Luck of the Geordies?

Four more unexpected points as Newcastle continue to get results using smoke and mirrors.   A pile of weekend and midweek action plus the European Championships draw.


Sometimes It Pays To Get Up Early

Jetro Willems goal at 25 minutes leveled the match at 1-1

Yikes, on Saturday not only were the Magpies going to have a rough go of it, we had to get up at 7:30 to watch.  As expected, the Citizens dominated play and it was no surprise when they took the lead at 22 minutes.  What was a surprise was when Willems leveled things just three minutes later on an excellent feed from Almiron (his first assist ever for Newcastle).  Then it was back to regular programming with Man City having the run of play and Newcastle doing their best to withstand the pressure.  Which they did pretty well.  So DeBruyne's brilliant strike at 82 minutes was at once understandable but also deflating.  I was totally unprepared for the Newcastle response just six minutes later when Atsu put a free kick outside the box which Shelvey rifled into the net to tie things up again. Pandemonium.  The video from the Gallowgate Stands is this week's YouTubeableMoment; because we are Magpie-centric here at BFS, here's the TV replay.

Several thoughts.  First, despite pre-game speculation of wholesale line-up changes, Steve Bruce's only tweak to the starting eleven was Manquillo in place of the injured Yedlin.  Most surprising for me was that he left Shelvey in despite Longstaff's availability.  Yeah, that worked out okay.  Almiron was also rumored to be headed for the bench in favor of Atsu but he started and contributed an assist.  Dummett started despite a bad game against Aston Villa and looked steady in the back three.  So credit to Steve Bruce for personnel decisions that worked out.

Fast forward to Thursday at Bramall Lane where Newcastle took on Sheffield, the second luckiest side this year.  Basically more of the same.  Little possession; in fact, Newcastle looked more helpless with the ball than against Man City.  But there was a cross from Manquillo that Saint-Maximin deposited into the net for his first goal in a Magpie shirt.  Also, Dubravka was superb in net so maybe sometimes it's not just luck.  Newcastle got a second goal from leading scorer Shelvey on a nice pass from Andy Carroll.  The AR had raised the flag but there was no whistle from Stuart Atwell so Shelvey continued onto the goal and beat the keeper.  VAR showed that Shelvey was onside and the goal counted.  There was much whining from the Sheffield side.  Enough, you play to the whistle.  If you don't know that the raised flag from the AR is not the definitive call on offside by now, you deserve what you get.  In fact, the Stuart Atwell had said as much to Shelvey earlier in the game.  Newcastle defending was well-organized and resolute so who's to say they didn't earn these points?

Except, let's be honest. The Magpies totally stole these points.  Man City had 76% of possession, outshot Newcastle 24 to 6, shots on target were 9 to 3 and corners were 10 to 1.  The stats at fivethirtyeight are even more one-sided.  On paper this was a blowout.  Pretty much the same against Sheffield United.  I'll argue that in part these results are a function of Newcastle defending and taking advantage of the goal scoring opportunities presented.  Is that pure luck?  Dennis says maybe not but is this pattern sustainable?  Hmm, probably not.  Still, there we are 11th in the table, closer to 5th than the relegation zone.


We Report, Owners Sack

Three of the six managers mentioned in last week's post are gone.  Of course, one (Emery) didn't even make to the post's publication.  Results since then have taken care of two more.

Flores - I don't often coach EPL sides but when
I do, I get sacked mid-season

Watford had led relegation rival Southampton for most of the match, meaning Ralph Hasenhuttl was
on the hot seat.  But the Saints scored at 78 and 83 minutes to turn the tables and Quique Sanchez Flores was the one who got axed.

Marco Silva survived the weekend after a nightmare loss against Leicester.  The Toffees had basically stifled Leicester and carried a 1-0 lead well into the second half.  Although Jamie Vardy tied things at 68 minutes a draw still appeared likely.  Then in the 4th minute of stoppage time, Iheanacho took a pass that split Everton defenders and put it past Pickford for an apparent game winner.  Except the call on the field was offside.  Then it was overruled by VAR and Everton was saddled with another loss.  Club officials held off firing Silva, apparently unwilling to make a change before Wednesday's Merseyside derby.  The 5-2 loss at Anfield was enough for them to pull the trigger.

Manuel Pelligrini is hanging by a thread.  West Ham did get a surprise 1-0 win over Chelsea but then fell 0-2 to Wolves mid-week.  As of posting, he is still employed.

Old Gunner Solskjaer didn't do himself any favors with a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa, but saw his stock rise considerably after a 2-1 win over Tottenham on Wednesday.  We thought the PK on Sissoko that was the difference in that match was kind of harsh.  On the replay it wasn't obvious that there was any contact.  But VAR was probably right to leave the call alone as it wasn't obvious that there wasn't any contact either.  Probably should leave Ole Gunnar alone anyway; United are unbeaten in last four and have climbed to 6th in the table.

Ralph Hasenhuttl's Southampton side got wins over relegation rivals Watford and Norwich so he's safe for awhile.


Random Observations

So much action to digest, I'm left to make one-off comments.

Southampton have two wins and a draw in last three and are now a whole point outside the relegation zone; on the one hand that's impressive but they must have been buried to get that many points and barely make it out

Wolves last loss was 9/14 vs Chelsea; that's 20 points in 10 matches so they are 5th in the table, six behind Chelsea

It doesn't take much of a streak to move you up the table; Crystal Palace win two in a row and move to 7th.  The second was a 1-0 win over Bournemouth despite playing down a man for about 70 minutes 

Spurs seemed to be specializing in building three goal leads, then surrendering two late in the match, repeating that formula in a home win over Bournemouth

Sticking it to the Mans - we note that BFS sides Newcastle and Aston Villa both got draws on the weekend against the Manchester teams 

Mourinho finds that maybe you can't go home again as he took his first defeat as Spurs manager in a 1-2 loss at Old Trafford

The new boss at Arsenal doesn't seem to be faring any better than the old boss as they get a road draw at Norwich and a home loss to Brighton; the Gunners are 10 points out of fourth 

Elsewhere, Liverpool and Leicester just keep on winning 

Groups of Death, Pestilence and Plague

The groups were drawn for the 2020 European Championships on Saturday. Details can be had here. Immediate attention went to Group F as the quintessential definition of The Group of Death.  Hard to argue about that moniker applying to a group that includes reigning World Champs France, reigning Euro Champs Portugal and Germany.  No matter that the fourth will be one of North Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia or Kosovo; getting out of that group will be tough.

But there are some other tough draws as well - Groups of Near Fatal Illness maybe.  Group E with Spain (8th in current FIFA rankings), Sweden (17) and Poland (19) is no picnic; their fourth will be one of Slovakia, Ireland, North Ireland or Bosnia & Herzegovina.  Or what about Group A with Switzerland (12), Italy (13), Wales (22) and Turkey (29)?

Complicating the handicapping somewhat is the expanded format.  With 24 teams and six groups, the first two in each group automatically will advance plus the four best third place teams.  I can't wait to read the tiebreaking procedures for that.  So it's possible that France, Portugal and Germany could advance to the knockout stage. 


No Wonder They Win

Anybody else notice that a key passing combination for Man City is Sterling Silva?


EPL and Champions League

Just keep right on watching - games on from Saturday to Thursday if you're so inclined, or reclined on the couch as the case may be.

Manchester derby on Saturday at 12:30 looks like the highlight.  Except maybe not.  At 538,  they are not expecting much of a contest, listing City with an 80% chance of winning.  Ouch.  It's been moved to NBCSN because PGA Golf is going to be on NBC (really?).

Saturday's 7:30 wake up match is car crash Everton hosting Chelsea.  No permanent replacement for Silva has been named so Duncan Ferguson, a current member of the coaching staff, will be in charge.  Just three matches at 10 am.  Bournemouth - Liverpool is the TV game; the Cherries (who looked like Lemons in their yellow away kit at Selhurst Park) have lost four in a row and this does not look like a fixture to end that streak.  Your choices on NBC Gold are Spurs - Burnley and Watford - Crystal Palace.  We'll probably go with Spurs, though the latter may be more competitive.

Four more matches on Sunday but three at 9 am.  We'll be taking in Newcastle - Southampton on NBC Gold.  This is a relegation six-pointer that is more crucial for the Saints, though it would give Newcastle a bigger cushion.  It's a match the Magpies really should be winning but they are so mercurial; secretly, I would take a draw here.  The TV game is Aston Villa - Leicester.  Norwich - Sheffield United is the other 9 am match.  All alone on TV at 11:30 is Brighton - Wolves, which looks like it might be fun.  The weekend concludes Monday afternoon with a London derby between West Ham and Arsenal.  Both of these squads have been underperforming and 538 has it as a close contest.  Also could be Pelligrini's last.

Champions League contests on Tuesday include Red Bull - Liverpool and Chelsea - Lille.  Liverpool advance with a win or draw; you can see that one at 12:55 on TNT.  Chelsea probably need to win to be assured of moving to the knockout stage; that's at 3 pm but looks to be available only by streaming.  Man City (Dinamo Zagreb) and Tottenham (Bayern) play on Wednesday but they have already punched their tickets to the knockout stage.  City is on TV at 12:55 on TNT but Spurs looks like streaming only at 3 pm.

Wolves Man-ager Nuno - having it all

We haven't talked much (at all?) about the Europa League, mostly because it's sole purpose seems to be to tire out mid-table teams with mid-week travel all over Europe so they struggle in league competition.  Group stage competition ends this Thursday.  Wolves and Man United are into the knockout round.  Arsenal, which face Standard Leige, need a win or draw to be sure of advancing.  They had been doing well but a draw and loss in the last two matches left them exposed.  So Wolves are kicking ass in the league despite playing in Europa League?  Maybe Nuno Espirito Santo is more than just the "Best Beard in the EPL."

I love December...