A Bump in the Road

 A pair of 1-0 losses slowed Newcastle's momentum, although their chance of staying up is largely unchanged.  The Union were a tad better and got another three points.

A Better Quality Bus

Havertz bursts Newcastle's bubble in the 89th minute

I was dismayed to see Newcastle come out in a 5-4-1 against Chelsea.  Parking the bus against the superior team.  And to be clear, defense was the Magpies' top priority here and it shows in the possession stats (27/73).  But there were two important differences from the Newcastle of a few months ago.  First, the defending was solid; Chelsea only took eight shots and didn't get one on target until very late in the match.  Second, Newcastle actually mounted some serious attacking threats.  Enough that Michael B kept texting me that he predicted a smash and grab win for the Magpies.  Unfortunately there was no fairy tale ending here, at least for Newcastle.  In the 89th minute, with a point in sight, Kai Havertz took a perfect pass from Jorginho, controlled it brilliantly with a single touch and flicked the ball past Dubravka for the game's only goal.  

Though they brought home no points, there were still positives to take away from the 0-1 loss.  They were minutes away from a draw on the road to third place Chelsea.  This with Eddie Howe somewhat shorthanded due to illness (Shelvey and Willock) and injuries (Joe L Linton out and Allan Saint-Maximin only available as a late substitute).  Matt Targett had another excellent performance and was probably the Magpies player; Dan Burn, though beaten by Havertz on the game winner was also solid in the back again.  Though a loss on the scoresheet, this was not a step in the wrong direction.  

We Didn't Deserve to Win Anyway

"I got the near post"

Maybe the 1-0 loss to Everton wasn't a step in the wrong direction but it felt like it.  After a wildly
entertaining first half that somehow ended 0-0, the second half became mostly a slugfest.  Newcastle got a pretty clear break when Allan was sent off for a yellow card challenge that Pawson decided was a red card.  The Magpies had some okay chances but it wasn't like they were knocking on the door. As the match proceeded into 14 minutes of stoppage time (a protestor zip tied himself to the goalpost to call attention to Britain's terrible energy policies - see picture right), I was very much feeling like let's call this a draw and go home.  But then Everton executed an excellent counter. leaving Newcastle to rue the missed chances.  I soon realized that I wasn't annoyed that they had lost but that they didn't deserve to win in the first place.  Not a devastating loss but a missed chance to end the relegation threat.  For Everton on the other hand, the three points were critical.  So important that Frank Lampard broke his hand celebrating the goal.  I am not making this up.  

When Do We Get Our Apology from PGMOL?

Other than the shirt pull and the trip, Chalobah's tackle was clean
Photo: BBC Match of the Day

You may recall a few weeks ago the outrage sparked when Rodri of Man City was not called for handling in the box.  In that one, PGMOL felt compelled to make an apology to Everton management. Well check out this play (should open to 4:03) in the Newcastle - Chelsea match.  Chalobah could have been called for tripping or holding Jacob Murphy but instead we got a corner kick.  Hmm, I guess two wrongs don't make a PK.  Real time I was skeptical about a foul but the replay was pretty clear.  Readers know that I don't pin results on referees' decisions.  Who knows, maybe Wood or whoever misses the PK.  Still, this looks at least as egregious as the Rodri non-call and I eagerly await the PGMOL phone call apologizing.  

Mixed Results

We are not quite done with scoreboard watching.  Newcastle did get some help from other clubs, although some of the "help" came from teams below us in the table.  For example, Brentford stung Burnley 2-0, a result that nearly has the Bees clear while putting the Clarets in more jeopardy.  Likewise, Leeds grabbed all three points at home with a stoppage time goal against Norwich; the Canaries had just leveled things in the 91st minute but were denied a result with Gelhardt's late goal.  Wolves also aided our cause with a 1-0 win over Everton.  Aside from the Leeds and Brentford wins, Watford also pinned back Southampton 2-1; 

The Title Race Tightens

Crystal Palace put up a brave effort against Man City at Selhurst Park and were rewarded with a 0-0 draw.  City might be said to have a type; there are certain sides they just seem to have trouble with.  They lost twice to Tottenham, drew twice with Southampton, drew once and lost once to Palace and drew with Liverpool.  No other teams have taken points from them.  

Liverpool took advantage with a workmanlike 2-0 win over Brighton on Saturday and a 2-0 win on Wednesday against Arsenal, closing the gap to just a single point.  The two sides have now played the same number of games played; Liverpool have a slight advantage on goal differential.  They meet on 4/10 at The Etihad.  At 538, City are slight favorites in that contest and are projected at 66% to win the title versus 34% for Liverpool.  Note however that this is the lowest that number has been since it was 56% back on 12/15/21.

Despite the loss to Liverpool, Arsenal hold onto the fourth spot thanks to a solid 2-0 win over Leicester on Sunday..  They remain a strong favorite to keep that spot even though they lead Man United by just one point.   Man United may have put an end to Tottenham's CL hopes with 3-2 win over Spurs.  That was a good watch for the neutrals, with Tottenham rallying twice from a goal behind.  Ultimately they were done in by the third of Ronaldo's hat trick.  Ouch.  West Ham kept their slim hopes alive with a 2-1 win over Aston Villa.  That one was also pretty good entertainment.  I thought maybe a draw was a fairer result; Dennis wasn't as sure.  Villa look to be the best "non-Europe" side in the league right now.  Given the rigors of playing in either the Europa League or the Europa Conference League, Dennis prefers it that way for this year.

A Different Kind of Visa Problem

We are used to football clubs (especially the Union) having trouble with visas, the immigration approval that allows players from one country to play in another country.  Chelsea have a slightly different issue, as detailed in this ESPN article.  Yes, their credit cards are frozen.  Cash reserves are sufficient right now to allow them to meet expenses but as the article notes, the situation is complicated.    

Hard to Be Mad

Sometimes a player does something that hurts your team but you look at the player and the situation and smile because it's okay.  I saw it twice this weekend.  First, we can't help but be happy to see Christian Eriksen's comeback continue as evidenced in this letter perfect cross to Ivan Toney to set up the go ahead goal late in Brentford's win over Burnley.  That result may be enough to ensure that the Bees will stay up in the Premier League. The second one is more geopolitical as Ukrainian Andriy Yarmolenko put West Ham up on Aston Villa with this marvelous touch and finish.  Would have preferred he do it against someone other than Villa but what an emotional moment.

A Half Step Up

Slight improvement for Union on a frozen night at Subaru Park.  Our new striker duo was not dressed with Carranza suspended and Uhre out with a quad injury.  Overall, the performance was a little better than what we saw against Montreal, especially on the passing and possession.  The good news is that they are still creating chances.  The bad news is that we are still having trouble finishing.  Fortunately San Jose are not one of the better sides but 2-0 is good enough right now.  

Cory Burke got the Union on the board in the 23rd minute, burying a pinpoint pass from Santos.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment, not so much as a stunning goal but more of example of how simple the game can be at times.  Great run from Santos to get deep in the box, and pass on the ground in front of the goal to the properly positioned Burke.  Easy peasy.  Wish there had been more of them.  The U did add a second in the 58th minute to make things less stressful when Gazdag cheekily converted a PK.  The defense was pretty close to airtight, as San Jose had but one shot on goal and an xG of .3.  

FA Cup and International Break

The breakneck pace of fixtures finally slows as the FA Cup quarterfinals truncate the weekend schedule and the international break shuts down domestic competition for two weeks.  Not that there still isn't plenty to watch.

The FA Cup quarters feature six Premier League and two Championship Division sides.  No true minnows left at this point.  The schedule:

Middlesbrough - Chelsea Saturday at 1:15
Crystal Palace - Everton Sunday at 8:30
Southampton - Man City Sunday 11:00
Nottingham Forest - Liverpool Sunday 2:00

Three of these teams are not like the others.  Didn't spend a lot of time digging but I think you need ESPN+ to watch.

Just four EPL contests but most are important in one way or another and on USA.  Friday afternoon football, our favorite, is back with Wolves hosting Leeds at 4 pm.  Wolves probably don't have shot at Champions League but are in the mix for other European leagues; Leeds are still perilously close to relegation.  Saturday has Aston Villa vs Arsenal at 8:30; the Gunners will be looking to solidify their hold on 4th but Villa have shown they can play with anyone even if they don't get a result.  Actually, Leicester - Brentford is dangerously close to both teams not having much to play for; that's at 10 on Sunday.  The weekend wraps up Tottenham hosting West Ham at 12:30, two teams whose Champions League hopes are hanging by a thread.

The Union get to play NYCFC in my least favorite venue - Yankee Stadium.  That's 1 pm on Saturday on ABC.  Figure this will be a tough one for the U.

And we have the final three matches of the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.  For the US, this means Mexico Thursday night, Panama Sunday and Costa Rica on Wednesday.  A win over Panama is probably enough to send the US, although there are some ugly scenarios that might require a win plus at least a draw against Costa Rica.  Of course, we're assuming we get nothing from the trip to Mexico.  Recent history says nothing is easy here.

The games have been fast and furious so we will use the international break to give BFS staff some well-deserved time off.  We'll be back for the EPL run-in.

 

Love the South Coast

Well that went well.  Newcastle get a pair of 2-1 wins against Brighton and Southampton.  Who doesn't love the South Coast of England this time of year?  Plenty of help elsewhere.  An ugly but effective 2-1 win for the Union as well.

Who Are Those Guys?

With Newcastle up quickly on Brighton, that was Dennis's text to me.  Right, a 2-0 lead after 14 minutes isn't something you expect from the Magpies.  However, they didn't play so well after that being far too content to clear the ball with no intent of possession and careless with their passing.  Brighton got one back at 55 minutes and the rest of the match was difficult to watch.  Somehow, they closed it out for the win.  Almost everything on the stat sheet says this should have been a loss.

How many goals would Wood score if Wood would head
 like this all the time  Photo:Getty Images

At Southampton, Newcastle fell behind early and were committing many of the same mistakes again.  Fortunately, out of the blue, Shelvey lifted a perfect cross into the box that Chris Wood headed in for the equalizer and his first goal as a Magpie.  Then, more mistakes, which had me hoping we could just get to halftime 1-1.  The second half didn't start out much better. Somewhat against the run of play, Bruno G put Newcastle up with a goal that defies explanation; watch it for yourself to see what he did in this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Better game management to the finish meant this wasn't quite as scary as the Brighton game to watch.  However, once again the stats say Newcastle might have been lucky to walk away with all three points here.

Except how much of this is luck?  Certainly, we have seen some let offs where the opposition didn't finish well or hit the woodwork.  Dubravka did come up big late in Thursday's match.  Some of the xG advantage is what 538 calls non-shot based, driven by where the ball was as opposed to actual shots; well, how much of the failure of the opposition to get shots away is due to the back line of Targett, Schar, Burn and Krafth?  Newcastle goals don't feel all that lucky, except maybe Bruno G's today.  In the end, does it matter?  No and yes.  For avoiding relegation this year, it's a clear no; it simply doesn't matter how we get points.  Longer term, probably yes as you could confuse luck for quality and not improve the team as necessary.  Speaking of improvement, how likely is it that this team wins these two matches three months ago?  Zero percent right?

The Bear Has Easier Prey Than Us Now

Of the six sides below Newcastle, only Brentford picked up points this week, and those were at Norwich's expense.  Leeds fell twice; first Leicester squeezed out a 1-0 win over the Whites, then Aston Villa pounded them on 3-0 on Thursday.  After the loss to Leicester my thought was they did not look like relegation fodder in their first match under American Jesse Marsch.  They were much tighter on defense without sacrificing too much of their preference for attack.  Didn't see the match with Villa but it sounds like Leeds will be Leeds.  Their goal differential is -35.  Burnley were hammered 0-4 by Chelsea and Everton suffered an even worse 5-0 defeat at Tottenham.  Watford did offer some resistance to the Arsenal but also fell, 2-3, then got pasted 0-4 by Wolves.  The match with Arsenal included this incredible goal from Cucho Hernandez, which would have been this week's YouTubeableMoment until Bruno G did his thing.  Besides losing to Brentford, Norwich also fell to Chelsea 1-3.

By Thursday evening, Newcastle were 10 points clear of 18th and were showing just a 2% chance of relegation at 538.  It would seem highly likely that the bear will not be coming for us any more.  

Derby in Name Only

DeBruyne had two in less than 30 minutes vs United

Despite how long it took for the dominance to show on the scoreboard, Man City fairly well dismantled Man United in a derby that mostly revealed the vast gap between the two sides.  The 2-1 City lead at halftime felt pretty secure.  Another goal in the 68th minute effectively put it out of reach and the stoppage time goal made the final 4-1, which seemed about right.  The stats are totally one-sided - possession 69/31, shots 24/5, shots on target 10/2 and xG 2.9-.7. 

In the other important match at the top, Liverpool eased past West Ham 1-0.  Though not as dominant, the win was deserved and the Reds kept pace with City.  As mentioned above, Chelsea fattened up on the bottom of the table and bought themselves a bit of space in third place.  Arsenal's win over Watford moved them into fourth; though the margin is just a point, they have games in hand on all the close competitors.

Things Almost Went South Up North

Once again, the Union surrendered the opening goal.  Plus, they were not playing all that well.  They looked to be in big trouble after Montreal scored a second early in the second half.  VAR saved the Union's butts here; Mihalovic  was called for a foul in setting up the breakaway..  Real time I thought it was a foul and the replay did nothing to dissuade me.  However, I wouldn't put Fischer's call in the category of a clear and obvious error.  Also not cool was how several Union players let up for a few seconds expecting the foul to be called.  Play to the whistle, right?

The play turned out to be the turning point when minutes later Bedoya scored a scruffy looking goal after a scramble in the box.  The U-turn was completed three minutes after that when Carranza put a nice pass right onto Gazdag's foot for what would be the game winner.  You can see it here.  

The night wasn't over yet because Carranza went on to pick up two yellows in the space of seven minutes, meaning the U had to play the final 20+ minutes a man down.  Several have commented whether the cards, especially the second were warranted.  The first was a rash decision to get grabby from behind as a Montreal player broke away from him; that's going to be yellow 90+% of the time.  The second might not have qualified as reckless but probably qualified as a tactical foul; in any case, it's a challenge somebody with a yellow shouldn't be making.  The good news is they survived to bring home all three points.  On the screen, it felt more like a draw, although xG says the Union did enough.

Curtin started Nathan Harriel over Mbaizo and made no secret that it was based on his dissatisfaction with Olivier's performance last week.  Though the Montreal goal was a deflection off Harriel, I thought he did well.  We also got to see Uhre late and he generated two good chances.  Unfortunately, he didn't convert either.  Overall, this continues to feel like a work in progress.  The best news is they got the win after falling behind on the road without their best performance.

New Worst Venue - Stade Olympique

CF Montreal's second home moves past Gillette Stadium in BFS rankings of bad MLS venues.  The facility, which hosted the 1976 Summer Olympic Games starts with two immediate strikes against it - an indoor facility with artificial turf.  Worse, it's a piece of crap artificial turf.  Inconsistent and strange bounces?  That's supposed to be the big advantage of ersatz grass.  Also, the seating is about 100 miles from the pitch.  The inadequacies were no doubt further exposed by the sparse crowd.

Football Manager Imitates Life

The real Harvey Elliott missed several months due to an ankle injury.  My FM version is now out for 2-3 months with a torn thigh muscle.  Fortunately, there are only six matches left in our season and promotion to the Premiership is assured so it's not the devastating blow it could have been.  He missed a few weeks with a different injury earlier this season.  Looking at his attributes on Genie Scout, injury proneness doesn't stand out as a weakness (6 out of 20, with 20 being worst).  No, his achilles heel, so to speak, is his jumping reach/heading.

More of the Same

Another busy seven days ahead, with mid-week EPL and Champions League fixtures.  We move our clocks forward on Sunday so everything's going to be an hour later than normal for a few weeks.

Because of last week's Thursday matches, Saturday's schedule is very light, with just three matches, though all have implications at the top or bottom.  Most important of the three is Man United - Tottenham at 12:30 on Peacock.  Both teams' Champions League hopes are hanging by a thread and both have put up some strange results in 2022.  At 538, they have this as extremely close, with Man United at 39%, Spurs at 37% and a 24% chance of a draw.  A lot at stake here.

Down at the other end we have Brentford - Burnley (10 am USA).  The Bees stopped their awful slide with a win over even more hapless Norwich; they are six above the drop zone but have played more than everyone below them.  Burnley had been looking better until two straight shut out losses.   A lot at stake here, too, just in a different way.

Saturday morning opens with Brighton hosting Liverpool.  The Reds are expected to take care of business here and hand Brighton their fifth straight loss.  Yeah, that talking point disintegrated and the Seagulls have slipped to 13th.

For some reason, the schedule makers have decided to cram five matches in at 10 am on Sunday with all but one on Peacock.  Our choice is easy and unfortunate; we'll watch Newcastle take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. No expectations for anything out of that one.    The morbid choice is Leeds - Norwich, a chance to watch two sides fighting for their Premier League lives.  Leeds have good chance to end their five game losing streak and maybe get some distance from the drop zone.  Norwich have lost four straight and look ready for the drop.

Villa have been doing a lot of celebrating lately;
will there be more at West Ham? Photo:Reuters

The neutral might do well to consider West Ham vs Aston Villa.  The Hammers are decent favorites but Villa may have figured some things out in the last few weeks.  We are looking for a good match here.  Fortunately, this is the one on USA so we have a chance of watching it after Newcastle's fun times at Chelsea.  Your other two choices are Everton-Wolves or Southampton - Watford.

Sunday afternoon has Arsenal - Leicester at 12:30 on USA; the Gunners are solid favorites looking to consolidate their hold on fourth.  Monday afternoon has Crystal Palace - Man City, also on USA at 4 pm. City will know the Liverpool result from Sunday; Palace are in that mid-table space with virtually no chance of relegation and no chance of qualifying for Europe next year.

Mid-week matches are sprinkled over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Again, all have relevance in their own way.  Tuesday sees a clash at the top with Arsenal hosting Liverpool.  This is one of those games in hand for both these clubs. Depending on weekend results, this could put Liverpool level with Man City on points and possibly ahead on goal differential.  Likewise, depending on how they do against Man United and how Arsenal fare against Liverpool, Spurs may be looking close in on 4th place as they take on Brighton on Tuesday. 

Wednesday is a chance for Newcastle to really put this relegation nonsense to bed when they take on Everton.  Even at home, the Toffees are only slight favorites.  On Thursday, we could also get some help from Wolves if they were to see their way clear to beat Leeds. 

Don't forget Champions League action (2nd legs of Round of 16 knockout stage) on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Matches are listed here.  Note that three matches are level after the first leg.  Yeah, I know I didn't write about this week's CL results - click on any of the scores on that link and you can get the details.  

And of course, there's the Union.  Jeff K. and Graham will be at Subaru Park to welcome Jaime Monteiro back to town as the Union host San Jose at 7:30 Saturday evening. Hopefully, he will get a better reception than Ben Simmons.  You can watch the match on ESPN+ or PHL-17.  Still early in the season and we're sorting out who's who but we should be looking to take all three in this one.

Though we are loving all these games, the upcoming international break will be welcome.  Michael B and I have decided that the EPL "run-in" begins with the games after that break.  

More Teams Between Us and the Bear

Newcastle's chances of staying up brightened considerably after a 2-0 win over Brentford lifted them to 14th in the table.  Results elsewhere were mostly helpful.  The Union open with a draw at cold and windy Subaru Park.

Howe's He Doing It?

Pictured here with Ryan Fraser, Eddie Howe has reasons to smile

Newcastle's task got a lot easier when Brentford saw Josh Dasilva sent off with a straight red only 11 minutes in for a dangerous challenge on Matt Targett.  We know that the man advantage doesn't always pay off but the Magpies were very patient and pretty much put Brentford under siege for the rest of the half, finishing with a 2-0 lead.  Very encouraging that the scorers were Joe L. Linton and Willock.  The second half was about game management, as in not a whole lot happened.  Which was fine given the situation.  The score did allow Howe to put in Bruno G for a good 30+ minute run; don't want to read too much into a performance in those circumstances (up two goals and up a man) but the guy does seem to have an incredible work rate and shows up all over the place.  Many very encouraging signs.  

So the unbeaten streak goes to seven; the last loss was the 0-4 drubbing from Man City on December 19th. Over the last five, only Liverpool (15) have more points than Newcastle's 13.  So many things are working now and you can't say it's all down to the January transfer window.  Sure, Trippier (before he was hurt), Targett and Burns have shored up the defense.  However, much of the resurgence is due to re-energized performances from guys like Fraser, Joe L. Linton and Willock who were already here.  Some Howe, Eddie is getting way more out of these guys than his predecessor.

Who Wasn't Happy to See This?

Eriksen prepares to come on against Newcastle
Photo:IMAGO/Aaron Chown

Not completely correct that nothing happened in the second half of the Brentford - Newcastle.  In the 52nd minute, Christen Eriksen returned to competitive football 259 days after suffering cardiac arrest during a match in the European Championship. He looked fine out there, though I confess I was happy he didn't spoil things for Newcastle. He's able to play, at least in part, because he has an implantable cardioverter defibrillator.  Italian rules do not allow players in contact sports to use such a device out of concern that a hit could break the device.  So his contract with Inter Milan was mutually terminated and Eriksen signed a short-term deal with Brentford.  The good news is that he's back and we'll be be interested to see where he ends up next season.

Improved Odds But...

Mixed results elsewhere again demonstrate that the best approach is to take care of your own business.  A different result against Brentford might have meant more consternation that Man United struggled to a 0-0 draw with Watford (at home for chrissake) and that Crystal Palace and Burnley played to a 1-1 draw.  At least Southampton (2-0 over Norwich), Spurs (4-0 over Leeds) and Man City (1-0 over Everton) contributed to the cause.  

On the one hand, 538 now projects Newcastle in 14th with 39 points.  On the other, they also predict a blanket finish from 14th to 18th, with Leeds losing out at 36 points.  In other words, not much room for error for any of Newcastle, Everton, Brentford, Burnley and Leeds.  Did I mention that Newcastle play at Burnley on the last day of the season?

Tuesday Afternoon (apologies to The Moody Blues)

Tuesday turned out to be a particularly good day for the Magpies with their relegations odds improving, as The Chronicle notes here, without kicking a ball.  First, Burnley lost at home 0-2 to Leicester.  This was a match in which the Clarets might well have been expected to take all three points and they got none.  Plus, it was the last of Burnley's games in hand, so they sit four behind Newcastle after the same number of matches.  The other boost was a little more subtle.  Crystal Palace won their fifth round FA Cup match against Stoke City.  So what you might ask.  But now the Eagles have a quarterfinal match which means their 3/20 game with Newcastle will be postponed.  Now instead of four matches in 10 days, the Magpies will have three in seven.  Still not great but every little bit might help, especially as we wait for players to return from injury.

Truncated Action at the Top

Man City were in action (1-0 over Everton) but Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal were idle due to the Carabao Cup Final.  West Ham did slip past Wolves 1-0 and Spurs got all three with an easy win over Leeds.  As mentioned above, Man United only got a draw against Watford.  As the match weekend ended, Man United occupied the 4th but given all the unplayed matches, this is one tenuous hold on the last Champions League spot.   Arsenal have three games in hand and trail Man United by just two points. Except, wait a minute.  If I read this right, the three matches in hand are Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.  Doesn't sound anything like a guaranteed nine points.  Plus they have to play Man United.  The Gunners may be the favorite but they have work to do.

We Can Retire That Talking Point

Aston Villa came out of their mini-funk to take a 2-0 win over Brighton.  This was the third straight loss for the Seagulls and we can no longer say that only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have fewer losses.  Good to see Ollie Watkins back on the scoresheet for Villa.

Handling and VAR: Part LXXII

Man City had just taken a hard-earned 1-0 lead late on Everton.  Minutes later, Rodri then suffers a massive brain cramp that you can hopefully see here.  Paul Tierney did not call handling on the field.  VAR Chris Kavanagh did not feel it was a clear and obvious error.  Cue the outrage.  Nearly everybody thinks this was handling.  Frank Lampard said even his three year old daughter could have made the call.  The EPL statement afterwards was pretty straightforward - the VAR didn't see sufficient evidence that the contact extended below the shirt sleeve.  That wasn't going to be the end of it and the PGMOL made sure of it by supposedly calling Everton to apologize.

Conclusive evidence that the contact was below the shirt sleeve?

Decidedly mixed feelings about this, especially from a process standpoint.  Given that contact with the ball is probably not a pinpoint event, one would say that it was very likely that the ball made contact both above and below the shirt sleeve line.  That would mean it was handling.  Arguing on behalf of Paul Tierney, I note that though he was in pretty good position (just inside the corner of the box) Rodri was between him and the ball plus there are two other players that might have affected his ability to see the play.  Okay, so what about the VAR?  Some angles seem more conclusive than others.  Is there clear and obvious evidence that the call was wrong?  I tend to consider that more strictly than others; I thought Kavanagh had fair reason to not re-referee.

The apology from PGMOL bugs me.  First, it wasn't clear what particular aspect of the call they were apologizing for.  The non-call on the field?  That VAR didn't overrule?  That Tierney didn't go to the monitor?  Second, it doesn't seem like much support for the refereeing crew.  Third, even if you think the whole thing sucked, exactly what does an apology accomplish?  But they are the supposed pros here so who am I to disagree?  To me, this feels like another case of everybody seems to just "know" what's handling and what's not even if the rules don't exactly conform.  Probably lead to another rule change and an incident in the future that will outrage everybody.

I Think That Went Rather Well Don't You

With the clock winding down on extra time in the Carabao Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool, Blues manager Thomas Tuchel decided he wanted Kepa Arrizabalaga to be in the net for the shootout.  Other than the fact that Kepa stopped none of the 11 Liverpool shots he faced and missed his kick, the decision worked out really well.  You can see Kepa's miss here.  The Liverpool fans aren't cheering Kepa's miss per se but the fact that the miss meant that Liverpool were League Cup Champion.  (Dennis on the other hand, might have been cheering the miss itself.)  To be completely fair, we are having fun here at Tuchel's expense.  The data pretty much back up his decision.  It just didn't work out this time.

The game itself was pretty good for a 0-0 draw.  Plenty of decent chances for both, several goals called back for offside, etc.  There was only one poor take in 22 during the shootout - Kepa's.  The loss means there will be no quintuple for Chelsea.  Liverpool however are still very much alive for the traditional quad - they won the League Cup and are still very much alive for the EPL title, Champions League and FA Cup.

Speaking of the FA Cup, 5th round matches were this week.  Most notable result was Middlesbrough tipping Tottenham 1-0 even though Spurs put pretty much the first team out there.  The season continues to be one step up one step back for them.  Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea are through to the quarters; the Blues didn't exactly blow Luton Town out of the water, needing two late goals to rally from 1-2.  Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Everton round out the EPL advancers.  The Championship Division will have the other two quarterfinalists - Middlesbrough and the winner of Monday's contest between Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield.  The quarterfinal matches, set for March 19th, are here.

Cold and Rusty

The only thing that was in mid-season form at Subaru Park was the sausage sandwich with onions and peppers.  Everything else was pretty much a work in progress.  Start with the fact that our marquee signing - Mikael Uhre - was in street clothes banging the ceremonial drum before the match, having arrived in Philly the night before.  Early on, Minnesota had little trouble making frequent forays down the left, getting the ball into dangerous positions with relative ease.  Eventually, that cost us.  Though Mbaizo's mistake was obvious there were multiple sets of fingerprints at the crime scene; Tannenwald  at the Inquirer points out in this article out how Elliott, Glesnes, Wagner, Martinez and Flach all contributed to the goal.  

Andre Blake - 5 saves vs Minn and not all were routine
Photo: Carl Gulbish

Fortunately, the Union did not seem flummoxed by the goal and started creating chances of their own.  The pressure paid off on a pinpoint cross from Glesnes that Burke absolutely buried for the equalizer.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though there was no more scoring, the Union did generate some quality chances.  I'm thinking especially of the ball that Gazdag sent untouched through the six-yard box begging for someone to put it away.  Walking to the car I felt like maybe we were the better side; most of the stats, including xG, say a draw was a fair result.

A mixed outing, perhaps best typified by the performance of Jose Martinez.  He was beast on defense, dispossessing Loons seemingly at will.  However, he frequently returned the ball to the opposition with many an errant pass.  Newcomer Julian Carranza looks like he'll need some time to fit in.  The defense did look a little shaky early on but got better.  Gazdag worked himself into the game and probably should have been rewarded with an assist.  Looking ahead though, there were many hopeful signs, none more than the tactical choices Curtin will have this year.  For example, you could see how the balance tilted to much more attacking when Curtin switched Flach for McGlynn late in the second half going for the win.  Adding Uhre to the mix will increase the options too.  So, a disappointing opener but reasons to think it will get bettter.

Packed Again

Get ready for another full week.  Right now it's hard to find a match that isn't relevant to either the race at the top or the race to avoid the drop.  Also, some semblance of a return to normalcy with more games back on USA, which makes viewer's life so much easier.

For example, the Leicester - Leeds match at 7:30 Saturday morning.  I can sleep until 8 or even later and still get through that match in time to be ready for the 10 am fixtures because it's on USA. There's a full slate at 10 am.  We'll be going with Newcastle - Brighton on Peacock.  This looks really close on paper and I would be happy with a point here.  Although I do think that one is competitive, for the neutral I might suggest Aston Villa - Southampton, also on Peacock; that should be a good watch.  The other choices at 10 are a relegation match up between Norwich and Brentford (pulling for Norwich win but draw would be okay too), Burnley - Chelsea (gotta pull for the Blues even though it makes me a little ashamed) or Wolves - Crystal Palace (not much on the line there).  The 12:30 NBC featured contest is Liverpool - West Ham; though its 2nd vs 5th, the odds say the Reds will run rampant over the Hammers.

Two meaningful matches on Sunday, both on USA.  At 9 we have Watford-Arsenal; sorry but the Magpies are not in the clear yet so I'll be pulling for the Gunners.  At 11:30 I can just be neutral and take in the Manchester Derby.  If we trust recent form, City is going to take all three here.  Bonus game on Monday afternoon on USA is Tottenham - Everton.  Which Spurs team shows up?  I would prefer the one that can beat the Toffees.

Thursday make up games this week as well.  Key for me will be Southampton - Newcastle.  The Saints recent form is scary; this might be the biggest test for the Magpies since December.  There's also Wolves-Watford and Leeds-Aston Villa.  Villa should hope that Leeds new manager - Jesse Marsch - does not go with this (warning - language) halftime talk.

Don't forget Champions League second leg round of 16 ties on Tuesday and Wednesday at 3 pm.  Regular old CBS has Liverpool Inter on Tuesday and Real Madrid-PSG on Wednesday.  If you DVR, don't forget to extend the recording because those matches can go to extra time.  On Tuesday you might choose Bayern - RB Salzburg as it 1) might be a closer match and 2) should feature former Union star Brendan Aaronson.  

Last but not least, we have the Union in Montreal Saturday at 4 pm.  We are hoping this is Uhre's debut.

March Madness indeed. 

Statement Result

Newcastle grab an unlikely point against West Ham, several teams, including Man United, look to be recovering from their cases of Man United Syndrome.  Alas, one of them isn't Aston Villa.

Playing with Purpose

Dan Burn (l) has shored up the back line for the Magpies

Late in the 1-1 draw with West Ham, I asked to Dennis to remind me that if Newcastle were to surrender a goal and lose the point, the effort was more important than the point.  So often we've seen Newcastle slink into these stadiums, park the bus, and look afraid to play football.  Missing Trippier and Saint-Maximin, I feared the worst.  Not so this time.  They made it clear that they were not going quietly in the mist.  Most impressive was that after falling behind 0-1, they didn't melt away like an early snow.  Instead, they kept plugging away and were rewarded with the equalizer just before halftime; we'll make Joe Willock's toe poke this week's YouTubeableMoment; not the most stunning of goals but who cares.  All I remember about the second half was that it was tense and that we gave as good as we got.  Most of the stats say a draw was the right result; xG actually suggests a slight edge for Newcastle.  When was the last time the Magpies had the greater share of possession in an away game?

Not to diminish the importance of the point for the draw, but the bigger news was the performance.  This is simply a different side than we've seen in a long time.  They look ready to fight to stay up.  Which is good, because it will be a fight.

Some are frustrated, including me a little, that Bruno G has hardly featured to date.  He was, after all, the key January acquisition.  Check out this article which lays out all the reasons that Bruno's slow introduction is in the long-term interest of both Bruno and the club.  This makes sense, especially given that we're getting results from the current line up.  They have the luxury of getting him acclimated so he'll be ready when the things are tougher.  And, as we shall see, despite this run of good results, the relegation fight is not over.

With Friends Like These

Less help in the relegation fight this week.  Especially annoyed at Brighton.  Despite all the kind words I've spilled on them the last month or so, they went and lost 0-3 to Burnley.  At home.  One shot on target?  Thanks for nothing.  I begrudgingly note that even after two consecutive defeats, only Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea have fewer losses than Brighton.

Eff Mee - Defender Ben Mee heads in only goal in Burnley's 1-0
 win over Tottenham, an unfortunate result for Spurs and Newcastle

As annoying as the Brighton result was, Burnley's 1-0 midweek win over Tottenham was much more
harmful.  Though the stats say a draw might have been a fairer result, the Clarets pressed Spurs the whole match and Tottenham had no answer in the final third.

Aston Villa continue to struggle with whatever bug Man United had. The 0-1 loss to Watford was their third straight flat performance.  What's worse, this was the flattest of the three, as in things are not getting better.  The worst thing though is that this was three points for a relegation rival. 

To be fair, others were more than happy to help the Magpies' cause.  Liverpool struggled a bit but eventually put down Norwich 3-1.  Leeds took it on the chin, first from Man United (2-4), then Liverpool (0-6).  The Man United Leeds match was a strange one.   The elements may have been a factor.  Besides torrential rain, the winds regularly pushed the corner flags to a 45 degree angle.   In the first half, MUN built up a  2-0 lead and "looked good value" as they say over there.  That lead got wiped out in two quick minutes early in the second half.  For a while the result looked in doubt.  Then they remembered it was Leeds and scored in the 70th and 88th minute to take the 4-2 win. Southampton put down Everton despite keeper Jordan Pickford's best efforts; the 0-2 loss means the Toffees are level with Newcastle on points.  And Arsenal avenged the season opener loss to Brentford, though the 2-1 win wasn't as dominating as Gunner fans might have wanted.

Up Top

After their wretched performance against Burnley, I'd almost forgotten that Spurs did beat league leader Man City with a masterful performance on Saturday.  At the time, that seemed like a statement win for Tottenham.  Turns out it was just a blip.  The rest of the league appreciated it though. Actually, just about anybody but a Man City fan had to appreciate it.  City had come back twice, the second time on a PK call in stoppage time.  Figure that's that, a draw wouldn't be a terrible result.  Except Tottenham weren't finished as you can see in this game winner from Harry Kane.  Likely to see this one in the top ten matches list at season's end. The significance of the City loss was clearer when Liverpool took care of their game in hand on Wednesday - City's lead was down to just three points.  Their odds at 538 took a hit, dropping from 86% down to 72%.  That still sounds a strong number.  They face each other in Manchester on 4/10.

Gunners huffed and puffed and eventually
 blew the Wolves' house down

With a come-from-behind win over Wolves on Thursday, Arsenal are now the leading candidate for the fourth CL spot.  Wolves had taken an early lead on a shocking mistake by Gabriel.  To their discredit, Wolves looked like they started wasting time from that point on.  Equally to their discredit, Arsenal whined about Wolves wasting time, with Lacazette pointing to his wrist every time Sa dawdled over a goal kick.  The strategy came back to bite the Wolves in the ass, as Pepe slipped one past at 82 minutes and Sa ended up yielding an own goal in stoppage time.  A bit harsh to be tagged with an own goal when you're blocking a shot from close in; how is Sa supposed to know it wasn't on target?  I generally like to cheer on the Wolves but they got what they deserved here.  

So now the biggest gap in the table - 10 points - is between 2nd and 3rd.  At 538, Chelsea still rate highly with a 97% chance of a top four finish.  Arsenal are up to 52%, leaving Man United (22%), Tottenham (13%), West Ham (8%). and Wolves (5%) looking like long shots.  Wait, Brighton show up with a 2% chance, even after the loss to Burnley? 

Outrunning the Bear

Michael B thinks I overestimate Newcastle's danger and end up rooting against underdogs too much.  Maybe, but after years of worshipping at Our Mother of the Perpetually Relegation Threatened, it's hard not to want to see others dragged into the fight.  Retooling the old adage, I realize that we don't have to outrun the bear, just three others.  But I'll feel so much better when Norwich, Watford, and Burnley PLUS Leeds, Everton and Brentford are between us and the bear.  Burnley's consecutive wins make this even more critical.  In fact, both 538 and the SuperComputer now have Newcastle finishing 18th.  So yeah, you will occasionally see me cheering on an Arsenal to beat a Brentford, even though it makes me feel a little dirty.

Somebody Owes Nuno An Apology

If I were a Spurs fan, I would find this article in the Guardian infuriating.  And from wherever he is still cashing Tottenham checks, Nuno Espirito Santo might be permitted a wry smile.  Nuno was supposedly not up to the task of turning Tottenham around so they brought in heavy hitter Antonio Conte.  Now, after a dispiriting loss to Burnley, Conte wonders whether he's up to the task as well?  To borrow one of sportscasting most trivial phrases, are you kidding me?  This one bugs me on so many levels.  That Nuno was sacked so quickly in the first place, that Conte hasn't made the expected difference, that he's whining about it.  The last part is the most galling.

Whither the MLS?

The late start for the World Cup (November 17) led the MLS to push up the start of the 2022 season so things get under way this Saturday.  So what do we think of the Union's chances this year?

Well, we dealt away our leading goal scorer (shuhBILLkoh) and our assist leader (Monteiro).  Is that the best strategy for a side that features excellent attacking but can be lacking on the finishing?  We'll go with this is going to be okay.  Of course, this assumes that Sergio Santos stays healthy, Julian Carranza develops as expected and Mikael Uhre actually gets into the US (another Union player with visa problems - [late update - he's expected in Philly as on 2/25 though not clear he will play this weekend]).  Not trivial assumptions I realize.  As for the midfield,  I thought Gazdag worked well as the number 10 after slowly adapting to MLS; others are less optimistic (see here - also you might want to check out the reason that Charlotte will not win the Supporters Shield).  The back line is solid, especially now that we hear that Wagner is not heading to Europe; Andre Blake will continue to serve us well in goal.  We have a bevy of academy products; hopefully some will move from the prospect category into established regulars, after they get their drivers licenses of course.  Things in the MLS are so fluid predicting a placing is difficult but my guess would be a top four finish.

As for the larger picture, I have no clue.  I offer some articles here, here, and here for your perusal.  Also, the 538 rankings are here; looks like that's a prediction of 5th place in the East for the Union.

The View from Europe

Pretty good results for the EPL sides in the first legs of the Round of 16 matches.  Man City (5-0 over Sporting) and Liverpool (2-0 over Inter) will bring home healthy leads for their second legs.  Chelsea have a 2-0 advantage over Lille as they head to France.  Man United have work to do but at least will bring a 1-1 result against Atletico Madrid home to Old Trafford; that one should be tight.  Other second leg match ups that look great are Real Madrid -PSG (0-1) and Juventus - Villareal (1-1).  Since the away goal rule was scrapped this year, plenty of chances for extra time and maybe kicks from the spot.  Matches are 3/8-9 and 3/15-16.

 

EPL, MLS and Carabao Cup Final

Jeff H and I are more likely to be at Subaru Park
Saturday than our new striker Mikael Uhre
Photo:Kim Ahrens / Philadelphia Union

Yikes, this is a scheduling nightmare.  Union home opener against Minnesota is at 1 pm.  They will likely feel right at home in the 36 degree weather.  The early start time means that Jeff H and I will need to depart East Mt. Airy by about 11:30.  But, but, Newcastle's relegation six-pointer with Brentford won't be over yet.  Maybe the Magpies will have such a big lead it will be okay.  Right, sure.  Given Burnley's resurgence, this is a must-draw fixture.  Sure a win would be best but important not to let the Bees get too far ahead.

Aston Villa play Brighton at the same time as the Newcastle fixture so I won't see that.   At least Everton - MCI  is s the feature 12:30 NBC match so I can watch that on dvr later Saturday night. Wrong.  That's on Peacock.  How about a little help here?  

Wait, Dennis's dog Kaya is spending some time with us and is going to need a good walk Saturday morning.  How do I fit that in around between Tottenham - Leeds at 7:30 Saturday morning and the Newcastle match?  Even though I can dvr the Man United - Watford match (10 am Saturday on USA), I probably won't have a chance to watch it; just as well, as it's another case of rooting for the big bad club over an underdog.  No chance I'll see Crystal Palace - Burnley, also at 10 am on Peacock; I can really use the Eagles slowing down Burnley's charge.  

First world problems, I know.

Sunday will be easier.  A good six-pointer for the Champions League spot between West Ham and Wolves at 9 am (on USA, thank you) and the Carabao Cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool at 11:30 (streaming on ESPN+).  

Just one midweek match up but it's of great importance to Newcastle.  This will be Burnley's other game in hand, a home fixture against Leicester.  Can't really count on the Foxes for much help here.

What's the expression, March comes in like a relegation candidate and leaves like a slightly more likely relegation candidate?  Or something like that.

Another Pyrrhic Victory

Want a second opinion?  It was ugly too.  Newcastle get the win but lose Trippier.   Most of the contenders for the coveted fourth spot in the EPL did little to distinguish themselves.

We've Seen This Before

As in, Newcastle get a great result but lose a key player.  The 1-0 win over Aston Villa was an unexpected two or three points but Kieran Trippier picked up a serious injury.  He was somewhat of a surprise starter after hurting his calf last week.  He looked fine and provided the only goal of the match with Aston Villa, a free kick just outside the box that eluded the wall, deflected off Buendia's leg and past Martinez.  We'll make it another Kieran Trippier YouTubeableMoment; watch Buendia move around (he started in a kneeling position) before the ball hits his leg and deflects into the goal.  The bad news is that in the second half, Trippier got stepped on; he left the stadium on crutches.    A scan the next day revealed a fractured fifth metatarsal.  He's out for two to three months.  I realize that the Magpies already got a pretty good return on that investment - 10 points in four matches - but this is a cruel blow.  We have to hope that his attitude rubs off and shows in everybody else's performances.

Joelinton (c) put up some great defensive stats against
Aston Villa, including a team-high 6 tackles

While the overall assessment was that this was an ugly match, there were many solid performances.  Schar and Burn were steady at center back, Joe L. Linton continues his development as a holding midfielder and Ryan Fraser provided plenty of pace on the right wing.  The Magpies are actually four points above the relegation zone and the 538 percentage, which had gotten as high as 79% in January, is now down to 38%.  Yeah, three straight wins will do that.  Let's see what happens without Trippier on the pitch.

Help From My Friends (apologies to the Beatles)

Unlike last week, results elsewhere were mostly favorable for Newcastle.  Man City beat Norwich, Liverpool dispatched Burnley (though not easily) and Brighton took care of Watford.  Thanks guys.  I might have preferred a draw in the Everton - Leeds contest but the Everton 3-1 win was the second best choice as it keeps both of those sides within whispering distance.   Similarly, a Brentford loss would have been best but their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace means they are still close.

Whatever Man United Has Is Contagious

Things haven't been too great at Man United.  Hard to figure out how that team continues to struggle.  Now it looks like Tottenham have come down with the same thing.  And West Ham appears to have milder symptoms of the malaise as well.  All three had less than stellar performances in their chase for the fourth Champions League spot.  Only Wolves, who got a 2-0 win over Spurs, and Arsenal, who had the weekend off, didn't drop points.  

Though it wasn't his fault, Ryan Sessegnon found himself yanked
at 30 minutes with Spurs already down 0-2 to Wolves
 Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Man United continued their unimpressive run in a 1-1 draw to Southampton.  They were equally
unimpressive against Brighton on Tuesday but came away with a 2-0 win anyway, in large part thanks to a red card for DOGSO to Brighton defender Dunk.   West Ham were lucky to come away with a 2-2 draw at Leicester.  They needed a goal in stoppage time from Craig Dawson to get that. Spurs wish they had been unimpressive against Wolves.  They were awful and though it doesn't show on the stat sheet, the 0-2 final looked totally believable while watching.   

Surprisingly lackluster efforts from teams in the thick of a fight for a Champions League spot.  Oh, and Aston Villa may have caught whatever these guys have too.  The 3-3 draw with Leeds was puzzling enough but the performance against Newcastle was nothing like what we expect from them, especially after the addition of Coutinho and Digne.  You can't blame this one on still missing Jack Grealish; it was about multiple players having a bad day.  Gerrard will be earning his money in the next few weeks.  

First of Five for Chelsea?

Probably not, but Chelsea did complete the first step of the mythical quint as they bested the Brazilian club Palmeiras 2-1 in extra time to win the World Club Cup title.  The winning goal came from Kai Havertz on a PK in the 117th minute.  Can't say it was a thrilling match; Palmeiras pretty much went the full Mourinho and was mostly interested in containment and limited counterattacking.

So what about a quintuple for Chelsea?  Well, they are in the League Cup final later this month against Liverpool.  If I understand odds correctly, the bookies are saying they have about a 40% chance of winning that one.  They are still in the FA Cup and their fifth round opponent is Luton Town so they have a good chance to at least get to the quarterfinals there.  In the Champions League, they are paired with Lille in the first knockout round of 16; advancing to the next round is possible.  At 538 they have the Blues with a 10% chance of winning the whole thing.  A long shot for sure but these three seem possible.

But then we get to the biggest stumbling block - the EPL.  They trail Man City by 16 points.  The 538 table shows them with a less than one percent chance of winning the league.  That would be the height of irony - win the other four cups but not the league.  

Do You Know the Way to San Jose?(apologies to Dionne Warwick)

Somewhat out of the blue we read this week that Jamiro Monteiro was sold to the San Jose Earthquakes for various kinds of money that only make sense to MLS accountants.  Except it really wasn't out of the blue.  He was clearly unhappy here.  And, though there were often times when he was the best Union player on the pitch in the last two years, the move makes good sense.  This year it seemed like there was no effective way to have Daniel Gazdag and Monteiro on the pitch at the same time.   Gazdag can go back to playing behind the strikers where his creativity is most useful.  Plus, it probably means more time for academy products Quinn Sullivan and Jack McGlynn.  The financial side of this isn't great as it does not fit the buy low, sell high strategy we've seen recently.  But it was probably the best way to handle a player who didn't want to be here and wasn't the right person for the job anymore.  Excellent additional points about why this move is okay are offered in this article at The Philly Soccer Page.

Age Is Just A Number - No Matter How Big It Is

Nobody picked this winger 
up in the January window?

BFS co-founder Dennis F and his over-30 team -  Sportif Allentown - were in action this weekend at The Proving Grounds taking on an over-40 team from West Chester.  More gray hair and orthopedic devices than you might normally see on the pitch.  Still, highly entertaining soccer - solid skills and tactics.  Yeah, maybe they've lost a step or two but still good pace out there.  Not sure if it was just the age difference but Allentown did look like the better team and advanced metrics at 538 suggest that their 3-1 win was a fair result.  Dennis put in good work on the right wing, recording an assist and creating some scoring opportunities with runs down the right wing.

Sportif Allentown looked solid in win over West Chester

Busy Again

A full weekend slate plus four midweek matches and more Champions League.  Still too much use of Peacock for my liking but better than last week.  

Early to rise for us on Saturday as Newcastle travel to face West Ham at 7:30 on Peacock.  They'll get Matt Targett back but Trippier and Manquillo are out so we're light on right fullback/wingback.  Hard to see the streak continuing but maybe they nick a point given that West Ham can be inconsistent.

The 10 am slot is crowded with five fixtures, none looking all that exciting.  We'll go with Aston Villa hosting Watford and will be expecting that Gerrard will sort out what's wrong and send the Hornets home with no points.  Most competitive match might be Southampton - Everton.  We would expect Liverpool to handle Norwich, Arsenal to avenge their opening day loss to Brentford and Chelsea to take all three at Crystal Palace.  That last one is on USA with the rest on Peacock.

The NBC 12:30 feature is Man City hosting Spurs.  Yikes, that is not the fixture you'd choose to try and sort things out; 538 gives City a 74% chance of winning, Tottenham just 10%.  Ouch.

Two Sunday matches, both on USA, round out the weekend.  At 9 there's Leeds - Man United.  That's more the type of match Man United could use to sort things out.  They did beat Brighton but still didn't look at all that good.  At 11:30 we have Wolves - Leicester; actually this one might be competitive, though Wolves give up goals about once a month so maybe not.

Martinelli will be eligible for rematch with Wolves

Four midweek matches as the league catches up from covid.  Three on Wednesday.  We'll go with Spurs - Burnley, partly out of curiosity to see if Tottenham can improve and partly to hopefully see Burnley drop points.  The other choices are Watford - Crystal Palace (happy to see Palace take all three here) and Liverpool - Leeds.  Thursday has Champions League berth six-pointer between Arsenal - Wolves.  Weird that they face either again so quickly after Arsenal's 1-0 win on 2/10 which featured Martinelli's five second double yellow.

And while all this is going on, there's a full slate of Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Tuesday we'll check in on Chelsea - Lille.  Wednesday has the interesting match up of Atletico Madrid vs Man United.  Last week some of the CL matches were on CBS so check your local listings.  If you still haven't gotten enough, there are eight second leg fixtures for Europa League and eight second leg fixtures for Europa Conference League on Thursday.

And Union open a week from Saturday.  Current forecast is partly sunny and 40.

Look, we never said this was going to be easy.  

A New Newcastle?

Strange but entertaining midweek results; strangest of all was the Newcastle win.  Lots of interesting stuff, so little time.

Hmm, Toffee Pudding

Though I had low expectations, the Newcastle - Everton match ended up with a tasty finish.  Started the match with a bad feeling.  After a back and forth first half, Lascelles own goal at 36 minutes did nothing for the pit in my stomach.  Fortunately, Newcastle responded well with an own goal of their own, though we would argue that Lascelles header put the ball in the right direction.  Would have been one of the stranger braces of all time if the goal had been credited to Jamaal.  Ryan Fraser's goal in the 56th minute gave the Magpies the lead; this was not a pretty goal but at least it wasn't an own goal (or wasn't it - looks like it might have come off a defender).  Newcastle had been the better side but there was still plenty of time left.  That's why Kieran Trippier's goal was so special; well, that plus it was an awesome strike, an easy choice for this week's YoutubeableMoment (always like the view from the stands at St. James, Park).

Allan Saint-Maximin was at it again
Photograph: Simon Davies/ProSports/Shutterstock

So many positives coming out of this one.  Though it didn't always feel like it while watching, the stats other than possession, say this was clearly a Newcastle win.  Matt Targett put in a great shift as Dummett was unavailable due to injury.  Joe Willock didn't get on the scoresheet but was a force throughout.  Interested to see if Howe drops Willock or Shelvey when Guimaraes starts.  My guess is that it will be Willock but both have strengths and weaknesses.  And of course, there was Allan Saint-Maximin creating havoc all over the place.  Center back remains a vulnerability - Lascelles's lack of speed and inconsistency was on display again.  This is still a work in progress.  Will we see Burn and Guimaraes on Sunday?

How Would We Know?

I've heard people say a two-goal lead is the most dangerous lead.  Opta says it's just not true.  I never bought it.  But then I realized, what would I know about a two-goal lead?  First, it means you have to score at least two goals; Newcastle have done that in just five of 22 games.  Second, you actually have to get ahead by two goals.  Well, until the 80th minute against Everton on Tuesday, Newcastle had not held a two-goal lead at any point in the season.  Anecdotal I realize but Newcastle now are 1-0 in matches in which they had a two-goal lead.  Myth busted.

Just Call Him "Bruno"

Bruno Guimaraes made a brief appearance on Saturday.  The announcers called him something along the lines of gim-MAH-resh.  This clip suggests something different that I can't phoneticize.  But frankly, I could barely understand the accent of the guy who introduced the Portuguese speaker.  Come to think of it, why would I go to a Scotsman with a linguistic question?  Robin Williams (NSFW) knew better.  In any case, we may have to stick with Bruno for the time being.

What Happened to Jack Sparrow?

No more Jack Sparrow for Dele Alli

Dele Alli made his first appearance for Everton on Tuesday. It was not well received by their fans.  On the one hand, it was his first game without his Jack Sparrow locks.  On the other, as suggested in this article in the Guardian, this has been a trend.  Money quote for me is :

And yet somehow every run, every missed link and dead end is shot through with a horrible poignancy, with the sense of something vital mislaid.

I'm not rooting against him, but am convinced that though Newcastle need more pace up front, Dele would not have been a good desperation January signing for us.

I Love a Good Track Meet

Settled in to watch Aston Villa host Leeds on Wednesday with several thoughts.  One, let's see Villa continue to establish themselves as a rising power.  Second, both play attacking football so this could be a track meet.  Third, a Leeds loss would keep them within shouting distance of Newcastle.  As it turns out, only the second one was realized.  

Villa were just missing on some terrific through balls and then found themselves down 0-1 after a nice move by Daniel James.  Mildly disconcerting but I felt like it was a matter of time before the passes clicked and Leeds' defensive vulnerabilities were exposed.  And that's exactly what happened.  Between 30 minutes and 43 minutes, the Villans poured three goals past Meslier.  It was the Coutinho - Ramsey show  Coutinho got the first, then assisted on Ramsey's brace.  Check out Ramsey's first here; not taking anything away from the finish but how about that pass?  Daniel James completed the first half the of race game with his second in stoppage time.

Villa kind of lost the plot in the second half.  They also lost one of their No. 10's - Buendia - to injury after a whack.  Side note, Jared Gillet apparently has a "high" standard for what constitutes a foul.  I won't say it was biased but his conservative use of the whistle seemed to benefit Leeds more than Villa.  And, it was hardly surprising that the hacking got worse and tempers flared near the end.  But I digress.  An equalizer definitely seemed in cards.  Tyrone Mings looked like just a slightly better version of Jamaal Lascelles, first making a critical save off the line to preserve the lead, then minutes later, putting a weak clearance right onto Llorente's foot, who quickly provided Leeds with the tying goal.  Konsa got himself sent off late for stupidly interfering with Meslier distributing the ball.  Fortunately, it did not cost Villa the draw.

So I got my track meet but Villa's performance was definitely a mixed bag and Leeds managed to grab a point.  The good news is that Villa rallied well after going down a goal and showed some incredibly skilled attacking football.  They also continued to be plagued by lapses in the back.  Where have I heard that before?  Moving in the right direction I guess.

The Saints Go Marching

Meanwhile, in London, Tottenham and Southampton were putting on a wild display that likely pleased the neutrals and certainly Southampton fans but left Spurs fans cold.  Tottenham were looking good enough, even if they weren't playing all that great, after Son put them up 2-1 in the 70th minute.  Then, suddenly a pair of crosses by the master, James Ward-Prowse, four minutes apart put Southampton up.  Late game heroics specialist, Steven Bergwijn, looked to have come to the rescue again with a stoppage time goal only to see it ruled out by VAR - correctly - for offside.  The 2-3 final looks a bit harsh on Spurs, but even a draw at home against Southampton would have been an unsatisfactory result.

It's a Good Thing We Won

Results elsewhere would have been massively dismaying had not Newcastle already picked up their three points.  Burnley grabbed a point at home against the completely enigmatic Man United.  I didn't see the match but the stats suggest that Norwich were a bit lucky to come away with a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace.  At least Watford lost, barely (0-1), to West Ham.  Though not officially in a relegation battle yet, Brentford fell 0-2 to Man City.

A League of Their Own

As noted, Man City beat Brentford and Liverpool sputtered a little but bested Leicester 2-0.  Even with wins by Arsenal (1-0 over Wolves) and West Ham, the two biggest gaps in the table remain nine (between first place Man City and second place Liverpool) and seven (between third place Chelsea and fourth place West Ham).  Man United, Tottenham and Wolves all dropped points in their chase for fourth place but it's not like West Ham and Arsenal are pulling away.  All of those five have problems of one sort or another so this probably goes down to the wire.

But, Officer...

I feel a rant coming on.  In the Wolves - Arsenal match Thursday, Gabriel Martinelli managed to get sent off for two yellow card offenses in the space of five seconds.  The play can be seen here.  First, Martinelli clearly interferes with the Wolves player taking the throw-in.  As a reminder, cautionable offenses include:

failing to respect the required distance when play is restarted with a dropped ball, corner kick, free kick or throw-in

You can clearly see Michael Oliver signal advantage after than infraction.  Wolves have an attack going so stopping play to show Martinelli a yellow would be unfair.  Also, very little judgment required here; is there any doubt that Martinelli interfered with the throw-in?  Move to part II, in which Martinelli chases down Chiquinho and pushes him from behind.   As a reminder, cautionable offenses include:

commits any other offence which interferes with or stops a promising attack

Play is stopped and Oliver then issues the two yellows.  The fact that Oliver didn't have the chance to show Martinelli the first yellow before he committed the second is irrelevant.  He committed two yellow card offenses.

The pundits are having a field day and opinion seems to be divided.  Many in the camp who think this was harsh are saying that they would not have a problem if the incidents had been separated and Martinelli had gotten a yellow so he knew he was on a yellow.  So you agree it was two yellow card offenses but don't like that he got two yellows right away.  But officer, you didn't arrest me after I robbed the first person so I didn't know it was a crime so you can't charge me for the first robbery.  The player doesn't know he might get a yellow?  RTFM.  Another said no one from Wolves would have run over to Oliver if he'd only shown one yellow.  That's nuts.  My first reaction was that he's going to get two yellows and if I was a player or manager in that situation, I would have asked the referee which of the two infractions he thought didn't deserve a yellow. I heard the word "foible" bandied about.  Not completely sure what they mean but I think it's something like yeah, it's in the Laws of the Game but Oliver was being pedantic in actually enforcing it.  Um, it's there for a reason.  This was a 1-0 match, Wolves had a chance for a break with a quick throw-in and Martinelli deliberately interfered.  How is that pedantic?  It's a textbook example of why it's in the law.  Here's a thought.  The rules provide sanctions for specifically these kinds of bullsh** actions by players and good on Oliver for enforcing it.   If it deters this kind of behavior going forward, excellent.

BFS Derby

Ruh-roh - Coutinho likely to be healthy for Newcastle match

Not exactly a dream set of fixtures this weekend and all the matches but one on Peacock as opposed to USA - stupid Winter Olympics.  But, it does include a BFS derby with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa Sunday at 9.  A few weeks ago, this looked like a joke.  Now, 538 has it 35% Newcastle, 39% Aston Villa, 26% draw; I would take a draw here in a heartbeat.  Personnel available still very much up in the air.  Trippier is likely out with a calf injury; Matt Targett is ineligible because he can't play against his parent club.  Villa will be without Konsa due to suspension and may be missing Coutinho and Buendia.  Last news I saw made it sound like Coutinho would play and Buendia might be available.  Also sounds like Bailey might be back as well.  

My choice for the neutrals is Tottenham - Wolves, Sunday at 9.  Both are in the hunt for 4th in the table, both are coming off disappointing results. 538 has Spurs as big favorite here but I'm not so sure about that.  Critical game for both, especially Wolves.  Another loss in a six-pointer for them could be the end of their Champions League hopes.

There are two matches of importance in the relegation fight, though some of the participants may think otherwise.  Brentford - Crystal Palace (10 am Saturday) looks like a very competitive match.  After a great start, the Bees are gravitating to the drop zone; they got 12 points in their first seven matches but have just 11 in their last 17, including five straight losses.  They are only six out of 18th and have played more matches than any of the clubs behind them.  Palace are a little better off and a win here would probably separate them from the threatened.  The other contest of note here is Everton - Leeds also at 10 on Saturday.  There is no doubt Everton are at risk; Leeds are too, just six out of the bottom three.

Man City and Liverpool should get easy wins; Newcastle fans certainly hope so as they face Norwich and Burnley respectively.  City has the feature NBC match at 12:30 while Liverpool are Sunday at 9.  We are also looking for Brighton to take all three at Watford (Saturday at 10).  

Logic says Man United should handle Southampton at home (Saturday 7:30) but both of these sides have surprised - United in their continued underperformance and Southampton with schizophrenic form.  538 says Leicester - West Ham (Sunday 11:30) should be close but the Foxes have disappointed all year.   West Ham have been uneven so maybe on the road this one will be close.

Midweek action as Man United host Brighton on Tuesday (3:15 Peacock).  Logic again says Man United should be good here but who knows, plus, all together now, Brighton (regardless of weekend results) will go in with the fewest losses of any but Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

Plenty of Europe action during the week too.  Tuesday and Wednesday have two Champions League fixtures each.  Thursday has 8 Europa League and 8 Europa Conference League contests.  Upcoming CL fixtures are here; PSG - Real Madrid is probably the most competitive of this round.  Europa League action is listed here; can't say anything really grabs me, except to ask what the heck are Barcelona doing in Europa?

Geez, bad time to get busy with projects.  Starting to affect my viewing.