You Cannot Lose If You Do Not Play

The good news is that neither Newcastle nor Aston Villa dropped any points this weekend.  Of course the bad news that neither played because of the covid outbreak inside the Newcastle team.  Looks like up to five players or employees tested positive at some point and the training ground was closed through Monday.  Saturday's fixture with West Brom was also apparently in doubt.  Fortunately, they were able to open the facilities on Tuesday and the match is still on.  Leaguewide, the number of positive tests for the last five weeks are 4, 16, 8, 10,and 14; these are out of approximately 1,500 tests per week so the positivity rate is actually pretty low.  This has been a BFS coronavirus special update and we now return you to your regular blog.

Jose doesn't need a license to park the bus

We'll start with the North London derby, which we have to classify as disappointing for the neutral. Spurs fans don't care and will no doubt be thrilled with the 2-0 win over Arsenal.  The first half was actually pretty good. Mourinho's side was more than happy to concede possession to the Gunners but Spurs generated enough solid counterattacks to keep things interesting.  Well, more than interesting in that they got two goals from those counters.  Check out this shot from Son, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  When Kane added a second in first half stoppage time, you knew Arsenal were in trouble.  Indeed, Mourinho reined in the troops and though Arsenal's possession and position advantage would improve, no goals were forthcoming.  BFS Tactics Consultant Alex S sent us the picture(left) which aptly describes the second half tactic known colloquially as "parking the bus."  Of course the stats look ridiculous - possession 30/70, shots 5/11, shots on target 3/2, and expected goals .3/1.5.  Here's the thing though, most of that expected goal difference is based on Non-shot expected goals, which means that while Arsenal got the ball into dangerous locations, they just couldn't generate good shots.  So we're left with the thought that while maybe Tottenham were a little lucky in that Son hit that incredible shot, this result was exactly how Mourinho had mapped it out.  Damn, it hurts to give him credit.

You Can't Go Home Again

But you can return with a different team and score. Patrick Bamford was on the Chelsea roster for a while but spent most of his time on loan and never featured for the club.  That probably made his goal at Stamford Bridge in the 4th minute all that much sweeter.  You just have to love a team like this that plays attacking football regardless of the odds.  And Leeds gave the Blues all they could want for the full 90 minutes. But quality will out as they say and Chelsea ground out a 3-1 win that took them to the top of the table on Saturday.  Man City also ground out a 2-0 win against Fulham that wasn't actually as close as the score suggests.  They are slowly creeping their way back up the standings.  Liverpool finally got a VAR decision to go their way and pretty much steamrollered Wolves on the way to a 4-0 lead.  

Maybe underdogs giving the favored sides a tough time was the weekend's theme.  We warned Everton about playing at Turf Moor but did they listen? No, and they failed their second straight pop quiz as Burnley held them to a 1-1 draw.  Sheffield United looked set to grab a desperately needed point against Leicester until Jamie Vardy destroyed that idea with a 90th minute goal.  West Ham led Man United into the 65th minute before Paul Pogba's laser shot leveled things.  Greenwood added a second three minutes later and Rashford capped the scoring with another 10 minutes after that.  So what is it with the Red Devils and the first half?  They got away with it twice in EPL action but when they let RB Leipzig get up 3-0 in Champions League action, no amount of furious comeback could save them. PS - they finished 3rd in the group and are dropping back into Europa League.  In the non-derby derby, Brighton played well enough to earn a draw against Southampton, except for the little matter of the late foul in the box.  Danny Ings coolly converted that for a 2-1 win for the Saints.

He Would Look Good in Forest Green 

Two goals in two games for Gallagher

Conor Gallagher, on loan from Chelsea, scored for the second consecutive week for West Brom.  I tried to get him on loan for my FM Forest Green side but Chelsea basically said we were not good enough.  Playing in League One, I'm used to that.  We are on track for promotion to the Championship Division and will try again next year.  Gallagher's goal was about the only good thing that happened to West Brom in their 1-5 thrashing at the hands of Crystal Palace.  Playing short a man for more than half the match didn't help.  

One Out of Two Ain't Bad

Ain't great either but at least one of the MLS conference finals was exciting.  That would not be the Columbus 1-0 win over New England.  Can't really remember much about that except wishing the Carlos Gil played for somebody else so I could root for him more fully.

The Western final was much more interesting.  Minnesota played Seattle surprisingly tough, especially in the Sounders home venue.  A free kick from Reynoso gave the Loons a 1-0 first half lead.  Dibassy's header at 67 minutes doubled the lead and Minnesota looked good for the upset.  Enter substitute Will Bruin.  The boxscore says he entered the match at the 75th minute and scored in the 75th minute.  Talk about an impact sub.  So that set up a barnburner finish.  When Ruidiax leveled things in the 89th minute, I headed to the stove to make some tea to drink during the extra time and possible penalty shootout.  I never even got the water started as Gustav Svensson (also a late sub) slipped a header past the Minnesota keeper in stoppage time.  You can see that goal here.  I feel a little bad for Minnesota but have to say Seattle are probably the better team.  Definitely a welcome view after some of the second and third round boredom.

The 12 14 Days of Christmas

With Boxing Day falling on a Saturday (a regular match day), the holiday period will not be as congested as in previous years.  Our designated 14 Days of Christmas will run from December 19 to January 2, during which time, coronavirus willing, each team will play three matches.  Usually they'd have four matches in that time frame.  We thought about including the upcoming mid-week matches in the mix but then it would be the 19 Days of Christmas and that was getting unwieldy.  We will of course provide our exclusive holiday ratings to assess how your team did.

Extended Weekend

EPL will cram in an extra match week here, with one set of matches Friday-Sunday and a second set Tuesday-Thursday.  Remind me to clear my work calendar.  The bad news is that with such a tight schedule, there will be some concurrent matches.  As of this writing, I didn't see network assignments for the week day games so you'll have to check your local listings.

We of course will be taking in Newcastle-West Brom Saturday at 10 am on Peacock and Leeds-Newcastle on Wednesday at 1 pm.  I'd like to think there's at least four points there.  Anything other than a win hosting the Baggies is a problem.  Leeds away could be difficult so I'm keeping expectations down there; a draw would be great.  We'll also be looking in on Aston Villa when they travel to Wolves on Saturday at 7:30 on Peacock and when they host Burnley at 1 pm on Thursday.  A point for the Villans at Molineux would be great and they'll be thinking all three at home to the Clarets.  

The two top matches on the list look to be the Manchester derby at 12:30 on Saturday on NBC and Liverpool - Tottenham at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Pending the weekend's results, the latter could be for undisputed possession of first place.  Other matches to consider include Everton - Chelsea at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock, Wolves - Chelsea at 1 pm on Tuesday, and Arsenal - Southampton at 1 pm on Wednesday.  We mention the latter as that is one of those reality check type fixtures.  The Saints will want to prove their 5th place standing is no fluke and the Gunners will be looking to show they aren't as bad as they've played so far this year (15th place?).  And I'll recommend Friday's 3 pm contest between Leeds and West Ham on NBCSN for two reasons.  First, it looks to be a very competitive contest.  Second, what else are you going to be doing late on a December Friday afternoon?

Don't forget the MLS title match with Columbus - Seattle at 8:30 on Saturday night on Fox.  Notably, 538 has this at 50/50.  Have reasonably high expectations for a good contest here.

Only two footballless days in the next 11 days.  This is a good thing as the days get shorter.