Points Over Performance

Well we knew the Magpies luck would run out someday.  Except it wasn't last Sunday.  Some surprises over the weekend.  And all seven EPL sides advanced to the knockout stages of European competition.

Fernandez after winning goal

Once again, Newcastle stumbled out of the blocks, looking unlikely to generate any offense of their own.  Fortunately, Martin Dubravka did some more fine keeping to keep things scoreless.  Dennis notes "he might just be really good."  But when Southampton scored early in the second half, I had no confidence that the Magpies would respond.  Bruce replaced Joelinton with Carroll and was rewarded when the Bunned One sent a great cross that our goal scoring machine Jonjo Shelvey headed in to level the match.  Okay, a draw wouldn't be bad.  Bruce then replaced Almiron with Sean Longstaff.  He fired a great shot from the top of the box that Alex McCarthy could only parry away, right onto the foot of Frederico Fernandez, who did not miss from three yards out.  Hmm, stealing another 2-1 victory.

Some downsides here.  Saint-Maximin hurt his hamstring late and appears to be out until January.  Also, Joelinton looked lost out there.  Sure, he hasn't exactly been provided the best service but his touch was awful.  He might just not be very good and maybe we see Andy Carroll start this weekend.  The biggest issue is that they are still getting pretty much outplayed and yet getting positive results.  They are:

17th in goals scored
19th in shots
17th in shots on target
14th in goal differential
17th in shots allowed
14th in shots on target allowed
9th in goals allowed

Okay, that last one isn't too bad.  I looked at some "efficiency" type numbers but not much help there.  Newcastle are basically in the middle of the pack on things like goals per shot, goals per shots on target and shots on target per shot.  They are pretty high up (that is, low percentage) in goals allowed per shots on target allowed, which may speak to the work of Dubravka.  So we are left with the continuing conclusion that there's a lot of luck here.  Check out this table, which suggests essentially the same conclusion we reached before.  Based on expected goals, Newcastle would be in last place.

But Newcastle are 11th in the table so stop complaining right?  As both announcers pointed at a various stages of Sunday's game, Newcastle are about points, not performance.

"I love this game" - Manager Duncan Ferguson celebrates
 an Everton goal against Chelsea

Two surprises in the form of an Everton 3-1 win over Chelsea. and a Man United 2-1 derby win. Stats say maybe the Toffees stole this one but while watching it I sure felt they were the better side.  Same for the Red Devils; they spent most of the match up 2-0 even though the stats say City dominated.  A late City goal made it a little tight towards the end but it seemed like a masterful performance for United.

Three wrongs make a retake

Wolves - Brighton was the lively contest I had anticipated - for the first half.  But after a rousing 2-2 opening, the second half was pretty flat, with the match ending in a 2-2 draw.  My favorite moment was late when a Wolves player executed a foul throw (lifted his back foot) from the wrong location (a good 10 yards closer than he should have been) while being interfered with by a Brighton player (picture left). Spurs scored on Burnley early and often in a 5-0 thrashing which has everybody breathing easier at the New White Hart Lane.  Arsenal spotted West Ham a goal, then scored three of their own in 10 minutes to take that London derby relatively easily.  In other news, Liverpool (handing Bournemouth a fifth straight loss) and Leicester just keep winning.


He...Could...Go...All...The...Way

Lots of good choices this week but we'll go with Heung-Min Son's 102 yard kickoff return for a touchdown incredible run from his own 18 as this week's YouTubeableMoment. Happy Michael B?  The video does give one a sense of how many bloody cameras they have on these matches.


The Same In Any Language (apologies to I Nine)

BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S is not traveling but did send along this video (explicit language!) of American Jesse Marsch delivering a bilingual halftime talk to his RB Salzburg squad. They were down 1-3 at the time to Liverpool in a Champions League group stage match.  Maybe it helped because they tied the match up by 60 minutes before ultimately losing 3-4.  I take away two things.  First, as noted by the poster, see how the initial focus is an attitude adjustment before turning to the tactical elements.  Second, I wasn't aware that I knew the German word for f***.


EPL Teams Move On

Liverpool and Chelsea came through when they needed to and secured their berths in the knockout stage.  RB Salzburg played Liverpool tough for almost 60 minutes (they probably did not want a repeat of the halftime talk referenced above) but goals in rapid succession at 58 and 59 minutes ended any hopes of advancing.  Chelsea got on Lille early and held on for a 2-1 win to send them on.  City won against Dinamo Zagreb but they were already moving on while Spurs fell to Bayern but they were also already set for the knockout rounds.

In the Miss Congeniality Contest Europa League, Wolves, Man United and Arsenal got results sufficient to move them to the knockout stage of that competition.


You Can't Make Me Carabao It Cup

Turns out last week I left out two days of December action.  The Carabao Cup quarterfinals are on 12/17 and 12/18.   So there's football 21 days out of 31 this month and your longest drought will be 12/23-12/25.  On Tuesday Aston Villa will host Liverpool, who have already said they will be using a reserve squad since they are playing in the FIFA Club World Cup the following day (more on that below).  A likely squad listing is offered here.  All household names - if you live in their houses.  The other matches are on Wednesday and include Everton - Leicester, Oxford United - Man City, and Man United - Colchester.  Looks like ESPN+, i.e. streaming only for all four matches.


FIFA Club World Cup

I became aware of this competition only through Football Manager after Chester won the Champions League.  It brings together the six continental champions and throws in the winner of the host country's league just for laughs.  This year's line-up includes:

Flamengo - South America
Monterrey - North America
Liverpool - Europe
Al-Hilal - Asia
Esperance de Tunis - Africa
Hienghene Sport - Oceania
Al- Sadd - Qatar (host)

We note that Antarctica is not represented.  Details on the competition can be had here.  This seems like a sharks and minnows situation and indeed the European entrant has won the cup 11 of 15 times.  The South American teams have the other four wins.  Still, we know from Jurgen Klopp's personnel choices that this competition is still a higher priority than the Carabao League Cup.


Regular Stuff

But those other competitions only happen after some good ol' league play.  Except, the match ups aren't exactly going to blow you away.  My pick for the weekend is Wolves - Tottenham at 9 am Sunday morning on NBCSN.  Spurs are favored even on the road here but this should be a close contest.

Newcastle make a tough trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley.  The Clarets are probably still smarting from the 0-5 thrashing by Tottenham so that's not good.  I wouldn't look for more than three goals total here and that might be a stretch.  In the unlikely event you feel compelled to watch what is likely to be an ugly (though probably close) match, this one's on NBC Gold at 10 am on Saturday.

Saturday starts at 7:30 (NBCSN) with what looks like a massacre as Liverpool host Watford. The Reds average three goals per game at home vs Watford's .6 per game on the road.  At 538, they have Liverpool at 80% likely to win.  But I'll still watch.

The other 10 am matches besides Newcastle don't exactly stir the blood either.  TV game is Chelsea - Bournemouth; The Blues are enigmatic but the Cherries are on a five match losing streak.  You could opt for Leicester - Norwich or Sheffield United - Aston Villa on Gold.  Actually, the latter might be a decent watch.  The Saturday "feature" NBC match at 12:30 is Southampton - West Ham.  The primary interest there might be that the losing coach could find himself sacked by Monday morning. Hard to believe Manuel Pellegrini would survive should West Ham lose; Ralph Hasenhuttl might have a little more slack but a home loss to a relegation rival won't look good on the resume.

Sunday's matches besides Wolves - Spurs have some potential.  Man United host Everton at 9 am (NBC Gold) and Man City travel to face Arsenal at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Monday's bonus match is Crystal Palace versus Brighton at BFS's second favorite venue, Selhurst Park; that's at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Ah, Selhurst Park in December.  Reminds me of when I was a mere lad of 60.