Well that went well. Newcastle get a pair of 2-1 wins against Brighton and Southampton. Who doesn't love the South Coast of England this time of year? Plenty of help elsewhere. An ugly but effective 2-1 win for the Union as well.
With Newcastle up quickly on Brighton, that was Dennis's text to me. Right, a 2-0 lead after 14 minutes isn't something you expect from the Magpies. However, they didn't play so well after that being far too content to clear the ball with no intent of possession and careless with their passing. Brighton got one back at 55 minutes and the rest of the match was difficult to watch. Somehow, they closed it out for the win. Almost everything on the stat sheet says this should have been a loss.
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| How many goals would Wood score if Wood would head like this all the time Photo:Getty Images |
Except how much of this is luck? Certainly, we have seen some let offs where the opposition didn't finish well or hit the woodwork. Dubravka did come up big late in Thursday's match. Some of the xG advantage is what 538 calls non-shot based, driven by where the ball was as opposed to actual shots; well, how much of the failure of the opposition to get shots away is due to the back line of Targett, Schar, Burn and Krafth? Newcastle goals don't feel all that lucky, except maybe Bruno G's today. In the end, does it matter? No and yes. For avoiding relegation this year, it's a clear no; it simply doesn't matter how we get points. Longer term, probably yes as you could confuse luck for quality and not improve the team as necessary. Speaking of improvement, how likely is it that this team wins these two matches three months ago? Zero percent right?
The Bear Has Easier Prey Than Us Now
Of the six sides below Newcastle, only Brentford picked up points this week, and those were at Norwich's expense. Leeds fell twice; first Leicester squeezed out a 1-0 win over the Whites, then Aston Villa pounded them on 3-0 on Thursday. After the loss to Leicester my thought was they did not look like relegation fodder in their first match under American Jesse Marsch. They were much tighter on defense without sacrificing too much of their preference for attack. Didn't see the match with Villa but it sounds like Leeds will be Leeds. Their goal differential is -35. Burnley were hammered 0-4 by Chelsea and Everton suffered an even worse 5-0 defeat at Tottenham. Watford did offer some resistance to the Arsenal but also fell, 2-3, then got pasted 0-4 by Wolves. The match with Arsenal included this incredible goal from Cucho Hernandez, which would have been this week's YouTubeableMoment until Bruno G did his thing. Besides losing to Brentford, Norwich also fell to Chelsea 1-3.
By Thursday evening, Newcastle were 10 points clear of 18th and were showing just a 2% chance of relegation at 538. It would seem highly likely that the bear will not be coming for us any more.
Derby in Name Only
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| DeBruyne had two in less than 30 minutes vs United |
In the other important match at the top, Liverpool eased past West Ham 1-0. Though not as dominant, the win was deserved and the Reds kept pace with City. As mentioned above, Chelsea fattened up on the bottom of the table and bought themselves a bit of space in third place. Arsenal's win over Watford moved them into fourth; though the margin is just a point, they have games in hand on all the close competitors.
Things Almost Went South Up North
Once again, the Union surrendered the opening goal. Plus, they were not playing all that well. They looked to be in big trouble after Montreal scored a second early in the second half. VAR saved the Union's butts here; Mihalovic was called for a foul in setting up the breakaway.. Real time I thought it was a foul and the replay did nothing to dissuade me. However, I wouldn't put Fischer's call in the category of a clear and obvious error. Also not cool was how several Union players let up for a few seconds expecting the foul to be called. Play to the whistle, right?
The play turned out to be the turning point when minutes later Bedoya scored a scruffy looking goal after a scramble in the box. The U-turn was completed three minutes after that when Carranza put a nice pass right onto Gazdag's foot for what would be the game winner. You can see it here.
The night wasn't over yet because Carranza went on to pick up two yellows in the space of seven minutes, meaning the U had to play the final 20+ minutes a man down. Several have commented whether the cards, especially the second were warranted. The first was a rash decision to get grabby from behind as a Montreal player broke away from him; that's going to be yellow 90+% of the time. The second might not have qualified as reckless but probably qualified as a tactical foul; in any case, it's a challenge somebody with a yellow shouldn't be making. The good news is they survived to bring home all three points. On the screen, it felt more like a draw, although xG says the Union did enough.
Curtin started Nathan Harriel over Mbaizo and made no secret that it was based on his dissatisfaction with Olivier's performance last week. Though the Montreal goal was a deflection off Harriel, I thought he did well. We also got to see Uhre late and he generated two good chances. Unfortunately, he didn't convert either. Overall, this continues to feel like a work in progress. The best news is they got the win after falling behind on the road without their best performance.
New Worst Venue - Stade Olympique
CF Montreal's second home moves past Gillette Stadium in BFS rankings of bad MLS venues. The facility, which hosted the 1976 Summer Olympic Games starts with two immediate strikes against it - an indoor facility with artificial turf. Worse, it's a piece of crap artificial turf. Inconsistent and strange bounces? That's supposed to be the big advantage of ersatz grass. Also, the seating is about 100 miles from the pitch. The inadequacies were no doubt further exposed by the sparse crowd.
Football Manager Imitates Life
The real Harvey Elliott missed several months due to an ankle injury. My FM version is now out for 2-3 months with a torn thigh muscle. Fortunately, there are only six matches left in our season and promotion to the Premiership is assured so it's not the devastating blow it could have been. He missed a few weeks with a different injury earlier this season. Looking at his attributes on Genie Scout, injury proneness doesn't stand out as a weakness (6 out of 20, with 20 being worst). No, his achilles heel, so to speak, is his jumping reach/heading.
More of the Same
Another busy seven days ahead, with mid-week EPL and Champions League fixtures. We move our clocks forward on Sunday so everything's going to be an hour later than normal for a few weeks.
Because of last week's Thursday matches, Saturday's schedule is very light, with just three matches, though all have implications at the top or bottom. Most important of the three is Man United - Tottenham at 12:30 on Peacock. Both teams' Champions League hopes are hanging by a thread and both have put up some strange results in 2022. At 538, they have this as extremely close, with Man United at 39%, Spurs at 37% and a 24% chance of a draw. A lot at stake here.
Down at the other end we have Brentford - Burnley (10 am USA). The Bees stopped their awful slide with a win over even more hapless Norwich; they are six above the drop zone but have played more than everyone below them. Burnley had been looking better until two straight shut out losses. A lot at stake here, too, just in a different way.
Saturday morning opens with Brighton hosting Liverpool. The Reds are expected to take care of business here and hand Brighton their fifth straight loss. Yeah, that talking point disintegrated and the Seagulls have slipped to 13th.
For some reason, the schedule makers have decided to cram five matches in at 10 am on Sunday with all but one on Peacock. Our choice is easy and unfortunate; we'll watch Newcastle take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. No expectations for anything out of that one. The morbid choice is Leeds - Norwich, a chance to watch two sides fighting for their Premier League lives. Leeds have good chance to end their five game losing streak and maybe get some distance from the drop zone. Norwich have lost four straight and look ready for the drop.
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| Villa have been doing a lot of celebrating lately; will there be more at West Ham? Photo:Reuters |
Sunday afternoon has Arsenal - Leicester at 12:30 on USA; the Gunners are solid favorites looking to consolidate their hold on fourth. Monday afternoon has Crystal Palace - Man City, also on USA at 4 pm. City will know the Liverpool result from Sunday; Palace are in that mid-table space with virtually no chance of relegation and no chance of qualifying for Europe next year.
Mid-week matches are sprinkled over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Again, all have relevance in their own way. Tuesday sees a clash at the top with Arsenal hosting Liverpool. This is one of those games in hand for both these clubs. Depending on weekend results, this could put Liverpool level with Man City on points and possibly ahead on goal differential. Likewise, depending on how they do against Man United and how Arsenal fare against Liverpool, Spurs may be looking close in on 4th place as they take on Brighton on Tuesday.
Wednesday is a chance for Newcastle to really put this relegation nonsense to bed when they take on Everton. Even at home, the Toffees are only slight favorites. On Thursday, we could also get some help from Wolves if they were to see their way clear to beat Leeds.
Don't forget Champions League action (2nd legs of Round of 16 knockout stage) on Tuesday and Wednesday. Matches are listed here. Note that three matches are level after the first leg. Yeah, I know I didn't write about this week's CL results - click on any of the scores on that link and you can get the details.
And of course, there's the Union. Jeff K. and Graham will be at Subaru Park to welcome Jaime Monteiro back to town as the Union host San Jose at 7:30 Saturday evening. Hopefully, he will get a better reception than Ben Simmons. You can watch the match on ESPN+ or PHL-17. Still early in the season and we're sorting out who's who but we should be looking to take all three in this one.
Though we are loving all these games, the upcoming international break will be welcome. Michael B and I have decided that the EPL "run-in" begins with the games after that break.
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