It's Show Time

EPL is done until after Christmas but World Cup starts Sunday.  

We'll Be Third For Christmas

Newcastle - Chelsea seemed like such a promising match up but in practice was mostly a bore.  In fact, some Magpie shithousery at the end took a bit of luster off Newcastle's 1-0 win.  Well, maybe only a little as the win put Chelsea nine points in the rear view mirror.  

Not a miracle but this Pope is about to make a key save

Not much offense on display as Newcastle had three shots on target, Chelsea just two; xG was 1.4 -.45 in favor of the Magpies.  The only goal came on a rocket by Joe Willock from the top of the box.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the "heady" play by Almiron to set it up.  If I remember right, Pope had made a big save on Gallagher just minutes before the goal but for the most part, Newcastle kept Chelsea in check.  

As I mentioned, there was shithousery at the end that was not pretty, including three yellows in stoppage time.  Pope's was run-of-the-mill keeper delay on a goal kick, pretty standard game management stuff late in a 1-0 match.  Longstaff's for kicking the ball away was less cool.  Easily the most shithouseryest was Lascelles interfering with a throw-in as he was warming up on the touch line. Not pleased to see the latter two, especially Lascelles, and hope it doesn't become a permanent feature of the team.

Certainly too soon to be dreaming of Champions League but certainly happy with the performance so far - especially considering they've been without their two supposedly key offensive players Saint-Maximin and Isak.  

Wrong (Again)

So there was no Saturday morning massacre as Man City took on Brentford.  Far from it.  Even though City played the match with the full 11 - one of them being Haaland - they struggled with the visiting Bees.  An early goal by Toney was matched by a first half stoppage time score from Foden.  It stayed 1-1 until the 98th minute when Toney got his second.  Brentford almost added a third after that but they came away with the 2-1 win.  For Newcastle fans, it means that we go into the World Cup break just one point behind City.

We also missed the boat on Tottenham-Leeds, which we dismissed in favor of two other choices but turned out to be the best match of the weekend.  Spurs rallied from a goal deficit three times before finally taking a 4-3 lead in the 83rd minute.  Highlights can be had here.  The win means that Spurs sit 4th in the table despite never seeming to be able to put 90 minutes together.  

My impression about Spurs being a second half team is backed by the numbers.  They have just 10 first half goals compared to 21 in the second half.  Defensively, they've allowed 12 in the first half but just 9 in the second.  Their point total at half time would be a mediocre 20 compared to the 29 at fulltime.  Seems like more than dumb luck; Conte is able to do something at half time - tactical adjustments, subs, team talk.   To be in fourth while not really looking all that great might be comforting and frustrating at the same time.

Amtrak Wifi Sucks

Facing a 6 hour train ride to NH on Sunday I took comfort that I'd be able to stream the end of the Brighton - Aston Villa match, then take in all of the Fulham - Man United fixture.  Wrong buffering breath.  The coverage was choppy and I kept losing the connection.  I made it through the first one to see Villa grab a scrappy and important 2-1 win over Brighton on two goals by Danny Ings.  I gave up the second match so I didn't see Man United's stoppage time goal that denied Fulham a draw against a giant for the second week in a row.  

Pedigree in the Relegation Zone

Going into the World Cup break, the bottom of the table looks like this:

16 - West Ham (14 pts)

17 - Everton (14 pts)

18 - Nottingham Forest (13 pts)

19 - Southampton (12 pts)

20 - Wolves (10 pts)

There are some blue bloods on that list.  Southampton have only spent 5 of the last 50 seasons outside the top tier, West Ham just three.  Everton haven't been outside the first division since the 1953-54 season.  Going back to their start in 1887, I found they've only spent four seasons (1930-31, 1951-52, 52-53 and 53 54) in the second tier.  Certainly there's a long way to go but it would be a relegation of epic proportions. 

Football for Thanksgiving

Just not the kind Americans are used to.  Start at 5 am with Switzerland - Cameroon, 8 am Uruguay - South Korea (this critic's choice), 11 am Portugal - Ghana and closing at 2 pm with Brazil - Serbia. Of course, the whole things starts this Sunday at 11 am with host nation Qatar playing Ecuador.  I haven't checked it all yet but looks like every match will be on Fox or FS1.

The USMNT have their first match at 2 pm on Monday versus Wales.  I was a little surprised to see that 538 has us at 45/26/29 - a 45% chance of win and 29% chance of a draw.  

Speaking of 538, you can see their entire set of predictions here.  Again, a bit surprised to see the USA with a 53% chance of making it out of group stage.  Clearly, I must think more of the Wales side than they do.  

Every World Cup has been won by a European or South American country.  Looking at the 538 numbers, there doesn't seem to be much chance that will change.  The only countries not from those two continents given a measurable chance of winning at 538 are US, Mexico, Morocco and Senegal and those countries are given all of a 1% chance.

After further review, I'm letting my recommendations for the first group stage matches from last week stand:

11/20  Qatar - Ecuador 11 am (it's your only choice)

11/21 US - Wales 2 pm

11/22 Mexico - Poland 11 pm

11/23 Morocco - Croatia 5 am

11/24 Uruguay - South Korea 8 am  (gotta be better than any parade)

Hope to make a post on Black Friday to review the first group stage matches.