Fates Were Sealed

Many teams saw their situations resolved - for better or worse.  The Union get another decent road draw.  

Don't Have To Worry About That Anymore

Newcastle are now mathematically safe from relegation.  So are Leicester, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Brentford.  Watford, on the other hand, are officially headed back to the Championship Division.

Man United are out of contention for the Champions League after a 0-4 loss to Brighton.  Though you wouldn't think it possible, that final score actually flatters United.  It also brings back my favorite talking point.  Only three teams - Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea - have fewer losses than Brighton.

Arsenal holding midfielder Holding called for holding:
his two yellows opened the door for Spurs romp

One fate that was not sealed was the 4th Champions League spot.  Tottenham got a big 3-0 at home versus Arsenal to keep their hopes for that last spot alive.  Already down 0-1, Rob Holding made Arsenal's task much harder by getting a second yellow.  He was a busy man, getting his first yellow at 26 minutes for persistent infringement, then earning a second at 33 minutes with an elbow to Son that could easily have been a straight red.  Kane made it 2-0 shortly thereafter and Son added a third early in the second half. 

The win means that Tottenham are just one point out of 4th, with a better goal differential.  The odds now have Arsenal at 54% and Spurs at 47%.  The Gunners have to travel to Newcastle then have Everton at home.  Tottenham host Burnley, then travel to Norwich.  On paper that looks like four wins but a draw by Arsenal in either of their contests would open the door for Spurs.

 

A Long Par Four

Newcastle playing Man City is the equivalent of me playing a 420 yard par 4.  I could play the hole reasonably well and still get a 6.  I said this to Dennis with the score 3-0 for City in the 89th minute.  The Magpies then yielded two more before the final whistle.  I texted Dennis that if that hole comes at the end of a round where I'm already not scoring well, it doesn't take much to turn it into an 8. Nothing more need be said of this match.

How Do You Say Fu...dge in Flemish?

On Saturday I started with Aston Villa - Burnley for the 10 am match.  In theory, this was supposed to be close.  Villa had other ideas, coming out on the front foot and never letting up.  Ings got one at 7 minutes, Buendia added another at 30.  When Watkins made it 3-0 at 52 minutes, it was time to switch.

Not a happy man: Lukaku after Wolves level the match 

I tuned into Chelsea - Wolves just as Lukaku was converting a PK to put the Blues up 1-0.  Two minutes later, he doubled the lead.  Good stuff in a rare recent start for the Belgian.  Wolves started to put more pressure on Chelsea and got one back from Trincao at 79 minutes.  But when Lukaku departed for Havertz at 90+1, Chelsea were still up 2-1.  He watched from the sidelines as Conor Coady headed in the equalizer at 90+7.  The camera got his face - we didn't see any expletives but his expression said "all that good work down the drain."  The upshot of the dropped points is that Chelsea still need a point from either the Leicester or Watford matches to seal a Champions League spot.  Doesn't sound difficult but...

Toffees Looking Safer

I had settled on Arsenal - Leeds for the Sunday 9 am choice.  Except the Gunners quickly went up 2-0 so I switched over to Leicester - Everton.  Seeing a red card go up on the screen for Leeds confirmed the wisdom of that move.  Surprisingly, Arsenal did not add to their lead and actually surrendered a goal for a 2-1 final.  I guess Arsenal were trying to walk it in.  

Dennis had been texted me updates on the Leicester - Everton match and it sounded like a good one - three goals in 30 minutes.  Not so much scoring after I tuned in but Pickford was putting on a good show in goal.  Player of the Match worthy in fact.  He kept the score at 2-1 as Everton picked up a big, and somewhat unexpected,  three points.

Midweek, Everton may did not distinguish themselves with a 0-0 draw at Watford but it was another point.  Meanwhile, Leeds were digging another hole, this time at home against Chelsea.  First, they fell behind quickly, then saw Daniel James sent off for one of the nastier challenges you'll see this year.  The Blues took a while to put the advantage to good use but that final ended 3-0. 

Burnley did get a goal back late against Aston Villa but the 3-1 loss was a big setback, dropping their expected points down to 37, making them the favorite for relegation.  That is, until Leeds did the double against Arsenal and Chelsea, putting them back in the driver's seat for the third relegation spot.  Odds after Thursday's matches have Everton at 9%, Burnley at 29% and Leeds at 65%..

Booby Prize?

Dennis asked if Liverpool would trade the league title for the League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League Title.  My first answer was they would take the Champions League title over the EPL title.  But then I thought that might have been a case of where you stand depends on where you sit.  With the league title almost out of reach now, Champions League sounds pretty good.  No, the real question is at the beginning of the season, would you choose the league title or the Champions League title?  Which is harder to win?  Which is more prestigious?  Answering yes to the first question might mean the second is also yes. I probably still choose the Champions League but it's not obvious. 

Coincidentally, as Man City were dismantling Newcastle, Arlo White seemed to suggest that Pep Guardiola will view the league title as the Booby Prize.  As in, he'd make the trade in a heart beat.

Booby prize or no, the title is almost in City's hands.  They followed the 5-0 win over Newcastle with a 5-1 win over Wolves on Wednesday.  Liverpool played Tottenham to a 1-1 draw on Saturday, then bested Villa 2-1 on Tuesday.  Son got the Player of the Match on Saturday but I thought it was the collective defense of Spurs that deserved the award.  They didn't park the bus, just seemed to block the Reds attempts at every turn; the final stat was 13 blocked shots out of 22 taken.  On Tuesday, Villa drew first blood but the advantage was quickly wiped out.  Sadio Mane' got the game winner at 65 minutes.  Dennis put it aptly - "close but inevitable."

The title odds are now Man City 93% to Liverpool 7%.  Might not even come down to the final weekend.

Some Day, Everybody's Gonna Hate My Team

Chelsea look to be on track to get new ownership soon.  A few details here.  What really caught my eye though was the range of net worth from bottom to top in the EPL.

As you can see, I had a scaling problems the spread is so great.  Now, net worth of ownership doesn't guarantee it will be spent on the team and there are financial fair play regulations that limit spending.  But, I can foresee a time down the road when people will be contemptuous of Newcastle's spending habits.  Sigh, I'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

Definitely Lucky This Time

Carranza-Gazdag becoming an efficient scoring duo

The Union got a second straight away draw against a formidable opponent, this time 2-2 with LAFC. However, unlike last week's tie with Nashville, this one felt lucky.  And that's even taking into account that LA came back from one goal deficits.  The Union were clinical in their finishing and they had to be given they only got two shots on target.  Check out the finish from Carranza on the second goal, this weeks  YouTubeableMoment.  The stats suggest LA had the better of it - 67% possession, shots were 22-9, shots on goal were 6-2.  The expected goals based on shots was close but taking into account non-shot based xG, the difference was 2.00-1.25.  All that being said, this was still an excellent result from a tough match.

FA Cup Final Weekend

Looks like maybe they're trying to make a bigger deal out of the FA Cup Final as it is the only match scheduled for Saturday.  On the other hand, the only place you can watch it is ESPN+, so does that really make a difference?  In any case, Chelsea and Liverpool will face off Saturday at 11:45.  

The final also shortens the weekend schedule a bit, though some mid-week contests will fill in the holes.  Surprisingly, even with many things getting sorted out this week, there are still many games with something riding on them.

On the relegation front we have:

Tottenham - Burnley (Sunday at 7 on USA)

Leeds - Brighton (Sunday at 9 am on Peacock)

Everton - Brentford (Sunday at 11:30 am on USA)

Everton - Crystal Palace (Thursday at 2:45 on USA)

Aston Villa - Burnley (Thursday at 3 pm on Peacock)

For the title race there is:

West Ham - Man City (Sunday at 9 on USA)

Southampton - Liverpool (Tuesday at 2:45 on USA)

For the Champions League check out:

Tottenham - Burnley (Sunday at 7 on USA)

Newcastle - Arsenal (Monday at 3 on USA)

Chelsea - Leicester (Thursday at 3 on Peacock)

Technically, Wolves could still be playing for a spot in Europa competition so we'll add their match with Norwich on Sunday at 9 on Peacock.

We'll be at Subaru Park Saturday at 7:30 as the Union take on the Harrison Pink Cows, more formally known as the NY Red Bulls. Recall the last time they were here when Glesnes provided the YouTubeableMoment of the Year.  This will probably not be a pretty match.