Best Game of the Year?

Lingard's second arrived as Arsenal were beginning
 to build on Lacazette's goal

Sometimes the highly anticipated match ups do pan out.  Man United's 3-1 result over Arsenal was one of those times, at least for the neutrals and United fans; even Gunners fans would have to admit it was pretty good viewing.  Disappointingly (especially for Arsenal), two mistakes gave Man United a 2-0 lead just 11 minutes but fortunately Arsenal gave every indication that they were not out of the match.  Lacazette's early second half goal backed that up. MUN keeper David DeGea was tested regularly but held firm.  Against the run of play, Lingard added to the Manchester lead but the Arsenal pressure left hope for a comeback.  Those hopes were further raised when Pogba got himself sent off in the 74th minute for a ridiculous studs up challenge.  But even with the advantage, Arsenal could get no closer.  Thrilling stuff.

For those who like more x's and o's in their analysis, check out this report from Germantown Friends (I  think) product and former Chestnut Hill Lightning player Henry Bushnell.  Actually, his Monday column for Yahoo Sports should be a regular Monday stop for an incisive look at the EPL weekend. 

Low Bar

Newcastle improved on previous results by losing only 1-3 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  Not a huge deal since this was marked down as a loss back in June when the schedule came out.  Did we learn anything new?  Not really.  Matt Richie is probably not suited to play left wingback (and maybe DeAndre Yedlin wasn't solely responsible for some of the defensive breakdowns in early matches).  With another goal, Dwight Gayle now looks, for better or worse, like our best answer up top.  We continue to look like a Championship club and I mean that in the worst way.

The potential sale is looking more like potential and less real every day.  Ashley and Staveley are pretty far apart on price (£300m vs £250m) and the team's recent form isn't helping.  Ashley's valuation is actually more than £300m but we're hearing he would take that price, likely because the team looks more like a relegation candidate than it did a few months ago.  But there is a risk for Staveley as well; if Newcastle stay up, Ashley will be in a better position to get close to, or even better than his valuation.  So we have a £50 million game of chicken.

My first impression was that the potential loss in value to Ashley is greater than the upside of getting his asking price but then I realized we can calculate this.  Fivethirtyeight has Newcastle with a 25% chance of getting relegated.  The top Championship side right now is valued at about 86 m euros.  Let's assume that Newcastle is worth £100m if relegated.  What price does Ashley have to get to make him indifferent between a £250m sure thing now versus taking the risk they get relegated?  Do the algebra and the number is £300m.  So if Ashley thinks he can do better than £300m if they don't get relegated, then £250m isn't enough for him to sell now.  A bunch of critical assumptions there - relegation chance of 25% (actually that feels about right), value of Newcastle as a Championship club (might be more than £100m given Newcastle's stature - which means that £250m won't be enough to entice Ashley) and finally we're assuming Ashley is risk neutral (who knows, but he seems to have taken risks and not spent money in the past and gotten relegated so it's possible he's risk loving, which also means he won't bite at £250m). Still with me?

It's possible that Ashley will allow some spending in January to decrease the likelihood of relegation and to protect the value of his investment.  This really does feel like a critical time for the franchise.  In six months they could be under new ownership with access to funds to improve the roster.  Or they could be back in the Championship division, likely without Benitez, which might mean an extended stay this time. 

Elsewhere

You have to say Tottenham were on the lucky side to come away with a draw at Watford.  At 1-1, Sanchez got himself sent off  (a bit harsh maybe but I think I would have made the same call), leaving Spurs down a man for most of the second half.  The good news is that they were pretty solid even with 10 and held on for the draw.  The lucky news is that Dier could have easily been whistled for handling in the box in stoppage time; I would have called it and you guys know I'm pretty generous about giving the player the benefit of the doubt.  Still, even with the draw, Michael B is out on the ledge with me.

Man City slipped by West Ham 2-1 with another late goal, though not from Raheem Sterling this time.  Instead, David Silva got the honors with a piece of real skill off an equally deft pass from DeBruyne.  We'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; looks good from any one of the 53 angles presented, right?

Liverpool got themselves into the top four with a 5-1 pasting of Brighton.  In a relegation worthy contest, West Brom and Crystal Palace struggled to a 0-0 draw.  Everton continues to show signs of life, taking the measure of Huddersfield 2-0.  The Toffees, along with with Leicester (1-0 winners over Burnley), look to be making a case that they should be considered solid mid-table material now.



Derby, MLS Cup, Derby, Derby

Action packed weekend ahead.  Saturday gets going bright and early with a London derby - though it may be derby in name only - as West Ham host Chelsea (7:30 NBCSN).  The MLS Cup final featuring Toronto and Seattle is at 4 pm on ESPN.  Sunday brings two more derbies with Liverpool-Everton at 9:15 and Man United vs Man City at 11:30 (both on NBCSN).

The MLS Cup is a rematch of last year's final.  Here's hoping that they can produce something more interesting this time; recall that Seattle won on kicks from the spot without ever registering a shot on goal in 120 minutes.  Toronto is trying for an unprecedented triple, having won their domestic cup and the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS).  You can find some additional details here.  I continue to remain squarely in the Toronto camp for this one.

What to do about the Manchester derby?  Not really a fan of either side, but a City win would mean at least an 11 point gap at the top.  Even a draw would keep the Citizens up by at least nine.  Bad news for United in that Pogba is suspended and he seems to have keyed an improved offense for the Red Devils.

A few weeks ago I wouldn't have put too much on seeing a good Merseyside derby but Everton may have figured themselves out.  Good thing because Liverpool are pretty hot right now.

Somebody at NBC must have a sense of humor to make Newcastle-Leicester the featured game at 12:30 on Saturday.  I suppose if the good Newcastle team shows up it could be quite an even match up.  But how likely is that?

An interesting match up that will likely be ignored is Burnley-Watford.  These two limited resource sides currently sit 7th and 8th in the table, though they have gotten there by different routes.  Burnley have surrendered just 12 goals, a record only bettered by the two Manchester sides.  Watford have scored 25 but have yielded 26, fourth worst in the EPL.  You'll have to go to NBC Gold for this one but it might be worth it.

Other TV games this weekend include Tottenham-Stoke at 10 am Saturday on NBCSN and Southampton-Arsenal Sunday at 7 am on NBCSN.  Plenty of relegation match ups on NBC Gold at 10 am Saturday - Crystal Palace-Bournemouth, Huddersfield-Brighton and Swansea-West Brom.

Forecast calls for snow most of Saturday.  Sounds like an excuse to watch soccer to me.