Whither the Underdogs

Tuesday and Wednesday saw the eight replays of the third round FA Cup draws.  As we noted last week, all the draws involved teams from different divisions.  But first a correction.  Both Wigan (vs Bournemouth) and Mansfield (vs Cardiff) achieved their draws on the road, not at home as I wrote last week.  BFS budget does not include funds for fact checking.

So how did the 'dogs - the sides from the lower divisions - do in the replays? Uh, not so great.  Only Wigan were able to advance, beating Bournemouth (who might have still been hungover from their upset of Arsenal on Sunday) 3-0.  Two others got draws in regulation but Shrewsbury went down in extra time to West Ham and Norwich lost on PKs kicks from the spot to Chelsea.  And the road also ended for Fleetwood, Carlisle, Stevenage, Wolverton and Mansfield.  The Chelsea match featured three BFS's against Chelsea - Pedro, Willian and Morata.  VAR was available in that match and all three calls were upheld.  Frankly I think Morata's could have been a PK but he must not understand physics.  To me it looks like the defender put a hand on his shoulder to hold him back; but instead of jerking back, Morata fell forward, which clearly hurt the argument that he was held.  And in pleading his case, he got a second yellow for dissent.

Referee Martin Atkinson signalled for the use of VAR
 by putting his finger to his ear

VAR was also in use at the Leicester - Fleetwood contest.  The Foxes had a second goal ruled out for offside but "upon further review" the ruling on the field was reversed.  Justice was served in that case as the evidence looked pretty convincing that he was indeed onside.  I didn't find the process too disruptive and was glad to see a case when it added instead of took away a goal.  The downside?  I already hate when players raise their hands to call offside or flash an imaginary yellow card when they feel they've been the victim of a rash challenge.  Now they are making the TV box signal with their hands when they think the VAR should be consulted.  Dudes, that's not even the official signal in FA games at this point - right now the referee puts a finger to his ear (see picture).  That may change because they do that often in the course of a game already so they probably need a more distinctive signal.

Norwich's James Maddison, not named after 4th President of US

Who's Teaching American History in England?

If the English are trying to honor American presidents they are doing a lousy job.  The Chelsea-Norwich match featured a Kenedy and a James Maddison.  Probably just sour grapes about that American Revolution thing.



0-0 Draw Trifecta

Chelsea had an interesting 8 days, completing 0-0 draws in the FA Cup (vs Norwich), the League Cup (vs Arsenal) and regular league play (vs Leicester).  They finally broke that drought when Batshuayi scored in the 55th minute in the replay against Norwich.  There's also plenty of news that Conte is discontent with the situation at Chelsea but there's also a growing sense that it may be mutual.  Wow, not even 12 months after the Blues won the league.


But At Least You're Not Newcastle

Speaking of trifectas, the news Tyneside was bad on three fronts.  First, they could only manage a draw versus Swansea at St. James' Park.  The Magpies did miss some good chances in the 1-1 draw but also should have been penalized for handling in the box and cleared a Swansea shot off the line in stoppage time.  In other words, a reasonably fair result.  Second, it's already the 18th and confusion reigns as to whether Benitez will be able to add to the squad during the January transfer window.   Failure to strengthen the squad would be an incredibly risky gamble that they can avoid relegation with the current roster.

Lastly came the news that owner Mike Ashley has ended talks with Amanda Staveley, saying the attempts to put together a deal have been "exhausting, frustrating and a complete waste of time."  There are a variety of takes on this whole thing.  This one, though not pro-Ashley per se, does say that Staveley could have gotten the deal done if she'd been willing to move on the price.  Really?  Why should she move on the price when Newcastle may not even be a Premier League side by May.  Here's the view from a Newcastle paper, perhaps a little more charitable towards Staveley.  If Newcastle United were a house, you could easily blame the owner for poor upkeep which has resulted in two relegations, dodging a demotion on the last day another time and coming close several other times.  Yes the franchise has enormous potential but the house inspection suggests it's going to take a lot of money to fulfill that potential and this has to be reflected in the purchase price.


Dwight, I Am Your Father (musical accompaniment courtesy the Beach Boys)

Dwight Gayle

Blondie Chaplin

Watching a Brian Wilson tribute I was struck by how much Blondie Chaplin, South African singer and guitarist who played with the Beach Boys and the Rolling Stones, looked like he could be Dwight Gayle's father.  Blondie had his own band called the Flames and was a key part of the Beach Boys when they were shorthanded for a while.  He ended up being the lead singer on the hit "Sail On Sailor."

Not Unbeaten Anymore

Liverpool handed Man City their first loss of the year in a 4-3 goal fest.  A close contest was looking like a blowout  when Liverpool scored three goals between 59 and 68 minutes.  But late goals from the Citizens kept the verdict a little in doubt until the final whistle.  Even with the loss, Man City still have a 12 point lead on Man United and 538 still lists them as 99% likely to win the Premier League.  Chelsea dropped a couple of points in the aforementioned draw to Leicester while Man United capably handled Stoke and Tottenham dismantled Everton.

Life continues to be difficult for Arsenal.  Up 1-0 at Bournemouth they yielded two in five minutes and lost 1-2 to the Cherries.  With their competitors for 2nd through 4th getting points, the Gunners are now five points out of 5th and eight points behind 4th place Chelsea.  What's worse is the Sanchez situation seems to be affecting the team and Ozil is still hurt (and there are questions about whether he's gone after this season).  They need to get their stuff together or they're going to miss Champions League again.

The bottom part of the table is so crowded, a win get bump you up three or four places.  Newcastle saw West Ham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth slip past them this weekend; the draw with Swansea combined with Brighton's loss got one place back, on goal differential.  We may have to add Watford and possibly Everton to the list of relegation candidates.  Settle in for a bumpy ride.


January Moves

Actual deals have been completed but the rumors are even more fun.  Liverpool strengthened their back line with the Virgil van Dijk but lost Coutinho to Barcelona.    Everton added Theo Walcott but lost Barkley to Chelsea.  Alexis Sanchez may be headed to Man United - or maybe Man City.  Andy Carroll may be moving from West Ham to Chelsea.  Arsenal might replace Sanchez with Mkhitaryan or Martial or maybe even Aubameyang from Dortmund.

Newcastle?  Just watching.


Packing 'em In

Games on the weekend plus Tuesday/Wednesday matches next week.  Newcastle have the honor of playing Man City first after their loss to Liverpool.  At the Etihad.  That should go very well.  Wednesday they are home to Burnley; the Clarets have taken just three points from their last six matches but it's hard to feel optimistic about that fixture.  Burnley have yielded the 4th fewest goals while Newcastle have scored 6th fewest.

The weekend fixtures aren't blowing me away but I will be taking in the London derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace (Saturday 10 am CNBC) at a fundraiser for Starfinder.  The Eagles have a second derby on Tuesday as they face West Ham (2:45 NBC Gold).   Wednesday features a good battle between Champions League contenders Tottenham and Man United (3 pm NBCSN). 

And just 147 days until the World Cup.

As I re-read the calendar, I see those mid-week matches are next week, not this coming week.  Never mind...

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Lose

We are certain that when Rosie Perez said this to Woody Harrelson in White Men Can't Jump, she did not have the FA Cup in mind, but her philosophical take is spot on.  Look at the plight of Fleetwood, Wigan, Shrewsbury, Norwich, Carlisle, Stevenage, Wolverton and Mansfield.  All had home FA Cup matches with clubs from higher divisions.  All managed draws.  Their "reward?"  A replay at the home pitch of the higher division club.  Except for maybe the financial aspect, this feels more like a loss than a draw to me.  So you caught the favorite off guard - maybe they underestimated you, maybe they left many first-teamers out of the line up, whatever - and you held them to a draw.  Think they'll make that mistake again?  Imagine if the Battle of Trenton ended in a tie.  In the rematch, the Hessians will probably have a little more respect for Washington's army and maybe won't drink so much the night before.

I'd rather see them go right to extra time as opposed to a replay.  That's what happens if the replay ends in a draw anyway so it's not like they're going to keep replaying the match until some one wins in regulation (side note: they used to do that but got tired of the scheduling hassles).  At least if they go to extra time in the first game, the favored side doesn't get to make adjustments, like fielding a stronger lineup.  And how weird is it that there were eight draws in this round and every one involved teams from different divisions and all were at the home park of the lower division side?

Final stats for the round (W-D-L):

Premier 10-5-5
Championship 7-5-12
League One 3-3-4 (not 4-3-3 as originally published, geez, check your math)
League Two 4-3-3

Among the notable upsets were League Two Coventry over Stoke City (which got Mark Hughes sacked) and League Two Newport over Leeds.  Three League One sides (Fleetwood, Wigan and Shrewsbury) got draws against Premier League teams (Leicester, Bournemouth and West Ham respectively).

The biggest upset may have been Nottingham Forest 4-2 over Arsenal.  That was entertaining stuff, though not so much if you're a Gunners fan.  With Wenger in the stands serving a three-game touchline ban for criticizing referees, Arsenal went down 0-1 on a goal from US national Eric Lichaj (pronounced "smith Lee-high").  Per Mertesacker leveled things quickly but then another highlight reel goal from Lichaj (easily this week's YouTubeableMoment) put Forest back up; check out Lichaj's stumbling celebration effort - clearly a full back not used to doing this.  A PK made it 3-1 but Welbeck got one back at 79 minutes to set up a barnburner of a finish.  Except that Arsenal committed another foul in the box and the PK was safely deposited into the net for a 4-2 lead.  Or was it?  Replays hint that Kieran Dowell (which I kept reading as Do Well) may have had a double touch on the ball.  Would have been interesting if this had happened in the Brighton - Crystal Palace match as the FA employed VAR for that one.  Not 100% clear to me in replays that it was a double strike (though the ball flight suggests it had to be) so maybe VAR wouldn't have changed things. In any case, Arsenal went out 2-4.  Good for Arsene Wenger to be upset with his players rather than the referees after the loss.  And for his brace, Eric Lichaj's wife let him get a puppy, which he promptly named "Gunner."  I am not making this up.

Perez scored the opener from close range

Other results of note for regular readers?  Newcastle fairly easily handled Luton Town with Perez getting two goals and Tottenham seemed untroubled by AFC Wimbledon.  Man United had to work but took care of business 2-0 at home to Derby.   Liverpool took another Merseyside derby win from Everton 2-1 while Chelsea was one of Premier League sides to stumble, drawing 0-0 with Norwich.  Man City started slowly but eventually romped over Burnley 4-1.  Just a week after I was ready to crown Pep Guardiola with some kind of "good guy" award, he got into it a bit with Sean Dyche after the Burnley manager chided the referee for a confusing restart that led to a goal.  Guardiola apologized and Dyche didn't seem to think it was a big deal.  Still, this might weigh in the judges's minds come awards time.


The Black Knight Award (with apologies to Monty Python)

Mat Sadler and Josh Cullen needed treatment
 for nasty injuries during the game

Cullen needs uniform change

The Shrewsbury-West Ham match was particularly fiesty.  After a clash of heads in the first half Shrewsbury's Mat Sadler had to go off to get the bleeding stopped.  He had to go off again in the second half when the cut started to bleed again; he returned with a proper bandage this time.  The Hammers Josh Cullen took a boot to the face and lost a tooth; we were treated to medical person searching for and finding the lost item on the pitch (video here).  Cullen was off the pitch only briefly, by which we mean he was seen in his briefs.  Though we liked Sadler's Spirit of 1776 head wrap, we're going with Cullen for the Black Knight "Tis But A Scratch" Award.


Chester Advance

Wary after watching the Leicester, Chelsea and West Ham draws, I adjusted the lineup for Chester's FA Cup tie with Championship Division Bradford.  I still left many second teamers in the starting lineup but made some changes to the bench, putting back a few key players who I had planned to rest.  With the score 0-0 at 60 minutes, I'd seen enough.   Substitutions were made, goals were scored.  We went on to win 2-0.  Bullet dodged.

Not so smart in the first leg of the League Cup semi with Chelsea.  Somehow we let a 3-0 lead slip away and finished with a 3-3 draw, putting us at a big disadvantage for the second leg at Stamford Bridge.  Sounds like some really bad managing there, though we were somewhat lucky to be up at all given how badly we were tackling and taking fouls and getting yellow cards.  I told the players to be more cautious, stay on their feet, etc but we kept hacking and it eventually cost us.

What's up with Martin Skrtel?  He's supposed to be our number three center back but several times, including the match with Bradford, I've had to take him out because he was playing like sh struggling; not what I paid $8 million for.  Getting offers for several players in the January window.  Many of the bids are too far below their real value but a few are going to tempt me.  Like $42 million for my star striker.  Sure that's are huge profits over what I paid but does that really matter when it will cost as much to replace him? 


League Play Returns

Good news for us late risers - no 7:30 Saturday morning match this week. But there are six at 10 and only one on TV - that being Chelsea hosting Leicester.  Incredibly critical three points up for grab at St. James' Park with Newcastle hosting Swansea; this is a big chance to put a little distance between the Magpies and the relegation zone.

Best match of the weekend is probably Liverpool - Man City on Sunday at 11 (NBCSN).  Even if you've conceded the title to the Citizens, Liverpool are in a battle for a top four spot and need all available points.  Man United have what looks to be an easy fixture at home to Stoke; Magpie fans would be happy if they take care of business there.

You'll have to go to NBC Gold but Crystal Palace - Burnley at 10 am Saturday could be worth checking out.  Also, Tottenham taking on Everton at Wembley on Saturday at 12:30 (NBC) might be interesting.  Will be watching to see how Arsenal respond after FA Cup upset when they take on Bournemouth Sunday at 8:30 (NBCSN).

I used to spend this weekend watching the NFL division playoffs.  I'll still be watching a lot of football, just a different kind.

What Was In Your Stocking?

Fifty matches later...

Not that I saw them all but it was pretty busy between 12/16 and 1/4.  And not every match was a classic but there were plenty of good ones.  Also not a lot of top tier match ups which means we basically saw the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the mediocre get mediocrer.  You probably remember the rating system but it's here if you need a refresher.

No five Santa teams this year.  Maybe getting harsh in my old age or maybe it's because the period was expanded to cover five matches.  Going undefeated was just not enough to justify this rating. 

Easy to put Liverpool (13 points) and Man City (13).  Man City must have an in with whoever sets up the fixtures.  Besides Tottenham, the rest of their schedule included Bournemouth, Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Watford.  Maybe a little lucky to leave Selhurst Park with a draw so we can't give them five Santas.  A perfect score for Liverpool would have required a win over Arsenal but they grabbed all the other points on offer.  Not a real high degree of difficulty with easy wins over Bournemouth and Swansea and more difficult victories over Leicester and Burnley.  

Going to add Crystal Palace (8) and West Ham (8) in here.  Palace took eight points with wins over Leicester and Southampton and draws with Swansea and Man City.  The come from behind win at Southampton was solid work.  Though the Eagles are still clearly in a relegation fight, their position has dramatically improved.  West Ham's only loss came to Newcastle.  The draw with Spurs kind of made up for that plus they got wins over Stoke and West Brom.

A little more crowded here - Chelsea (11), Tottenham (10), Arsenal (9), Man United (9), Newcastle (7), West Ham (7), Brighton (6), Huddersfield (6), and Bournemouth (5). Arguably, given expectations, we should put Swansea (4) here as well. Maybe a bit harsh on Chelsea but draws with both Everton and Arsenal put it in the more disappointing range.  Even more so for both Arsenal and Man United.  The Gunners had not unacceptable draws with Chelsea and Liverpool but 1-1 to West Brom?  More on that below.  Man United's draws were even worse - to Leicester, Burnley and Southampton. Tottenham started with a thrashing at the hands of Man City, took three straight, but finished with a stumble draw home to West Ham; 10 points was okay but it should have been 12. 

Rob Elliot stops Ayew's spot kick; one of the bigger
Newcastle moments this season (photo from the Chronicle)

Newcastle's rating might seem harsh but the draw to Brighton means they didn't get everything they wanted despite wins over West Ham and Stoke.  The fact that the losses to Man City and Arsenal were both 0-1 and relatively close matches doesn't move this to a four Santa rating - they were still losses.  Frankly the win over West Ham was on the lucky side.  Maybe a defining moment for the season at 2-1 when Rob Elliot stopped a PK that should never have been given as the foul occurred outside the box.  Shortly thereafter they added a third goal and hung on for 3-2 win.  By no means is this club out of the woods but at least they moved closer to the clearing.      

This group includes Everton (5), Leicester (4), and Stoke City (4).  The Toffees had a good draw vs Chelsea but also lost to Bournemouth and only managed a draw against West Brom.  Leicester's draw with Man United doesn't make up for losses to Crystal Palace and Watford.  I could justify moving Stoke down to one Santa given 0-3 loss to West Ham and 0-1 result at home versus Newcastle.  

Not a good holiday for Watford (3), Burnley (3), Southampton (2), and West Brom (2).  We'll discuss Burnley more below but the draw with Man United is paired with more disappointing draws to Brighton and Huddersfield.  Watford's fixtures would have justified higher expectations but losses to Huddersfield and Swansea put a damper on those ideas.  

A Tale of Two Non-Handballs

It was the best of calls.  It was the worst of calls.  Southampton's Maya Yoshida and Arsenal's Calum Chambers both had the ball hit their hands in the box late in matches against Man United and West Brom respectively.  Yoshida was not penalized but Chambers was.  For me, neither was a penalty.  I think I know what Mike Dean believes he saw - an extended chicken wing from Chambers -  but the replay shows the arm was actually fairly close to the chest.  Gave both Mourinho and Wenger the chance to whine.  How 'bout getting your sides to play better against Southampton and West Brom?


A Tale of Two 0-0 Draws

It was the best of draws. It was the worst of draws.   Newcastle and Brighton played what might have been the worst game of the year.  Absolutely nothing happened.  Not even worthy of Championship Division.  The next day, Crystal Palace and Man City offered a 0-0 draw where just about everything (except a goal) happened.  Not all of it was good (Puncheon tackle on deBruyne not a red card?) but it was all riveting, right down to Miljvidscsic Milijsivic Miley Cyrus Luka's missed PK in stoppage time. 


Stoppage Time Late Game Madness

Originally I was going to limit this to just stoppage time but there were several more that occurred after the 85th minute.  I count nine of  50 matches being affected by a late goal.  Swansea got two in the 86th and 90th minute to steal all the points from Watford.  Man United lost one (Maguire late goal to snatch a draw for Leicester) and won one (Lingard in stoppage time to rescue a point against Burnley).  Burnley dropped four points late, adding a loss to Liverpool (Klavan goal at 94 minutes) to the Man United draw.  West Ham had a wild match in which goals at 81 and 89 minutes had given them a 3-2 lead over Bournemouth only to see Callum Wilson, who a) may have been offside and b) may have handled the ball, net one at 93 minutes; the Guardian would refer to this contest as "bereft of defensive dignity."  In the Hammers next match, Andy Carroll grabbed two points back with a 94th minute header.  And at the Emirates, Hector Bellerin leveled things with Chelsea at 2-2 in the 92nd minute.  But before the final whistle, Morata would be stopped by Petr Cech and Davide "Frank" Zappacosta would hit the crossbar.  Good stuff.


Four Santas for Chester

Finally had the chance to catch virtual time up to real time.  Some important wins, especially a 2-1 victory over 2nd place Man City.  On the down side, we gave up points in an annoying 1-1 home draw with Sunderland.  A 2-0 win over Chelsea left us 11 points up on second place Man City.  Union fans might be interested that I just signed Tranquillo Barnetta for the totally reasonable transfer fee of $2.7 million to help out in the midfield.  That looked really smart after he scored the opening goal in the Chelsea win.

Check this out:
  

	Won	Drawn	Lost	GF	GA	GD	Points
Real Life Man City	19	2	0	61	12	49	59
Virtual Chester	18	3	0	62	14	48	57

Yeah, me and Pep are quite similar.  Except I have more hair.

Belgian Injuries

BFS World Cup fave Belgium has seen some of its key players go down recently.  Lukaku suffered a concussion against Southampton but is expected back by mid-January.  Kevin deBruyne was stretchered off after that ugly tackle from Puncheon but has already returned.  Maybe not so lucky is Vincent Kompany.  As we sat down to take in Man City - Newcastle, Michael B sarcastically asked how long before Kompany has to leave with a calf injury.  Turns out the answer was just 11 minutes.  Initial reports were bad but now it appears he may be back within a week.  This may be a now-or-never World Cup for a Belgium side that has promised so much; here's hoping they can field their best team.


Random Thoughts

- That was some storm to hit England on January 2nd.  St. Mary's Stadium was close to flooded and you had to wonder if the rain had continued in Wales whether they could have finished the Swansea - Tottenham match

- Come to think of it, how many times do you remember seeing sunshine for many (any?) of these matches?  I realize there were a lot of night matches but still...

Hodgson and Guardiola confer during a stoppage

- Did you see the moment when Roy Hodgson and Pep Guardiola sat together while Puncheon and deBruyne were being stretchered off? Not clear to me why I thought this was so cool at the time; maybe because one of Hodgson's players had committed a rather nasty foul but Guardiola didn't go ballistic.  Looked like two managers who respected each other.


- Chris Hughton may have contracted Arsene Wenger's Winter Coat Zipper Syndrome.  He was having such a hard time he gave up and stayed unzippered for the match (Newcastle I think)

- I was stumped for this week's YouTubeableMoment, probably because it's all a pile of videos in my head. Fortunately, Obiang and Son have bailed me out with thunder strikes in an otherwise uninspiring London derby - the last match of the holiday period.  Obiang had given West Ham an 1-0 lead but Son rescued a point for Spurs.  Scroll down in this article and you'll find both videos, a YouTubeableMoment two-fer.


FA Cup

It's that time again.  Stadiums that seat 2,856.  Towns you didn't know existed.   Talk of minnows.  Yes, it's the FA Cup.  I offer this old BFS post for those looking for a deeper explanation of the competition and some of its quirkier aspects.  All EPL sides will be in action this weekend, though with the unseeded nature of this competition, some will face tougher competition than others.  For example, Newcastle face Luton Town FC, from League Two (4th division) while Liverpool and Everton must square off in another Merseyside derby.  Similarly, Spurs will face League One's AFC Wimbledon while Brighton and Crystal Palace must tangle again.  

Full details of the schedule, including TV games, are listed here; Fox Sports is your location for FA Cup matches.  Assuming you're not tired of watching...

Wake Up and Smell the Relegation

Ozil's game winner vs Newcastle; well struck and could have
been YouTubeableMoment but I don't need to see it anymore.

Despite a reasonably creditable performance against Arsenal (for the second half at least), Newcastle went down 0-1 at the Emirates and fell into the bottom three.  Everything I see says they got there on merit.  The Magpies four wins came against 14, 15, 17, and 20 in the table; the three draws were versus 7, 12 and 19.  I don't think they've been particularly unlucky, or more accurately, their luck has been balanced.  Going through the 538 metrics you can see maybe the Huddersfield, Brighton and Watford losses could have been wins and the Leicester and Everton losses could have been draws.  But at the same time, the Swansea win could have been a loss and the Crystal Palace win a draw; the Liverpool, Southampton and West Brom draws should have been losses.  So the net would be a plus three points, hardly enough to take away the danger.  My model based on goals scored/goals allowed says a team that has scored 16 and yielded 27 should have 15 points so there's nothing to suggest bad luck there either.

No, unfortunately, Newcastle look to be just about where they should be.  The 538 model now has Newcastle with a 45% chance of relegated so the $250 million on the table to buy the club is equal to $372 million in May if the Magpies were to survive.  Maybe I don't understand the timing of TV money or something but I can't see Ashley having any leverage right now.  There are so many reports coming out but always sourced as "someone familiar with the negotiations" so it's hard to put too much stock in them.  But it does sound increasingly unlikely that a deal could be completed before the January transfer window ends.  Limited or no spending means it's going to be close as to whether they can stay up.

Thursday morning update - Newcastle sign Chelsea's Robert Kenedy (not a typo) on loan deal.  Positives?  He can play anywhere on left side and he brings some pace to a team not tremendously blessed with speed.  Negatives?  This year has only featured in League Cup matches and can get himself in hot water.  I rate this as more than just "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" but the iceberg still looms ahead.


In Another League?

Let's see, Man City shrugged off one of the purported challengers - Tottenham - with an easy 4-1 win while others in the chase pack mostly did little to distinguish themselves. Man United (2-1 over West Brom), Chelsea (1-0 over Southampton) and Arsenal (1-0 over Newcastle) were hardly overwhelming in their handling of weaker sides.  Liverpool did dispatch Bournemouth rather easily; perhaps recalling how they coughed up a 2-0 lead to lose 3-4 in this fixture last year, the Reds put the hammer down and pulled away.  And the defender Liverpool fans love to hate - Dejan Lovren - got a highlight reel goal with his parallel to the ground diving header; we'll make it this week's
YouTubeableMoment.


Playing With 10 Men Is No Way to Go Through the EPL

Watford now have a three game streak of having a man sent off.  They lost all three.  This weekend, already down 0-2, Deeney got his red card at 33 minutes and the Hornets went on to lose 1-4, this despite the sporting gesture of Huddersfield to get a man of their own sent off at 61 minutes.  Last week the ejection was in the 39th minute of a 0-0 match that they went on to lose 0-1 to Burnley.  But the most spectacular of the series was when Tom Cleverley got himself a red card in the 87th minute with Watford up 1-0 vs Crystal Palace; about six minutes later they had lost 1-2.  Marco Silva is probably really wishing he had gotten the Everton job.


Did He Dive? Ndidi Did

Win or lose, Crystal Palace may be the most watchable side in the EPL.  Always something fun happening.  Though this week's match with Leicester might not have been as competitive as expected, the match was highly entertaining.  Great back and forth action.  And the icing on the cake was perhaps one of the finest dives in recent memory.  Watch here as Wilfred Ndidi goes down without a whisper of contact.  Looks like it may be worth 5 Ronaldos but I'm not a certified diving judge.  Maybe BFS co-founder Dennis will weigh in with his assessment in the Comments section.  With the 3-0 win, the Eagles escaped the relegation zone.


Mid-season Assessment

Looking at the results to date and the 538 projections, we're looking at three distinct groups - the Champions League contenders, the middle of the table and the relegation candidates.  The forecasted EPL table is here.  The CL candidates are the usual suspects - Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.  The tiny mid table is Burnley, Watford, Leicester and Everton.  The rest are the relegation candidates.  Some look less relegatable than others; I'll put Southampton, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield and maybe West Ham in that category.

For the fun of it, I repeated the Newcastle exercise of looking at results to see how luck has or hasn't been a factor in a team's standing.  See the table below - first column points to date, second is based on 538 analysis of each match and third column is my goals scored/goals allowed model.  The 538 approach is about goals that coulda/shoulda been scored based on chances created so the luck aspect there is about scoring/not giving up goals.  My approach is more about distribution of goals that were scored or not allowed; was a team unlucky in the distribution of goals across the matches they've played?

                                      Actual      538           SF

Man City	52	54	43
Man United	41	32	41
Burnley	32	19	30
Tottenham	31	42	35
Crystal Palace	17	33	13
Newcastle	15	18	15

The 538 analysis says Man City outplayed Everton but only got a draw so only bad luck there.  My goal differential model assumes a certain number of draws; maybe the Citizens have been a little lucky not to see more draws - or they might just be that good.  These were not necessarily random picks of teams to review but it did work out nicely in terms of contrasts.  Man United look to have had good luck, at least based on the 538 model, while Spurs not so much (under either approach).  Similarly, Burnley seem to have been quite fortunate in terms of chances created while Crystal Palace could use a rabbit's foot.   This kind of stuff tends to even out over time so while Burnley are not going to be in a relegation battle, they probably don't have the stuff of Champions League (doesn't mean I want to play them at Turf Moor though).  Probably means Michael B shouldn't despair of Spurs' Champions League hopes.  Newcastle? As I said earlier, WYSIWYG and I'll be settling in for a relegation fight.


Let the Festivities Begin

Technically, last weekend was the start of the Twelve Days of Football but it really gets going this Friday.  And a tasty start it will be, with Arsenal - Liverpool at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Nine more games on Saturday, eight on Tuesday and single games on Wednesday and Thursday.  Take a day to rest, then games everyday from Saturday through Thursday.

Newcastle have a tremendously important match against West Ham on Saturday (10 am CNBC).  Last time we faced them, the Hammers were in their "blue period" and we got an easy 3-0 victory.  Form has completely switched plus the match is at Olympic Stadium.  West Ham are exactly the type of side that will define Newcastle's relegation struggle.  The Boxing Day match is Man City so not seeing any points there.  Then they have Brighton and Stoke - two more relegation competitors - on 12/30 and 1/1.  So three critical matches in short order.  Scary thought.

Not seeing a lot of blockbuster matchups in the holiday period but there are some notables.  Like a good 'ol London derby - Arsenal-Chelsea - on 1/3 at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Will be watching this Saturday as Spurs travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley; last time Tottenham faced a mid-table team known for its defense (Huddersfield) they hammered them 4-0.  The rest of the Spurs holiday calendar isn't real frightening, with Southampton, Swansea and West Ham completing their schedule.

Normally I would be all over Swansea-Crystal Palace (I'm serious - always an interesting fixture) but it might be tough to see given that it's on NBC Gold at the same time as Newcastle.  Oh, who am I kidding?  I'll watch as many of these as I can get to.

No post next week as I'll be watching too much and also have some writing to do at my other gig.  We'll be back the first week in January with the holiday game ratings.  Enjoy the holidays!