The Twelve Days of Football

Actually it's 17 19 20 days. Every club will have five matches between 12/16 and 1/4 and at some point everybody will play two matches in three days.  The period was extended by one day because the New Year's Eve game between Tottenham and West Ham at Wembley got moved to January 4th based on "transport concerns." Expecting resources to be already stretched by the holiday, officials were going to limit attendance to 43,000, about half of the stadium's capacity.  Moving the match to the 4th means they can sell tickets to full capacity.

BFS will once again use its exclusive Santa rating system to assess how the teams fared in the holiday period:

	From Paul McCartney - "Simply having a wonderful Christmastime"
	Santa obviously read your list very carefully
	Nice enough but you didn't get the Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time you really wanted
	Ties are a nice gift but how many do you really need?
	You may have been naughtier than you realized

Walk A Mile in Craig Pawson's Boots

Well the internet has certainly been full of debate about whether Craig Pawson got the PK call right in the Merseyside derby that ended 1-1.  For every pundit that is adamant it was a foul, I'll find another who thinks it was a travesty.  For every ex-player who feels Lovren was hard done, I'll get you one who says it was a stone cold penalty.  And so on.  I will note that even many Liverpool-centric sites have said the call was right.  You can get a good look at the incident here.

Frankly, labeling it nonsense or absolutely obvious overstates how difficult a call this was.  It is true that contact or putting your hands on a player is not by itself a foul.  I'd be rich if I had a nickel for every time I've had to explain to coaches and parents why an incident with significant contact and a player going down wasn't a foul but minor contact without the player falling was. And, you could argue that Calvert-Lewin alters his path to ensure that contact does occur.  Does he go down too easily?  Not really relevant to the discussion but he was coming in at full speed and Lovren's contact was in the same direction so I'm not sure it was easy for the Everton attacker to keep his balance.

IMHO, there was enough here for the call.  I would have signaled for it (or more accurately hope I would have had the guts to call it) had it occurred in a game I was reffing.  Let's take a look at the Laws of the Game.

1. Direct free kick
A direct free kick is awarded if a player commits any of the following offences
against an opponent in a manner considered by the referee to be careless,
reckless or using excessive force:
• charges
• jumps at
• kicks or attempts to kick
• pushes
• strikes or attempts to strike (including head-butt)
• tackles or challenges
• trips or attempts to trip
If an offence involves contact it is penalised by a direct free kick or penalty
kick.
• Careless is when a player shows a lack of attention or consideration when
making a challenge or acts without precaution. No disciplinary sanction is
needed
• Reckless is when a player acts with disregard to the danger to, or
consequences for, an opponent and must be cautioned
• Using excessive force is when a player exceeds the necessary use of force and endangers the safety of an opponent and must be sent off

It's true that Lovren did not extend his arms but charging is also a foul.  Was there contact?  I thought so.  Was it careless?  Again I think so.  I based much of that on the relative positions of the players.  Look at about 2:09 in the video.  That does not look like shoulder to shoulder to me but rather Lovren's chest to the back right side of Calvert-Lewin.  What was Lovren supposed to do you might ask?  He's supposed to know that he's been beaten and if he doesn't change direction or speed he's going to end up charging into Calvert-Lewin.  Btw, Lovren got a yellow in the incident but I think that might have been for kicking the ball away as Rooney was preparing for the PK. 

Three final thoughts on the matter.  First, if this is the "worst call" we see this year then good on the referees.  Second, does anybody think Sam Allardyce doesn't give a similar interview to Jurgen Klopp if the call goes the other way?  And lastly, if the EPL had VAR, do you think the video reveals evidence of a clear and obvious error?   For me, honest answers to all of those questions say this was an extremely close call and ranting about it on one side or the other is just bluster.


Kriticizing Klopp

Not a good week on the internet for Jurgen Klopp.  He's taken a boatload of criticism for two post-match interviews but also for his player selection for the derby.  The two interviews can be seen here and here; surely not his best moments but actually not as bad as I was expecting.  Imagine the "Special One" in the same situation.  Why do we have to hear from them as they walk off the pitch?  Seems like a surefire way to for "uncomfortable" situations to arise.

As for player selection issues, he's taking heat for leaving Coutinho, Firmino, Wijnaldum and Emre Can out of the starting eleven for Everton.  I can see Jurgen's point of view on this one too, but only up to a point.  Looking at EPL, Champions League and FA Cup matches, Liverpool have 14 matches in 49 days between 11/18 and 1/5 so player rotation is critical to keeping fresh legs on the pitch.  And while a manager is hired to win derbies, he's also hired, at least in Liverpool's case, to get a top four finish and do well in the Champions League so I can understand that other priorities could lead him to fielding less than the best possible squad for Everton.  And really, the side dominated Everton so did he really get it wrong?  A few missed chances and it was easily 2-0 or 3-0 before the PK even happens.

But maybe Coutinho doesn't miss those chances or creates more.  My problem is that if you look at the fixtures, the hardest ones in this stretch were Chelsea on 11/25, Everton on 12/10 and Arsenal on 12/22.  I realize that technically they hadn't clinched a spot in the Champions League knockout round prior to the 12/6 7-0 pounding of Spartak Moscow but once the result was clear, why not get Coutinho off the pitch and have him available for Sunday.  My point is that I think Klopp should have been planning to field close to his strongest side against Everton and even with fixture congestion, he could have done so.


Results

Geez, I've probably spilled 1,000 words already without talking about the week's results.  With two sets of EPL matches plus the MLS final, things are starting to run together a bit.  I do remember twice abandoning the TV match for NBC Gold in search of more exciting and meaningful stuff.  For example, the taut Burnley-Watford matchup between EPL upstarts was excellent viewing, as the Hornets, though down a man, played tough until to the end in an 0-1 loss.  Same thing on Tuesday as I switched from Huddersfield-Chelsea to Crystal Palace-Watford and was rewarded with a stirring comeback by the Eagles.  Down 0-1 late, Crystal Palace had taken over the run of the play when Tom Cleverley got his second yellow in the 87th minute.  Down a man for the second match in a row, Watford surrendered goals in the 89th and 92nd minutes and the Selhurst Park crowd went wild.  Despite the implication for Newcastle, I enjoyed the moment.

Christian Benteke reacts to missing the injury-time penalty
 at Selhurst Park. Photograph: Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images

Random recollections from the rest of the fixtures:

- Two soul-sapping losses for Newcastle including 2-3 to Leicester (Perez own goal in the 86th minute) and 0-1 to Everton (massive mistake by keeper Darlow and an absolutely uninspired second half).

- Nobody slipped ahead of the Magpies but everybody below got points (West Ham 4, Crystal Palace 4, Swansea 3 and West Brom 1).

- Crystal Palace could have had six points except that Benteke insisted that he should be the one to take a stoppage time PK instead to the team's usual PK man Luka Milivojevic.  The result was predictable (see picture) and Crystal Palace had to settle for a draw against Bournemouth.

- Is the title race really over after Man City's 2-1 triumph over Man United?  Might be.

- Burnley was briefly in 4th after their win over Watford and even after all the matches concluded, they sit 6th but equal with 4th and 5th place Tottenham and Liverpool on points.  They have allowed just 12 goals all year, with only the Manchester sides doing better at 11.


Recalculating

Last week I suggested that even taking into account the possibility of relegation, Newcastle owner Mike Ashley was probably not totally irrational in turning down the 250 million offer on the table (all figures are in pounds but I'm tired of cutting and pasting the symbol for the British pound).  This was based on two key assumptions - that a relegated Newcastle would only be worth 100m and the chance of relegation was 25%.  Well, after losses to Leicester and Everton, fivethirtyeight has the chance of Newcastle going down at 42% and in fact projects them for 19th.  Plugging that new number into the equation, the analysis suggests that Ashley would have to expect to get 358 million to justify passing on the 250 million sure thing.  But wait, it gets even better.  There are widespread reports that the bid has been raised to 300 million.  Ashley would need to believe he could get 445 million if Newcastle survive relegation to justify passing on that offer.  The man has made many a poor decision as owner of Newcastle but let's hope he gets this one right.

Aside from the higher purchase price, there are discussions about how Benitez would get up to 30 million to spend in the January transfer window even if the sale isn't completed until February or later.  That of course would by no means guarantee that the Magpies would avoid relegation but should improve the odds of staying up.  Also, I would expect that it might be a long road back up if they do go down and Ashley is still the owner, but I'm more optimistic that ownership that just plunked down 300 million would do everything it could to ensure that the club came right back up.


All Hail TFC

Toronto FC completed what should be considered the finest season ever for an MLS club with a 2-0 win over Seattle.  The match was at once closer than the score indicates but also really not that close. Despite dominating in just about every category, the score was 0-0 until Altidore broke through in the

67th minute.  The second goal came in stoppage time.  Seattle did manage two shots on goal this year but were never really in the match, except for the fact they were always one set piece away from the lead or leveling the match.  With the win Toronto completes what they call the domestic triple - winning the Canadian national competition, the Supporters Shield (best record in MLS) and the MLS Cup.  Okay, maybe not the same as winning the EPL, the FA Cup and Champions League but you can only win the competitions you can play in.


U-10 U-7 Stat of the Week

If EPL matches were only 20 minutes long, Newcastle would have 23 points.  Since I'm not going to spend the time to go through everybody's records, I can't tell you how high up the table the Magpies would be.  However, based on this table (page comes up with 15 minute stats so click on the tab for 10 minute intervals).I think they would be in the top six.  Check out the Manchester clubs in the last 10 minutes. 


Goin' Down to Laurel Easton (musical accompaniment courtesy Steve Forbert)

Out of pocket Saturday so will be spending the weekend trying to catch up.  My least favorite fixture of all-time - Arsenal-Newcastle at the Emirates - is Saturday at 10 am.  This never, ever goes well for the Magpies; it's on CNBC if you want to follow the carnage.  The 12:30 NBC featured game might be interesting as Man City host Tottenham.   Otherwise, not seeing stuff that blows me away.  Wait, I take that back.  Leicester - Crystal Palace could be a hoot (Saturday 7:30 NBCSN).  The Foxes have 13 points in the last five games while the Eagles are unbeaten in their last six and always seem to make things interesting.  Might be a goal or four here.

Other TV games include Chelsea-Southampton (Saturday 10 am NBCSN), West Brom - Man United (Sunday 9:15 NBCSN) and Bournemouth-Liverpool (Sunday 11 NBCSN).  There's also a Monday game with Everton hosting Swansea (3 pm NBCSN).

It's possible I could wake up Tuesday morning to see Newcastle at the bottom of the table.  What a comforting thought.  C'mon Ashley, take the deal!