Not Ready For Prime Time

Both Newcastle and Aston Villa threw away golden opportunities to solidify their positions in the table with poor showings against weaker opponents. Maybe they are not quite prepared for life at the top.  They weren't the only teams dropping points.

A One Point "Loss"

I count 16 players in the box; hard to get the shot on target
Photo: Getty Images

Results on Saturday meant that a Newcastle win on Sunday at Wolves would lift them to fifth in the table.  Instead, they stumbled through a 0-0 draw.  Though it counts as one point in the standings, this was really a loss for which the Magpies got one point.  The Newcastle offense never showed up as they didn't get a shot on target until the 85th minute and managed just two for the whole match.  Fortunately, the Wolves were even less threatening; they had just two shots on target as well and their xG was a mere .28.  At some point we will have to admit how dependent this team was on Alexander Isak.

A Riddle

Q: What's the difference between the massive Verizon outage that left millions without cell service and the Newcastle offensive outage that resulted in two straight shut outs?

A: Newcastle fans will not be getting a $20 refund. 

A Zero Point Loss

Aston Villa stumbled even worse than the Magpies, falling to Everton 0-1 at home.  The losing tally (seen here), was one of the season's uglier goals.  Multiple sets of fingerprints were lifted from the crime scene, including Konsa for a weak clearing effort, Pau Torres for giving the ball away, Martinez for not pushing the shot further wide and an unidentified defender who failed to follow Barry for the rebound.  The xG (1.40-.55 favor the Villans) suggests maybe a draw would have been a fairer result but watching live you could feel that this was not Aston Villa's day.  Adding injury to insult, John McGinn will now miss several weeks due to a knee injury.  Dennis points out the combination of injuries and lack of funds is leaving Villa shorthanded right now. 

Conversation That Took Place Only in My Head

Steve: Did you say Morgan Rogers was playing with a stomach virus?

Dennis: No, I said he can't keep anything down today.

Dropped Points All Around

New Man United boss Michael Carrick has a perfect
record in Manchester derbies (1-0-0)
Photo : Getty Images

Every club in the top six heading into the weekend dropped points.  We already told you about
Newcastle and Aston Villa but here are the others:

- Arsenal could only manage a 0-0 draw with 17th place Nottingham Forest

- Man City fell 0-2 to Man United with the Citizens managing no shots on target and an xG of .44; maybe this was a classic new manager bounce as United were playing their first match under Michael Carrick

- Liverpool drew 1-1 with Burnley as the Clarets made their one shot on target count

- Brentford were beaten 0-2 by Chelsea; the stats suggest the Bees deserved more but it didn't happen

The World Turned Upside Down?

On the other hand, all of the bottom six sides going into the weekend managed to collect points.  Besides Wolves, Burnley and Nottingham Forest:

- West Ham stole three points from Spurs with a scruffy stoppage time goal from Callum Wilson; we discussed the respective managers last week so the 2-1 result was a big W for Nuno and more bad news for Frank (we thought he might not make it to the weekend but appears to have survived for the moment)

- Leeds took a healthy step away from the relegation zone with a 1-0 win over Fulham

- Bournemouth were seconds away from getting all three against Brighton until an awesome bicycle kick from 18 year old Charalampos Kostoulas leveled things at 90+1; we make the goal this week's YouTubeableMoment

No Miracles?

With two Jesuses on the pitch (Gabriel for Arsenal and Igor for Nottingham Forest) we might have expected something special but all we got was a 0-0 draw.  Maybe they cancelled each other out.  On second thought, Forest holding Arsenal scoreless might be a miracle.

Better in Europe?

He's not exaggerating this time: Bruno could be out with an ankle injury

Most of the EPL sides had a better time of it in the European competitions than they did in their  domestic league.  Newcastle built a quick 2-0 lead (okay they were mistakes by PSV) and pretty much ran through to an easy 3-0 win.  The result guarantees they will at least be in the playoffs for advancement to the knockout stage and leaves them with a chance for a top eight finish. The excitement of that win was muted by an injury to Guimaraes; the extent isn't known yet.

Arsenal bested a good Inter side 3-1 and Spurs were a solid 2-0 winner over Dortmund; sure Spurs had a man advantage for much of the match but they had already been taking the game to their German opponents before the red card.  Chelsea edged Pafos 1-0 and Liverpool bested Marseille 3-0.  Only Man City failed to come through, posting an inexplicable 1-3 loss to Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt; just when you think they are ready to bust out they put up matches like this and the loss to Man United.

All the EPL sides look good for continuing in the CL.  Arsenal will finish top eight regardless of next week's results.  With wins, Liverpool and Spurs will make top eight as well.  Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle all have a shot as well but it looks like there could be a lot of teams ending league play with 16 points so goal differential will likely come into play.  

In Europa Cup action, Aston Villa cut it really close but came away with a 1-0 over Fenerbahc and are guaranteed a top eight finish and automatic advancement to the knockout phase.  Nottingham Forest were not so fortunate, falling 1-0 to Braga; Morgan Gibbs-White failed to convert a PK and seconds later they surrendered an own goal.  Top eight is not out but unlikely for them; they will finish in the top 24 and be in the knockout playoffs in February.

 

Almost the Same As Last Week

EPL match week 23 runs from Saturday - Monday, Champions League action is on Wednesday and Europa Cup matches are Thursday.

With some notable exceptions, this weekend's matches aren't as hot as one would like with a foot of snow forecast a major winter storm forecast maybe some precipitation forecast for Saturday-Sunday-Monday.  There is the BFS derby at 9 am Sunday with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa.  Both sides are missing key players but we still expect a good match.  That's followed at 11:30 by Arsenal - Man United; we're a little more excited about that one based on United's performance against Man City last week. Opta disagrees, listing Arsenal as 71% for the win and 16% for a draw.  Here's hoping for a continued new manager bounce for Man United.

The early 7:30 Saturday match is West Ham versus Sunderland; Opta has this one pretty close so maybe I will be there from the start.  The 10 am choices are a mixed bag.  I'm going with Burnley - Spurs to root on Thomas Frank so maybe he can avoid the sack.  Your other choices are Fulham - Brighton (probably a competitive match) or Man City - Wolves (a frustrated City team ready to take it out on somebody?).  The 12:30 feature match is Bournemouth - Liverpool.  Blah.

Sunday, besides the BFS derby and Arsenal - Man United, you could do Crystal Palace - Chelsea or Brentford - Nottingham Forest at 9 am.  The matchweek concludes Monday with a lower table match featuring Everton - Leeds.

Champions League gets to Match day 8 of  8.  To prevent strategic score manipulation, all 18 matches kick off at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Newcastle have a tough fixture at PSG so I'm not holding out hope for any points there.  The other guys have easier paths:

Liverpool - Grabbag Qarabag FK

Napoli - Chelsea

Entracht Frankfurt - Spurs

Arsenal - Kairat

Man City - Galatasary

Except for Arsenal, who for all practical purposes have clinched first, all need a win to have a chance at a top eight finish.

The Europa Cup is the same deal  - all fixtures are on Thursday at 3.  Aston Villa face RB Salzburg but know they are guaranteed top eight.  Nottingham Forest take on Ferencvaros; they are in no man's land as even a win probably won't get them a top eight spot and even a loss probably doesn't drop them out of the knockout round playoffs.

Yikes, high of 20 degrees on Sunday?  Those matches better be good.