Prepare For A Little Withdrawal

With the Euros and Copa America done plus the MLS moving out of league play for five weeks, things will feel very slow until the EPL returns on August 16th.  

Can't Complain About the Reign in Spain

Spain are back on top of Europe again

They were the most consistent side in the tournament.  Their 2-1 win over England was by no means decisive but at the final whistle, you did feel the better team had won.  Down 0-1, England manager Gareth Southgate tried to reprise his Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer substitution success of the semis and it sort of worked.  Palmer got the equalizer at 73 minutes and there was a sense that maybe England had a chance.  But Spain regrouped pretty quickly and started to work their possession game again.  Oyarzabal got the game winner at 86 minutes; seen here, the whole play was quickly and simply executed.  It was a perfect example of how Spain, while abandoning the tiki taka passing seemingly for passing's sake that had limited their success in recent years, has reworked the tactic so the passing has a purpose. 

Overall, the tournament was entertaining enough, certainly not short on drama.  The big negative I saw was long stretches between moments of quality.  Seems like there was a tendency on the part of managers to play not to lose.  But on balance, still a good watch. 

Southgate Departs

Though he did not sport his 
usual waistgate at Euro 2024,
this is likely how Southgate 
will be remembered

Two straight Euro finals (narrowly losing both) a World Cup semi final (2018) and a World Cup quarterfinal (2022).  Not a bad record - the only European team to reach at least the quarterfinals in those last four tournaments.  Sometimes it's hard not to measure reality against the weight of expectations for this team and the feeling that they could have done more creeps in.  But that's more likely a function of overestimating their talent because we're so familiar with the personnel.

Speculation is wild as to his replacement.  Eddie Howe and Graham Potter come up a lot. I've heard Klopp mentioned again.  Pochettino may be in the mix.  With the World Cup just two years away, they really don't want to wait too long.

Probably means we won't see a waist coat on the sidelines again.

COPA America Concludes

Here are the highlights:

1) Uruguayan team climbed into stands and got into fights with Colombian fans

2) As detailed here, some untold number of fans were able to enter Hard Rock Stadium without tickets for the final.  Apparently there was also some trashing of stadium property.  The match kickoff was delayed by over an hour.

Fans sneaking in through the air vents at Hard Rock Stadium

3) As detailed here, the head of the Colombian football federation and his son were arrested on charges of battery for hitting security officers after the COPA America final.

4) As detailed here, Enzo Fernandez and some of his Argentine teammates were caught on tape singing a racist and homophobic chant directed at French players of African heritage.  The most surprising thing here is that there was misbehavior by the Argentina team and I have seen nothing to indicate that Emi Martinez was involved.

Seriously, WTF?  Seems like various parties are pointing fingers at other parties but there may be enough blame to go around.  We'll be watching closely for sanctions and changes.  Given that the World Cup will be here in two years, and Hard Rock Stadium is one of the venues, this stuff needs to be sorted out.

Oh, Argentina won.

Lightning Strikes Limited to the Pitch

After another abysmal come-from-ahead loss by the Union on Saturday, I was seriously on the fence about heading down to Subaru Park on Wednesday to see them face New England with the forecast calling for gusty thunderstorms.  In the end, the prospect of Blake and Martinez returning some stability to the defense and the potential debut of Cavan Sullivan won out.  Plus, gotta support the team.  Very happy to say the decision was handsomely rewarded.  The Union had the most attacking pressure I'd seen in months.  They reaped the benefits with goals at 29, 39 and 44 to take a 3-0 lead into the lockerroom. New England got one back early in the second half but the U immediately responded to restore the three-goal lead, then added another on a laser by Quinn Sullivan, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the slide over to where his brother was warming up as a sub.

After Quinn's goal, the only thing left was the introduction of Cavan Sullivan.  We could see he'd gotten word he was going in as he was getting high fives from the other subs and had a big grin on this face.  He came in at 85 minutes to a standing O, then got massive cheers everytime he touched the ball.  He made a nice run late that resulted in a decent shot.  

Baribo became the first Israeli player to get a hat trick in MLS;
his name kept coming up as "buddy ball" on the close captioning
Photo: Caean Couto-USA TODAY Sports

How to explain the turnaround? To my eye, Martinez was more the difference than Blake but maybe Elliott and Glesnes were buoyed by Andre's return as well.  Tai Baribo, whose playing time had been rather limited before Carranza's departure, has come to life, as witnessed by his hat trick Wednesday night.  In the glass half empty version, we can't forget they were playing New England.  Falling into "it's the hope that kills you trap," I think this team, with the key players on the pitch, should be able to make the playoffs. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Jeff H (with the Union up 3-0 on the Revolution): Didn't we lose two games 4-3? Just sayin'

Steve: Always with the negative waves, Jeff. Always with the negative waves.

So maybe the Union have figured things out - just in time for the break in MLS action for the stupid Leagues Cup competition.  They have group stage matches against Charlotte and Cruz Azul.  Any Leagues Cup games after that depend on performance.  They don't play an MLS match again until August 24th against Columbus.  [Editor's Note:Except for the 7/20 match against Nashville - who does the proofing on this blog?]  Did I mention I think this is stupid?   Just because I'll be there for the Charlotte match doesn't mean I changed my opinion.

"Bold, Belated Subs"

I got to see all four semi-finals.  All intriguing in their own way.

About Effin' Time

Gareth Southgate has been conservative - nay timid - in his lineup and substitution choices, even as the team has struggled to score, or even look dangerous.  After four straight matches showing nothing, England played their best football of the tournament in the first half against Netherlands.  Still, all they had to show for it was a 1-1 scoreline.  Then they lost the plot in the second half and the Dutch looked more the likely winner.  Still, not much of a response from Southgate.  

A study in contrast seconds after Watkins delivers
the game winner for England

For almost five matches now, Dennis and I have been pointing out that maybe Ollie Watkins could be the one to shake things up for England.  But all we had seen was a 22 minute cameo against Denmark.  Finally, in the 81st minute, Southgate puts him in and what do you know, Watkins scores the game winner in the 90th minute.  An easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  

So good on Southgate for making the substitution.  We get that taking Harry Kane out of a match is a hard thing to do.  But he can be fairly criticized for playing not to lose.  Like this ESPN article notes, the move was bold but belated.  The article also recognizes that pulling the plug on Kane is a tough choice for a manager but then notes that Kane was "flat-footed, tired and too easy to mark."  

Given Southgate's nature, I'm guessing the starting XI will be unchanged for the final, except maybe Luke Shaw for Trippier, who may be hurt.  But, will he be quicker to pull the trigger on a move to shake things up?

Two Improbable Shots

Spain certainly have looked like the best squad at the tournament and their 2-1 win over France was not a big surprise.  However, the xG on their two goals adds up to a whopping .145.  First, they got  this screamer from Lamine Yamal, who at 16 became the youngest scorer in European Championship history.  That one was rated at .023; that is a 2.3% chance, which frankly seems high.  The game winner from Dani Olmo, seen here, was .122; he did make a some nice touches in the box to set the shot.  Initially given as an own goal, the People In Charge of These Things eventually decided that the shot was going to be on target and gave Olmo credit.  

France had the better chances but did not convert.  Hard to feel like they were hard done by the loss.  They managed just one goal from open play over six matches.  

COPA MMA

I kid.  But only slightly.  Canada committed 15 fouls in the 0-2 loss to Argentina.  Uruguay and Colombia combined for 24 fouls, six yellows and two reds in one of the more challenging matches to referee that I can remember.  Colombia played the second half down a man and still pulled out a 1-0 win.  But apparently that didn't end things.  As reported here, Darwin Nunez and a bunch of his Uruguayan teammates climbed into the stands after the final whistle and fought with Colombian fans.  Please tell me we will get more than statements from the various federations saying they condemn violence; hopefully this will be investigated and sanctions applied where appropriate.

RAS (Referees Against Shithousery)

A limited search of the web turned up nothing on this but in the Uruguary - Colombia match, referee Cesar Ramos made the unusual move of restarting the match with a player down.  Colombian Richard Rios had gone down after a play in the Uruguayan corner but play continued.  At the next stoppage, Ramos went to check on Rios, but curiously allowed the match to restart with Rios still lying on the ground.  Announcers Jon Strong and Stuart Holden were mildly amused, thinking it was probably yet another player milking contact, although they also suggested that Ramos probably should have held the restart.

At the first stoppage after that, Ramos called for the stretcher and Rios was taken off across the end line.  He returned to play shortly thereafter but had to leave the match about five minutes after coming back on.  So this was the one in a thousand where the player might actually have been hurt.

I get what Ramos was thinking.  Colombia, up 1-0 and down a man, are going to do everything they can to slow the match down.  The right thing in this case was probably to call for the stretcher at the first stoppage.  But, the more players feign injuries, they more cynicism they'll be getting from referees when a player goes down.  

Wrexham Update (Spoiler Alert)

If you prefer to get your Wrexham information as it comes out in the Hulu TV series, do not read any further.

As the club prepares for the upcoming season in League One, they have been seeking to get an upgrade in the status of their youth academy.  Details are here.  Short version is that currently they are rated Category 4, which means they can only bring in players U-17 and older.  Their request for Category 3 status, which would allow them to have teams as young as U-9, has been denied.  Though they have appealed, the quality of their facilities makes it sound like they will be unsuccessful.  The consequence is that they will continue to lose out on young talent from their region who would be very interested in playing for Wrexham.

I was a bit surprised that I had not encountered this issue in 10+ years of Football Manager.  I've learned about all manner of regulations from the game but had not heard of this aspect.  

Berhalter Sacked

No surprises to hear that Gregg Berhalter was fired as USMNT coach on Wednesday.  Now we get to find out how real this Jurgen Klopp talk was.  Turns out, probably not much.  Maybe it's just too soon.  But if not Klopp, who?  Lots of names floating out there.  Two articles I saw mentioned Jim Curtin (or Jim Curtain as the CBS article spelled it).  Feels like too much noise right now to spend too much time speculating.

So busy day on Sunday.  Spain vs England at 3 pm.  Argentina vs Colombia at 8 pm.

A couple of Union matches too - at Toronto 7:30 Saturday and back home on Wednesday at 7:30 to host New England.

At Least There Was Drama

Though goals and real moments of quality were still in short supply, the Euro Quarterfinals at least delivered some drama.  Three of four matches went to extra time and two went to a penalty shoot out.  

Spain - Germany featured some crunching tackles, including one that knocked Pedri out of the match.  Germany leveled the match in the 89th minute but Spain got the game winner at 119 minutes.  The big flap though was the non-call against Marc Cucurella (see below) in extra time.   Netherlands rallied from an 0-1 deficit to take a 2-1 win after scoring at 70 and 76 minutes.  The game winner was an own goal, giving Ogee 10 for the tournament.  

England - Switzerland did not exactly sizzle but it was a tight contest.  The English have provided about three minutes of quality football so far but there they are in the semis after beating the Swiss on PKs.  One of those quality minutes is Saka's goal from the right side of the box that leveled the match in the 80th minute.  The quality and context make this week's YouTubeableMoment.  After a scoreless (and drab?) extra 30 minutes, England were clinical in the shootout, with five well-taken penalties.

Then we have France, who do not have a goal from the run of play by anyone on their roster (a PK and two own goals).  This time they dueled Portugal to a 0-0 draw over 120 minutes.  Les Bleus were also a perfect 5 of 5 in the shootout and they advanced to the semis.  Portugal were shut out for the third straight match; without factoring in injury time, they went the last 364 minutes of the tournament without scoring.  Probably a good thing that France and England don't face each other in the semis.

Handling Again

Where is he supposed to put his arm?

So German fans are up in arms (pun intended) because Anthony Taylor declined to call Marc Cucurella for handling in extra time of the 1-2 loss to Spain. Surprisingly I couldn't find good video of the play but here are some visuals to help.  Real time I did not think it was a handball.  Neither did Anthony Taylor or his VAR Stuart Atwell.  Neither did Mark Clattenburg who provided his opinion on the Fox telecast.  Further, pre-tournament advice given to the referees specifically referenced this type of play:

In his pre-tournament briefing, Roberto Rosetti, UEFA's head of referees, gave specific examples of handball penalties -- for and against. Rosetti showed a clip of the ball hitting a defender's arm from a shot on goal. The arm was in a vertical position, close to the body.

Rosetti said: "Not every touch of arm, hand is a penalty. We want to consider the movement of the players. Biomechanical movements. You know, this is a clear situation. This is never a penalty."

Yes, his arm is not glued to his side.  But he had been shuffling laterally to get to that spot.  Plus he was moving his arm back, away from the shot.  And, you have the proximity issue.  My last point on this is that Alexi Lalas asked how was that not a handball?  I rest my case.

Not A Coin Flip But Easier Than A Free Throw

Speaking of Lalas, in the interlude between extra time and penalty kicks, he never fails to remind us that this is not a coin flip and penalty kicks are a skill that players prepare for.  He has a point but I wonder what he would say if the NBA played five extra minutes of overtime, then went to free throws to decide the game.  Well, there is the defensive part of it.  True, but the NBA average for free throw shooting last season was 78.4% while the EPL converted PKs at a 89.6% rate.  That was a really high number so I looked at the four year average, which was 81.9%,

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Why is the Swiss coach leaving Xhaka in for the penalty shootout?

Steve: Because no one would dare take a PK for Granit

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Michael B: Who's got more support - England or Switzerland?

Steve: Well, you know the neutrals will be for Switzerland

Signs of Life at Subaru Park

Though not much.  There were about 20 minutes in each half where the Union found some ideas on offense and generated decent chances.  These were matched with periods in which the defense played like this was their first match together.  The excuses about injuries and personnel shortages fall flat when the problem is the back line of Wagner, Lowe, Elliott, Glesnes and Harriel, which has been together for several years now.  It's like they're not sure who's supposed to do what so we end up with uncovered runs and dangerous scoring chances.

At least they salvaged a point in the 0-0 with the Red Bulls but with the defensive breakdowns, they could have easily lost this one 2-0.  NY had the better xG at 2.8 - 2.5 but it felt much more lopsided in favor of the visitors; they had some wide open chances that they failed to put on frame and Union keeper Rick came up with some critical saves.  They remain in 14th place, though a playoff spot is only three points away.  Very interested in what happens in the upcoming transfer window.

An Exercise In Shithousery

When BFS Goalkeeping Expert Graham R picked me up for the Union match, he did point out that we could avoid the 90+ degree heat and high humidity at Subaru Park and watch some Copa American action.  Tempting but you gotta support the team.  I was interested enough in Brazil - Uruguay to dvr it for Sunday morning.  Should have known better.  Between the 41 fouls (26 for Uruguary), four yellows and one red, if there was any actual football, I missed it.  What a joke that was.  Uruguay won the penalty shoot out after a 0-0 draw and will take on Colombia in the semis.  Argentina and Canada, who also both advanced on penalties, is the other semi.

Football Widow

BFS Artistic Director Laura O has noted that between the Euros and Copa America, it has been hard to get my attention.  She sends this video along to show exactly how tough it has been.

So we have Spain - France at 3 pm Tuesday and England - Netherlands at 3 pm Wednesday.  After the last experience I have my doubts about Copa America but they have Argentina - Canada at 8 pm Tuesday and Uruguay - Colombia at 8 pm on Wednesday.  

EPL kicks off in a little more than five weeks.

Eesh

Mediocrity finally cost a few teams their chance to win the Euros, though some (many?) continue on despite pedestrian performances.  Mediocrity would be a big step up for the USMNT and the Union.

Quality Dispensed With An Eye Dropper

The Round of 16 did not, in the main, bring out the best in most of the teams.  Three sides - France, England and Portugal - were less than impressive in advancing.  England putzed around against Slovakia until five minutes into stoppage time and only Bellingham's bicycle kick (this week's YouTubeableMoment) got them to extra time.  Another brief moment of quality early in extra time (Toney to Kane) was enough for England to advance.  Southgate appears reluctant to tinker too much with the line up but how long can they keep playing like this?

Thanks to our AirBnB hostess allowing for a late check-out time and the 1 pm flight out of Eugene for BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W, I did get to see Belgium - France.  I say that like it's a good thing but given the quality of the match, maybe not.  Neither side showed very much.  Verthonghen's own goal in the 85th minute is the reason France move on. Hard to feel sorry for Belgium as they showed nothing in this tournament.

Portugal?  They went 0-0 with Slovenia for 120 minutes and advanced on PKs.  Ronaldo could have won it extra time but Obiak saved his PK.

Not Natural Enough; Andersen called for handling

Even Germany's win wasn't all that impressive. Joachim Andersen scored for Denmark in the 50th minute but the goal was ruled out by VAR, correctly, for offside.  Minutes later Andersen got called for handling in the box, again with VAR's assistance, and Havertz dispatched the PK.  Initially I thought the call was harsh but upon further review, think that Michael Oliver got it right.  The key for me is which arm is extended.  If you are running and your right leg is leading, it's natural for your left arm to be outstretched.  On the other hand, if you are merely turning your body, then having the right arm up and extended is making yourself bigger. There's more on the call below.  Germany did add another so probably not fair to denigrate their win too much.

Was Switzerland's 2-0 win over Italy the result of Italian indifference or Swiss brilliance?  Sometimes it's both.

Advancing on Merit?

A few others did win decisively.  Netherlands finally found their game and pasted Romania 3-0.  Spain scored five goals in their 4-1 win over Georgia.  After surrendering an early own goal, they had little trouble dispatching the surprise entrant in the knockout phase.  And Austria-Turkiye was a treat as both sides put up better efforts than several of the other countries that are advancing.  Turkiye came away with a hard fought 2-1 win.

Smart Balls

Just make sure the batteries are charged

Michael Oliver had two decisions to make in the handling case discussed above.  One of them, whether Andersen actually touched the ball, was made easier by the new technology incorporated into Fussballliebe, the Official Match Ball for UEFA EURO 2024.  As detailed here, the technology detects every touch of the ball.  In the picture above, you can see the graph that tells Oliver that Andersen had touched the ball.

Ojee A Lock to Win the Golden Boot

With nine own goals so far, no player is going to match that tally.  He may also lead France in scoring too.  They have a lone goal from Mbappe to go with the Wober own goal from Austria and Vertonghen's misfortune from Belgium.

Another Bite At the Cherry for Another Bite At the Cherry

We have always been confused by the British version of this metaphor.  How do you not finish the cherry in one bite?  Why is there a need for a second bite?  BFS Statistical Advisor Brenna C offers a possible explanation.  What if you missed completely in your first attempt?  Okay, that makes a little more sense.  Except how did you miss the whole thing in the first place?  I guess you might have dropped it or tried to toss it in your mouth and missed.  

Does Berhalter Survive?

With a 1-0 loss to Uruguay, the USMNT uncermoniously bowed out of Copa America.  Actually, even a draw wouldn't have been enough as Jamaica beat Bolivia. I saw very little of the action so I can't comment on how they played.  But clearly, not advancing out of group that included Uruguary, Jamaica (um, you mean Panama but the point is still the same) and Bolivia has to be viewed as a failure.  Is it the quality of players, the mix of players, the tactics?  I don't know.  Unfortunately, for national teams, there are no transfer windows to bolster or revamp the roster; you work with the players you have.  

Did Klopp really say he was all ears about the USMNT position?

Naturally, this means the focus turns to the manager and there are calls for Greg Berhalter to be sacked. Incredibly, as explained here, Jurgen Klopp might actually be a candidate for the job. That seems so farfetched but earlier this year Klopp did say the USMNT position is one that he would consider.

As for the rest of the tournament, quarterfinals are this weekend. Argentina got past Ecuador but only on PKs.  Maybe check out Uruguay - Brazil Saturday at 9 pm on FS1.  Semis are 7/9-10 and the final is Sunday 7/14.  Haven't had the bandwidth to follow Copa America too much given the Euros and the Olympic Trials but maybe have a chance now.

Maybe Apple Has Done Me A Favor

MLS Season Pass has meant that I have not watched the recent Union debacles live and only have to skim through the lowlights.  Wednesday's performance set a new low, as they coughed up a 3-1 lead.  And by "cough up" I don't mean they got a draw.  Nope, they surrendered three goals in 10 minutes, inclouding the game loser at 90+1 minutes, and got nothing from the match.  This is the first time in franchise history they have lost five straight and they now sit 14th in the table.

I haven't seen enough of these matches to have a sense of what's wrong.  Injuries and national team call-ups haven't helped, especially with respect to the bench and in-game changes.  You would think hope that the Union will be active when the MLS Secondary Transfer Window opens on 7/18 and runs to 8/14.  

Tantalizing Matchups - On Paper Anyway

Here's the line up for the Euro quarterfinals:

Spain vs Germany - Friday at noon
Portugal vs France - Friday at 3 pm
England vs Switzerland - Saturday at noon
Netherlands vs Turkiye - Saturday at 3 pm

All are on Fox.  They all look like great contests and maybe we'll see more quality as we get closer to the final.

The Union host the Harrison Pink Cows on Saturday at 7:30.  No tickets and MLS Season Pass mean I won't be able to see this one live.  Maybe this is a good thing?

On To The Knockout Phase

Multitasking between track & field, the Euros, Copa America, golfing, taking in the Oregon coast and a little bit of work.  Yeah, it's a tough job but someone has to do it.  I did eventually get to see four of the final group stage matches.  

No Premium For Mediocrity

With the expanded format, teams were generally not punished for mediocrity in the Group Stage.  Looking at you Netherlands as the prime example.  They needed a late goal from Wout to edge Poland 2-1, drew 0-0 with France and then surrendered a late goal to lose to Austria 2-3.  But, 3rd in their group with four points was enough to get them to the knockout rounds.  France didn't turn anyone's head with a 1-0 win over Austria, then draws with Netherlands and Poland but they moved on.  

England sleepwalked their way to the knockout rounds with an uninspiring win over Serbia, then draws with Denmark and Slovenia.  Speaking of those two, they both failed to win a group stage match but advanced with three draws.  Belgium looked toothless and likely lead the tournament in goals ruled out by VAR but also made it.

Modric as the Man of Sorrows
Sent along by BFS Art Director Laura O.

Two exceptions to that story line are Croatia and Scotland.  Perennial contenders Croatia put themselves in a hole with an opening 0-3 loss to Spain and made it even deeper when they dropped two points surrendering a late equalizing goal with Albania.  Somewhat incrediby, they were still in position to advance, carrying a 1-0 lead over Italy into stoppage time.  A 90+8 minute goal off a corner gave Italy a 1-1 draw and sent the Croatians packing.  The sad note there is that might have been the major international appearance for Luka Modric.  His goal in the 55th minute, this week's YouTubeableMoment, scored shortly after missing a PK, had given Croatia the lead.

As for Scotland, the opening day loss to Germany was only surprising in its magnitude (5-1).  The 1-1 draw with Switzerland had seemingly set them up for advancement with only Hungary to go.  Alas, they could not muster a goal in that contest and eventually lost 0-1.  Clearly a disappointing effort.

On the positive side, Georgia's 2-0 upset of Portugal was fun to watch, especially since neither Dennis or I are big fans of the Portuguese side.  With the74th ranked team knocking off the 6th rated side, this was the biggest upset in European Championship history.  

Germany and Spain were the only sides that looked close to pre-tournament expectations.  Not that it necessarily means anything for the knockout phase but at least they were businesslike in getting through the group stage.

Can You Get a Red Card In A Debate?

Fortunately, I missed the two ugliest contests of the week - the Presidential debate and Czechia vs Turkiye.  The latter featured 25 fouls, 16 yellow cards and two red cards.  Had those sanctions been available for the debate, we probably would have seen a number of them applied there as well.

Poised For Disappointment

After a solid opener against Bolivia, the USMNT faltered against Panama.  Down a man after Weah got sent off at 18 minutes, they did take the lead but that only lasted for four minutes.  Panama got the game winner in the 88th minute.  Though they sit in 2nd right now, level on points with Panama and a better goal differential, the outlook is not great.  Panama get a weak Bolivian side for their last group stage match while the US must face Uruguay.  Those matches are Monday evening.

You Cannot Lose If You Do Not Play (apologies to Steve Forbert)

Speaking of disappointment, the Union did not do so this week but they also didn't play. They face Montreal on Saturday night on the road. 

Viewing Challenges

As we head to the final two days of the Olympic Trials plus a travel day on Monday, keeping tabs on everything is going to be difficult.  The Euro Championship bracket can be seen here.  Will probably get to see Saturday and Sunday matches either live (they are at 9 and 12 out here) or on DVR.

Busy time to be away.

Scenarios

Quickly adapted to west coast time here in Eugene.  I think it suits my internal clock.

Some of the early heats at the Olympic Trials are "interesting" in that they often have 7-8 athletes and the first six advance to the next round.  Yes, preliminary races that eliminate one or two athletes.  I raise that because the Euro Champs have a similar feel.  With the expanded format there are 24 teams in the group stage and 16 advance to the knockout rounds.  The first two in each group make it plus four out of the six third place sides.  So, 36 matches to eliminate eight teams.

Those four third place spots make the scenario analysis incredibly byzantine.  ESPN offers a comprehensive summary, including all the tiebreaking procedures, here.  We will not offer a thorough review but rather will simply suggest which of the Matchday 3 contests look the most interesting to us, remembering that the final group stage matches within each group are played concurrently.

Group A - Scotland vs Hungary

Either must win to have a chance to advance and even that might not be enough for Hungary.  Germany are already in.

Group B - Croatia vs Italy

Croatia must win to have a chance to advance.  Spain are already in.

Group C - Denmark vs Serbia

Denmark are in with a win but even have a slight chance with a draw, if Slovenia lose to England.

Group D - Netherlands vs Austria

The caped crusader for France
(AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Either are in for sure with a win and both likely advance with a draw.  That could lead to a boring match but since Poland are out, their match with France doesn't look all that appealing unless you want to see if Mbappe plays with his tricolor mask to protect the broken nose he suffered in the first game.  He did not appear in their second match and you wonder if they would risk him if advancement looks solid.

Group E - Belgium vs Ukraine on TV while watching Romania vs Slovakia on your computer

All four teams have three points with Romania and Belgium tied with a goal differential of +1, Slovakia in 3rd with 0 and Ukraine at -1.  It is possible both could be blowouts by the higher ranked Belgium and Romania but this group has seen much chaos so hard to say.  We will likely go with Belgium-Ukraine, mostly to see if Lukaku has any more goals ruled out.

Group F - Czechia vs Turkiye

Czechia have to win to advance whereas a draw is probably enough for Turkiye.  Portugal are in.

Offside Again

We've missed enough matches but it seems like the most controversial play so far was the Netherlands potential game winner being ruled out for offside.  You can see the play here.  No doubt Dumfries is in an offside position.  Does he prevent keeper Maignan from making a play on the goal?  Maybe.  Did Maignan have a prayer of getting to the ball? No.  But the Offside Law only references preventing an opponent from playing the ball, not whether he could actually get to it.  Since the on-field call was offside, this really shouldn't have taken long to resolve.  What would have been really interesting is what would have happened if the call on the field had been a good goal.

Ogee Leading Goal Scorer (or How Do You Say F*** in Turkish?)

With six already, Ogee is in the lead for the Golden Boot.  The most egregious of the own goals so far can be seen here.  The Turkish defender sends the ball back to where he thought his keeper was positioned only to realize he wasn't there.  Probably didn't affect the result but it was a howler.

I Don't Know Who U Are Anymore

Two more losses for the Union, which I guess gratefully I did not see.  In Wednesday's 4-3 loss at Cincinnati they got the equalizer at 90+1 minutes only to surrender the game loser at 90+10.  On Saturday at home to Charlotte, they fell 0-2.  Lots of shots on goal although at 1.0, xG suggests maybe they weren't all that dangerous.  The results drop the Union to 11th place, which would not be good enough to make the playoffs, even though the format generously allows nine teams to make it.  Yeah, kind of like preliminary heats where six of the seven finishers advance.

Hopefully set up here to see the third matchday group stage contests, either live or by DVR.

Through Matchday One

Random observations through Match Day 1 of European Championship Group stage:

Good to see Syzygy Szczesny still playing for Poland

Watch the kids who come out with the players for the national anthems.  They are singing with more gusto than the players

In case you didn't see it, check out Christian Eriksen's goal here.  When you think about where he was three years ago, this is amazing.  I wiped away a tear watching it.

This is not your father's Belgian side.  They fell 0-1 to Slovakia in the biggest upset ever in European Championship history.  Hard luck Lukaku had two goals wiped out, correctly, by VAR.  

England and France were underwhelming enough in their 1-0 wins but they got their three points.

More Hardware for Sportif Allentown

Champions again; Dennis is sixth from right in back row

Dennis's over 30 team won their league again.  Dennis appears twice on the stat sheet, once for a goal and once for a yellow card.  You can see the goal here (it should start at about 1:46).  See the throw-in, then the pass back, then a ball into corner, a bouncing cross and that's Dennis outleaping the keeper for the header goal.  Just like I taught him.

Still Messy Without Lionel

Checked in occasionally on my phone to see how the match was progressing.  Great that they finally scored an even strength goal when at 3 minutes, Glesnes sprung Uhre with a great pass and Mikael made a great run and finish.  The lead made it through the half but not far into the second half.  Miami had a player sent off at 69 minutes so I was thinking we'll at least get a draw.  Not.  They gave up a goal in stoppage time for a 1-2 loss.  Only when I watched the highlights did I realize how bad this was.  Miami had another player sent off in the 88th minute so the game loser came with the Union up two men.  

Oh, and Carranza is leaving for Feyenoord in the summer and Wagner was the lastest player to call out management for lack of investing in the team.  Otherwise, things are going great.

Big match for Scotland today versus Switzerland at 3 pm.  Thursday has Denmark-England at 12 and Spain -Italy at 3.  Tough day to be traveling. Friday, another travel day, has France - Netherlands at 3 pm.  Belgium are pretty close to a must win situation against Romania on Saturday at 3.  Olympic Trials start Friday so not sure how much I'll get to see.