The Great Escape

Musical Accompaniment for this post

That was a nerve wracking two hours on Sunday.  But things turned out pretty well for the clubs near and dear to BFS and its loyal readers.  Most especially Aston Villa.


One Kick Away from Disaster

Aston Villa did indeed pull off the Great Escape, managing a 1-1 draw with West Ham while Watford lost 2-3 to Arsenal.  The draw fortunately made Bournemouth's 3-1 win over Everton irrelevant.  And, at no point during the proceedings did Villa drop into the bottom three in the live table.  But their situation was so precarious, that for most of the two hours, merely surrendering a goal to West Ham would have seen them in the relegation zone.  Here's the timeline with Villa's cushion:

11:00 - No cushion as all three matches were tied
11:05 - One goal cushion as Watford are 0-1 to Arsenal but Bournemouth level with Everton
11:13 - The cushion is gone as Bournemouth take a 1-0 lead on Everton
11:41 - A three goal cushion as Everton level with Bournemouth and Watford are down 1-3
11:46 - Back to zero as Bournemouth score in stoppage time to lead 2-1 at halftime
12:43 - A one goal cushion as Jack Grealish puts Villa up 1-0
12:44 - Back to zero when Yarmolenko scores for West Ham to make the score 1-1
12:54 - Final whistle and Aston Villa survive

Back for another year in the Premier League

By my count that's about 14 minutes over the course of the two hours during which Villa were not hanging on by a thread.  And even at the final whistle, did you notice that Villa manager Dean Smith told his charges not to celebrate?  See there was still stoppage time at the Emirates and though Watford were down 2-3, two late goals from the Hornets and a win over Arsenal would have snatched the last safe spot.  Stranger things have happened this season, right?  But they didn't and the celebration began in earnest.

Grealish's goal is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Maybe a bit of a mistake from Fabianski but Grealish did nice work to create the opening and the shot.  Yarmolenko's goal, barely a minute after, was an unlucky deflection that meant we'd have to spend the rest of the match on the edge of our seats.  Dennis points out that the percentage chance for Aston Villa relegation since the restart went as follows: 71,73,74,75,77,86,38,0.

And we must return to the first match of the restart, the one in which goal-line technology failed to note that Sheffield United had indeed put the ball past the goal line against Aston Villa.  We wondered at the time if the 0-0 draw instead of an 0-1 loss would have any consequences.  It did.  Villa edged Bournemouth by a single point in the standings; take away that point and Bournemouth finish 17th on goal differential.  There is some noise that the Bournemouth board is considering legal action.  We note the following from the IFAB Laws of the Game (item 4. in the section entitled Video Assistant Referee protocol):

Match validity

In principle, a match is not invalidated because of:

• malfunction(s) of the VAR technology (as for goal line technology (GLT))
• wrong decision(s) involving the VAR (as the VAR is a match official)
• decision(s) not to review an incident
• review(s) of a non-reviewable situation/decision

Seems unlikely.


Champions League Spots Go To Man United and Chelsea

The beginning of the end for Leicester's CL hopes

Like the relegation scrap, the ultimate fortunes of the Champions League contenders hung in the balance for much of the time too.  Sort of.  Chelsea needed most of the first half to secure their berth.  A free kick by Mason Mount in the first minute of stoppage time followed by this amazing goal from Olivier Giroud two minutes later sent Chelsea on their way.  Things were a little tighter at King Power as Leicester and Man United went into the 71st minute level at 0-0.  While that result would have been enough to send the Red Devils into the Champions League, I'm guessing Jeff H and other United fans breathed a sigh of relief as Anthony Martial was brought down in the box and Bruno Fernandes converted the PK.  A second stoppage time goal made the final 2-0.

That Man United and Chelsea join Liverpool and Man City as the EPL Champions League representatives is hardly a surprise.  But it was great theater for us neutrals to watch it play out.


Thursdays in Baku

With Wolves in trouble at Chelsea, all Tottenham needed was a draw at Crystal Palace to grab 6th place and a spot in the Europa League.  Harry Kane got Spurs off to good start with a goal in the 13th minute; Palace leveled things early in the second half.  Another goal from the Eagles would have knocked Spurs down to 7th but Tottenham held on for the draw and the berth.  As we've noted, it is a mixed blessing.  Participation in Europa League means Thursday evening matches in exotic places on the continent like Baku, Azerbaijan as well a lot of Sunday EPL matches, guaranteed to tax a squad over the course of a long season.  Still, we suspect that ultimately Michael B and Spurs fans prefer the 6th place finish to, say, coming in behind Arsenal.

Note that Wolves still have two possible routes to European competition.  They could still win this year's edition of Europa League which would get them a Champions League spot.  Or, Chelsea could win the FA Cup, which would then make 7th place good enough for next year's Europa competition.


A Footnote on Newcastle

They lost 1-3 to Liverpool.  Didn't see it but the stats seem to support a result in that range.  This wasn't a crucial match in any respect as most of the records Liverpool had been chasing were out of reach and Newcastle were going to finish 13th or 14th anyway (Palace draw meant it was 13th). 

Now comes the important stuff.  Is the takeover going to happen?  What personnel changes will we see if it does happen?  If it doesn't happen?  We will be unpacking the season in more detail in a few weeks but I suspect that, under the microscope, it won't look as good as it appeared.  I sense there was a lot of luck involved here and if so, we need some serious upgrading or 2020/21 will be another season spent fighting relegation.


In Praise of the EPL

In a time of 60-game MLB seasons, rejiggered NBA and NHL competition and who knows what from the NFL, we take a minute to laud the efforts of the EPL to offer an unabridged season offering excitement down to the final whistle.  It wasn't a gimmicky alternative and I think it showed in the intensity of the players' efforts.  Ya done good.


Union Continue with Smoke and Mirrors

Honestly, if 538 metrics are to be believed, the Union should have been out of the MLS Is Back Tournament long ago.  Yet once again on Monday night, there they were grabbing a 1-0 win from the New England Revolution.  Most of the regular stats are pretty close but expected goals say the Union might have stolen this one.  Certainly it seemed New England were the more attacking side in the second half.  And then Sergio Santos, who had missed easier chances earlier in the evening, scored on this difficult shot, against the run-of-play.  The win moves them into the quarterfinals against Sporting KC.


There Is Still Stuff to Watch

Though we will miss the daily EPL action, you can find plenty to keep you occupied.  Sure it's an artificial competition but the MLS Is Back Tournament offers quarterfinal matches from Thursday to Saturday.  The Union are first on that list, facing Sporting KC Thursday night at 8 pm on ESPN.  Friday has Orlando vs LAFC at 7:30 on FS1.  There are two on Saturday - San Jose - Minnesota at 8 pm on ESPN2  and NYCFC vs Portland at 10:30 on FS1.  Sem-finals are Wednesday (FS1) and Thursday (ESPN2) evenings at 8 pm.  Final is Tuesday 8/11.

Though you need to stream it, Saturday is the FA Cup Final featuring Chelsea and Arsenal.  Match is at 12:30 but is only available on ESPN+.  Chelsea are arguably the better side but Arsenal might have more to play for. 

And Champions League action is coming back soon.   The round of 16 matches wrap up on 8/7-8.  Single elimination (as opposed to two-legged) quarterfinals are offered up, one a day, 8/12-15.  Semis are 8/18 and the final is 8/23.

Plenty to check out, unless you're too busy watching baseball.

We Got Your Championship Sunday Scenarios Right Here

Another week of unexpected, no, improbable, no, miraculous results has set the stage for an exciting Championship Sunday.  By my count, six of the ten fixtures have implications for Champions League, Europa League and relegation.  The bad news of course, is that all the matches are played simultaneously at 11 am on Sunday.  This makes viewing somewhat tricky.  Hopefully, we can help sort out the best viewing for you based on your priorities.  We'll start at the bottom.


Aston Villa No Longer Need Syzygy to Survive

syzygy

[ siz-i-jee ]

noun, plural syz·y·gies.

Astronomy. an alignment of three celestial objects, as the sun, the earth, and either the moon or a planet:

Not to be confused with Szczesny, who used to play keeper for Arsenal.

Trezeguet's goal lifted Aston Villa out of the drop zone

This was as close to a perfect week of results for Aston Villa as you could get. On Friday, West Ham took care of Watford 3-1.  On Sunday, Southampton slipped past Bournemouth 2-0.  Tuesday was a dream come true as first Man City pounded Watford 4-0, erasing the Hornets' goal differential advantage in one fell swoop.  Then, Aston Villa stunned Arsenal 1-0, snatching three points that were never seriously in the mix.  Dennis's reaction is captured here.  The combination of results lifted Villa out of the relegation zone and opened up multiple scenarios that might allow them to stay up; the biggest difference is that there are situations in which they can stay up with a draw or even a loss at West Ham.  

On Sunday, Aston Villa are at West Ham, Watford are at Arsenal and Bournemouth travel to Everton.  All the scenarios are presented below:

Aston Villa	Watford	Bournemouth	Survivor
W	W/D/L	W/D/L	AVL, unless WAT win by at least 2 more goals than AVL
D	D/L	W/D/L	Villa
D	W	W/D/L	Watford
L	L	W	Bournemouth
L	W/D	W/D/L	Watford
L	L	L	AVL, unless AVL lose by at least 2 more goals than WAT

At 538, the associated percentages for staying up are Aston Villa 62%, Watford 34% and Bournemouth 5%.  The weird thing is you can't even say Villa control their destiny because even a win might not be enough if Watford beat Arsenal by two more goals than Villa beat West Ham.  It's also not quite as simple as saying just do better than whatever Watford does because that leaves a chance for Bournemouth to sneak in. So all three matches could matter.

Uh, Here, You Take It

Ol' Gunner says Pogba should have taken it in the "mush"
but it's not clear that's where the ball would have hit him

For the second time this month, all the principals in the chase for Champions League berths dropped points at a critical moment.  Not a complete surprise that Tottenham bested Leicester 3-0, except maybe for the ease with which Spurs dispatched the Foxes.  Chelsea faced long odds playing at Anfield on the day that Liverpool would be celebrating their EPL title so the 3-5 loss wasn't out of the blue, so to speak. A fun match to watch (see below).  But we might have expected more from Man United at home to West Ham.  They fell behind on a late first half PK, which occurred when Paul Pogba was apparently unwilling to sacrifice his face for the cause.  Watching the play here (should open at 5:48), you can understand that hands in front of the face might be a natural reaction.  Still, he is getting no slack from anyone. And further examination of the picture does show the ball was likely going to hit the top of his head, not his face.

When the dust settled, that draw was enough to move Man United to third place based on goal differential.  Leicester are leaking oil badly and Chelsea are sitting pretty because Man United play Leicester on the final day, meaning somebody's dropping points.  Chelsea do have a tough opponent in Wolves but at least will be playing at home.  Here are the Champions League scenarios:

Man United	Chelsea	CL Berths
W	W/D/L	MUN and CHE
D	W/D	MUN and CHE
D	L	MUN and Leicester
L	L	MUN and Leicester
L	W/D	Chelsea and Leicester

At 538, the odds shake out as Chelsea 89%, Man United 76% and Leicester 35%.  Or if you prefer, Chelsea/Man United 65%, Man United/Leicester 11% and Chelsea/Leicester 24%.  Because of the Leicester Man United fixture, each team does in fact control their destiny.  Win and you are in.


Miss Congeniality

Otherwise known as Europa League.  At the moment only 5th and 6th are guaranteed spots; 7th place will only be good enough if Chelsea win the FA Cup.  Fortunately, 6th and 7th can go to only two clubs - Wolves or Spurs.  Wolves have Chelsea at Stamford Bridge so that's not easy.  Tottenham play Crystal Palace away, which is slightly better odds.  But Spurs trail by a point.  Here are the scenarios:

Spurs	Wolves	6th Place
W/D/L	W	Wolves
L	D/L	Wolves
W	D/L	Spurs
D	D	Wolves
D	L	Spurs

Add 'em up and 538 says 53% chance for Wolves, 47% chance for Spurs.  Wolves do control their fate; win and 6th is theirs.


CPFC

Those initials usually stand for Crystal Palace Football Club. We respectfully request they now stand for Christian Pulisic Fan Club.  The American entered the match with Liverpool in the 59th minute with Chelsea down 1-4.  Within 14 minutes the score was 3-4 as Pulisic had contributed an assist and goal, both of the highest quality.  We make it a combo YouTubeableMoment (scroll down for videos of the assist and the goal).  On the assist, check out Pulisic's willingness to go right at the Liverpool defenders; BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S has pointed this out to me as something we haven't seen a lot of from American players.  For the goal, check out his composure as he settles, takes a couple of calm touches and blisters the shot.  Number 22 in your program but a #10 in your heart?


We Watch So You Don't Have To

Newcastle drew 0-0 with Brighton.  Nothing happened.


Wid or Wid Out?

The discussion continues on enhanced or natural sound when watching EPL or other matches.  BFS Culinary Consultant Laura O sends us the following links on the subject:

This one is more about the actual process but does discuss the debate

This one is mostly about the debate

I continue to take the lazy route.  If I have to do something extra to get natural sound, it's not happening.  If it's an easy choice at the start, which only happens while watching on NBC Gold, I'm probably 50/50.


Once A Keeper

Goalie Emeritus Don P (he was the keeper at Dickinson College for their first ever soccer team or so the legend goes - thus far we have only verified the parts of that statement that appear in bold) sends along this podcast about the loneliness and other psychological pressures on keepers as described by Arsenal legend Bob Wilson.  The toughness it breeds may explain why Don was 10-time Defensive Player of the Year in Monday Night Basketball (again, we can verify the bolded part of that statement).


Union Finish Second

A 1-1 draw with Orlando means the Union take second in Group A.  A dvr mishap (probably related to the related to me setting the recording on ESPN while it still thought boxing was scheduled) meant I did not see the match.  Heard there were some good scoring opportunities and some more great work by Andre Blake.  They might not have advanced out of group stage without his heroics.  Their Round of 16 knock out opponent is New England.  That's Saturday night at 10:30 on ESPN2.  Hopefully I can correctly set the dvr this time.


Soccer on Golf Channel

As we noted at the beginning, every match this Sunday starts at 11.  NBC used to call on every affiliated station to ensure live telecasts of every match.  This year they are "cheating" by using Peacock (and NBC Gold) to achieve blanket coverage.  Fortunately, five of the six key contests are on TV so fair play to the schedulers there.

For those following the Champions League drama, you have two to take in:
 - Leicester vs Man United on NBC
 - Chelsea vs Wolves on USA

For the Miss Congeniality Europa League fans you also have two to follow:
- Chelsea vs Wolves on USA
- Crystal Palace vs Spurs on Peacock or NBC Gold

The relegation crowd (which includes me and Dennis) will somehow try to follow three:
- West Ham vs Aston Villa on NBCSN
- Arsenal vs Watford on Golf Channel (not a typo)
- Everton vs Bournemouth on CNBC

In theory, you could try to watch on NBC Gold with the scores turned off and take in each match separately.  My sense though is that it will be impossible for spoiler alerts not to creep in.  Dennis and I have already figured out how we'll jointly watch at least Aston Villa and Watford simultaneously.

If you can only take in one and your rooting interests are neutral, my recommendation would be the Leicester - Man United contest.  But don't underestimate how compelling it can be to watch a team threatened with relegation try to survive.

I'm gonna miss this when it's over.

Normalcy?

Some semblance of order was restored in Week 36.

The three main contenders for the two open Champions League spots took care of business, though not necessarily convincingly.  Chelsea dominated but still barely slipped past Norwich 1-0 on a sublime cross from Pulisic to Giroud.  Because we shamelessly promote the best American footballer right now, the play is this week's
 YouTubeableMoment.  Leicester looked better than in recent weeks and took the measure of Sheffield United 2-0.

Wear a smaller shoe next time

And Man United eventually finished off Crystal Palace 2-0 but not before some second half dramatics.  Rashford gave the Red Devils a 1-0 with a first half stoppage time goal but Jordan Ayew had appeared to level things early in the second half before it was overturned by VAR for offside.  I'm not saying it was a close call or anything but if Ayew had been wearing a size 8 boot instead of size 9, I think he's onside.  So no change in the order of things, except Chelsea lose one on goal differential; they're so far behind Leicester and Man United on that score I doubt it matters.  Plus they have one point in the table on both of those teams so they still control their destiny.  These results also closed the door on Champions League hopes for anybody else.


Mid-table Anonymity

Forget which announcer used that phrase but it's definitely a factor in these matches during the run-in.  Just how motivated are sides that are safe from relegation but with no chance of Champions League or Europa League?  Actually, they mostly acquitted themselves well.  Newcastle lost to Tottenham 1-3 but at least this was a 90-minute effort from the Magpies.  Mixed feelings for Spurs as despite the three points, results elsewhere mean they can finish no higher than 6th, as in no Champions League for you.

Burnley - Wolves proved to be just as hard-fought as expected.  Jiminez had appeared to give the Wolves a lifeline with an incredible strike in the 76th minute.  But shortly after Chris Wood missed an easy chance to level, Doherty was called for handling in the box (marginal call IMHO) and Wood converted the PK to sink Wolves CL hopes. 

Slumped shoulders from Grealish say it all after Walcott
levelled the match late

Everton putzed around for most of their match with Aston Villa, but then so did Aston Villa.  Neither team registered a shot on goal through 72 minutes.  Then Villa's Ngoyo barely got his extended leg on a cross into the box to put them up 1-0.  Unfortunately, this was enough to rouse Everton from their deck chairs and they looked mildly interested from then on.  Theo Walcott managed a looping header over Reina that barely made it across the line in the 87th minute to deny Aston Villa all three points.  The draw leaves some hope but three points would have made the road a little easier.

Arsenal, despite being outstatted by Liverpool, managed to keep their Europa League chances alive with an improbable 2-1 win over the champions-elect.  By outstatted I mean 24-3 on shots, 8-2 for shots on target, 69-31 on possession and 3-1 on expected goals.  The loss means Liverpool will not break 100 points for the season.


Scenarios

At the bottom, Aston Villa survival scenarios are getting convoluted.  There is a way they could stay up with just a win over West Ham on the final day of the season.  For that to happen, Watford must 1) lose all three remaining matches (West Ham, Man City, and Arsenal) and 2) must lose by at least a combined -5 goals while 3) Villa must beat West Ham by more than they lose to Arsenal.  Two of those things are not out of the question.  Stealing a point from Arsenal would take the goal differential issues out, simplifying the table to 1) Watford lose all three and 2) Aston Villa beat West Ham.  Oh, and Bournemouth can't be mucking things up by getting points against Southampton and Everton (see Mid-table Anonymity above).

At the top, Chelsea are in with two wins, except they play Liverpool and Wolves.  On balance, that sounds like a loss and win or maybe a draw and a win for 66 or 67 points.  Man United play West Ham and Leicester; two wins or maybe a win and a draw for 68 or 66 points.  Leicester play Spurs then Man United; a draw and a loss or maybe two draws for  63 or 64 points.  Right now, Leicester look like odd man out.

Based on what I'm reading, the Champions League will not reach down to 5th place should a top four finisher win this year's Champions League or Europa League.  That is, should Man City or Chelsea, win this year's CL, it doesn't help anybody who finished 5th or lower.  Chelsea are pretty much toast anyway, down 0-3 to Bayern heading to Germany for the second leg of that Round of 16 match up.  City are up 2-1 coming home to the Etihad against Real Madrid so they might make it.  In Europa League action, both Man United and Wolves have legitimate hopes of reaching the quarters or beyond.  But if Man United were to finish say, 4th in EPL, and win the Europa League, as I read the rules, that does not mean 5th place now gets a Champions League spot.  Clear as mud right?

Europa League rules say 5th place, the EFL Cup winner and the FA Cup winner get slots for EPL teams.  Unlike Champions League, they do reach down to lower positions in the table if either Cup winner is in the top five.  Man City have already won the EFL Cup, so 6th place will be good enough this year.  Should a team other than Arsenal win the FA Cup, that would open up 7th place.  But that's the extent of how far down they'll reach.  Say Man United win this year's Europa League and qualify for next year's Champions League; they won't reach down to 8th place for another Europa League team.  The only way you can finish lower than 7th and get a Europa League berth is to win the EFL or FA Cups. 

There'll be a test on this next week.


Union Advance

Not that I was able to watch it, not having access to TUHD.  I only saw the highlights of the 2-1 win over Miami, a victory that moves them on to the knockout rounds in the MLS Is Back Tournament.  The stats say the Union may have stolen this one.  Shots differential wasn't too bad but possession was 55-45 and expected goals was 1.3-.6.  Also, VAR overturned a handling call against the Union and there was a shot that rattled off the cross bar.

On the other hand, there was a great strike from Wagner for the first goal and a wonderful piece of counterattacking for the second from Cats-purr shuh-BILL-koh.  Watch that goal here.  Can I draw your attention to the wonderful work of Monteiro, who didn't touch the ball at all in this sequence but was a critical factor in its creation. 


FA Cup Weekend

With the FA Cup semis this weekend, match Week 37 is spread out from Saturday to Wednesday.  There are several that you may want to skip.  I would not however pass on Spurs - Leicester Sunday at 11 am on NBCSN.  Earlier, 538 had this as much closer but now they see the Foxes as favorites; I'm still thinking draw here.  At Relegation Central, we'll probably check in on Bournemouth - Southampton at 9 am Sunday just to make sure the Cherries don't get more than a point.

Wolves - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3:15 could be a fun watch.  Relegation Central will be focused in on Tuesday to watch Man City hopefully ruin Watford's goal differential at 1 pm and then hopefully see Aston Villa nick a point from Arsenal at 3:15. 

Wednesday has two important matches with Champions League implications.  Man United host West Ham at 1 and Chelsea are at Liverpool at 3:15.  At 538 they see easy win for Man United but Chelsea are the decided underdogs in their contest.

With respect to the FA Cup, you are SOL (short on luck) for viewing unless you have ESPN+.  Saturday is Arsenal - Man City at 2:45 and Sunday has Man United - Chelsea at 1 pm.  Both matches are at Wembley. 

And if you're not doing anything at 8 pm on Monday, you can see the Union - Orlando play to see who wins Group A in the MLS Is Back Tournament.  If you care.  This one is on TSN so at least I can see it.   Actually, Dennis has seen a few of the other matches and says the quality has been pretty good, if sweaty. 

And by next Sunday, the EPL will be done.  Fortunately, we will have some Champions League stuff to make August bearable.

Next Stop, the Twilight Zone

A strange few days on and off the pitch. Fasten your seat belts as the EPL enters stoppage time...in the Twilight zone.

Guardiola reacts to the Court of Arbitration for Sport
decision (dramatization)

Perhaps the biggest EPL result of the week came out of Lausanne, which if you check the maps is not in England but Switzerland. This is the headquarters for the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which decided that UEFA's two-year Champions League ban of Man City was not justified by the evidence.  The Court did conclude that City's cooperation was less than ideal and fined them £10 million for that.  Chicken feed compared to a CL ban. The decision unsettles the tranquility that had been developing in the chase for those CL slots.  Where once Chelsea, Man United and Leicester had looked like locks, Man City's reentrance means that only two of those three can make it.

And all three made hash of their weekend, just as this blogger predicted.  Right.  I believe the exact words were:

Chelsea (at Sheffield Saturday 12:30 NBC), Leicester (at Bournemouth Sunday 2 pm NBCSN) and Man United (hosting Southampton Monday 3 pm) are good bets to take all three points in their matches. 

Even the blind squirrel can be nutty sometimes.

Chelsea started things off Saturday with an 0-3 loss to Sheffield.  Not totally out of left field but based on recent form, a highly unlikely result.  Even down 0-2 you had some sense the Blues might pull out at least a draw until McGoldrick's second at 77 minutes put that idea to rest.

On Sunday things got really goofy.  Bournemouth, who hadn't won a match since February 1, dutifully fell behind Leicester on a Jamie Vardy goal and though the Foxes didn't look spectacular, you felt there was no way back into the match for the Cherries.  In the 66th minute, Wilfred Ndidi (Who did?  Indeed he did.) tripped Callum Wilson in the box and Stanislaus converted the PK.  Barely a minute later, Solanke slipped a second one past Schmeichel for the lead.  That carried additional consequences as Leicester's Caglar Soyuncu kicked at Callum Wilson inside the net as he was retrieving the ball, earning a straight red for serious foul play (and for being stupid according to BFS Referee Consultant Graham Robb).  Down a man, Leicester surrendered two more, meaning they dropped three points and hurt their goal differential by three.  Nice work.

The trifecta was completed on Monday as Southampton refused to go quietly into the night against Man United.  In fact, they took the early lead.  Goals by Rashford and Martial quickly restored the natural order of things but the Red Devils failed to put Southampton away.  I texted Jeff H late in the match "better not get complacent here" but to no avail.  Substitute Michael Obafemi took delivery on a corner in the 96th minute (stoppage time added to stoppage time) to snatch a draw. Sorry Jeff, we're making it the YouTubeableMoment.

Sixth through eighth did manage to get three points each but even with the stumbles at the top, they are looking at long odds.  Wolves found their mojo in a 3-0 win over Everton, who look like they are playing in flip flops.  Sheffield got their three against Chelsea and Tottenham won a highly entertaining North London derby 2-1 on a late header by Aldervirile Eldervereld Altervidal Toby.  Lacazette had given the Gunners an early lead but Son took it right back within three minutes.  Great up-and-down action for the neutrals.

The revised odds for Champions League berths at 538 now have Chelsea at 76%, Man United at 70%, Leicester at 49% and Wolves at 4%.  I like Man United's odds a little better given that they play Crystal Palace, West Ham and Leicester while Chelsea still have Liverpool and Wolves, in addition to Norwich.  Leicester have a tough run-in with Sheffield United, Tottenham and Man United.  Well, we can thank the CAS for adding some spice to these last two weeks.


Two Wrongs Don't Make a Right

But in this case they probably evened out.  For reasons not clear to most viewers, VAR Jonathan Moss overturned two of Martin Atkinson's calls in Aston Villa's 2-0 life-saving win over Crystal Palace.  Early on, Moss ruled that Mamadou Sakho had handled the ball into the net.  Check out the play here; actually it looks to me like it comes off his back.  Early in the second half, Atkinson awarded Villa a PK for a foul on Jack Grealish.  You can see the incident here.  Looks pretty clear that van Aanholt landed on Grealish's foot, which is a foul.  Grealish's reaction is of course silly but should be irrelevant to the call.  Moss overturned that one too.  In both instances, Moss violated the BFS 30-second VAR Rule; if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide if the call was incorrect, by definition it is not a clear and obvious error.  Why the EPL doesn't require the referee to go to the monitor himself to see if he saw what he thought he saw is beyond me.  Luckily this time, the consequences evened out.

Deeney after the first of two PKs
(Image: Marc Aspland NMCPool)

The victory gives Villa just enough hope of staying up.  It was absolutely necessary after Norwich (0-4 loss to West Ham) and Newcastle (1-2 loss to Watford) failed to offer any help on Saturday.  The Magpie loss was particularly galling on a number of fronts.  After a decent first half in which they looked interested, Newcastle folded up shop in the second half.  Both Hornet goals were PKs after untidy challenges by Ritchie and Manquillo.  The loss was fully deserved.

Norwich is done but the next four sides all got three points over the weekend.  You'd say it was status quo, except that with so few matches left, the failure of West Ham and Watford to drop points is a problem.  Aston Villa need at least five points from the final three matches versus Everton, Arsenal and West Ham.  If Friday's West Ham-Watford fixture ends in a draw, they'll need six. 


Two Things I'll Bet You Didn't Know About Financial Fair Play Regulations

Basically, FFP requires you to keep salaries below a specified cap or face a transfer embargo.  You probably knew that.  But did you know that the salaries of players under 21 years old do not count against the cap?  Thanks to Football Manager, I was fully aware of that exception and have taken advantage of it often to keep Forest Green under the cap.  However, I assumed that the exemption applied for the entire season.  Wrong.  When the player turns 21 [I mean 22], his salary immediately goes against the cap.  I recently discovered this when we suddenly went from being okay to facing an embargo even though I hadn't made a personnel move.  Comparing earlier points in time, I could see the only difference was the player who turned 21 [22] was no longer exempt.  FM is great way to learn the inner workings of an EPL club.


The Schedule Revisited

With the shake up caused by recent events, let's review the mid-week fixtures.  Chelsea (vs Norwich on Tuesday) and Man United (Crystal Palace on Thursday) look good for three points.  Except I said the same thing on Friday.  Though 538 thinks Leicester should be fine against Sheffield United on Thursday, that looks like a tough match to me.

As for the chase pack, Wolves have to go to Turf Moor to face Burnley.  A good home team vs a good road team; doesn't seem like an easy one for Wolves.  Spurs have Newcastle at St. James' Park on Wednesday; I might have seen Newcastle nicking a point here but after the way they mailed in the second half at Watford, that seems unlikely.  And Sheffield face Leicester so they have their work cut out for them.

The relegation match of the week is West Ham vs Watford on Friday.  A winner there is going to be safe.  Even a draw will make it difficult for Aston Villa and Bournemouth.  Villa get Everton at Goodison Park which normally sounds bad but the Toffees have been spotty lately.  Bournemouth get Man City at home; good luck with that.

A heads up for Wednesday.  All four matches will be available only on NBC's new streaming service - Peacock. Some details are available here.  I think I'm getting old.  This just seems annoying.  Why do I need another streaming service to watch soccer?  And get off my lawn.

Surfeit of Football

Not necessarily great football but lots of it.


MLS Is Black (Lives Matter) Tournament

Familiar names but for the wrong reason

For the second time this summer an unexpected but powerful statement by players is the YouTubeableMoment of the week.  For their first match in the MLS Is Back tournament (Thursday morning) Philadelphia Union players replaced their own names with those of Black men, women, boys and girls killed by police.  Their jerseys also included the message "One name, too many."  Apparently it was done without the league's knowledge, based on this from Jim Curtin:

The idea today was action over permission; I hope the league understands that.

What's the old expression, better to ask for forgiveness than permission?

And check out this article from mlssoccer.com:

        THE UNION ARE ALL OF US

I highly doubt you’re an MLS neutral if you’re getting this newsletter but if you were starting from scratch and looking for a team to support in this tournament, I’m wondering if there’s a more likable team than Philadelphia. That’s not to say [whatever your favorite team is] isn’t great. They are. You’re great, too. Don’t get in my mentions about this you winner, you. But this Union team is for the people.

They aren’t one of the league’s big spenders. They don’t necessarily have a superstar. They do have Ilsinho, who hates you even though you love him. They’re outspoken. They’re managed by Jim Curtin, whose eyes radiate intelligence and kindness. They’ve got Jose Martinez, a man who has never once skipped leg day. They have Andre Blake, a wall. And they have whatever DOOP is and a weird snake mascot.

The people’s champ must be everything the people can’t be while still reflecting the flaws of the people. Yesterday we saw Ilsinho get tired at about minute 25 and leave in the 58th because Ilsinho is all of us right now. We saw Jose Martinez get told by his team not to foul his man several times, ignore the fact he was told not to foul his man several times and then slap his man’s arm away before fouling him because Jose Martinez is all of us right now. And then we saw the outspoken and charismatic Alejandro Bedoya score the winner and Blake make seven saves to help their team win a game they probably should have lost, which is what all of us want to be right now.

The team is fun, got three points against the toughest team in their group and–especially if Blake continues to ball–they have a great chance to go deep in this tournament. I kind of hope they do. You know. For the people.

Yeah, that's my team.  And Kevin Durant is a part owner.  I don't think it's a coincidence.


Magpies in the Middle

Soon to be striker Shelvey levels things

With not much to play for now, Newcastle contributed one of the better matches but also one of the biggest stinkers of the week.  On Sunday they twice rallied from a goal down to draw West Ham 2-2; good back and forth and generally entertaining.  Shelvey rescued the draw with his 6th goal of the season, still the team leader in EPL action.

Wednesday's match at the Etihad?  Not so much.  Steve Bruce tried to get clever with the line-up, likely necessitated by the crowded schedule.  The 4-4-2 featured Krafth as a center back, Schar in midfield, and Shelvey as one of the strikers (hey team leader in goals, right?).  No Almiron, no Saint-Maximin.  The result was predictable.  Down 0-2 in 20 minutes, the Magpies were never in this one as they fell 0-5 to a clearly superior Man City side.  The good news is that with City's likely ban and Newcastle drifting in mid-table, the match had pretty much zero implications.


Aston Villa Hanging By A Thread

Though they were not awful, the week did not go well for the Villans.  They were solid in an 0-2 loss at Liverpool but mediocre in an 0-3 loss at home to Man United.  The other problem was they got inconsistent help from others.  Chelsea did beat Watford 3-0 and Burnley "upset" West Ham 1-0, taking points away from the key rivals.  On the other hand, Newcastle could only draw with West Ham and even a point for the Hammers hurt Aston Villa.  And though Norwich did take an early lead against Watford, the Canaries eventually fell 1-2 on a great bicycle kick from Danny Welbeck (remember him?). The goal, seen here, would have been the week's YouTubeableMoment most weeks.

A critical match for Aston Villa's hopes, we got video of Dennis watching.  From left to right - Norwich take early lead, Watford level the match, Welbeck gets game winner with bicycle kick.



The scenarios that keep Aston Villa up are few and improbable.  They are also complicated by the fact that Watford and West Ham play each other in Week 36.  My understanding is that there is no possibility that both could come away from that fixture with no points.  Any scenarios that work pretty much require that this weekend Watford lose to Newcastle and West Ham lose to Norwich.  As I said to Dennis, depending on Newcastle and Norwich is no way to go through life.  Norwich, Bournemouth and Aston Villa are looking like locks to go down.


Growing Clarity at the Top Too

An American in London - Pulisic has 3 goals in 5 games

Wolves' chances took it on the chin with consecutive losses to Arsenal (0-2) and Sheffield United (0-1).  That second one was particularly cruel, coming on a header in the final seconds.  Their chances of making CL dropped to 4%.  Leicester got an easy 3-0 win over Crystal Palace and snatched a late 1-1 draw against a 10-man Arsenal.  Those four points put them in much better shape.  Surging Man United (wins over Bournemouth and Aston Villa) and steady Chelsea (wins over Watford and Crystal Palace) look solid too.  That match with Palace, a 3-2 final, might have been the best viewing of the week plus it included another goal for Christian Pulisic.

Arsenal did well with the four points from Wolves and Leicester but it's just not going to be enough.  Even if they win all four remaining contests, Chelsea, Leicester City and Man United would basically have to lose every match for the Gunners to make it.  Tottenham also got four points but their prospects seem even worse.  The 1-0 win on Monday over Everton is now being marketed as a non-pharmaceutical alternative to Ambien plus they could only manage a draw at Bournemouth.  As Michael B. puts it, "looks like we'll be playing in Baku on Thursdays next season."  Actually, they might not even make that.  One or both of Arsenal and Spurs will be clearly finished after this weekend's North London Derby.

At 538, they are showing Chelsea, Man United and Leicester at 99% or 98% likely to qualify for Champions League.  Wolves, at 4%, are the only other team listed with measurable chance.  Note however, this is predicated on the Man City ban being upheld.  If the appeal is successful, then one of those three "sure things" would get left out.  Hey look, Man United face Leicester on the final day of the season.  That would be the match to settle it.


Don't Give Me Any of Your Schit

During the Union-NYCFC match, Taylor Twellman needled Jon Champion for his pronunciation of "shedule."  Without missing a beat, Champion responded "This from a man who says we are broadcasting from "Conneticut"."  Touche.  Enjoyed that match with the traditional 9:05 am MLS starting time.  And the frequent bleeping of the pitch side mics.

The Union came away with an unlikely 1-0 win on the strength of Bedoya's cheeky strike and some late match heroics from keeper Andre Blake.  The score somewhat flatters the U.  NYCFC had more and frankly better chances and more possession.  Even a draw would have been a bit of a steal.  But Blake makes two big saves and Johnson gets his hand to but does not stop Bedoya's shot and there's the difference.  Since the Group stage matches in the tournament count for the regular season (if it really happens), this was a doubly helpful win.


Enough with the Water Breaks

Remember Ted Lasso telling the press how his Tottenham side would play hard for all four quarters?  That's what it's like with these drinks breaks.  They are turning soccer into a game of four 22:30 quarters.  Maybe it was appropriate for the first week or two to ensure players were back to form but shouldn't be necessary now.  And most of the time it's 71 degrees and raining anyway.  It's so U12 youth soccer.  And frankly, as a referee of youth games I often get crap from a few of the parents for allowing water breaks in September when both teams have only one sub.  Man up.

I will make an exception for the MLS tournament in Orlando.  80 plus degrees and 80% plus humidity does justify a break.


How About A Water Break for the Fans?

Twenty more matches in seven days.  Plus whatever you want to take in for the MLS tournament.

The feature match of the weekend is clearly Tottenham-Arsenal Sunday at 12:30 on NBCSN.  A loss probably mathematically eliminates one or the other from Champions League contention; a draw might be enough to sink both.  Chelsea (at Sheffield Saturday 12:30 NBC), Leicester (at Bournemouth Sunday 2 pm NBCSN) and Man United (hosting Southampton Monday 3 pm) are good bets to take all three points in their matches.  Wolves (hosting Everton Sunday at 7 am) will need to rebound to keep pace.

Down at the south end of the table,  Aston Villa's fate could effectively be sealed by two 7:30 Saturday morning matches.  Norwich host West Ham (NBCSN) while Newcastle travel to Watford (Gold).  Wins for the Hammers and the Hornets would be disastrous and even draws might be enough to doom the Villans.  We hold out hope that the Aston Villa - Crystal Palace match at 9:15 Sunday on NBCSN still has meaning.

So much of the Week 36 interest will depend on the weekend results. Chelsea (Tuesday) and Man United (Thursday) have clearly winnable matches against Norwich and Crystal Palace respectively.  Leicester might not have it so easy with a home match against Sheffield United (also Thursday).  Wolves are definitely up against with a road match Tuesday at Burnley (538 doesn't think so but that looks like a tough one to me).

If Aston Villa aren't wiped out over the weekend, they'll need a road win or draw with Everton on Thursday.  The match week concludes with West Ham vs Watford on Friday; Both might already be safe by then but it's another chance to close the relegation door.

The MLS tournament already had to revise its format as Nashville and FC Dallas had so many positive covid-19 tests that both had to drop out.  Somewhat fortuitous for MLS in that instead of different sized groups, they now have a more normal looking set of six groups of four.  The Union play Miami at 10:30 pm on Tuesday.  Plenty of other matches in that tournament if you have the bandwidth.

Seems like a lot to take in now but remember the EPL will be done in just over two weeks.  Then what will you do?

Ich Bin Ein Magpie

We'll start with doings at the south end of the table.  After leaving St. James' Park with a draw, Dennis turned into a full-time Newcastle fan since the Magpies still had fixtures with Aston Villa's main relegation rivals - Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford.  I did suggest to him that any strategy relying on Newcastle was risky to say the least.  Like depending on Susan Collins to vote the right way.

Almiron: He did so well, including the finish
Photograph: Glyn Kirk/NMC Pool/PA Images

But his faith was rewarded on Wednesday as Newcastle, not looking like any Magpie side I can remember, cut through Bournemouth 4-1 at Vitality Stadium.  Dwight Gayle turned a mistake into a quick goal at five minutes and Sean Longstaff added a second at 30 minutes after Saint-Maximin schooled three defenders in the box.  This being Newcastle though, I spent the next 30 minutes waiting for the other shoe to drop.  And it almost did as the Cherries came out much stronger in the second half.  But Almiron put a third in at 57 minutes, basically walking through the Bournemouth defense and slotting an unchallenged shot into the corner of the net.  At that point I was forced to concede that a draw was a real possibility.  An equally nifty and easy play by loanee Valentino Lazaro completed Newcastle's day at 77 minutes, which meant Ryan Dan Gosling's stoppage time goal was merely annoying.

On Sunday, Southampton had put a surprising 3-1 loss on Watford at Vicarage Road, taking expected points away from the Hornets.  So despite Aston Villa's 0-1 loss to Wolves (in which the Villans were not awful, just incapable of finishing - and which was going to be a loss anyway), Dennis's week wasn't going too badly.  Until Wednesday evening that is.  Chelsea, looking good but by no means a lock for a CL spot, stumbled badly, 2-3, at West Ham.  Down 1-2, Willian had looked to at least get the Blues a draw with a goal at 72 minutes.  But a smash and grab counterattack from the Hammers yielded a late goal from Yarmalenko and all three points for West Ham.  The damage to Chelsea's Champions League ambitions was no where near as bad as what it did to Aston Villa.

Using 538 projections, but forcing wins, losses and draws (if winning percentage differential is less than 10 - I call it a draw), I get the following:

West Ham         39 (9 points in final six matches)
Watford             35 (7 points in final six matches)
Aston Villa       28 (1 point in final six matches)
Bournemouth   27 (0 points in final six matches)
Norwich           21 (0) points in final six matches)

To quote Scrooge McDuck - tell me these events can yet be changed.  Maybe.  To start with, besides a draw with Crystal Palace, Villa have to beat West Ham in London on the final day of the season. They also need Newcastle to beat Watford (538 has Watford favored to win) in Week 35 and Watford have to [draw/lose with Norwich in Week 34 (projected as a win) and] lose to West Ham (projected as a draw) in Week 36.  Plus Watford can't pick up any unexpected points against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal.  Recalculating based on the three [four] changes (Villa over West Ham, Newcastle over Watford, Norwich draw with Watford and West Ham over Watford) we get this revised table [updated to reflect math error!?]:

West Ham         41
Aston Villa       31
Watford            29
Bournemouth   27
Norwich           22

Dennis's reaction when I went through the details.

[Update: To clarify, it wasn't a math error.  I had Villa starting at 28, not 27 points.  So in addition to the original three favorable results, Villa also need Watford to lose to or draw with Norwich.  Alternatively, Villa could grab a draw or win at Everton. Either are equally long odds - about 40%.] We can also develop a scenario in which Villa catch West Ham but finish behind Watford but frankly that requires a lot more favorable results (like West Ham not beating Norwich) so I'm going to leave that out for the moment.


The Horse Had Already Left the Barn

On Thursday, Man City rolled all over Liverpool 4-0 in a match that back in August might have looked like a big fixture.  But with the Reds clinching the title last week, all it meant was that City closed the gap to 20 points.  To be fair, Man City had some decent reasons, even leaving aside pride, to push hard in this match because Liverpool are chasing several records that they currently hold.  For example, the win means that Liverpool cannot match City's record of 16 away wins in a season.  Liverpool still have a shot at most points in a season (100), biggest winning margin (19)and most victories in a season (32) so we can maybe understand City's intensity here.  On the other hand, the barn door was left open for a long time...


Correct Call, Stupid Rule

So VAR took another hit on Thursday when Spurs saw an equalizing goal against Sheffield United ruled for handling.  Except it's not the fault of VAR, it's the new handling rule.  Sheffield had just scored but Kane and Spurs leveled things, or so they thought, almost immediately.  But the ball had bounced off the arm of Lucas Moura on its way to Kane.  No doubt it was unintentional, as Moura was falling down at the time.  But the rule couldn't be clearer:

A goal scored or created with the use of the hand or arm will be disallowed even if it is accidental. The handball rule does not consider intent by a player. 

The guys in the booth got it wrong.  Back in the studio, Kyle Martino and Robbie Musto got it exactly right.  The call was absolutely correct given the rules.  But the rules are stupid.  Musto's suggestion was to modify the rule so that goals will be ruled out if they go in directly from handling, accidental or not, but unintentional handling in the build-up shouldn't be called.  The incident and the analysis can be seen here, as this week's YouTubeableMoment(s).

The 1-3 loss is a gut punch to Spurs' Champions League hopes, especially with Man United (easy 3-0 win over Brighton) and Wolves (eking past Aston Villa) getting three points.  The Special One was coy in his feelings about the call, citing the fear of suspension, but he also laid into the team for not responding better to the adverse call.


Newcastle Unveil 10-0-0 Formation

The line up sheet showed a 3-4-3 for Newcastle against Man City in the FA Cup quarterfinal match but we knew that really meant a 5-2-3.  But within minutes it was clearly a 9-0-1 as City put the Magpies under the gun.  Not too long after that, even Andy Carroll was playing behind the ball and the switch to a 10-0-0 was complete.  Did it work?  Yes and no.  Man City could only manage a 2-0 win and one of those was a PK after a stupid push by Fabian Schar in the box late in the first half.  But was it football?  I think the first half possession was 82-18.  Final stats were 76/24, 20/4 total shots and 4/1 shots on goal. I get protecting against a big hit to goal differential in a league contest but not sure why it would matter in a Cup quarterfinal.  Unless Steve Bruce had hoped to keep the match within reach until late with a chance to snatch a late goal.  Whatever.  It was essentially unwatchable.

Not so the other three quarterfinals.  Chelsea - Leicester wasn't awesome but it was close.  Ross Barkley provided the difference with a 63rd minute goal.  Norwich gave Man United far more than expected and Cantwell's goal at 75 minutes was enough to force the match into extra time.  With the prospect of spot kicks looming, Harry Maguire spared us that dreaded process with a poacher-like effort to slip the ball past Tim Krul.  Norwich tenacity was all the more notable given that the Canaries played the extra time down a man.  The script at Bramall Lane was nearly similar.  Underdogs Sheffield United looked to have forced extra time with McGoldrick's goal at 87 minutes.  But Dani Ceballos slipped one inside the near post to send the Gunners onto the semi-finals.

So we will see Arsenal - Man City on July 18 and Man United - Chelsea on July 19, both matches at Wembley.


Abstentia?

Arlo White keeps saying Liverpool clinched the title in "abstentia."  Can't find this on the internet.  Does it mean a state of not drinking?  A small country that was formerly part of the USSR?  I don't know.

Another random observation. I swear ESPN perfectly simulated a restless crowd at St. James' Park during the 0-2 FA Cup loss in which Newcastle played the role of a punch drunk sparring partner to Man City. 


I Mee Scored

Not a grammatical error.  Ben "Eff" Mee got a great header goal in the otherwise unnoteworthy 1-0 win for Burnley over Crystal Palace.  Not saying they were in flip flops but not too much at stake there.  


Back to Double Duty

Triple if you have any plans to watch the MLS tournament.

Match week 33 plays out over Saturday-Monday and Match week 34 runs from Tuesday-Thursday.  I'd go with Wolves - Arsenal as the match of week 33 (Saturday 12:30 NBCSN).  Aside from just plain enjoying watching the Wolves play, this is a big test for them if they really fancy themselves as Champions League participants.  Same for Arsenal - a loss here might leave them too far back.  Surprisingly - to me anyway - 538 has the Gunners as big underdogs here.  And NBC, some Indy car race means you bumped the feature match of the weekend to NBCSN?  What's up with that?  Guess motor car racing fits the July 4th holiday better than English football.  

Show of hands.  Who's getting up at 7:30 on Saturday for Norwich - Brighton.  That's what I thought.  Man United hosting Bournemouth at 10 am (NBCSN) has implications at the top and bottom of the table, as does Chelsea - Watford at 3:00 on NBCSN.  They look like comfortable home wins; Dennis certainly hopes so.  Leicester, looking for a boost to nail down their spot, face - Crystal Palace (10 am NBC Gold).

Newcastle - West Ham (9:15 NBCSN) may be the best of Sunday's fare.  With Aston Villa traveling to Anfield (11:30 NBCSN), Dennis will be hoping for better results elsewhere - looking at you Man United, Chelsea and Newcastle.  Sheffield United face a stern test at Burnley (7 am Sunday NBCSN) to see if they really are going to contend for a Champions League berth.  The matchweek concludes on Monday with Spurs hosting Everton (3 pm NBCSN); I would think anything less than a win for Tottenham is the end of Champions League hopes.

I'm going with Arsenal - Leicester (3:15 Tuesday) as the pick for Week 34; aside from looking like a close match, the implications for a top four or five or six finish could be massive.  Dennis and I will be closely following Watford - Norwich (1 pm Tuesday) and West Ham - Burnley (1 pm Wednesday), looking for dropped points from Aston Villa's relegation rivals.  Especially since Villa have to take on surging Man United on Thursday (3:15) and are not likely to get any points themselves.  I would also recommend Sheffield United - Wolves (1 pm Wednesday) as the two upstart clubs face each other.

I will admit to skepticism about the MLS Is Back Tournament.  Feels very gimmicky and basically a way to get the players some conditioning before the "season" starts.  Group stage runs from July 8 to July 23.  Final is set for August 11.  Details on the brackets and schedule are here.  Firm details on what happens after the tournament are lacking, though there is still noise about an 18-22 game regular season starting in late August.

This hot weather sure makes it easy to stay inside and watch matches.