The Dog Days of December

A pile of results.  You know what that means...mostly random observations.  Get ready for the holiday fixture congestion as the EPL will cram in six more match weeks between this weekend and January 3/4.  If you're in a European competition add one more match and if you're still in the Carabao Cup, add another.  In total, Newcastle will play nine matches between 12/2/25 and 1/4/26.

Not Deja vu All Over Again

Already winning over fans with his defense,
 Thiaw got a brace versus Everton

After watching Malick Thiaw score in the first minute, then seeing Everton slowly take over the game, I was thinking I'd seen this movie before.  Newcastle wouldn't score again and would eventually cough up two goals for another 2-1 loss on the road.  Fortunately, the script had been sent back for a rewrite.

The Magpies survived their 20 minute power outage without surrendering a goal and started to take back the game.  I won't say they dominated but Lewis Miley's goal at 25 minutes was not against the run of play.  Not wanting to be greedy, I just hoped that Newcastle would get to the locker room with that 2-0 lead.  Better than that, Voldemorte's cheeky chip at 45 minutes made it 3-0 at the half.  Thiaw added another at 58 minutes to end any thought of an Everton comeback.  A late consolation goal from Dewsbury-Hall made the final 4-1.

I thought Aaron Ramsdale's appearance in goal was a tactical choice by Eddie Howe based on some sketchy work by Nick Pope recently but turns out Pope sustained a groin injury in practice.  We'll be interested to see what Howe does when Pope is healthy.  We were glad to see Dan Burn return to his day job as center back rather than continue to "moonlight" as a left fullback.  He's not awful out wide but can occasionally find himself outpaced.  Lewis Hall is the better option.

Newcastle did bring back parts of the old script for their Tuesday afternoon contest at home to Spurs.  At least the part about coughing up the lead.  They thoroughly dominated their guests but didn't score until the 71st minute.  Romero answered with an equalizer at 78 minutes and thoughts of a 1-2 loss swirled.  Deviating from the old script, Newcastle retook the lead after a foul in the box by Bentancur that was smartly converted by Gordon.  Opinion varies on whether Bentancur actually fouled Burn; at first glance it looked like it was mutual entanglement but the VAR sent Tom Bramall to the monitor where he decided that Bentancur was the guilty party.  Of course, that 86th minute tally did not seal the victory, as Newcastle conceded another equalizer at 90+5 on the most unlikely of bicycle kicks from of all people Romero.  Grr.  Reluctantly, we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Spurs managed only two shots on target but managed to score on both.  

Seven points from the last three is an improvement for sure and the Magpies have climbed to 12th in the table.  But the lost points continue to mount up; they have dropped 11 points from winning positions.  This is not the path to the Champions League.

NBA Game of the Week

You know the adage, save yourself the time and just tune into the final minutes of NBA games because the first 40+ minutes don't matter.  Brentford and Burnley did that this week.  You could have skipped the first 80 minutes and still caught the keys plays, uncluding four goals in the last 10+ minutes.  The Newcastle - Spurs fixture got honorable mention in this category.

Playing to the Level of Your Opponent

Three Brighton defender were unable to stop Watkins
Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images

Aston Villla came away with six points over the two matchweeks.  They dominated an outmanned Wolves at home and barely came away with the 1-0 win.  On Wednesday, they quickly fell behind Brighton 2-0 at Amex Stadium, then roared (snuck) back to take a 4-2 lead.  Surrending a late goal meant an exciting finish but they held on for a 4-3 win.  Perhaps the best news there is that Ollie Watkins broke out of his slump for two the goals.  The Villans are now third in the table.  According to xgscore.io, Villa have the biggest positive difference between "expected" and actual points.  Based on expected goals scored and allowed, they figure Aston Villa should have 16.3 points compared to the 27 they do have.  Sunderland at 15.2/23 have the second biggest differential.  Whether this means Villa have been extraordinarily lucky, more clinical in the attack, stronger in defense or all of the above, we don't know but that's a differential that bears watching.

Non-NBA Game of the Week

The aforementioned Brighton - Aston Villa classic was the opposite of an NBA game.  You needed to tune in on time and watch the whole thing.  Fulham - Man City gets honorable mention in this category.  City had leads of 3-0, 4-1 and 5-1 before hanging on for the 5-4 win.

The Report of Sunderland's Death Was An Exaggeration

As Bournemouth jumped out to an 0-2 lead against Sunderland the Stadium of Light, last week's discussion about the how the Black Cats luck might be running out seemed apt.  Wrong.  Helped by a penalty, Sunderland leveled things by the 46th minute, then found the game winner from Brobby (at least the second late game winner for him that I know of).  The xG of 1.26/1.81 compared to the 3-2 final suggests their luck is still going strong.

Sunderland followed that up with a 1-1 draw against Liverpool at Anfield.  I didn't see the match but the stats say this was more luck for the Black Cats.  Possession was 66/34, shots 22/9, shots on target 6/5 and xG 1.39/.55, all in favor of Liverpool.  See the last line of the Villa report.

Sean Dyche Is Livid

Dyche was not happy with the VAR 
Photo by Molly Darlington/Getty Images

I would be too if VAR took over five minutes to rule out a goal for offside.  You can see the play here. Granted, this was a judgment call - not whether Ndoye was in an offside position but whether he interfered with the keeper.  Still, if the threshold is a clear and obvious error, taking five minutes to decide means it wasn't.  In this case though, I would argue that it was clear and obvious that Ndoye blocked the keeper's view so this should have taken about a minute at most.  Part of me wonders whether part of the review was whether to call a foul on the Wolves defender who can been seen wrestling a Forest attacker to the ground.  In the end, Nottingham Forest eventually did get a goal to win 1-0 anyway but not a good look for VAR.

Stuff at the "Top"

Arsenal  could only manage a 1-1 draw with Chelsea despite playing up a man for over 60 minutes.  Watching the game, it seemed like the Blues had the man advantage.  Also, massive amounts of shithousery included 26 fouls, seven yellows, the red card to Caicedo and endless histrionics.  The Gunners did get a 2-0 midweek win over Brentford.  Man City had narrow wins over Leeds and Fulham to close the gap with Arsenal to five points.  Chelsea probably not too upset with the draw to Arsenal but the home loss to Leeds will not go over well.  Five dropped points leave them in fourth, nine back of Arsenal.

Stuff at the "Bottom"

Wolves continued their potential record breaking season with two more shutout losses.  They are a 0-2-12 with seven goals scored in those 14 matches; they haven't scored since before Halloween.  Looking at xgscore.io, we can see that Wolves are the opposite of Aston Villa and Sunderland.  Based on expected goals, that site calculates Wolves should have 14.1 points instead of just two.  Burnley also came away with nothing in these two match weeks to remain in 19th.  A surprise point for West Ham in a 1-1 draw against Man United wasn't enough to move them out of 18th, since both Nottingham Forest and Leeds picked up wins.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place But Might Have

Dennis: Did you say that Arsenal fans are becoming more religious?

Steve: No, I said they are looking forward to the return of Jesus.

Messi vs Muller

I tuned in briefly to the two conference finals on Saturday and found I was overcome with feelings of "I don't give a crap."  That Miami and Vancouver were already up 2-0 on their opponents definitely contributed to that feeling.  Also, the 6 pm start time for Miami - NYCFC didn't help.  To quote Arlo Guthrie "there was a third possibility."  I don't follow the MLS, just the Philadelphia Union and when they are done, so am I.  Not proud of that but it may be a fact.

So the US pro league championship will be a battle between an aging German star (Thomas Muller) and an aging Argentine star (Lionel Messi), which Michael B points out is a replay of the 2014 World Cup Final.  Obviously there will be 20 other players out on the pitch but expect the prematch punditry to focus on those two (see right).  The match is 2:30 on Sunday on Fox and Apple.  Too bad it doesn't overlap the Eagles game; that would give us an excuse to avoid watching another excruciating performance from the Birds.

World Cup Draw on Friday

Tomorrow is the draw for World Cup Finals in whiche we find out who will play whom in the group stage.  Details can be had here.  You can watch live on Fox starting at noon.  The best thing about the draw is that it will begin months of speculation as to which of the 12 is the most difficult, the Group of Death as they call it.  As opposed to the Group of Flesh Wound, Group of Lingering Sinus Infection, Group of Athlete's Foot, etc.  

Busy Again

With Matchweek 15 running from Saturday to Monday and European stuff Tuesday to Thursday, we will have plenty to watch.

We will roust ourselves to get up for Aston Villa -Arsenal at 7:30 on Saturday.  Villa usually play to the level of their opponent so we're going to expect a good contest.  The 10 am slot is crowded (unnecessarily?) with five fixtures.  We will take in Newcastle - Burnley and hope the Magpies take care of business there; anything less than the full three points is a loss.  Other choices include Everton - Nottingham Forest, Man City - Sunderland, Tottenham - Brentford (London derby), and Bournemouth -Chelsea.  Maybe Everton - Forest is the best choice for the neutral as Sean Dyche returns to Merseyside.  We'll see how Sunderland's luck holds out against Man City.  The feature 12:30 match is Leeds - Liverpool.

Just two matches on Sunday (hence our question about why pack the 10 am time slot) with Brighton - West Ham at 9 and Fulham - Crystal Palace (another London derby) at 11:30.  The week concludes wtih Wolves - Man United at 3 on Monday.

Newcastle's opponent for Matchweek 6 of Champions League is Leverkusen away at 3 pm on Wednesday.  Not an issue for me but I suspect more will want to see Real Madrid vs Man City at the same time.  Arsenal get Club Brugge away, also at the same time.  Tuesday has Chelsea traveling to Atalanta, Liverpool away to Inter, and Spurs hosting Slavia Praha.  

Aston Villa travel to Switzerland to face Basal Basil Basel, which looks like another opponent ripe for the taking; probably another 1-0 win knowing Villa.