father's Day Hint for Jim Curtin - Don't Get Him a Tie

With draws on Saturday and Wednesday, they now have five straight ties.  Saturday's was bad as they coughed up a lead for the fourth straight match.  The previous two had been mostly acceptable as they were on the road against solid opponents (Nashville and LAFC).  The Red Bulls are improving but at home, up a man, losing a 1-0 lead is not good.  First half, hopeful direct balls that usually ended up in the keeper's hands.  Quick strike early in second half with a nifty give and go involving Gazdag and Santos.  Then RB red card.  Some early chances not converted.  Then the give away.  They had appeared to retake the lead but Carranza was correctly ruled offside.

Santos looks outmanned here; he is having trouble scoring

On Wednesday against Inter Miami, they didn't cough up the lead because they never had one.  The U pretty clearly had the better chances but simply could not find the back of the net.  A 0-0 draw at home to one of the weaker sides in the East was not good.  We will put an asterisk next to this one.  Both Carranza (loanees can't play against their parent club) and Uhre (still injured) were missing.  The team needs those three to convert the chances they are getting.  

Championship Sunday

As is usual, all matches will start at the same time on Sunday.  As of this writing, I didn't see TV listings.  Six matches matter:

Arsenal - Everton 

Brentford - Leeds

Burnley - Newcastle

Liverpool - Wolves

Man City - Aston Villa

Norwich - Tottenham

We'll focus on the Newcastle match but will probably have additional devices following Brentford Leeds and maybe Norwich-Tottenham.

The Union have a late Sunday night (10pm) at Portland.  Not the best place to break a winless streak.