Friday, February 18, 2022

Another Pyrrhic Victory

Want a second opinion?  It was ugly too.  Newcastle get the win but lose Trippier.   Most of the contenders for the coveted fourth spot in the EPL did little to distinguish themselves.


We've Seen This Before

As in, Newcastle get a great result but lose a key player.  The 1-0 win over Aston Villa was an unexpected two or three points but Kieran Trippier picked up a serious injury.  He was somewhat of a surprise starter after hurting his calf last week.  He looked fine and provided the only goal of the match with Aston Villa, a free kick just outside the box that eluded the wall, deflected off Buendia's leg and past Martinez.  We'll make it another Kieran Trippier YouTubeableMoment; watch Buendia move around (he started in a kneeling position) before the ball hits his leg and deflects into the goal.  The bad news is that in the second half, Trippier got stepped on; he left the stadium on crutches.    A scan the next day revealed a fractured fifth metatarsal.  He's out for two to three months.  I realize that the Magpies already got a pretty good return on that investment - 10 points in four matches - but this is a cruel blow.  We have to hope that his attitude rubs off and shows in everybody else's performances.

Joelinton (c) put up some great defensive stats against
Aston Villa, including a team-high 6 tackles
While the overall assessment was that this was an ugly match, there were many solid performances.  Schar and Burn were steady at center back, Joe L. Linton continues his development as a holding midfielder and Ryan Fraser provided plenty of pace on the right wing.  The Magpies are actually four points above the relegation zone and the 538 percentage, which had gotten as high as 79% in January, is now down to 38%.  Yeah, three straight wins will do that.  Let's see what happens without Trippier on the pitch.



Help From My Friends (apologies to the Beatles)

Unlike last week, results elsewhere were mostly favorable for Newcastle.  Man City beat Norwich, Liverpool dispatched Burnley (though not easily) and Brighton took care of Watford.  Thanks guys.  I might have preferred a draw in the Everton - Leeds contest but the Everton 3-1 win was the second best choice as it keeps both of those sides within whispering distance.   Similarly, a Brentford loss would have been best but their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace means they are still close.


Whatever Man United Has Is Contagious

Things haven't been too great at Man United.  Hard to figure out how that team continues to struggle.  Now it looks like Tottenham have come down with the same thing.  And West Ham appears to have milder symptoms of the malaise as well.  All three had less than stellar performances in their chase for the fourth Champions League spot.  Only Wolves, who got a 2-0 win over Spurs, and Arsenal, who had the weekend off, didn't drop points.  

Though it wasn't his fault, Ryan Sessegnon found himself yanked
at 30 minutes with Spurs already down 0-2 to Wolves
 Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Man United continued their unimpressive run in a 1-1 draw to Southampton.  They were equally
unimpressive against Brighton on Tuesday but came away with a 2-0 win anyway, in large part thanks to a red card for DOGSO to Brighton defender Dunk.   West Ham were lucky to come away with a 2-2 draw at Leicester.  They needed a goal in stoppage time from Craig Dawson to get that. Spurs wish they had been unimpressive against Wolves.  They were awful and though it doesn't show on the stat sheet, the 0-2 final looked totally believable while watching.   

Surprisingly lackluster efforts from teams in the thick of a fight for a Champions League spot.  Oh, and Aston Villa may have caught whatever these guys have too.  The 3-3 draw with Leeds was puzzling enough but the performance against Newcastle was nothing like what we expect from them, especially after the addition of Coutinho and Digne.  You can't blame this one on still missing Jack Grealish; it was about multiple players having a bad day.  Gerrard will be earning his money in the next few weeks.  


First of Five for Chelsea?

Probably not, but Chelsea did complete the first step of the mythical quint as they bested the Brazilian club Palmeiras 2-1 in extra time to win the World Club Cup title.  The winning goal came from Kai Havertz on a PK in the 117th minute.  Can't say it was a thrilling match; Palmeiras pretty much went the full Mourinho and was mostly interested in containment and limited counterattacking.

So what about a quintuple for Chelsea?  Well, they are in the League Cup final later this month against Liverpool.  If I understand odds correctly, the bookies are saying they have about a 40% chance of winning that one.  They are still in the FA Cup and their fifth round opponent is Luton Town so they have a good chance to at least get to the quarterfinals there.  In the Champions League, they are paired with Lille in the first knockout round of 16; advancing to the next round is possible.  At 538 they have the Blues with a 10% chance of winning the whole thing.  A long shot for sure but these three seem possible.

But then we get to the biggest stumbling block - the EPL.  They trail Man City by 16 points.  The 538 table shows them with a less than one percent chance of winning the league.  That would be the height of irony - win the other four cups but not the league.  


Do You Know the Way to San Jose?(apologies to Dionne Warwick)

Somewhat out of the blue we read this week that Jamiro Monteiro was sold to the San Jose Earthquakes for various kinds of money that only make sense to MLS accountants.  Except it really wasn't out of the blue.  He was clearly unhappy here.  And, though there were often times when he was the best Union player on the pitch in the last two years, the move makes good sense.  This year it seemed like there was no effective way to have Daniel Gazdag and Monteiro on the pitch at the same time.   Gazdag can go back to playing behind the strikers where his creativity is most useful.  Plus, it probably means more time for academy products Quinn Sullivan and Jack McGlynn.  The financial side of this isn't great as it does not fit the buy low, sell high strategy we've seen recently.  But it was probably the best way to handle a player who didn't want to be here and wasn't the right person for the job anymore.  Excellent additional points about why this move is okay are offered in this article at The Philly Soccer Page.


Age Is Just A Number - No Matter How Big It Is

Nobody picked this winger 
up in the January window?
BFS co-founder Dennis F and his over-30 team -  Sportif Allentown - were in action this weekend at The Proving Grounds taking on an over-40 team from West Chester.  More gray hair and orthopedic devices than you might normally see on the pitch.  Still, highly entertaining soccer - solid skills and tactics.  Yeah, maybe they've lost a step or two but still good pace out there.  Not sure if it was just the age difference but Allentown did look like the better team and advanced metrics at 538 suggest that their 3-1 win was a fair result.  Dennis put in good work on the right wing, recording an assist and creating some scoring opportunities with runs down the right wing.

Sportif Allentown looked solid in win over West Chester












Busy Again

A full weekend slate plus four midweek matches and more Champions League.  Still too much use of Peacock for my liking but better than last week.  

Early to rise for us on Saturday as Newcastle travel to face West Ham at 7:30 on Peacock.  They'll get Matt Targett back but Trippier and Manquillo are out so we're light on right fullback/wingback.  Hard to see the streak continuing but maybe they nick a point given that West Ham can be inconsistent.

The 10 am slot is crowded with five fixtures, none looking all that exciting.  We'll go with Aston Villa hosting Watford and will be expecting that Gerrard will sort out what's wrong and send the Hornets home with no points.  Most competitive match might be Southampton - Everton.  We would expect Liverpool to handle Norwich, Arsenal to avenge their opening day loss to Brentford and Chelsea to take all three at Crystal Palace.  That last one is on USA with the rest on Peacock.

The NBC 12:30 feature is Man City hosting Spurs.  Yikes, that is not the fixture you'd choose to try and sort things out; 538 gives City a 74% chance of winning, Tottenham just 10%.  Ouch.

Two Sunday matches, both on USA, round out the weekend.  At 9 there's Leeds - Man United.  That's more the type of match Man United could use to sort things out.  They did beat Brighton but still didn't look at all that good.  At 11:30 we have Wolves - Leicester; actually this one might be competitive, though Wolves give up goals about once a month so maybe not.

Martinelli will be eligible for rematch with Wolves
Four midweek matches as the league catches up from covid.  Three on Wednesday.  We'll go with Spurs - Burnley, partly out of curiosity to see if Tottenham can improve and partly to hopefully see Burnley drop points.  The other choices are Watford - Crystal Palace (happy to see Palace take all three here) and Liverpool - Leeds.  Thursday has Champions League berth six-pointer between Arsenal - Wolves.  Weird that they face either again so quickly after Arsenal's 1-0 win on 2/10 which featured Martinelli's five second double yellow.

And while all this is going on, there's a full slate of Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday we'll check in on Chelsea - Lille.  Wednesday has the interesting match up of Atletico Madrid vs Man United.  Last week some of the CL matches were on CBS so check your local listings.  If you still haven't gotten enough, there are eight second leg fixtures for Europa League and eight second leg fixtures for Europa Conference League on Thursday.

And Union open a week from Saturday.  Current forecast is partly sunny and 40.

Look, we never said this was going to be easy.  





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