Hoo Rah

Union's big off-season acquisition Mikael Uhre gets his first goal at an opportune time.  Newcastle lose but it's not terrible.  Both Champions League semi-final second legs end up being interesting.  Did you catch me on ESPN2 at the Penn Relays? I was the official in the khaki pants, navy blue blazer, white shirt, red tie and red hat.

Ho Hum

Naby Keita's shot at 19 minutes was all Liverpool needed

Not much to say about Newcastle's 0-1 loss to Liverpool.  The Magpies weren't awful but there was no doubt which was the better side.   Was never expecting a result here and I prefer Liverpool win the league title.  Nice to not be sweating about the dropped points.  I know they are not mathematically safe from relegation but I've been told I'm not allowed to talk about that.

New Relegation "Favorite"

Michael B noted that in no other sport would Watford - Burnley have been a compelling match.  The Hornets, sitting in 19th with 22 points, were running out of time while 17th place Burnley were on a roll but still just two above the drop zone.  Watford "scored" early courtesy of an own goal from Tarkowski.  Burnley had the better of things but still trailed late.  In rapid succession, Jack Cork headed one in from close range and minutes later Josh Brownhill put the Clarets up on a shot from the top of the box.  Though not as exciting as if they had done it had home, the reaction was still pretty good as seen here.  Burnley now have 10 points out of last 12 possible while Watford's tragic number is now one - they have to win every match and hope for help elsewhere.

Later in the day, Leeds fell as expected to Man City, 0-4.  Though the loss probably didn't seem too damaging at the time, things got worse as the weekend progressed.  First they found out that fullback-midfielder Stuart Dallas broke his leg in the match and is probably gone for the season.  Then Everton upset Chelsea 1-0, grabbing three unexpected points that leave the Toffees just two points back with a game in hand.  

Aston Villa ended Norwich's one-year run in the Premiership with a 2-0 win at home.  The stats (except xG) say this was close and it looked that way to me.  Villa only added the second goal in second half stoppage time.  A draw wouldn't have helped them much anyway but Ings' goal in the 93rd minute sealed the Canaries fate.

So the new numbers at 538 have Burnley at 21%, Everton at 34% and Leeds at 45%.  But note that they have Burnley and Everton finishing with 38 and Leeds with 37, meaning one upset or stumble will change the order again.  Burnley have Aston Villa (twice), Tottenham and Newcastle left.  Everton have Leicester, Watford, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Arsenal.  Leeds still face Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford.  

Meanwhile, On the Other Side of Town...

Little changed at the top as all top six sides - except Chelsea - won.  That bumped the odds up for those in the preferred slots (Man City and Arsenal), though not by much, mostly because there is now one fewer game to play.  In theory, Chelsea are at risk of losing a Champions League spot to Arsenal and Tottenham.  Then you look at their final matches - Wolves, Leeds, Leicester, and Watford - and realize it's just not going to happen.

This Week in Fan S**thousery

We have two nominees to consider.  First, let's look at the fine work of relegation-stressed Everton fans, who set off a fireworks display outside the hotel where the visiting Chelsea players were staying.  Accounts vary on the starting time (1:30 am? 2:40am?) and length of the display (30 minutes? 90 minutes?).  Just a friendly gesture I'm sure.  Besides, every athlete knows that the critical night for sleep is actually two days before the competition.  Story and video here.

Leeds fans were non-partisan; they pelted their own players too

Though perhaps not as disruptive, the performance of Leeds fans merits discussion just for its sheer stupidity. There was some huge paper mural as part of a pre-game rally and the fans spent the rest of the day tossing wadded up pieces of it onto the pitch.  Sure, it's not in same league as throwing bottles and cans but it was certainly disruptive, as play had to be stopped several times to clear the pitch.  And sure, nobody got hurt.   The best part?  They threw at their own players too.  Call me old school but if you throw shit on the field you deserve to be ejected.  I saw some Leeds fans getting all upset about being criticized for their behavior.  Things like, "they want to punish a five year-old for throwing paper."  If you saw the volume of paper on the field you can only conclude that the entire Leeds fan base is made up of five year-olds.  This is not the BFS has written about the less savory aspects of the Leeds fans.    

I Don't Believe What I Just Saw (apologies to Jack Buck)

Tuesday's Champions League semi-final was crazy enough, with Villareal coming from two goals back to draw level with Liverpool before the Reds woke up in the second half with three of their own to take the tie 5-2 on aggregate.  Wednesday's was simply nuts.  Recall that Man City came to Spain with a 4-3 lead over Real Madrid after the first leg.  The match was tense simply because one goal for Real Madrid would even things up.  But it was Man City who scored first on an awesome shot from the right hand side by Mahrez at 73 minutes.  Surely that would be enough for Man City to advance.  Not so fast.  And please don't call me Shirley.

Rather than relate the events, go to the video first, this week's YouTubeableMoments.  Staggering. Goals at 90 and 91 minutes to send the match into extra time.  I realize Rodygo's goals are not the game winners but Benzema's PK at 95 minutes was practically anticlimactic. It's not totally surprising that Real Madrid came out the winners here.  But not from two goals down in the 90th minute.  Aside from the late goals, check out the performance from Courtois; the two saves on Grealish kept the deficit at two.  I'm told by BFS La Liga Expert Michael B that Real Madrid are famous for this kind of sh... stuff.

Liverpool and Real Madrid will meet at the Stade de France in Paris on Saturday, May 28th.  

Lucky/Not Lucky

We had every reason to expect a tough contest in the first match ever held at Geodis Park, the new home of Nashville SC.  In the first half, the hosts had a couple off rattle off the woodwork and were denied at least four times by Andre Blake, including this incredible stop.  Good to get to half time level.  The first goal in the new stadium would come from the Union's Mikael Uhre, who did some nice individual work in the box after receiving a long ball from Gazdag.  Check out the play here; it would have been the YouTubeableMoment but for Rodrygo's nutsery on Wednesday.

Might not see a better save than this all year

Nashville were lively enough that an equalizer was certainly possible.  Unfortunate that it came on a PK after Martinez was called for handling.  Arm up and away from the body always gives the referee the chance to whistle for the PK; I thought it was a tough call but certainly not outrageous.  The Union would dodge a bullet in stoppage time when ball and Cory Burke's arm came in contact in the penalty area.  This was close enough that the referee went to the monitor; at that point I was sure he signal for another PK.  To our relief, he did not.  Proper use of VAR in my view.  The final was 1-1.

So we have quite a mixed bag. Certainly Nashville were denied their chances in the first half, either by Blake or the woodwork.  The Union did have good attacking presence.  Nashville had more possession and shots but shots on target were basically even.  So was xG, after taking into account the PK, meaning in open play, they matched Nashville nicely.  At 538, non-shot based xG was also even.  The handling call on Martinez was a touch unlucky.  The no-call on Burke could have gone either way.  I'm going with the view that a draw was a fair result here.  

Still Much to Play For

Arguably every one of this week's matches matter for the league title, Champions League, Europa League or relegation.  Let's start with the relegation end.  Leeds clearly have the toughest assignment, taking on Arsenal away (Sunday 9 on Peacock).  Everton and Burnley have similar opponents in Leicester and Aston Villa.  Burnley will be at home (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) while Everton are away (Sunday at 9 on USA).  Who knows what to expect from Leicester and Aston Villa.  My guess is that Aston Villa will not want to wake up Sunday with Burnley just three points in the rear view mirror so they should come out interested.  Leicester are like Newcastle - not mathematically safe yet - so we shouldn't assume they'll be in flip-flops either.  Technically, Crystal Palace - Watford (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) has some importance as the Hornets are not officially dead yet.

In the title race, Man City host Newcastle (Sunday at 11:30 on USA) while Liverpool take on Spurs at Anfield (a special Saturday 2:45 start on USA).  I would argue that one of these is a lot easier than the other but at 538 they have both Liverpool and City as heavy favorites.  I would expect Tottenham to give Liverpool a go.

In the race for the fourth Champions League spot, I'd argue that Arsenal (vs Leeds) have an easier assignment than Spurs (at Liverpool).  But things haven't played out as predicted a lot this year so who knows.

The battle for the Europa stuff is still on.  Man United have a tough match at Brighton (feature match on Saturday at 12:30 on NBC); 538 has the Seagulls as a very slight favorite, with a draw being a real possibility.  Chelsea will host Wolves (Saturday at 10 on USA); 538 has Wolves with only a slight chance at a top seven finish and playing Chelsea won't be any help.  Not helpful either is the club they're chasing, West Ham, playing Norwich (Sunday at 9 on Peacock).

That leaves us with Brentford - Southampton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock).  At 40 points each, both are probably safe but not quite over the finish line.  I'll be going with Burnley - Aston Villa for the Saturday 10 group and probably Arsenal - Leeds for the Sunday at 9 group.

Six midweek contests to take in as well, with five of six quite important.  The title contenders are both in action.  Liverpool go to Aston Villa on Tuesday at 3 while Man City face Wolves on the road Wednesday at 3:15.  These look of similar difficulty.  Definitely favorites but not pushover opponents.

Game of the week is definitely Tottenham - Arsenal on Thursday at 2:45 on USA.  A loss - and probably a draw - pretty much ends Spurs' pursuit of Champions League this year.  They are a slight favorite at 538 but this could easily end in a draw.  

Burnley aren't active but Leeds have another tough one in Chelsea (Wednesday) while Everton may have a good chance against Watford (also Wednesday).  You may be excused if you want to pass on Leicester - Norwich.

Would be cool if Uhre can repeat this in LA

The Union have a very tough match against the league's top team so far - LAFC.  That one is out in California so you have to stay up late to catch it live.  The Union are a big underdog for this one; coming home with a draw would be an excellent result.