Fortunes Were Changed

This was a volatile weekend for "stock prices" of EPL sides.  One constant though was that the Union failed to score again.

WINNERS

Newcastle

Raving lunatics in action

The 3-1 win over Brighton didn't lead to an increase in stock price but rather a halt in the precipitous decline of the last few months.  The relief and celebration that spread around Saint James' Park at the final whistle might have led you to think that the Magpies had just fended off relegation as opposed to solidifying their hold on 13th in the table.  Technically, it's true that the win did put those long relegation odds to bed but it was more about them remembering how to win a match.  Osula got another one courtesy of a fine cross from Jacob Murphy.  The most impressive thing about the play, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, is that instead of staying down for a possible foul, Murphy got up to deliver the cross.  

A second goal on a Dan Burn header meant that 1) Newcastle had its first two goal lead in forever and 2) the rest of the match would be spent wondering how the Magpies would blow it.  They did concede a goal at 60 minutes and gave away some scary chances for Brighton to level.  They also missed a few golden opportunities to put the match away.  Finally, in stoppage time Harvey Barnes got the insurance goal to give the home fans some peace for the final seconds.

The win drops their relegation chances at Opta to 0%.  They are also showing up with a .03%  of finishing 6th, which could still get one a Champions League berth.  Right. Other European spots are also technically in play, though with so many sides ahead of them, the chances are slim.  Realistically, there is no place, up or down, for them to go at this point.  

Spurs

Conor Gallagher's first goal for
Spurs was a big one

No bigger winners this weekend than Spurs.  They went into the weekend as the prohibitive favorite to be the third relegatee but came away with a massive 2-1 win over Aston Villa.  It's true that Villa rested some starters and were missing McGinn due to injury but this was a still a beat down that wasn't as close as the score suggests.  The unexpected points dropped Spurs relegation chances to 21%, down from last week's 59%.  Basically, they have control over their destiny now.

Arsenal

Seems like just a few weeks ago we were wondering where Arsenal's dream season had gone.  Turns out it was right there all the time.  They easily took care of EPL business with a 3-0 win over Fulham.  Their title hopes then got a big boost when Man City could only draw 3-3 with Everton on Monday.  Opta now has them with an 86% chance of winning the Premier League, up from 72%.  Dennis thought with West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace as the Gunners' remaining opponents, that seemed low.

The good week continued with a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League semi for a 2-1 win on aggregate.  A close match but not all that intriguing. Arsenal fans won't care I'm sure.  They'll play PSG, who finished off Bayern in a boring 1-1 second leg for a 6-5 aggregate win, for the Champions League title on May 30th.

Nottingham Forest and Leeds

Leeds and Nottingham Forest pretty much got themselves across the relegation finish line with wins over Burnley and Chelsea respectively.

Man United

The win over Liverpool confirmed their Champions League spot for next year.  Their next big decision is do they keep Carrick?

LOSERS

West Ham

The big loser of the weekend was West Ham.  With their 0-3 loss to Brentford and Spurs win, the Hammers relegation odds went from 38% to 79%.  With Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds for their run in, the chances don't look promising that Nuno will be able to keep the team up.

 

Man City

The Everton - Man City match was supposed to be my chance for a nap on the Monday calendar but it turned into a great contest.  City had an early lead but a Guehi howler helped level it.  Everton then built a 3-1 lead that a lasted for two minutes before Haaland got one back.  The Toffees carried the lead late into stoppage time, looking at a massive three points to boost their chances for a spot in one of next year's European competitions.  Doku dashed those hopes with this equalizer at 90+7.

The thing is, though City rescued a point, they couldn't afford to drop two points here.  

Chelsea

For the record, the 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest was Chelsea's sixth straight league loss.  However, at least they scored for the first time in league play since March 4th.

Brighton

Nobody loses to Newcastle these days. It put a slight crimp in their hopes for Europe next year but they are still in the mix along with Bournemouth and Brentford.

RECOVERING

Aston Villa

McGinn's brace buried Forest

The recent run of poor league form had been annoying, though they were in little danger of losing their Champions League spot.  However, the 4-0 trouncing of Nottingham Forest in the second leg of their Europa League tie was an emphatic reminder of their potential.  Down 0-1 after the first leg, they did have the run of play for the first half but didn't cash in until Buendia and Watkins teamed up in the 36th minute to level things.  Buendia converted a second half PK before McGinn added a brace to completely shut the door.  Forest had been a bit of trendy pick based on recent results.  Also, it's fair to note that they were without Gibbs-White, who sustained facial injuries in the win over Chelsea.

Crystal Palace

Kind of the same story as Villa, with the Eagles falling to 15th in the table off of recent form.  They took care of Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 in aggregate to reach the finals of Europa Conference League.  A win over Rayo in the final would get Palace to next year's Europa League, a spot they probably can't get through league play at this point.

End of Month Planning

The remaining finals go like this:

5/16 - FA Cup Final - Chelsea vs Man City

5/20 - Europa League Final - Aston Villa vs Freiburg

5/27 - Europa Conference League Final - Crystal Palace vs Rayo

5/30 - Champions League Final - Arsenal vs PSG

Note that the EPL is represented in all three European finals.

Another Clean Sheet of the Wrong Kind

The Union continue to look good across most of the pitch - except the final third.  In the 0-0 draw with Nashville, they generated an xG of 1.3 but couldn't find the net.  I think they had two off the post compared to just one for Nashville.  The good news is that they played a very good Nashville side even up.  But even with the point, they are in last place, three behind Montreal.  Eesh.

A Lighter Week

We probably do need to get up for the 7:30 contest between Liverpool and Chelsea.  Or maybe not, Opta has the Reds as big home favorites here.  Three choices at 10 am except there's really only one - Fulham vs Bournemouth.  Other options of Brighton - Wolves and Sunderland - Man United don't seem worth it.

The 12:30 match is Man City Brentford; City can afford no more slip ups.

The Sunday 9 am slot is busy with Burnley - Aston Villa, Crystal Palace - Everton and Nottingham Forest - Newcastle.  We have to go with Magpies but neutrals might do best with Palace versus Everton.  Ouch, just saw that Forest are big favorite over Newcastle.  The 11:30 match up is critical but not enticing as West Ham host Arsenal.

Monday's contest between Spurs and Leeds is important; this could be a chance for Spurs to put some space between themselves and the relegation zone.  

Man City cash in their game in hand on Wednesday versus Crystal Palace

Union travel to face revitalized a New England side.  I'm quite surprised that Opta barely has the Revolution favored even at home.  I suppose if you offered me a 0-0 draw at kick-off, I'd probably take it.