Another Season on the Brink?

Let's hope we see a lot of this -
 Almiron (l) and Joelinton high-fiving

I had almost gotten to a point of believing that Newcastle might not suck this year until I read a slew of season previews.  Wow.  Pundit after pundit has the Magpies in the bottom three.  Seems like they are less than impressed with Joelinton and Saint-Maximin, Newcastle's two key summer signings.  The Guardian suggests that Joelinton looks good but is injury prone and Saint-Maximin's work ethic might not be all that it needs to be.

I take solace that 538 has the Magpies at 13th.  That seems about right to me.  Yes, they lost Perez and Rondon.  But the defense from last year is intact, and actually may be better if LeJeune and Longstaff stay in the line up all year.  That defense yielded equal 7th fewest goals in the EPL.  On the attacking side, they will have Almiron for the full season and both Joelinton and Saint-Maximin look to be offensive threats.  In other words, Almiron may be the Unos Amigo after the departure of Rondon and Perez but it looks like he might have help.  Not saying this squad is close to qualifying for Europe or even a top 10 finish.  And it's very possible they'll never do well enough to make a clear break from the bottom three.  But I don't see Newcastle as an obvious relegation candidate.  The frustration that may bleed through the commentary here is more about what this franchise could and should be - a regular upper table finisher instead of a perennial relegation avoider.

Touring around the EPL predictions, you mostly get Man City, Liverpool and Spurs as 1-2-3.  Fourth is divided up among Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United.  The upper mid-table is inhabited by Everton, Leicester, Wolves and West Hampton.  Though not as highly rated, I didn't see anybody calling for Crystal Palace,  Watford or Southampton to be relegated.  After that you have seven teams that look like possible relegation candidates.  Frankly I don't see Bournemouth belonging in that list but some do.

I did a simple spreadsheet of the 13 predictions I found.  There were many, many others that did top four and relegations but I couldn't use them for this table.  Very unscientific so we can't really call it a meta analysis but it was fun to see if there was general consensus.

	Average	High	Low
Man City	1.15	1	2
Liverpool	1.85	1	2
Tottenham	3.31	3	5
Chelsea	4.77	3	8
Arsenal	5.00	3	6
Man United	5.31	4	8
Everton	7.77	7	9
Leicester	7.92	5	10
Wolves	8.54	6	10
West Ham	10.00	7	15
Watford	12.31	10	17
Bournemouth	13.31	11	19
Crystal Palace	13.38	10	17
Southampton	13.69	12	16
Aston Villa	14.69	12	20
Burnley	14.85	10	19
Newcastle	17.15	13	20
Brighton	17.77	16	20
Sheffield United	17.92	9	20
Norwich	17.92	11	20

Manager Match Game

I count six new faces on the sidelines this year plus some that may not have fully registered in your brain from last year.  Can you match the club with the manager?  Answers next week, or on the internet if you want to check for yourself.

Club		Manager
Man City		Graham Potter
Liverpool		Steve Bruce
Tottenham		Chris Wilder
Chelsea		Pep Guardiola
Arsenal		Roy Hodgson
Man United		Brendan Rogers
Everton		Dean Smith
Leicester		Eddie Howe
Wolves		Frank Lampard
West Ham		Marco Silva
Watford		Mauricio Pochettino
Bournemouth		Unai Emery
Crystal Palace		Jurgen Klopp
Southampton		Manuel Pellegrini
Aston Villa		Nuno Espirito Santo
Burnley		Daniel Farke
Newcastle		Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
Sheffield United		Ralph Hasenhuttl
Brighton		Javi Gracia
Norwich		Sean Dyche

Union Dis United

He's not doing karaoke; Union captain Alejandro Bedoya
ran to the nearest mic after scoring to urge Congress to
do something about gun violence
 (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Last week we wrote about the big differential in the Union's fortunes with and without Wagner and Monteiro in the lineup.  Sunday they both played and the score was 5-1.  At some point it can't be coincidence.  Sure the Union's cause was helped by playing a man up from 40 minutes on.  However, they were on DC's case from the gecko, with Bedoya finding the net in just the third minute.  They dominated the rest of the half and the sending off was a direct result of all the pressure.  BTW, that red card was VAR assisted, correctly IMHO.  Though shuh-BILL-koh missed the ensuing PK, Fabian did get a second tally in first half stoppage time. The critical timing and elegant simplicity of the goal make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A third in the 52nd minute seemed to put things to bed, except that DC got a Brillant goal (no, that's the guy's name - Frederick Brillant) a few minutes later to bring some doubt into the situation.  Fortunately Fabian and later Picault added insurance goals to salt away a truly key road victory and move the Union back to top of the table.

Atlanta had temporarily taken over first on the strength of a 3-0 handling of LA Galaxy on Saturday evening.  A slightly disappointing affair based on our expectations; LA playing without Ibrahimovic (yellow card suspension) took away some of the game's luster.  Red Bulls beat Toronto while Real Salt Lake took care of NYCFC.  So we should see this as a good weekend when first place was under attack and the Union were up to the task.


Chester to Champions League Final

We took a 5-2 aggregate win over Real Madrid, advancing the Chester Blues to the Champions League final.  That was sandwiched around a terrible performance in a 1-0 win over Stoke and a dominating effort in an 0-1 loss to Newcastle.  Worse, our second leading scorer broke his arm and will be out for the Champions League final.  And, we just found out that we'll be missing five players for the FA Cup Final as they have been called up for the Gold Cup; the list includes our number one keeper and right winger and our number two defender and striker.  Regardless of how things end it will have a been a great season but the quad is so close.  We still look good for the EPL title and our depth may be enough to cover the absences.


Break's Over

Hopefully you've completed your big summer projects because it's time to get serious about watching some soccer.

Things kickoff Friday at 3 pm (NBCSN) with Liverpool hosting Norwich at Anfield; frankly it's hard to see this as much of a contest but since it's the first one, we'll be watching.  Saturday morning starts early with a 7:30 (NBCSN) contest between West Ham and Man City; again, not seeing this as a close one but it's the only thing on.  The 10 am NBCSN game is Bournemouth vs Sheffield United.  We're more likely to check out Crystal Palace - Everton on NBC Gold (everybody's subscriptions up to date?).  The NBC feature match up at 12:30 is Spurs hosting newly promoted Aston Villa; Dennis already has this one down as a "L" for the Villans.

Three matches of interest for us on Sunday.  At 9 am (NBCSN) we'll be settling in to see Newcastle host Arsenal.  Though not as awful as the away fixture, the Magpies generally do not do well against the Gunners; 538 has Arsenal at 45% chance of winning and 25% chance of a draw.  Side story will be the size of the fan boycott at Saint James' Park.  The size of the boycott won't be clear from the announced attendance because many of the potential protesters are season ticket holders; more telling will be the number of empty seats.  The other 9 am match on CNBC looks to be a cracker with Leicester hosting Wolves; both teams are noted for attractive football so if you don't like car crashes you might do better to choose this one over Newcastle-Arsenal.  The EPL weekend concludes at 11 am on NBCSN with the marquee match of the weekend, Man United vs Chelsea at Old Trafford.  As you saw from the predictions, these two are expected to fight it out for one of the Champions League positions so we're expecting a good one.  Ole Gunner is way up there in the odds for first manager to be sacked so he would benefit greatly from a win here.

Plenty to follow on this side of the pond too.  Union are home against Houston on Sunday night; that really has to be a win.  NYCFC uses up one of its games in hand tonight taking on Houston; probably a win for them but maybe it saps Houston a little for Sunday.  After last week's mini-bust in Atlanta I'm a little hesitant to recommend again but Sunday at 3:55 on ESPN you can see Atlanta host NYCFC.  This should be a good match.  Also nice that two in the chase pack have to play each other.  The Red Bulls are on the west coast to face LAFC while DC take on the LA Galaxy in Washington.  Toronto host Orlando so they probably get a win and don't give up any ground in the playoff race.  A quick reminder of MLS playoff priorities:

- top seven to make playoffs
- top four to have home field advantage
- first place to get first round bye

With all the playoffs now one game only, that home field advantage could be critical.


Breaking Post Posting News - Newcastle have signed Andy Carroll.  Haven't seen the particulars but it sounds like the deal is heavy on incentives, as in, if he plays he gets paid but if he's injured a lot, it won't cost too much.  I'm okay with a deal like that.  Wouldn't have wanted to see them risk big bucks and have him sit on sidelines but this sounds good.