Monday, November 28, 2022

Get Your World Cup Match 3 Scenarios Right Here

We continue to watch way too much of this event.  The matches (32 so far) are starting to run together.  


How Many Countries in This Country Are We Going to Get Draws With?

Wales and England done, still need Scotland and Northern Ireland.  Oh well, maybe some other World Cup.

We'd have no points at this point without Matt Turner
Julio Cortez / Associated Press
Never has a team played so well to get a result that was so meaningless.  I know that sounds harsh and I don't mean to diminish the effort.  The 0-0 draw with England was one of the best performances we've seen from the USMNT at this level in a long time (WC quarterfinal vs Germany in 2002?).  The bad news is that with Iran beating Wales earlier in the day, the draw changed nothing; we still need to win on Tuesday or go home.

The match looked like a draw on TV and the stat sheet too.  This was a much better outing than we saw against Wales, although we have to say England didn't look like world beaters.


Head Butt Maneuvers

Frequent 6911 viewing guest Kathy S provided us with simplified language for the beautiful game.  Clarifying the strategic value of a corner kick she said, "so the key is that they get to execute one of those head butt maneuvers."  We all knew exactly what she meant.


Manic Monday (apologies to The Bangles)

Monday's results weren't necessarily according to form and have exponentially complicated the advancement scenarios for Groups E and F.  Japan fell to Costa Rica 0-1, washing out the easy road to the knockout rounds that they had seemingly laid out after the win over Germany.  Likewise, Belgium were upset by Morocco 0-2 (looking old and tired in the process) and instead of relaxing for the third match now see their odds of advancing down to 33%.   A goal by Germany in the 83 minute rescued a 1-1 draw with Spain and boosted their chances from 33% to 67%.  Even Canada got us excited, if only for a little while, with an early goal against Croatia; that didn't last and our northern neighbors got bounced out of the tournament with a 1-4 loss.


It's Over (apologies to Boz Scaggs)

Anthony Taylor is getting reamed on the internet for allegedly cheating South Korea out of a corner at the end of their match with Ghana.  He had called for a minimum of 10 minutes of stoppage time.  At about 10:50, South Korea took a shot that deflected off a Ghanaian and went over the goal line.  Rather than awarding a corner, Taylor blew the whistle for full time.  Cue the outrage.  Even Landon Donovan spoke about the unwritten rule that you allow the team to take that corner.

Except that's not how it works.  It is true that often you'll see the referee allow a corner after the minimum amount of stoppage time has elapsed.  But that's a situation where the referee has added time to the minimum amount to account for additional time wasting that may have occurred in stoppage time.  For example, if a referee says there's a minimum of five minutes stoppage time but has added another 30 seconds, a corner that occurs at 5:15 is before the game is over and will be allowed, even if if that will take the game past 5:30.  A ball that goes across the goal line at 5:31 is after the match is over and the corner shouldn't be given.  This article seemed like one of the more measured assessments of the incident.  The money quote from Dean Ashton:

“Ultimately, you’ve had 12 corners! You’ve had about 55 crosses, if you haven’t scored by that point, I’m sorry the time had elapsed, it was up to the referee and that’s just the way it goes.”

Exactly, the manager goes ballistic and gets himself a suspension for third match over that call?  BFS Officiating Rule #1 - The referee did not cost you the game.


So Many Highlights

Lots of great viewing so far and we could pick any number of goals to highlight.  One is standing out right now, more for its context than anything else, though it was a good strike on its own.  Recall that Argentina lost their opener and faced Mexico in the second game.  That match was scoreless well into the second half and a draw would have left them last in the group and likely needing a win over Poland in the final match to advance.  Enter Lionel Messi.  We make his goal in the 64th minute this week's YouTubeableMoment. It almost looks like he scuffed it just a touch but the placement is perfect.  The tally sent Argentina on their way to a 2-0 win and made their path to the knockout stage less treacherous.


That Is A Violation

You can see the matches from these seats

Speaking of 6911, we continue to flaunt the rules by consuming alcohol - ONSITE - during the contests.  See the photo (right) that somehow eluded the Supreme Committee's censors.  Also note that the viewing audience includes a cat (Ollie) and a dog (Kaya).  No animals were harmed in the viewing of these matches.



Last Day of Group Stage Play

So we are onto the final matches in the group stage. Match 3 scheduling is different in that both matches within a group are at the same time to minimize tomfoolery.  We go back to a 2018 BFS post to explain what happens:


Maybe you can have it all
After 11 days of absolutely no overlap in any of the matches, we now may be faced with some hard choices about what to watch.  That's because the final matches for each group are played simultaneously.  Why?  If matches are not at the same time, teams playing later may know exactly what result would allow both to advance.   But surely pride, etc., etc., would keep teams from doing this.  Except maybe not; I give you Germany and Austria in 1982.

 In some cases the choices won't be too difficult but not always.  And, of course, there's always the Michael B dual screen technology approach, demonstrated in the photo at left.  If that's not an option, we offer our opinion on each group stage finale below.



Okay, so let's dive into the 2022 situation.  The scenarios of who needs what to advance can get quite complicated, sometimes involving goal differentials or even the number of yellow cards a team got in group stage.  ESPN has the very detailed explanation here.  We offer highlights and match recommendations below. 

Group A

Netherlands - in with a win or draw versus Qatar or with a Senegal loss to Ecuador
Ecuador - in with a win or draw over Senegal
Senegal - in with win over Ecuador
Qatar - buh-bye

Recommendation:  Ecuador - Senegal at 10 am on Tuesday

Group B
England - in unless they lose to Wales by more than six goals
Iran - in with win over US; draw is good enough if Wales don't beat England
US - in with win over Iran
Wales - in with miracle six goal win over England AND US-Iran draw

Recommendation: Iran - US at 2 pm on Tuesday

Group C
Not enough space to fully review the scenarios.

Poland - in with win or draw versus Argentina; could advance with a loss but complicated
Argentina - in with win over Poland; could advance with draw if Mexico win or draw but tiebreakers could be involved
Saudi Arabia - in with win over Mexico; could advance with draw but complicated
Mexico - in with four-goal win over Saudi Arabia; anything else is complicated

Recommendation: Set up two TV or computer screens at 2 pm on Wednesday

Group D

France - already in
Australia - in with win over Denmark; also in with draw IF Tunisia don't beat France
Denmark - must beat Australia and hope Tunisia lose or draw with France; could still advance even if Tunisia win but would depend on tiebreakers
Tunisia - must beat France and have Australia/Denmark draw; could advance even if Denmark win but  it's complicated

Note that the sixth tiebreaker - fair play points - could come into play in this group.  

Recommendation: Australia - Denmark Wednesday at 10 am

Group E

Spain - in with win or draw over Japan; could advance with loss but it's complicated
Japan - in with win over Spain; can advance with draw but it's complicated
Costa Rica - in with win over Germany; can advance with draw but it's complicated
Germany - must beat Costa Rica AND have Japan lose to Spain; there are some additional possibilities but they are complicated

Recommendation: Costa Rica - Germany Thursday at 2 pm (warning: could be a blow-out)

Group F

Croatia - in with win or draw over Belgium; can advance with loss with certain tie breakers
Morocco -  in with win or draw over Canada; can even advance with loss but it's complicated
Belgium - in with win over Croatia; can advance with draw if Canada beat Morocco but it's complicated
Canada - heading north for the winter

Recommendation: Croatia - Belgium Thursday at 10 am

Group G

Brazil - in
Switzerland - in with win over Serbia; in with draw and Cameroon loss or draw; still could advance with loss and Cameroon win but it's complicated 
Cameroon - in with win over Brazil AND Switzerland loss and some other stuff too
Serbia - in with win over Switzerland AND Brazil win; could advance with win and Cameroon win but requires other stuff too

Recommendation: Serbia - Switzerland Friday at 2 pm


Group H

Portugal - in 
Ghana - in with win over Uruguay; draw and Portugal win or draw also good enough; draw and South Korea win requires a bunch of other things
Uruguay - in with win over Ghana
South Korea - in with win over Portugal AND Uruguay win/draw AND a bunch of other things

Recommendation:  Ghana - Uruguay Friday at 10 am


At least there are no more 5 am matches.







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