Wake Up and Smell the Relegation

Ozil's game winner vs Newcastle; well struck and could have
been YouTubeableMoment but I don't need to see it anymore.

Despite a reasonably creditable performance against Arsenal (for the second half at least), Newcastle went down 0-1 at the Emirates and fell into the bottom three.  Everything I see says they got there on merit.  The Magpies four wins came against 14, 15, 17, and 20 in the table; the three draws were versus 7, 12 and 19.  I don't think they've been particularly unlucky, or more accurately, their luck has been balanced.  Going through the 538 metrics you can see maybe the Huddersfield, Brighton and Watford losses could have been wins and the Leicester and Everton losses could have been draws.  But at the same time, the Swansea win could have been a loss and the Crystal Palace win a draw; the Liverpool, Southampton and West Brom draws should have been losses.  So the net would be a plus three points, hardly enough to take away the danger.  My model based on goals scored/goals allowed says a team that has scored 16 and yielded 27 should have 15 points so there's nothing to suggest bad luck there either.

No, unfortunately, Newcastle look to be just about where they should be.  The 538 model now has Newcastle with a 45% chance of relegated so the $250 million on the table to buy the club is equal to $372 million in May if the Magpies were to survive.  Maybe I don't understand the timing of TV money or something but I can't see Ashley having any leverage right now.  There are so many reports coming out but always sourced as "someone familiar with the negotiations" so it's hard to put too much stock in them.  But it does sound increasingly unlikely that a deal could be completed before the January transfer window ends.  Limited or no spending means it's going to be close as to whether they can stay up.

Thursday morning update - Newcastle sign Chelsea's Robert Kenedy (not a typo) on loan deal.  Positives?  He can play anywhere on left side and he brings some pace to a team not tremendously blessed with speed.  Negatives?  This year has only featured in League Cup matches and can get himself in hot water.  I rate this as more than just "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" but the iceberg still looms ahead.


In Another League?

Let's see, Man City shrugged off one of the purported challengers - Tottenham - with an easy 4-1 win while others in the chase pack mostly did little to distinguish themselves. Man United (2-1 over West Brom), Chelsea (1-0 over Southampton) and Arsenal (1-0 over Newcastle) were hardly overwhelming in their handling of weaker sides.  Liverpool did dispatch Bournemouth rather easily; perhaps recalling how they coughed up a 2-0 lead to lose 3-4 in this fixture last year, the Reds put the hammer down and pulled away.  And the defender Liverpool fans love to hate - Dejan Lovren - got a highlight reel goal with his parallel to the ground diving header; we'll make it this week's
YouTubeableMoment.


Playing With 10 Men Is No Way to Go Through the EPL

Watford now have a three game streak of having a man sent off.  They lost all three.  This weekend, already down 0-2, Deeney got his red card at 33 minutes and the Hornets went on to lose 1-4, this despite the sporting gesture of Huddersfield to get a man of their own sent off at 61 minutes.  Last week the ejection was in the 39th minute of a 0-0 match that they went on to lose 0-1 to Burnley.  But the most spectacular of the series was when Tom Cleverley got himself a red card in the 87th minute with Watford up 1-0 vs Crystal Palace; about six minutes later they had lost 1-2.  Marco Silva is probably really wishing he had gotten the Everton job.


Did He Dive? Ndidi Did

Win or lose, Crystal Palace may be the most watchable side in the EPL.  Always something fun happening.  Though this week's match with Leicester might not have been as competitive as expected, the match was highly entertaining.  Great back and forth action.  And the icing on the cake was perhaps one of the finest dives in recent memory.  Watch here as Wilfred Ndidi goes down without a whisper of contact.  Looks like it may be worth 5 Ronaldos but I'm not a certified diving judge.  Maybe BFS co-founder Dennis will weigh in with his assessment in the Comments section.  With the 3-0 win, the Eagles escaped the relegation zone.


Mid-season Assessment

Looking at the results to date and the 538 projections, we're looking at three distinct groups - the Champions League contenders, the middle of the table and the relegation candidates.  The forecasted EPL table is here.  The CL candidates are the usual suspects - Man City, Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.  The tiny mid table is Burnley, Watford, Leicester and Everton.  The rest are the relegation candidates.  Some look less relegatable than others; I'll put Southampton, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield and maybe West Ham in that category.

For the fun of it, I repeated the Newcastle exercise of looking at results to see how luck has or hasn't been a factor in a team's standing.  See the table below - first column points to date, second is based on 538 analysis of each match and third column is my goals scored/goals allowed model.  The 538 approach is about goals that coulda/shoulda been scored based on chances created so the luck aspect there is about scoring/not giving up goals.  My approach is more about distribution of goals that were scored or not allowed; was a team unlucky in the distribution of goals across the matches they've played?

                                      Actual      538           SF

Man City	52	54	43
Man United	41	32	41
Burnley	32	19	30
Tottenham	31	42	35
Crystal Palace	17	33	13
Newcastle	15	18	15

The 538 analysis says Man City outplayed Everton but only got a draw so only bad luck there.  My goal differential model assumes a certain number of draws; maybe the Citizens have been a little lucky not to see more draws - or they might just be that good.  These were not necessarily random picks of teams to review but it did work out nicely in terms of contrasts.  Man United look to have had good luck, at least based on the 538 model, while Spurs not so much (under either approach).  Similarly, Burnley seem to have been quite fortunate in terms of chances created while Crystal Palace could use a rabbit's foot.   This kind of stuff tends to even out over time so while Burnley are not going to be in a relegation battle, they probably don't have the stuff of Champions League (doesn't mean I want to play them at Turf Moor though).  Probably means Michael B shouldn't despair of Spurs' Champions League hopes.  Newcastle? As I said earlier, WYSIWYG and I'll be settling in for a relegation fight.


Let the Festivities Begin

Technically, last weekend was the start of the Twelve Days of Football but it really gets going this Friday.  And a tasty start it will be, with Arsenal - Liverpool at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Nine more games on Saturday, eight on Tuesday and single games on Wednesday and Thursday.  Take a day to rest, then games everyday from Saturday through Thursday.

Newcastle have a tremendously important match against West Ham on Saturday (10 am CNBC).  Last time we faced them, the Hammers were in their "blue period" and we got an easy 3-0 victory.  Form has completely switched plus the match is at Olympic Stadium.  West Ham are exactly the type of side that will define Newcastle's relegation struggle.  The Boxing Day match is Man City so not seeing any points there.  Then they have Brighton and Stoke - two more relegation competitors - on 12/30 and 1/1.  So three critical matches in short order.  Scary thought.

Not seeing a lot of blockbuster matchups in the holiday period but there are some notables.  Like a good 'ol London derby - Arsenal-Chelsea - on 1/3 at 2:45 on NBCSN.  Will be watching this Saturday as Spurs travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley; last time Tottenham faced a mid-table team known for its defense (Huddersfield) they hammered them 4-0.  The rest of the Spurs holiday calendar isn't real frightening, with Southampton, Swansea and West Ham completing their schedule.

Normally I would be all over Swansea-Crystal Palace (I'm serious - always an interesting fixture) but it might be tough to see given that it's on NBC Gold at the same time as Newcastle.  Oh, who am I kidding?  I'll watch as many of these as I can get to.

No post next week as I'll be watching too much and also have some writing to do at my other gig.  We'll be back the first week in January with the holiday game ratings.  Enjoy the holidays!