Don't Look Back, Something Might Be Gaining on You

Thank you Mr. Paige.  For the Union that something would be the rest of the MLS East.  For Newcastle, it's the Championship Division.  Not a good week for either franchise.


Can You Have Four Goals Against the Run of Play?

Ever come out of a knife fight thinking you whupped the other guy only to find you took a stiletto in the back early on and were in big trouble?  Yeah, me neither.  But the Union's 0-4 defeat at Montreal must be what it's like.   Sure looked like the Union were controlling the match from the get-go, except they surrendered goals at 4, 36, 46 and 66 minutes.  The stats show 64-36 possession advantage, 8-1 on corners, 13-11 on shots; perhaps tellingly shots on target were 3-6.  So was this a counterattacking master class or lousy defending?  Likely both.  Ray Gaddis will want to destroy any game film.  Wasn't Blake's finest 90 minutes either.  There were some scoring chances but not that many given the possession advantage.

Another day when they clearly missed Wagner (yellow card accumulation suspension) and probably Monteiro (sprained ankle).  Piecing together the Union with and without Wagner I get the following:

	Vith	Vithout
Games	20	4
Record	10-5-5	1-1-2
Points	35	4
PPG	1.75	1.00
Goals allowed	27	9
GA per game	1.35	2.25

Now clearly we have a small numbers problem with the few times that Wagner hasn't played but the differences are noticeable.  The numbers with and without Monteiro are pretty striking too and number of games without is higher:

	With	Without
Games	15	9
Record	8-4-3	3-2-4
Points	28	11
PPG	1.87	1.22
Goals allowed	20	16
GA per game	1.33	1.78
Goals scored	30	11
GS per game	2.00	1.22

Not quite as big on the PPG and GA per game but notice the difference in scoring.

I mentioned that the MLS is gaining on the Union but that's not completely true.  NYCFC got three over Sporting KC and DC United did manage a draw at Chicago.  However, Red Bulls lost at home to Columbus and Atlanta went down to LAFC on the west coast.  So at the start of August, they still sit top of the table.  On points per game, only NYCFC is better.  But it still feels like the rest of the conference is closing in.  Under the new playoff format, goal number one is to finish in the top seven.  Despite our first place position,  8th place Toronto is just seven points back with a game in hand.  That means a playoff berth is by no means assured at this point.  Good to have both Wagner and Monteiro back starting this weekend.


Same Old Same Old Tyneside

Meet the new summer transfer window, same as the old transfer window.  Can't get people off the roster either because their wages are too high or Newcastle get stuck on a target transfer fee and won't budge.  Or both.  Can't get people as the total wage bill is too high because we can't move people off the roster plus we get stuck on transfer fee and won't budge.  Or both.  So any transfer that we do get come in late in preseason and take time to fit in with the squad.  The perfect recipe for another poor start to a season which begins in a week. 

Going glass is 1/8th full for a moment, the Joelinton signing was cool because 1) he looks like a good player and 2) Newcastle actually put out £40 million. [Quick aside here - the easy way to put the £ sign in text is to hold the Alt key, type 0163, then release the Alt key.  Where else you gonna get this stuff?]  Also, we have some hope that the Magpies will hold onto Longstaff and Hayden.  And the news on bringing in French winger Allan Saint-Maximin looks positive.

 Bournemouth have the best preseason bonding exercises
Photograph: Robin Jones/AFC Bournemouth
 via Getty Images

The season kicks off next Friday afternoon with Liverpool v Norwich and continues with a full slate of matches on Saturday and Sunday.  The Guardian has a great preview series in which they release two teams previews in alphabetical order a day.  So far they've done eight; 19th place (Brighton) is taken but two other relegation spots are unclaimed at this point.  I'm inclined to think that Sheffield United and Norwich will get the other two which makes me think Newcastle will be slotted either 17th or 13th based on spots already taken.  You can follow the series here.


Chester Roll

Bernardo's strike from about 25 yards steals a win for Chester
over Man United in the 89th minute at Old Trafford

I must have done some things right.  We are into the FA Cup Finals against Man City and the Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid.  We have a three point lead over Liverpool with two games in hand with six matches to play; we will finish no worse than second.  The player complaints have stopped, only one serious injury problem right now and complacency doesn't seem to be an issue.  Line up work every time and tactical decisions, not necessarily my strong suit, get the results I'm looking for.  Maybe it just took a while for things to gel with the bigger roster, which has really paid off with a schedule that rarely includes four days without a match.  We've met all the board's goals so in some ways, anything else is gravy but it would be nice to pull off the quad.


Last Week of Vacation

The Union are in DC for critical match Sunday at 7:30.  A loss would put DC ahead on goal differential if goal differential were the tie breaker.  But it's wins so the Union could still retain first with a loss.  That is, if Atlanta don't beat the Galaxy at home on Saturday.  I recommend tuning into that one at 5 pm on Fox.  Other than the fact that it's indoors on turf, this should be a good contest in front of about 60,000 rabid fans.

This is the last slow weekend until sometime next May so get your yardwork done now.