Stuffed

Big win for Newcastle but the Union exit the MLS Cup playoffs. Mixed week in Europe for the EPL.

Somebody Left the Barnes' Door Open

I told Michael B that I anticipate the Newcastle - Man City fixture as much as my annual physical.  I forgot that sometimes the doctor says you're in great health and keep doing what you're doing.

Harvey Barnes Miss of the Year: If at first you don't succeed...

The first half ended 0-0 and the Magpies had given as good as they got.  Both sides had missed some
golden opportunities, none more painful than Harvey Barnes going wide from about two yards out.  Despite the strong performance, there was every reason to expect that Man City would still come away with all the points and that we would rue the missed opportunities.

Thus it was a pleasant surprise when Barnes gave Newcastle the lead at 64 minutes.  Alas, we barely had time to enjoy the lead as Dias responded a few minutes later to level things.  Barnes put them back up at 70 minutes after a scruffy looking play that required three plus minutes of VAR review.  You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMomentFiveMinutes.  VAR had to decide whether Guimaraes was off, Barnes was off, and Bananarama was fouled.  The answers were no, no, and no respectively.  More on that below.

City did not go quietly into the night and the visitors missed some pretty good chances of their own (looking at you Phil Foden).  The Magpies did hold on though to record their first league win against Man City since January 2019.  It was also the first time Eddie Howe defeated Pep in 17 league matches.  Newcastle do look a better side with Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento in the lineup.

Conversation That Sorta Did Take Place

Steve: Geez that was a scruffy looking goal by Newcastle.

Dennis: 

Semi-automated Offside Technology: Pseudo-precision and Tin Foil Hats

Who ya gonna believe - your own eyes or
 the comments sections on the internet?

Uh oh, I smell a rant coming on.  So you've seen the non-offside call against Guimaraes.   Though real time Bruno certainly looked offside, the semi-automated offside technology (SAOT) system concluded that Dias kept him on.  You can see the picture (left).  Trigger the outrage.

I will acknowledge there are at least two judgments involved in this snapshot, meaning the precision implied in the picture is overstated.  First, it's only as accurate as the decision as to the exact moment the ball was played; a little variation one way or the other might change the picture.  Second, the rule is that the arm starts at the bottom of the armpit; the line is therefore drawn where the VAR official "thinks" Dias's armpit ends as he obviously cannot see through the shirt.  Fair enough but that's what we have.  

But holy shit the stuff you can find on the internet is nuts and in some cases takes us into tin foil hat
territory.  Much attention was given to apparent differences between the real-time shot shown on TV (right) and the semi-automated picture.  Those focused on the location of Bruno's foot and the fact that in the real shot Dias is not jumping but appears to be in the SAOT picture.  Also, some insisted that the line was drawn off Dias's elbow.  You can do your own comparison but I'd suggest the foot and elbow points are simply wrong.

As for the jumping, I think the issue is those pictures are not taken at exactly the same split second.  Look at the still (left) I made from the video; Dias body looks very much like the image in the SAOT picture.

But what's really nuts is where people took this.  The more reasonable group suggested that maybe it has something to do with how the picture is rendered by the technology.  Maybe, but this system has been used in major tournaments since FIFA World Cup in 2022.  Others believed that the call was driven by "shady altering" of the picture and/or corruption from match officials and the EPL.  Still others suggested that it was evidence that the EPL is more beholden to PIF money that UAE money.  If the EPL was really out to get Man City, there would have been a massive points deduction for the 115 financial violations by the club.  Oh wait, I get it, because the EPL doesn't have the guts to do that, they are going to nickel and dime City with decisions like that.  That's some serious tin foil hat stuff.

A few other thoughts while I'm at it.  Note that the call on the field was not offside so even without the "corrupt" VAR, that would have been a goal.  Second, the result cost City one point, not three, because without the call, the match would have been a draw, not a win.  Third, the call didn't cost City anything anyway; what cost them was the fact that nobody but Haaland is a reliable goal scorer.  To wit, Maxime Esteve of Burnley continues to be City's second leading goal scorer with his two own goals for City.  And lastly, check out the classy behavior of Pep when the match ended.  As can be seen here, he was even giving the camera man shit.  

There, I feel better now.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

Leeds are a team in disarray at this time, with their manager Daniel Farke under increasing pressure for the team's performance and his personnel decisions.  Aston Villa did not exactly distinguish themselves here but did come away with the win.  They fell behind on a ugly looking play that included poor judgment by keeper Martinez, a possible foul on Martinez, a possible offside in the build up and possible handling for the goal.  VAR ruled out the last three, leaving just the Martinez error and Villa down 0-1.  Fortunately, Villa are pretty good at not getting rattled by that.  Sure enough, Morgan Rogers struck back with a nifty deflection that would have made any NHL forward proud, then a fabulous up and down free kick from about 20 yards.  The 2-1 win moves them up to fourth.

"Has your luck run out? Well, I guess you must have known it would someday." (apologies to Bob Dylan)

Certainly too early to rain on the Sunderland parade but the 1-0 loss at Fulham was the kind of contest they've been getting points from.  Also, Fulham are an opponent that, if Sunderland's resurgence is real, the Black Cats should be beating.  Watching live, the match felt more even than the stats indicate.  Fulham was better on shots (23/4), shots on target (5/2), possession (57/43) and most notably xG (2.43/.19). The Black Cats are still 7th with 19 points but their next four opponents are Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle.  We'll probably know a lot more about them in a month or so.

Too Eze?

Yeah, he would have looked better in a Spurs' kit

Well, three actually.  Though Arsenal fans are delighted with the 4-1 win over Spurs, the rest of us were stuck with a highly disappointing North London derby. Scoreless for the first 35+ minutes, the tone seemed set early on - the Gunners were outplaying Spurs in just about every phase of the game.  Trossard got Arsenal on the board at 36 minutes and Eze added a second before halftime.  He would add two more for a hat trick.  This must have been particularly galling to Spurs fans, who thought Eze was coming to their team last summer.  Richarlison got one back on a half court shot that caught Sanchez too far from home.  The stats confirm the massacre; shots were 17/3, shots on target were 8/2 and xG was 2.35/.05.  Seriously? It's like the SAT, you can get a .05 xG pretty much by showing up.

With Friends Like These...

I always thought the highlighted provision below was in Law 12 mostly as a hypothetical: 

Violent conduct is when a player uses or attempts to use excessive force or brutality against an opponent when not challenging for the ball, or against a team-mate, team official, match official, spectator or any other person, regardless of whether contact is made.

In addition, a player who, when not challenging for the ball, deliberately strikes an opponent or any other person on the head or face with the hand or arm, is guilty of violent conduct unless the force used was negligible.

In Monday's match versus Man United, Everton's Idrissa Gana Gueye (Gana on his shirt back) slapped teammate Keane after the two had exchanged words related to some shaky defense.  Though not violent per se, the tolerance for striking the face is extremely low and Gana was shown the exit.  The last laugh was on Man United, as Everton stole a 1-0 win despite playing most of the match a man short.

Chelsea kept pace with a 2-0 win over Burnley.  Liverpool did not keep pace and fell further down the table after a 0-3 loss to Nottingham Forest, at Anfield no less. Wolves remained winless after a 0-2 loss to Crystal Palace.  Brighton came back from 0-1 to take a 2-1 win from Brentford.  Nuno looked to have West Ham running all cylinders only to see them blow a two-goal lead at Bournemouth and get only a draw.

Pre-Thanksgiving Turkeys

An underwhelming show from EPL clubs in this week's action in Europe. Newcastle weren't awful in Marseille but they weren't good either.  After a decent opening 20 minutes or so in which Barnes gave the Magpies a 1-0 lead, the home side eventually took over and were the better side.  Old "friend" from his Arsenal days, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, netted a brace of early second half goals to give Marseille a 2-1 lead.  Newcastle never really responded and that was the final.  Still hungover from the City win?

Speaking of City, they fell at home 0-2 to Leverkusen.  Liverpool were smashed 1-4 at home by PSV.  Spurs were entertaining but eventually fell 5-3 to PSG.  Chelsea and Arsenal both came through fine, beating worthy opponents Barcelona and Bayern respectively.  Arsenal and Chelsea stay in the top eight so prospects for automatic advancement to the knockout stage are still good for them;  the other four are still in the top 24 which would get them to a playoff for advancement as well.

In Emery Europa Cup action, Aston Villa sort of repeated their performance at Leeds, beating an undermatched Young Boys side 2-1.  Villa did trot out a heavily rotated lineup and the match wasn't as close as the final suggests. They sit third in the league stage and look like good bets for automatic advancement to the knockout phase.

Gone Again

After watching the Sixers lose to Miami and the Eagles cough up a 21-point lead against Dallas, perhaps I should have been ready for the Union's frustrating performance in an 0-1 loss to NYCFC on Sunday.  On the other hand, it wasn't like we hadn't seen the Union have matches like this throughout the season.  NYCFC certainly didn't run over the Union but we were also left with the feeling that they could have played another 90 minutes and the U might still not have scored.  Shots were 20/6, shots on target 5/4 and xG 2.5/1, all favor our side.  

We heard talk about the 22-day layoff between the second Chicago match and this one.  Maybe that was a factor but we've seen the Union put up performances like this on regular or short rest so I'm not putting a lot of weight on that.  We heard talk of the Supporters Shield curse as 14 of the last 17 winners have failed to win the MLS Cup.  I wouldn't call it a curse, just a fact of any playoff system; there is a high probability that results in a small sample (e.g. one game) will differ from a much larger sample (e.g. 34 games).

While it's disappointing, the playoff loss shouldn't take away from the big accomplishment this year - going from 23rd out of 29 in 2024 to 1st out of 30 in 2025.

Leftovers

We get to sleep late on Saturday as they skip the 7:30 match.  Three choices at 10, none exactly intriguing.  USA offers Brentford - Burnley while Peacock has Man City - Leeds and Sunderland - Bournemouth.  I'll probably go with that last one to see how Sunderland handle a decent opponent.

The feature match at 12:30 (on USA, not NBC) has Newcastle at Everton.  That looks like a tricky fixture for the Magpies.  Opta agrees, showing it basically as a draw (37/37/26).  The increasingly frequent 3:00 Saturday special on USA is a London derby between Spurs and Fulham.

They get us back for sleeping in Saturday with a 7 am fixture between Crystal Palace and Man United.  Yikes, Opta has Palace at over 54% for the win there; can Amiron absorb another loss to a supposedly "lesser" team.   Fortunately it's on USA so you can cheat a little on your start time, catch up on DVR and still be ready for Aston Villa - Wolves at 9:05. Anything less than a solid win there and I'll have to check on Dennis.  Two other options at 9 are West Ham - Liverpool or Nottingham Forest - Brighton.  The match week closes with big London Derby between Chelsea and Arsenal at 11:30 on USA. Opta has the Gunners as slight favorites even on the road.

MLS conference finals double header Saturday night with Miami (who crushed Cincinnati 4-0) -NYCFC at 6 and San Diego -Vancouver at 9.  Both are on "free" Apple.  

No Europe stuff so it's a quiet mid week.