It's All A Blur

So many games in six days. 

A Win That Should Have Been A Draw?

Bruno just barely gets to the cross from Barnes
REUTERS/Toby Melville 

You can't get too disappointed with three points on the road but Newcastle did not exactly distinguish themselves against 16th place West Ham in their 1-0 win.  Yes, the Hammers have been somewhat better under Graham Potter.  Yes, the match was in London.  Yes, they were missing Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon.  Still, the performance highlights why Newcastle's Champions League credentials are so thin regardless of what place they currently hold.  Misplaced passes.  Easily muscled off the ball. Nine total shots, with three on goal compared to West Ham's nine and two.  On the plus side, they did play hard.  Expected goals were 1.49-.76.  Guimaraes got the game winner on a nice cross from Harvey Barnes. Overall it seemed like a razor thin margin against a lower table team.

If The Glass Slipper Fits...

Forest drive Guardiola to drink

We've been waiting for the roof to cave in on Nottingham Forest for several weeks now, dating back to a January 24th post where we noted that Forest have probably been the luckiest team this year.  And there have been a few cracks revealed since that post (5-0 loss to Bournemouth, the ridiculous first half against Newcastle, etc.).  With Saturday's 1-0 win over Man City, we may have to just stop speculating as to when they will crash.  This was a Champions League six-pointer and Forest prevailed.  Resolute defending kept them in the match long enough for Callum Hudson-Odoi to score an interesting goal in the 83rd minute, which we'll make this week's YouTubeableMoment.  There is some discussion as to whether this was a mistake by City's keeper Ederson or a great shot by Hudson-Odoi; certainly getting beaten at the near side is never a good look for a keeper.

Overall, a draw probably would have been the fairest result here. City had the lion's share of possession (70%) and out shot Forest 14-9.  On the other hand, shots on target were 4-3 favor Forest and the xG was close (.7 -.9 favor City).  Maybe Forest were lucky to get all three points but even getting one point here would have been a big result.  Forest are in third, two points up on Chelsea and four points up on Man City and Newcastle.

Who Took My 4-3 Thriller?

I was expecting a goal fest from the Brentford-Aston Villa match and the players started like they had all read the memo.  But after about 25 minutes, everything petered out.  It was like both sides had become scared of the other's attacking prowess.  Brentford had better possession but shots were basically even.  Villa did have the better xG at 1.30-.84.  A good three points for Villa but a disappointing watch for the neutral.

Five EPL Sides Still Alive in Europe

You can tell by the faces that Liverpool are losing the shootout

And Liverpool is not among them.  The Reds could not manage a goal at home against PSG and ended regular time in a 1-1 draw.  They proceeded to lose the penalty shootout 1-4.  Not a pretty exit for a team that not long ago looked to have a claim on the title of best club in Europe.  The FA Cup and Champions League are gone, though they still have the EPL title and the League Cup in play.

Aston Villa got a huge break in the second leg with Club Brugge when the Belgain club got an early red card. Though it took a little while, Villa had a 5-1 aggregate lead by the 57th minute; it would end 6-1.  The blowout did give me a chance to switch over to the El Classico derby that had all the snarl you'd want (though not much scoring).  It ended regular time at 2-2 and eventually went to a penalty shootout, which Real Madrid won, in part because an Atletico attempt was ruled out for a double hit (he slipped and kicked the ball off his other foot).  Arsenal, never in danger, played PSV to a 2-2 draw for a 9-2 aggregate win.

In Europa Cup, Spurs did play better than last week and came away with a 3-2 win on aggregate over AZ Alkmaar.  Even with the better performance, this still felt like a struggle.   They did level things in a tepid first half.  Maddison got them the lead early in the second half but they gave it away on a goofy play in the 63rd minute.  Odobert's second goal at 74 minutes ended up being the difference.  Gotta figure Ange gets to finish the season now.  Meanwhile, Man United kept things interesting at Old Trafford, finally easing into the lead at 50 minutes, then adding to it with two late goals.  The 5-2 aggregate final is misleading.

And in the Europa Conference League, Chelsea bested Copenhagen 1-0 to win their tie 3-1.

Next up:  Arsenal get Real Madrid, Aston Villa face PSG, Spurs get Eintracht Frankfurt, Man United take on Lyon and Chelsea have ALegia Warszawa.

A Lack of Champions League Bona Fides?

So we have a top four and then another five within five points of 4th place.  If we think the EPL is going to get five spots, we'll add 10th place to the list of contenders.  But is the quality there?

Liverpool - EPL numbers say yes but they just got bounced in the round of 16 in this year's CL

Arsenal - They are doing well in the CL right now and look like the second best side in the EPL but they barely managed a draw against struggling Man United

Nottingham Forest - we've been reluctant to see them as a real contender but the win over City changes that

Chelsea - Certainly in the mix but how impressed can you be with a side that barely beats Leicester at home

Man City - Flopped in this year's CL and have no consistency in the EPL

Newcastle - Gritty enough but lots of questionable results

Brighton - Pretty hot right now but will they sustain it?

Aston Villa - Performance in this year's CL says they are legit but they struggle to show it in league play

Bournemouth - hot a while ago but not so much lately

Fulham - see Bournemouth

It's very possible that seven of these teams will be competing in the Europe next fall, with in Champions League, Europa Cup or Europa Conference League.

You Can Only Beat Who You Play

New England is not the best side right now but 2-0 on the road is still a good win.  I only saw the highlights but it looked like the U were the better side.  Took awhile for that to show on the scoreboard.  And it was Baribo, getting his sixth in three matches.  Newcomer Lukic added another in stoppage time. That one was a rocket as you can see here, complete with the call from "the voice of the Union" Dave Leno.  No bandwagon to jump on yet but it is great to see the 3-0-0 start.

Seeing Red?

So our question is whether the Champions League loss will rile Liverpool up for Sunday's Carabao Cup Final with Newcastle or will they be demoralized (and tired)?  They certainly haven't been as dominant lately.  Opta has it 58% Liverpool, 21% Newcastle, 21% draw.  Wait, there has to be a winner.  I guess they're saying 21% chance it goes to a penalty shootout.

The League Cup Final shortens the regular schedule by a two games.  We have four at 11 am on Saturday (daylight saving time, remember).  Each have pros and cons.  Everton - West Ham are close in the standings but the Toffees may be a big favorite at home.  Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest doesn't sound awesome but I'd like to see Forest does after the big win over Man City.  Speaking of City, you can see them host Brighton.  Again, wouldn't expect a close one but this is a chance for Brighton to establish their European credentials.  And there is bottom of table Southampton hosting Wolves.  Actually I can't think of a reason to watch that one.

The feature 1:30 match (on USA, not NBC - they have to cover the Players Championship with the island 17th green) is Bournemouth - Brentford.

Sunday may have the best offering with Arsenal - Chelsea at 9:30.  Of course, this one is on Peacock.  The USA offering at the same time is Fulham - Spurs.  Take a break to watch the Carabao Cup Final at 12:30, then come back for the 3 pm match Leicester - Man United.

The Union host Nashville at Subaru Park on Sunday at 2:25.  That one is double paywalled but with the afternoon start, we may be able to listen in on WPEN.

The spring international break starts on Monday.  Notable matches include the CONCACAF Nations League semi-final between US and Panama (not true that they are playing for possession of the canal) on Thurday at 7 pm.  Europe begins their World Cup qualifying process on Friday.

Gonna miss those Tuesday-Thursday late afternoon matches for a few weeks but they'll be back 4/8-10.

As Michael B points out, the spring break means that the EPL run-in is just about here.  And I trust him on this stuff.