Another One Santa Christmas

Newcastle opened the 17-day 4-match Holiday fixture period with a disappointing draw home to a shorthanded Fulham.  The worst part is that this will likely be the high point of the "festive" season for the Magpies.  With matches still to go versus Man City, Liverpool and Leicester, the holiday point gathering may be done for Newcastle.  In other words, Newcastle are heading for another one Santa (out of five) rating for the holidays.

The own goal off Ritchie was not wholly undeserved for Fulham

The Cottagers clearly had the run of play in the first half and though the own goal off Matt Ritchie was unlucky, the 1-0 halftime lead for Fulham was deserved.  Not much better in the second half until a beautiful pass from Almiron sprung Wilson in on goal.  Fulham defender Joachim Andersen fouled him.  VAR was necessary to determine whether 1) the foul was inside the 18 and 2) whether this was DOGSO.  The answer to both questions was it is a close call but yes.  Wilson dispatched the PK and for a few minutes hopes of snatching all three points here seemed realistic.  But the Magpies never really pressed their advantage and even had some scary moments around their own goal.  In fact, the 1-1 result is a lucky one for Newcastle.  

Frustration was tempered a little by the club's struggles with covid.  Tuesday brought news that those challenges were greater than I had realized.  I thought that Lascelles and Saint Maximin had been missing due to nagging injuries.  This article says the issue is lingering effects of the virus.  At least five players were sick at some point, which has to have taken a physical and mental toll on the team.  Of course, in some ways, the frustration turns to how/why was the outbreak so bad.  

Naughty or Nice

Referees were busy sorting out the naughty and nice this weekend, giving out 30 yellows and three reds to the naughty. Besides the red card for Fulham, Graham Scott also showed four yellows in that one.  Highest output for cards was Brighton - Sheffield United, where Peter Bankes gave the Blades' John Lundstram a red but also showed six yellows.  Brighton took 47 minutes to score against shorthanded Sheffield and the 1-1 draw didn't help either side.  Chris Wilder once again saw points slip away in the closing stages.

Another cardfest was the Aston Villa 3-0 win over West Brom, in which the Baggies Jake Livermore was sent off at 37 minutes and three others got yellows.  The Villans were kind to the home side, content with their 1-0 lead for much of the match, only adding two very late.  Dennis didn't think much of the strategy and would have preferred an insurance goal much earlier than 84 minutes.

There were four yellows each in the Man City - Southampton, Tottenham - Leicester, and Everton-Arsenal contests. Man City scored early but the Saints stayed in the contest the whole way and the 1-0 final is reflective of how tight the match was.  The bad news for Southampton was Danny Ings coming off with a hamstring injury.  I couldn't find a timeline for his return but he's a big miss for them.  Spurs - Leicester was a bit tepid for the neutral, who might have expected a more wide open, high scoring affair.  The Foxes managed a PK from Vardy and an own goal from Alderweireld in a 2-0 win in a match that never seemed to get going.

At Everton, Arsenal's 1-2 loss did nothing for Mikel Arteta's prospects of making it to the new year as manager.  With the score 2-1 at halftime, I speculated that a clerk in Arsenal's home office was already working on a draft press release of Arteta's sacking.  Dennis suggested that, given how far the Gunners have fallen, this needed to go to Monty Python levels, and that the clerk should be sacked, the person who announced that the clerk was sacked should be sacked, etc.  Offering an opposing view, Jamie Garragher suggests here that Arteta deserves more time:

But they need a few more players in the January transfer window. If Arteta can get six or seven players in then he can be judged on the job that he's doing.

What, only six or seven new players?  Why not the whole team?  That's some awesome analysis.  On the other hand, both Dennis and Jamie may have a larger point here.  The depth of this dip is so large can it really be pinned on Arteta?  Maybe this is indeed an organizational problem.

In contrast to other contests, there were no cards in Chelsea's convincing 3-0 win over West Ham.  That was a step in the right direction for the Blues.  Wolves do seem to really miss Jimenez and stumbled to a 1-2 loss at Burnley, who were probably never as bad as they seemed earlier this season.

Transitive Property

1) Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 7-0.  Aston Villa beat Liverpool 7-2.  Therefore, Aston Villa will beat Palace 14-2

2) Leeds beat Newcastle 5-2.  Man United beat Leeds 6-2.  Therefore, Man United will beat Newcastle 11-4

Not so sure about the former but the latter does seem a real possibility.  Well, except for Newcastle scoring 4.

The highlight of the Liverpool match was the Reds taking the "foot off the gas" by replacing Sadio Mane' with Salah at 57 minutes with the score 4-0.  The Egyptian proceeded to get an assist, then two goals of his own to complete the rout.  Also, the rout wiped out Palace's six-goal differential advantage over Newcastle and dropped them below the Magpies in the table.

In the Man United match, I was struck by the total inability of Leeds to do anything but attack, regardless of the score.  Game highlights can be seen here.  They simply don't know any other way.  As for Man United, we note the trend of their first goal coming earlier and earlier  (65th minute vs Southampton, 26th minute vs Sheffield United, 2nd minute vs Leeds); we project that they will have a 1-0 lead before their Boxing Day match with Leicester even kicks off.  Kind of like when Sir Alex was in charge.

This Isn't a Body Building Competition

Baby oil: better than tear-away jerseys

Ever noticed how Adama Traore's arms seem to glisten, like they've been oiled?  Well, that's because they have been.  Traore has suffered from shoulder problems and defenders grabbing at his arms to deal with his pace hasn't helped.  They got him a shoulder brace but found that lubricating his arms with baby oil makes it harder for opponents to grab him.  I am not making this up.   He may need to consider changing brands though.  After last year's incredible season, he has yet to record an assist or goal.

Because You Asked

To prove that we do read the comments section, we did look at the managerial careers of Sam Allardyce, Steve Bruce and David Moyes.  Bruce has had 11 posts with 10 different teams (twice at Wigan!?) while Allardyce has managed 11 different squads.  Neither have ever led a "top six" side. Both have managed Sunderland, Newcastle and Crystal Palace.  Both have numerous instances of tenures that didn't last 100 games (Bruce 7, Allardyce 6).  We have to give a slight edge to Allardyce, whose career has lately seen more Premier League positions, while Bruce seems to shuffle back and forth between the first and second tier.  

Moyes doesn't really belong in this group as he's only had seven gigs with six clubs (in his second spell at West Ham).  Plus, he had one with a top six (Man United) side and he's managed outside England (Real Sociedad).  Therefore, we're reluctant to put him in the journeyman manager category just yet.  

Meanwhile at the North Pole

BFS Travel Coordinator Jeff K sends us this story about a team in Norway.  Bodo/Glimt (not a character in Star Wars spin-off The Mandalorian) recently won its first Norwegian championship.  Pretty cool for a team located just north of the Arctic Circle.  Gotta love a team that has fans willing to rent cherry pickers just so they could watch their side play during the pandemic restrictions.  As Jeff notes, a feel good soccer story.

On Your Marks, Get Set, Watch

Twenty matches in five days starting Saturday.  Frankly, not every one is a classic and there are some concurrent matches so you may be forgiven if you skip a few.

Saturday is packed from beginning to end, if only because both BFS sides are in action.  The whole thing opens with the best match of the 20 - Leicester vs Man United at 7:30 on NBCSN.  Despite looking like two different teams the whole season, there is Man United sitting third in the table, with a game in hand no less.  Leicester have had some slips but have worked their way to second place.  At 538 they give a slight edge to Man United.  This one looks good and hope it doesn't disappoint.

We'll move right on to Aston Villa - Crystal Palace at 10 am on NBCSN; this looks like a good chance for the Villans to establish their upper mid-table credentials.  Just keep going as the NBC feature match is Arsenal hosting Chelsea on NBC.  After Arsenal's League Cup embarrassment against Man City, this may be Arteta's last chance; Chelsea have slipped occasionally but look pretty solid.

Saturday ends with an expected slaughter of Magpies (similar to a murder of crows?) as Newcastle travel to the Etihad to face Man City (3 pm on NBCSN); 538 has this as 89/2/9, meaning Newcastle have a 2% chance of winning but a solid 9% of getting a draw.

Can't say the next four days are quite as packed.  We'll definitely take in Aston Villa as they travel to Chelsea (Monday at 12:30 on NBCSN) and Newcastle's second projected beat down as they host Liverpool on Wednesday (3 pm on NBCSN); that one's only 66/14/19 in favor of the Reds.

A few others that catch our eye include:

Wolves - Tottenham Sunday at 2:15 pm on NBCSN

Everton - Man City Monday at 3 pm on Peacock

Brighton - Arsenal Tuesday at 1 pm on NBCSN (projected closest match of week plus maybe Arteta's last gasp or new manager's first outing)

The whole schedule is here if none of these float your boat.  Watch, but do so with proper social distancing.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.