Statement Result

Newcastle grab an unlikely point against West Ham, several teams, including Man United, look to be recovering from their cases of Man United Syndrome.  Alas, one of them isn't Aston Villa.

Playing with Purpose

Dan Burn (l) has shored up the back line for the Magpies

Late in the 1-1 draw with West Ham, I asked to Dennis to remind me that if Newcastle were to surrender a goal and lose the point, the effort was more important than the point.  So often we've seen Newcastle slink into these stadiums, park the bus, and look afraid to play football.  Missing Trippier and Saint-Maximin, I feared the worst.  Not so this time.  They made it clear that they were not going quietly in the mist.  Most impressive was that after falling behind 0-1, they didn't melt away like an early snow.  Instead, they kept plugging away and were rewarded with the equalizer just before halftime; we'll make Joe Willock's toe poke this week's YouTubeableMoment; not the most stunning of goals but who cares.  All I remember about the second half was that it was tense and that we gave as good as we got.  Most of the stats say a draw was the right result; xG actually suggests a slight edge for Newcastle.  When was the last time the Magpies had the greater share of possession in an away game?

Not to diminish the importance of the point for the draw, but the bigger news was the performance.  This is simply a different side than we've seen in a long time.  They look ready to fight to stay up.  Which is good, because it will be a fight.

Some are frustrated, including me a little, that Bruno G has hardly featured to date.  He was, after all, the key January acquisition.  Check out this article which lays out all the reasons that Bruno's slow introduction is in the long-term interest of both Bruno and the club.  This makes sense, especially given that we're getting results from the current line up.  They have the luxury of getting him acclimated so he'll be ready when the things are tougher.  And, as we shall see, despite this run of good results, the relegation fight is not over.

With Friends Like These

Less help in the relegation fight this week.  Especially annoyed at Brighton.  Despite all the kind words I've spilled on them the last month or so, they went and lost 0-3 to Burnley.  At home.  One shot on target?  Thanks for nothing.  I begrudgingly note that even after two consecutive defeats, only Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea have fewer losses than Brighton.

Eff Mee - Defender Ben Mee heads in only goal in Burnley's 1-0
 win over Tottenham, an unfortunate result for Spurs and Newcastle

As annoying as the Brighton result was, Burnley's 1-0 midweek win over Tottenham was much more
harmful.  Though the stats say a draw might have been a fairer result, the Clarets pressed Spurs the whole match and Tottenham had no answer in the final third.

Aston Villa continue to struggle with whatever bug Man United had. The 0-1 loss to Watford was their third straight flat performance.  What's worse, this was the flattest of the three, as in things are not getting better.  The worst thing though is that this was three points for a relegation rival. 

To be fair, others were more than happy to help the Magpies' cause.  Liverpool struggled a bit but eventually put down Norwich 3-1.  Leeds took it on the chin, first from Man United (2-4), then Liverpool (0-6).  The Man United Leeds match was a strange one.   The elements may have been a factor.  Besides torrential rain, the winds regularly pushed the corner flags to a 45 degree angle.   In the first half, MUN built up a  2-0 lead and "looked good value" as they say over there.  That lead got wiped out in two quick minutes early in the second half.  For a while the result looked in doubt.  Then they remembered it was Leeds and scored in the 70th and 88th minute to take the 4-2 win. Southampton put down Everton despite keeper Jordan Pickford's best efforts; the 0-2 loss means the Toffees are level with Newcastle on points.  And Arsenal avenged the season opener loss to Brentford, though the 2-1 win wasn't as dominating as Gunner fans might have wanted.

Up Top

After their wretched performance against Burnley, I'd almost forgotten that Spurs did beat league leader Man City with a masterful performance on Saturday.  At the time, that seemed like a statement win for Tottenham.  Turns out it was just a blip.  The rest of the league appreciated it though. Actually, just about anybody but a Man City fan had to appreciate it.  City had come back twice, the second time on a PK call in stoppage time.  Figure that's that, a draw wouldn't be a terrible result.  Except Tottenham weren't finished as you can see in this game winner from Harry Kane.  Likely to see this one in the top ten matches list at season's end. The significance of the City loss was clearer when Liverpool took care of their game in hand on Wednesday - City's lead was down to just three points.  Their odds at 538 took a hit, dropping from 86% down to 72%.  That still sounds a strong number.  They face each other in Manchester on 4/10.

Gunners huffed and puffed and eventually
 blew the Wolves' house down

With a come-from-behind win over Wolves on Thursday, Arsenal are now the leading candidate for the fourth CL spot.  Wolves had taken an early lead on a shocking mistake by Gabriel.  To their discredit, Wolves looked like they started wasting time from that point on.  Equally to their discredit, Arsenal whined about Wolves wasting time, with Lacazette pointing to his wrist every time Sa dawdled over a goal kick.  The strategy came back to bite the Wolves in the ass, as Pepe slipped one past at 82 minutes and Sa ended up yielding an own goal in stoppage time.  A bit harsh to be tagged with an own goal when you're blocking a shot from close in; how is Sa supposed to know it wasn't on target?  I generally like to cheer on the Wolves but they got what they deserved here.  

So now the biggest gap in the table - 10 points - is between 2nd and 3rd.  At 538, Chelsea still rate highly with a 97% chance of a top four finish.  Arsenal are up to 52%, leaving Man United (22%), Tottenham (13%), West Ham (8%). and Wolves (5%) looking like long shots.  Wait, Brighton show up with a 2% chance, even after the loss to Burnley? 

Outrunning the Bear

Michael B thinks I overestimate Newcastle's danger and end up rooting against underdogs too much.  Maybe, but after years of worshipping at Our Mother of the Perpetually Relegation Threatened, it's hard not to want to see others dragged into the fight.  Retooling the old adage, I realize that we don't have to outrun the bear, just three others.  But I'll feel so much better when Norwich, Watford, and Burnley PLUS Leeds, Everton and Brentford are between us and the bear.  Burnley's consecutive wins make this even more critical.  In fact, both 538 and the SuperComputer now have Newcastle finishing 18th.  So yeah, you will occasionally see me cheering on an Arsenal to beat a Brentford, even though it makes me feel a little dirty.

Somebody Owes Nuno An Apology

If I were a Spurs fan, I would find this article in the Guardian infuriating.  And from wherever he is still cashing Tottenham checks, Nuno Espirito Santo might be permitted a wry smile.  Nuno was supposedly not up to the task of turning Tottenham around so they brought in heavy hitter Antonio Conte.  Now, after a dispiriting loss to Burnley, Conte wonders whether he's up to the task as well?  To borrow one of sportscasting most trivial phrases, are you kidding me?  This one bugs me on so many levels.  That Nuno was sacked so quickly in the first place, that Conte hasn't made the expected difference, that he's whining about it.  The last part is the most galling.

Whither the MLS?

The late start for the World Cup (November 17) led the MLS to push up the start of the 2022 season so things get under way this Saturday.  So what do we think of the Union's chances this year?

Well, we dealt away our leading goal scorer (shuhBILLkoh) and our assist leader (Monteiro).  Is that the best strategy for a side that features excellent attacking but can be lacking on the finishing?  We'll go with this is going to be okay.  Of course, this assumes that Sergio Santos stays healthy, Julian Carranza develops as expected and Mikael Uhre actually gets into the US (another Union player with visa problems - [late update - he's expected in Philly as on 2/25 though not clear he will play this weekend]).  Not trivial assumptions I realize.  As for the midfield,  I thought Gazdag worked well as the number 10 after slowly adapting to MLS; others are less optimistic (see here - also you might want to check out the reason that Charlotte will not win the Supporters Shield).  The back line is solid, especially now that we hear that Wagner is not heading to Europe; Andre Blake will continue to serve us well in goal.  We have a bevy of academy products; hopefully some will move from the prospect category into established regulars, after they get their drivers licenses of course.  Things in the MLS are so fluid predicting a placing is difficult but my guess would be a top four finish.

As for the larger picture, I have no clue.  I offer some articles here, here, and here for your perusal.  Also, the 538 rankings are here; looks like that's a prediction of 5th place in the East for the Union.

The View from Europe

Pretty good results for the EPL sides in the first legs of the Round of 16 matches.  Man City (5-0 over Sporting) and Liverpool (2-0 over Inter) will bring home healthy leads for their second legs.  Chelsea have a 2-0 advantage over Lille as they head to France.  Man United have work to do but at least will bring a 1-1 result against Atletico Madrid home to Old Trafford; that one should be tight.  Other second leg match ups that look great are Real Madrid -PSG (0-1) and Juventus - Villareal (1-1).  Since the away goal rule was scrapped this year, plenty of chances for extra time and maybe kicks from the spot.  Matches are 3/8-9 and 3/15-16.

 

EPL, MLS and Carabao Cup Final

Jeff H and I are more likely to be at Subaru Park
Saturday than our new striker Mikael Uhre
Photo:Kim Ahrens / Philadelphia Union

Yikes, this is a scheduling nightmare.  Union home opener against Minnesota is at 1 pm.  They will likely feel right at home in the 36 degree weather.  The early start time means that Jeff H and I will need to depart East Mt. Airy by about 11:30.  But, but, Newcastle's relegation six-pointer with Brentford won't be over yet.  Maybe the Magpies will have such a big lead it will be okay.  Right, sure.  Given Burnley's resurgence, this is a must-draw fixture.  Sure a win would be best but important not to let the Bees get too far ahead.

Aston Villa play Brighton at the same time as the Newcastle fixture so I won't see that.   At least Everton - MCI  is s the feature 12:30 NBC match so I can watch that on dvr later Saturday night. Wrong.  That's on Peacock.  How about a little help here?  

Wait, Dennis's dog Kaya is spending some time with us and is going to need a good walk Saturday morning.  How do I fit that in around between Tottenham - Leeds at 7:30 Saturday morning and the Newcastle match?  Even though I can dvr the Man United - Watford match (10 am Saturday on USA), I probably won't have a chance to watch it; just as well, as it's another case of rooting for the big bad club over an underdog.  No chance I'll see Crystal Palace - Burnley, also at 10 am on Peacock; I can really use the Eagles slowing down Burnley's charge.  

First world problems, I know.

Sunday will be easier.  A good six-pointer for the Champions League spot between West Ham and Wolves at 9 am (on USA, thank you) and the Carabao Cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool at 11:30 (streaming on ESPN+).  

Just one midweek match up but it's of great importance to Newcastle.  This will be Burnley's other game in hand, a home fixture against Leicester.  Can't really count on the Foxes for much help here.

What's the expression, March comes in like a relegation candidate and leaves like a slightly more likely relegation candidate?  Or something like that.