More Teams Between Us and the Bear

Newcastle's chances of staying up brightened considerably after a 2-0 win over Brentford lifted them to 14th in the table.  Results elsewhere were mostly helpful.  The Union open with a draw at cold and windy Subaru Park.

Howe's He Doing It?

Pictured here with Ryan Fraser, Eddie Howe has reasons to smile

Newcastle's task got a lot easier when Brentford saw Josh Dasilva sent off with a straight red only 11 minutes in for a dangerous challenge on Matt Targett.  We know that the man advantage doesn't always pay off but the Magpies were very patient and pretty much put Brentford under siege for the rest of the half, finishing with a 2-0 lead.  Very encouraging that the scorers were Joe L. Linton and Willock.  The second half was about game management, as in not a whole lot happened.  Which was fine given the situation.  The score did allow Howe to put in Bruno G for a good 30+ minute run; don't want to read too much into a performance in those circumstances (up two goals and up a man) but the guy does seem to have an incredible work rate and shows up all over the place.  Many very encouraging signs.  

So the unbeaten streak goes to seven; the last loss was the 0-4 drubbing from Man City on December 19th. Over the last five, only Liverpool (15) have more points than Newcastle's 13.  So many things are working now and you can't say it's all down to the January transfer window.  Sure, Trippier (before he was hurt), Targett and Burns have shored up the defense.  However, much of the resurgence is due to re-energized performances from guys like Fraser, Joe L. Linton and Willock who were already here.  Some Howe, Eddie is getting way more out of these guys than his predecessor.

Who Wasn't Happy to See This?

Eriksen prepares to come on against Newcastle
Photo:IMAGO/Aaron Chown

Not completely correct that nothing happened in the second half of the Brentford - Newcastle.  In the 52nd minute, Christen Eriksen returned to competitive football 259 days after suffering cardiac arrest during a match in the European Championship. He looked fine out there, though I confess I was happy he didn't spoil things for Newcastle. He's able to play, at least in part, because he has an implantable cardioverter defibrillator.  Italian rules do not allow players in contact sports to use such a device out of concern that a hit could break the device.  So his contract with Inter Milan was mutually terminated and Eriksen signed a short-term deal with Brentford.  The good news is that he's back and we'll be be interested to see where he ends up next season.

Improved Odds But...

Mixed results elsewhere again demonstrate that the best approach is to take care of your own business.  A different result against Brentford might have meant more consternation that Man United struggled to a 0-0 draw with Watford (at home for chrissake) and that Crystal Palace and Burnley played to a 1-1 draw.  At least Southampton (2-0 over Norwich), Spurs (4-0 over Leeds) and Man City (1-0 over Everton) contributed to the cause.  

On the one hand, 538 now projects Newcastle in 14th with 39 points.  On the other, they also predict a blanket finish from 14th to 18th, with Leeds losing out at 36 points.  In other words, not much room for error for any of Newcastle, Everton, Brentford, Burnley and Leeds.  Did I mention that Newcastle play at Burnley on the last day of the season?

Tuesday Afternoon (apologies to The Moody Blues)

Tuesday turned out to be a particularly good day for the Magpies with their relegations odds improving, as The Chronicle notes here, without kicking a ball.  First, Burnley lost at home 0-2 to Leicester.  This was a match in which the Clarets might well have been expected to take all three points and they got none.  Plus, it was the last of Burnley's games in hand, so they sit four behind Newcastle after the same number of matches.  The other boost was a little more subtle.  Crystal Palace won their fifth round FA Cup match against Stoke City.  So what you might ask.  But now the Eagles have a quarterfinal match which means their 3/20 game with Newcastle will be postponed.  Now instead of four matches in 10 days, the Magpies will have three in seven.  Still not great but every little bit might help, especially as we wait for players to return from injury.

Truncated Action at the Top

Man City were in action (1-0 over Everton) but Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal were idle due to the Carabao Cup Final.  West Ham did slip past Wolves 1-0 and Spurs got all three with an easy win over Leeds.  As mentioned above, Man United only got a draw against Watford.  As the match weekend ended, Man United occupied the 4th but given all the unplayed matches, this is one tenuous hold on the last Champions League spot.   Arsenal have three games in hand and trail Man United by just two points. Except, wait a minute.  If I read this right, the three matches in hand are Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.  Doesn't sound anything like a guaranteed nine points.  Plus they have to play Man United.  The Gunners may be the favorite but they have work to do.

We Can Retire That Talking Point

Aston Villa came out of their mini-funk to take a 2-0 win over Brighton.  This was the third straight loss for the Seagulls and we can no longer say that only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have fewer losses.  Good to see Ollie Watkins back on the scoresheet for Villa.

Handling and VAR: Part LXXII

Man City had just taken a hard-earned 1-0 lead late on Everton.  Minutes later, Rodri then suffers a massive brain cramp that you can hopefully see here.  Paul Tierney did not call handling on the field.  VAR Chris Kavanagh did not feel it was a clear and obvious error.  Cue the outrage.  Nearly everybody thinks this was handling.  Frank Lampard said even his three year old daughter could have made the call.  The EPL statement afterwards was pretty straightforward - the VAR didn't see sufficient evidence that the contact extended below the shirt sleeve.  That wasn't going to be the end of it and the PGMOL made sure of it by supposedly calling Everton to apologize.

Conclusive evidence that the contact was below the shirt sleeve?

Decidedly mixed feelings about this, especially from a process standpoint.  Given that contact with the ball is probably not a pinpoint event, one would say that it was very likely that the ball made contact both above and below the shirt sleeve line.  That would mean it was handling.  Arguing on behalf of Paul Tierney, I note that though he was in pretty good position (just inside the corner of the box) Rodri was between him and the ball plus there are two other players that might have affected his ability to see the play.  Okay, so what about the VAR?  Some angles seem more conclusive than others.  Is there clear and obvious evidence that the call was wrong?  I tend to consider that more strictly than others; I thought Kavanagh had fair reason to not re-referee.

The apology from PGMOL bugs me.  First, it wasn't clear what particular aspect of the call they were apologizing for.  The non-call on the field?  That VAR didn't overrule?  That Tierney didn't go to the monitor?  Second, it doesn't seem like much support for the refereeing crew.  Third, even if you think the whole thing sucked, exactly what does an apology accomplish?  But they are the supposed pros here so who am I to disagree?  To me, this feels like another case of everybody seems to just "know" what's handling and what's not even if the rules don't exactly conform.  Probably lead to another rule change and an incident in the future that will outrage everybody.

I Think That Went Rather Well Don't You

With the clock winding down on extra time in the Carabao Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool, Blues manager Thomas Tuchel decided he wanted Kepa Arrizabalaga to be in the net for the shootout.  Other than the fact that Kepa stopped none of the 11 Liverpool shots he faced and missed his kick, the decision worked out really well.  You can see Kepa's miss here.  The Liverpool fans aren't cheering Kepa's miss per se but the fact that the miss meant that Liverpool were League Cup Champion.  (Dennis on the other hand, might have been cheering the miss itself.)  To be completely fair, we are having fun here at Tuchel's expense.  The data pretty much back up his decision.  It just didn't work out this time.

The game itself was pretty good for a 0-0 draw.  Plenty of decent chances for both, several goals called back for offside, etc.  There was only one poor take in 22 during the shootout - Kepa's.  The loss means there will be no quintuple for Chelsea.  Liverpool however are still very much alive for the traditional quad - they won the League Cup and are still very much alive for the EPL title, Champions League and FA Cup.

Speaking of the FA Cup, 5th round matches were this week.  Most notable result was Middlesbrough tipping Tottenham 1-0 even though Spurs put pretty much the first team out there.  The season continues to be one step up one step back for them.  Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea are through to the quarters; the Blues didn't exactly blow Luton Town out of the water, needing two late goals to rally from 1-2.  Crystal Palace, Southampton, and Everton round out the EPL advancers.  The Championship Division will have the other two quarterfinalists - Middlesbrough and the winner of Monday's contest between Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield.  The quarterfinal matches, set for March 19th, are here.

Cold and Rusty

The only thing that was in mid-season form at Subaru Park was the sausage sandwich with onions and peppers.  Everything else was pretty much a work in progress.  Start with the fact that our marquee signing - Mikael Uhre - was in street clothes banging the ceremonial drum before the match, having arrived in Philly the night before.  Early on, Minnesota had little trouble making frequent forays down the left, getting the ball into dangerous positions with relative ease.  Eventually, that cost us.  Though Mbaizo's mistake was obvious there were multiple sets of fingerprints at the crime scene; Tannenwald  at the Inquirer points out in this article out how Elliott, Glesnes, Wagner, Martinez and Flach all contributed to the goal.  

Andre Blake - 5 saves vs Minn and not all were routine
Photo: Carl Gulbish

Fortunately, the Union did not seem flummoxed by the goal and started creating chances of their own.  The pressure paid off on a pinpoint cross from Glesnes that Burke absolutely buried for the equalizer.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though there was no more scoring, the Union did generate some quality chances.  I'm thinking especially of the ball that Gazdag sent untouched through the six-yard box begging for someone to put it away.  Walking to the car I felt like maybe we were the better side; most of the stats, including xG, say a draw was a fair result.

A mixed outing, perhaps best typified by the performance of Jose Martinez.  He was beast on defense, dispossessing Loons seemingly at will.  However, he frequently returned the ball to the opposition with many an errant pass.  Newcomer Julian Carranza looks like he'll need some time to fit in.  The defense did look a little shaky early on but got better.  Gazdag worked himself into the game and probably should have been rewarded with an assist.  Looking ahead though, there were many hopeful signs, none more than the tactical choices Curtin will have this year.  For example, you could see how the balance tilted to much more attacking when Curtin switched Flach for McGlynn late in the second half going for the win.  Adding Uhre to the mix will increase the options too.  So, a disappointing opener but reasons to think it will get bettter.

Packed Again

Get ready for another full week.  Right now it's hard to find a match that isn't relevant to either the race at the top or the race to avoid the drop.  Also, some semblance of a return to normalcy with more games back on USA, which makes viewer's life so much easier.

For example, the Leicester - Leeds match at 7:30 Saturday morning.  I can sleep until 8 or even later and still get through that match in time to be ready for the 10 am fixtures because it's on USA. There's a full slate at 10 am.  We'll be going with Newcastle - Brighton on Peacock.  This looks really close on paper and I would be happy with a point here.  Although I do think that one is competitive, for the neutral I might suggest Aston Villa - Southampton, also on Peacock; that should be a good watch.  The other choices at 10 are a relegation match up between Norwich and Brentford (pulling for Norwich win but draw would be okay too), Burnley - Chelsea (gotta pull for the Blues even though it makes me a little ashamed) or Wolves - Crystal Palace (not much on the line there).  The 12:30 NBC featured contest is Liverpool - West Ham; though its 2nd vs 5th, the odds say the Reds will run rampant over the Hammers.

Two meaningful matches on Sunday, both on USA.  At 9 we have Watford-Arsenal; sorry but the Magpies are not in the clear yet so I'll be pulling for the Gunners.  At 11:30 I can just be neutral and take in the Manchester Derby.  If we trust recent form, City is going to take all three here.  Bonus game on Monday afternoon on USA is Tottenham - Everton.  Which Spurs team shows up?  I would prefer the one that can beat the Toffees.

Thursday make up games this week as well.  Key for me will be Southampton - Newcastle.  The Saints recent form is scary; this might be the biggest test for the Magpies since December.  There's also Wolves-Watford and Leeds-Aston Villa.  Villa should hope that Leeds new manager - Jesse Marsch - does not go with this (warning - language) halftime talk.

Don't forget Champions League second leg round of 16 ties on Tuesday and Wednesday at 3 pm.  Regular old CBS has Liverpool Inter on Tuesday and Real Madrid-PSG on Wednesday.  If you DVR, don't forget to extend the recording because those matches can go to extra time.  On Tuesday you might choose Bayern - RB Salzburg as it 1) might be a closer match and 2) should feature former Union star Brendan Aaronson.  

Last but not least, we have the Union in Montreal Saturday at 4 pm.  We are hoping this is Uhre's debut.

March Madness indeed.