The Rosie Perez School of Football Punditry

According to Ms Perez, the results may not be what you think.  She expounds on her theory here.  Let's look at this week's results applying those concepts.

Sometimes When You Win, You Actually Lose

We present as Exhibit A, Newcastle's improbable 4-3 decision over West Ham.  Sure, it was exciting to see them rally from a 3-1 deficit and we really needed the points.  The game winner from Harvey Barnes - seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment - was clinical.  Just awesome in front of the 52,000 at St. James' Park.  But the cost?  Three more serious injuries.  Lacelles is out with ACL, Almiron left with a knee problem and Livramento hurt his ankle.  In the 1-1 draw with Everton on Tuesday, teenager Lewis Hall went out with a rib injury.  So we got as many points as injuries in the two matches.   

"I punched something."  Seems like a fair reaction of Nottingham
 Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo to the points deduction.
Photograph: Mike Egerton/PA

Exhibit B might be Nottingham Forest.  They got a 3-1 win over Fulham to go with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace yet found themselves with the same number of points they began the week with thanks to a four point deduction for breach of profitability and sustainability rules.  The Guardian provides details here.  Of course Nottingham have appealed so there will be uncertainty hanging over the relegation fight until that is resolved.    

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Win

Best example of this is Burnley's 2-2 draw with Chelsea.  Late in the first half, Chelsea were awarded generous PK on what Dennis and I don't even think is a foul; you can judge for yourself here (should open to 6:39).  What's more, Darren England gave Assignon a yellow, his second of the match.  Needless to say, if you don't think it's a foul then it's certainly not a yellow.  But there it was and Palmer converted the PK.  Down a goal and down a man, things did not look good for the Clarets.  An early second half goal levelled things but a second Chelsea goal at 78 minutes looked like the end.  Then O'Shea provided a stunning equalizer in the 81st minute and Burnley held on for the draw, which under the circumstances had to feel like a win.

We'll include Fulham in this category as well after their come-from-behind 3-3 draw with Sheffield United.  The sides made up for a slow first half as Sheffield built up a 3-1 lead by the 70th minute.  The Blades had looked to extend the lead to 4-1 but had a goal chalked off for offsides in the 84th minute.  Turned out they really needed that as Fulham poured in two goals in the closing minutes.  

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Lose

Well, Exhibits A and B are Chelsea and Sheffield United as explained in the previous section.  Dropping two points like that had to be devastating for Sheffield United, who are 10 points adrift of safety.  

We will add Exhibit C, Man United's 1-1 draw with Brentford.  No doubt the Bees are tough at home. Man United couldn't break through until Mason Mount got what surely looked like a game winner in the 96th minute.  Nope, Ajer got the equalizer for Brentford in the 99th minute seen here.  The point is useful for Brentford to move farther away from relegation but the dropped two points really hurt Man United in their effort to catch Spurs in fifth.

Sometimes When You Lose, You Actually Win

Luton Town lost to Spurs but briefly moved out of the relegation zone because Nottingham Forest took a four point deduction for violation for FFP regulations.  But after a 2-0 loss on Wednesday to Arsenal, we are forced to conclude that sometimes a loss is a loss.  They are now three points from safety even after the Nottingham Forest point deduction.  

Sometimes When You Win, You Actually Tie

Not sure about this one

The pitch at Spurs Stadium prior to Luton Town match
Photo:Michael B

Rosie didn't have this category but sometimes when you win, you win.  Examples include Aston Villa (2-0 over Wolves), Spurs (2-1 over Luton Town) and Liverpool (2-1 over Brighton).  Also, sometimes when you tie, you tie.  Prime example there would be the 0-0 between Man City and Arsenal, though some might suggest that the Gunners would be the happier side with that result.   

Our point - and Rosie's - is that sometimes you have to look beyond the scoreline.

An American in England

Long-time BFS readers will remember
Simon (r), who again outdid himself with 
hospitality for American football fans

The Americans got a great welcome in London

It wasn't the Five Guys from the USA, just Michael B and his wife Susan, but they represented us well.  Some things were quite similar to that awesome trip in 2016 - taking in some football matches (Norwich vs Plymouth and Spurs vs Luton Town), some awesome hosting by Simon, walking around cool English towns, and of course taking in multiple pints of ale and cider.  As far as we know, Michael drove on the left side of the road without incident and as of this writing, has not received any tickets.    

Union Still Unbeaten

Mostly encouraging signs with the Union 2-0 win over Minnesota on Saturday. Countless forays down the right side by Quinn Sullivan made it seem like we dominated the Loons, even though the match was 1-0 for the majority of the time.  They were a couple of defensive breakdowns and I do remember a key save from Blake.  Minnesota did have more possession but much of it didn't feel that dangerous.  Frustrating part was probably the number of crosses that went into and then through the box untouched; we need to see this opportunities turned into shots.  The other bummer was Blake eventually having to leave with a concussion.  We'll see if he can go Saturday vs Nashville  

You Say Tomato, I Say Tomahto

Union fans might get to see Cavan Sullivan play here
before he heads off to Europe in a few years

Local phenom Cavan Sullivan (Quinn's younger brother) was in the news quite a bit last week as the Union and Man City negotiated details about his professional contracts.   But what we really wanted to know was how to pronounce his first name.  kahVAN? KAYvon? Fortunately, we were able to go to an inside source, the Sullivan family who sits behind us at the Union matches.  The correct pronunciation is KAvin, rhymes with cabin or the start of the Cavanaugh, as in the county in Ireland.  The good news is that it looks like we'll get to see him for a few years before he leaves for Man City.  Side note to the story is that Sullivan can't play for Man City until he's 18 because Great Britain is not in the European Union.

Keep 'em Coming

Full EPL slate Saturday and Sunday and all the European competitions have action mid-week. The EPL schedule is here.  We'll be stuck with Peacock for Newcastle at Fulham at 10 am on Saturday.  We do recommend Man United - Liverpool on Sunday at 10:30 on NBC.  

We do suggest you clear your Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for Champions League Quarterfinal first leg matches.  Tuesday you can go with Arsenal - Bayern or Real Madrid - Man City.  Wednesday is PSG - Barcelona or Atletico Madrid - Dortmund.  All good looking fixtures. Thursday we'll go with Aston Villa vs LOSC in the first leg of their quarter final Europa Conference League tie.

Hard to remember the last time we didn't have football almost every day of the week. 

Return of the Minnow?

Hopefully you looked in on the FA Cup quarterfinals two weekends ago.  No, not the Newcastle 2-0 loss to Man City - that was boring.  But the other three were exciting, producing five stoppage time goals between them.

The best of the lot was Championship Division Coventry's roller coaster 3-2 win over Wolves.  They are probably too high up in English football (currently 8th in the second tier) to call them a true minnow but this was definitely an upset. The Sky Blues carried a 1-0 lead late into the match only to see it evaporate with goals by Wolves at 83 and 88 minutes.  Not to worry.  We'll just score at 90+7 to level and then again at 90+10 to win.  US International Haji Wright (more on him below) got the game winner, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nothing flukey about that one, calmly curved around the defense.  A classic FA Cup moment.

I didn't see Chelsea push Leicester around for 90 minutes while still finding themselves locked at 2-2 heading into stoppage time.  Again, no worries.  The Blues simply poured in two goals in stoppage time to take this quarterfinal.  Leicester had been a man down from 73 minutes on, managed just five shots (only one on target) so it seems the win for Chelsea was fully deserved.

Man United vs Liverpool was a see-saw affair.  United had an early lead that turned into a 1-2 deficit by half time.  Antony leveled things late with an 87th minute goal.  My Forest Green Football Manager star Harvey Elliott put Liverpool back in front in the first period of extra time.  Again, not to worry.  Rashford got the equalizer at 112 and Amad Diallo got the game winner at 120+2, seen here.  Note that Diallo took his shirt off and got the requisite yellow card.  Problem was that it was his second so United had to play the final seconds down a man.  Dennis and I were so hoping that Liverpool would grab an equalizer with that advantage but there wasn't enough time.  

Just awesome stuff.  If the FA Cup keeps this up, we'll probably be more respectful in the future.

Limited EPL Action

The league stuff wasn't quite as captivating in comparison but I do remember a few things.  Burnley took advantage of a Brentford red card to get a 2-1 win to keep survival hopes alive.  The Luton Town - Nottingham Forest was a classic relegation contest and Luton Town did what they often do - scored a late goal to snatch a much-needed point.  This week's WTF moment was clearly Fulham's 3-0 smashing of Tottenham.  Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL for the fifth time this season.  Aston Villa clearly missed John McGinn in a 1-1 draw at West Ham.  Dennis and I agreed that the point was a pretty good result given the circumstances.

I've Never Seen MLS Like This

The Mighty Quinn; Sullivan doubles the Union lead
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Apple's promo tag for MLS Season Pass works on multiple levels.  With the game behind two paywalls (Apple subscription plus Season Pass subscription), I took in Saturday's late match with Portland on WPEN.  Still too new with soccer on the radio - I can't translate play-by-play into a visual like I can for baseball or football.  The Union were seriously undermanned, missing six starters, mostly for international duty (more on that below) and naming just five subs - Donovan, Real, Ngabo, Makhanya and Rick.  Again, no worries.  A brace from Carranza and one from Sullivan were enough to see off the Timbers 3-1.

The MLS continued to burnish its reputation as a second tier league by playing through the international break, leaving many teams shorthanded.  This was especially egregious given that the USMNT was involved in Concacaf Nation League semis and finals.  So the domestic league from which the national team in theory draws its talent didn't see the need to observe the international break.  

At least they resolved the referee lockout.

How Many Countries In This Country Made the European Championships?

Alas, just two - England and Scotland.  Wales easily bested Finland 4-1 in a semi but failed to advance against Poland, falling in the PK shootout after playing to 0-0 draw through 120 minutes.  A close (as expected) low scoring (as expected) match that turned out to be perfect for intermittant napping.   Ukraine and Georgia (good week for former SSRs) were the other two additions to the championship field.  

The Wright Stuff

Doing it Wright; Haji scores in extra time
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

The USMNT was about to bow out of the Concacaf Nations League, trailing Jamaica 0-1 in stoppage time.  They were given a lifeline by an own goal from ex-Union striker Cory Burke.  Not looking a gift horse in the mouth, Haji Wright proceeded to score two in extra time to give the US a 3-1 win and a berth in the final.

In the final, the US got a convincing 2-0 win over Mexico.  Dos a cero anyone?  The first goal was a Tyler Adams'  shot from the parking lot, seen here.  That's a solid .001 xG right there.  The second was from Gio Reyna, who seems to have made up with the team.  Hard to recall Mexico threatening all that much.  No, the biggest issue was their fans (see below).

Really?

So play was suspended twice in the late stages of the US - Mexico Concacaf Nations League final for homophobic chanting by Mexican fans.  Again.  Concacaf and maybe FIFA need to get tough here.  They didn't even follow the established protocol here.  Referee Drew Fisher correctly stopped play after the first incident.  But for the second incident, they are supposed to pull the players from the field; Fisher only called them back to the center circle.  It's not going to stop unless the powers-that-be get serious about this.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

BFS La Liga Correspondent Michael B is in England with wife Susan to take in a couple matches and hike in the Cotswalds.  

Michael: We're going to see Spurs - Luton Town on Saturday

Steve: Wait, I thought Susan was Luton free

Gotta Be Something in the Water

These guys spent three days in Newcastle and two
had to have hip replacments

Newcastle managed to collect two more injuries.  Sven Botman went down with a ACL injury in the
closing minutes of the Man City match.  He sat out three months earlier this year, opting for a non-surgical rehab of an ACL injury.  The consensus is that his form has been off since his return.  The stats at WhoScored.com back that up; his average game rating in those 12 matches has been 6.34 (including a 5.88, 5.87 and a 4.56) while his average last year was 6.75.  Surgery is the only option this time and he'll be out six to nine months.  Don't want to second guess too much but that plan did not work.

Then we hear that Lewis Miley hurt his back on international duty and will miss several weeks.  How does a 17-year-old get a back injury?

I will note for the record that five of us (see picture above right) spent three days in Newcastle in 2016 and two of us eventually required hip replacements.  Didn't think much of it at the time but the connection is so obvious now.

Seeing the Forest?

Finally up-to-date in Football Manager but it has not been pretty.  Forest Green have five wins, two draws and five losses since 1/1/24.  We are still fifth but trending towards eighth.  In my defense, it's probably mostly my fault.  I go weeks without playing and don't keep notes anymore on what formations, tactics and player roles make a difference.  The game is too detailed to get away with that.  If I was on the board, I'd consider sacking me.  

The Run-in Starts Now (apologies to Steve Earle)

Glad to see that the rest of the world has accepted the unilateral declaration by Michael and me that the run-in officially begins after the spring international break.  And it gets off and running with two match weeks spread over Saturday/Sunday and Tuesday-Thursday.  England hasn't moved to DST (Sunday) yet so note the Saturday times are an hour later than we're used to.

Marquee match of the week is clearly Man City vs Arsenal Sunday at 11:30 on NBC.  The Gunners sit in first but City are just a point back.  Despite their proximity in the table, Opta doesn't give Arsenal much of a chance here at 21% for the win and 26% for the draw.  

We'll be up to take in Newcastle vs West Ham at St. James' Park at 8:30 on Saturday.  I guess the home venue gives the Magpies a slight edge here but not taking anything for granted on this one.  There's a full slate of five fixtures at 11; we'll go with Spurs-Luton Town on Peacock to see if we catch a glimpse of Michael in the stands when the cameras do their panning for celebrities.  Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace is also a good choice given its relegation relevance.

The 1:30 feature match on NBC should be fun with Aston Villa hosting Wolves.  Villans are favored at home but expecting a fun contest.  Add in a special 4 pm contest between Brentford and Man United and you have a full Saturday.

Your warmup for the Man City Arsenal fixture is Liverpool - Brighton.  The Reds could be back top of the table with the right set of results.

Best of the mid week fixtures look to be West Ham - Spurs on Tuesday, Man City - Aston Villa on Wednesday and Chelsea - Man United on Thursday.  Newcastle's descent into the bottom half of the table could be complete after Tuesday's fixture with Everton.

In the midst of all the EPL action on Saturday, I'll be at Subaru Park to see the Union with my own eyes as they take on Minnesota at 2 pm.  

Still paddling like crazy with projects but will attempt to keep the lights on and the posts coming.

Washout

It can't be good when the best result of the week for your teams is a rainout.  Not good news for any of the BFS home sides.  Well, that's not completely true as Aston Villla did manage a 4-0 spanking of Ajax to advance to the quarter finals of the Europa Conference League.  

Newcastle went down 3-2 at Chelsea and the score is a bit charitable given that the Magpies' second goal came in the closing minutes.  The stats don't look like a disaster but the second half felt like there was no way Newcastle could win.  All that trash talk about Chelsea is coming back to haunt me as we only lead the Blues by a single point and the bottom half of the table is beckoning.

Aston Villa fared worse, losing at home 4-0 to Tottenham.  The more distressing news was the straight red collected by John McGinn that will see him suspended for three games.  It was not a classic red card challenge but he did line up Udogi and came in with a lot of speed.  Villa still hold onto 4th but the margin is just two points. 

But the Union did the worst, falling 6-0 to Pachuca in the second leg of their Concacaf Champions Cup Round of 16 tie.  We have nothing more to say about that one.  It does make one think that maybe sometimes a rainout, like we got with Seattle on Saturday night, is a good thing.

No Lead Is Safe

Sides in the bottom three spent the week making the case that any lead is the most dangerous.    Burnley were up 2-0 on West Ham but ended up with a 2-2 draw when Danny Ings scored in the 91st minute.  Sheffield United were up 2-0 on Bournemouth but also ended up with a 2-2 when Enes Unal scored in the, wait for it, 91st minute.  But Luton Town bested those two, taking a 3-0 lead on Bournemouth before surrendering four second half goals in a 4-3 loss.

Who's In First?

First place Liverpool played to a 1-1 draw with second place Man City (a decent watch) so who's in first?  Right, Arsenal, because they beat Brentford 2-1 and have a better goal differential than Liverpool.  We are set for what hopefully will be an interesting three-team race to the finish.  Sorry Villa and Spurs but at 8 and 10 points back of third, hard to see you guys being in it.  Actually, eight points is the biggest gap in the table right now.

A Quiet Weekend

The FA Cup quarterfinals mean we have limited action.  Here's the FA Cup lineup:

Subtract four hours to get EST for the matches.  Viewing will be limited to ESPN+.  The Magpies playing at The Etihad doesn't look enticing; Opta says 72% chance of Man City win, 16% it goes to PKs.  Chelsea and Wolves are solid favorites in their matches as well.  Even the Man United - Liverpool match is offering long odds for the home side; Liverpool are 49% for the win and 24% for a PK shootout.

That schedule still leaves us with four EPL fixtures.  Saturday at 11 (they haven't moved to daylight saving time yet) offers two relegation specials - Burnley v Brentford (Peacock) and Luton Town v Nottingham Forest (USA); we'll likely go with the latter.  A London derby featuring Fulham and Tottenham is the 1:30 feature match (on USA as NBC goes with The Players Championship).  Sunday has a good one with West Ham hosting Aston Villa at 10 on USA.

Having done so well in Mexico, the Union head south again to take on Austin at 8:30 on Saturday; that one is on "free" Apple.  

Yeah, still swamped with work so you're on your own for Champions League and other Europa stuff.  Also, with the international break after this weekend, we will take a week off.  We will be back for the EPL run-in, which Michael B and I have unilaterally decided begins with the first games after the March international break.

My Dog Ate My Homework

Well, actually my excuse is that I've been working on a rush project since last Thursday.  I know a lot happened.  I'll get to what I can. 

Newcastle had a 3-0 win over Wolves that was relatively easy though the final score is probably a bit flattering.  Nice to have a match that wasn't exciting for the neutral.

Lowest xG for the Weekend

Sheffield United    .24 (in 6-0 loss to Arsenal)

Man United           .29 (in 3-1 loss to Man City)

Crystal Palace       .36 (in 3-1 loss to Spurs)

The Sheffield United match was over in 15 minutes.  An early goal from Marcus Rashford and resolute defending by United kept the Manchester Derby close; City didn't get the go-ahead goal until the 80th and the insurance goal in stoppage time.  United managed just three shots and Rashford's was the only one on goal while City had 27, with eight on target.  I didn't see the Palace match but the stats suggest it was all Tottenham but it took forever for Spurs to actually put the match away.

Orange Is the New Orange

Website says orange - Dennis sees red

Aston Villa coughed up a two-goal lead at Luton Town but escaped with all three points on a late goal from Lucas Digne, seen here.  However, the hot topic on the text string was the color of Luton Town's jersey.  Dennis disputed Peter Drury's characterization of them as orange.  Everything I found on the internet said team colors included orange with no mention of red.  The picture left is from the Luton Town website with no filter applied.

Oxymoron of the Week

On Sunday, a commentator first labeled the title race as a four-team chase but then added "If you're a Spurs fan and an optimist, it's a five-team race."  I don't think there are any of that variety of Tottenham supporters around any more.

MLS (Mighty Lame Stuff)

As detailed here, replacement referees will be calling this weekend's game as the lockout is still unsettled.  The article notes how they had to replace a replacement for the Miami - Orlando match after a photo surfaced of him wearing a Miami jersey.  Surprisingly, they do not cite the end of the Union match.  In the closing seconds of their contest with Sporting KC, the referee and/or the AR called a throw-in favor the Union when it should have been KC's.  Seconds later, the Union win a corner and Bedoya puts in the tying goal.  You can see that action here.  The bad call comes at about 38 seconds of the video.  I did like how the announcer pointed out that, yes it was a horrendous call but Sporting KC dominated the match yet failed to put the Union away.

But referees aren't the league's only black eye.  This week we got to see the "compromise" solution worked out by US Soccer and MLS regarding the US Open Cup.  Eight MLS sides will have their first team participate while another nine will enter their MLS NEXT Pro (i.e. minor league) affiliate.  Sides involved in Concacaf Champions Cup (eight) get an excused absence.   The three Canadian teams are not eligible anyway and DC United does not have an MLS Next Pro affiliate.  The details are here. Way to support the game in your own country MLS.  And don't trot out that congested schedule crap.  That was created when you added the Leagues Cup competition.  It's about the money.

The Ugly American

And another thing; Pulisic (r) mixing it up in Italy
Alberto Lingria/Xinhua via Getty Images

BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S alerted us to the interesting week US international Christian Pulisic had.  In a Serie A match with Lazio, Pulisic got two opponents sent off for their second yellow cards with basically just cheeky hustle (okay, maybe a little holding too).  Highlights of the match are here.  The video should open to the first incident.  This one is all on the Lazio player - if you're worried about your teammate's fake injury, just kick the ball out.  The second happens at about 2:42 of the video.  Pulisic did hold Guendouzi (for which he got a yellow) but the Lazio player then totally lost his cool.  Pulisic did receive death threats and a ton of abuse on social media, which Philip points out might be the ultimate compliment for an American in European soccer.

No Respite

Full EPL and MLS schedules this weekend.  Concacaf Champions Cup, Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League during the week.

Great Sunday EPL doubleheader - Aston Villa vs Spurs at 9 am and Liverpool vs Man City at 11:45, both on USA.  Already five back of Villa, this is a must-not-lose for Tottenham.  Man City go in just a point behind Liverpool so they could take over first with a win.  On the other hand, a draw there and an Arsenal win over Brentford puts the Gunners at the top of the table.

Newcastle are on the road at Stamford Bridge.  Not getting hopes up too much, but we've had some success against Chelsea in recent years so maybe we'll get something out of the match.

All four Champions League ties look competitive.  We'll be watching Arsenal at home, down 0-1 to Porto on Tuesday and maybe Atletico in the same situation against Inter on Wednesday.

Thursday will be the second leg of Aston Villa - Ajax Europa Conference League tie, which sits at 0-0.  

As for the Chester Philadelphia Union, they host Seattle Saturday at 7:30, then have a quick turnaround to face Pachuca in the second leg of their Concacaf Champions Cup Round of 16 tie.  That one is 0-0 after the first leg.

Yeah, I know, I left a lot out.  

The Struggles of A Decidedly Mid-table Team

Hammered by the Gunners, sitting 10th in the table and barely able to advance in the FA Cup against a 16th place Championship side.  Yes, Newcastle look and play like a mid-table side right now.

Newcastle Score Two and Lose 4-1

The Emirates continues to be a House of Horror for the Magpies.  They looked beaten from the opening whistle.  An own goal from Sven Botman allowed Arsenal to convert all that pressure into an opening goal.  Kai Havertz made it 2-0 minutes later and the rout was on.  The lead extended to 4-0 in the second half before Joe Willock got a late consolation goal.  A thorough beat down.

Dubravka stopping the PK; he was the difference in the
FA Cup win over Blackburn (Photo:Getty)

Tuesday the Mapgies were on the road to face Blackburn in an FA Cup Round of 16 match-up.  They were only slightly better against the lower tier club.  In fact, the Rovers had the better of the scoring chances but thanks to fine work by Martin Dubravka, the match entered the late stages 0-0.  Anthony Gordon gave Newcastle a lead that last all of eight minutes.  Heading into extra time, Blackburn looked the more likely side to score.  Fortunately, Newcastle got through that to bring the match to penalty kicks.  Dubravka stopped two and the Magpies advanced to the quarterfinals.  We'll make his PK save this week's YouTubeableMoment; the take wasn't that bad and Dubravka needed full extension to get there.  

Almost makes you forget they put up two weak performances in four days.

A Proper New Manager Bounce

Crystal Palace easily beat Burnley 3-0 in Oliver Glasner's debut as the Eagles' manager.   Of course, it was Burnley, who have scored the second fewest and allowed the second most goals.  And, they had a man sent off at 35 minutes.  The Clarets managed two shots, none on goal and posted an xG of .20.  Still it was a win and Palace are now 13th, eight points clear of the drop zone.

Net Two Points for Everton

Dunk's header levelled the Brighton - Everton match
and the Twizzlers Toffees had to settle for one point

A son-in-law kind of week (decent enough, but not everything you had in mind) for Everton.  On the pitch they dropped two points after taking a 1-0 lead in the 73rd minute only to see Dunk's stoppage time goal foil their plans.  The late equalizer was all the more a gut punch since Brighton were playing down a man after Billy Gilmour got sent off in the 81st minute.  A point on the road probably would have sounded good at kick-off but not so much at the end.

Off the pitch they got four points back, as the 10-point reduction for violation of Financial Fair Play rules was scaled back to six points.  Again, not everything they wanted but considering where they were, maybe not so bad.  The immediate impact is that they are now five points, instead of just one, clear of the relegation zone.  

Everton were successful on just two of the nine points they outlined in their appeal.  Initially they were accused of being "less than frank" in the information provided and not acting in the "utmost good faith."  The appeals committee basically said "just being wrong" isn't necessarily acting in bad faith.  The other winning point was that the initial penalty did not account for relevant benchmarks of sanctions leveled against spending violations of clubs in lower tiers of the EFL and the sanctions against the six clubs involved in hitherto failed attempt to create a European Super League.   

So much is left undone here.  Biggest issue is that both Nottingham Forest and Everton face hearings for additional financial violations, with a verdict on those cases expected in mid-April.  Since both sides aren't that far ahead of 18th place, any points deductions at such a late date in the season could wreak havoc on the relegation scrap.  We also have the unresolved financial transgressions of Man City and Chelsea, which have not been fully "adjudicated" yet.

Don't Look Behind You

Somehow Aston Villa are now five points clear in the fourth position.  Well not somehow.  They got the job done with a 4-2 win over Nottingham Forest (shouldn't have been that close but I switched to Brighton - Everton when it was 3-0 so that's on me) while Man United were dropping all three at home in a 1-2 loss to Fulham. Harry Maguire looked to have rescued a point for Man United with an 89th minute goal but Alex Iwobi stunned everyone with a stoppage time goal, seen here.

With their wins this weekend, West Ham (4-2 over Brentford) and Wolves (1-0 over Sheffield United) floated past Newcastle in the table.  Man City hardly overwhelmed but did get a 1-0 win over Bournemouth.

Quad Is Not Dead

Dutch Treat: van Dijk directs the winning header home

Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp got the first piece of hardware this year with a 1-0 win over Chelsea in extra time to take the EFL Cup.  A decent match decided on a header by Virgil van Dijk.  The Reds stayed alive in the other domestic cup competition with a 3-0 win over Southampton in a Round of 16 FA Cup match in which Liverpool put out a young line up that was missing many of their big guns.  Sitting atop the EPL as we head into March and poised to do well in the Europa League, four trophies are still possible in Klopp's final season with the club.

"Fun" With Math

Newcastle are currently 15 points behind Aston Villa.  This is despite the fact that the Magpies beat the Villans twice.  Without those wins, Newcastle would trail them by 27 points.  

Sometimes When You Lose, You Actually Tie

Rosie Perez explains here how the Union were able to advance to the Round of 16 in Concacaf Champions Cup after the second leg at Subaru Park with Saprissa ended up 2-3 favor the visitors.  Here's what Jim Curin actually said after the match:

It’s a win, or a tie that’s a win, that feels like a loss, really

So what happened was after the second leg, the two sides were tied at 5-5 with the same number of away goals.  So they played 30 minutes of extra time, during which the Union scored to make the aggregate 6-5.  But that hardly dents the surface of a crazy Tuesday night in Chester.

The Union entered the night with a 3-2 lead from the first leg and a big advantage with three away goals, the first tiebreaker.  They relatively quickly surrendered a PK on a rash challenge by Glesnes.  Still ahead on the tiebreaker but no margin for error.  Not to worry as Carranza got a nifty header goal quickly followed by a rocket from Sullivan after a scramble in the box.  Now up 5-3 on aggregate, things looked great.  But they didn't stay that way for long.  A goal just two minutes later eliminated the cushion.  A free kick in the 62nd minute completed the comeback for Saprissa, including wiping out the Union's away goal advantage.  

Letter of the Laws: That's a a red for Elliott

As the match headed toward extra time, the Jack Elliott got a straight red in stoppage time.  The call looked horrible from the stands.  There were Union defenders between the attacker and the goal so a red for DOGSO would have been a horrendous call.  And the challenge didn't look all that nasty.  To us it looked like a classic yellow for a tactical foul.  The challenge did look worse on replay and it was from behind, which does have its own special line in the Laws, as in:  

Any player who lunges at an opponent in challenging for the ball from the front, from the side or from behind using one or both legs, with excessive force or endangers the safety of an opponent is guilty of serious foul play.

Elliott did lunge in an arguably dangerous way.  After the match Jim Curtin conceded it might have been the right call and indicated he will not appeal the card, which means Elliott will miss the next match.

The short-term problem was that the Union would now have to play 30 minutes of extra time down a man.  Best option in that situation is to hopefully score on a set piece, which is exactly what they did.  Four minutes in, Jack McGlynn sent a low corner that somehow managed to go through the box untouched, allowing Mikael Uhre to fire a shot into the net.  Here's the goal as recorded by someone sitting with the Sons of Ben, with the attendant fan reaction we love.  Follow that with 25 minutes of parking the bus, surviving a last minute scramble that saw Saprissa hit the woodwork twice within seconds and the Union are on to the next round.

I did not see the league match on Saturday - a 2-2 draw with Chicago.  I did hear that the replacement referees did not distinguish themselves, especially the ARs.  Replays did show that they really should have put the flag up on two Union goals that were eventually disallowed by VAR.  As for the result, a home draw to Chicago doesn't sound all that good, except when you realize they had an equalizer at 86 minutes disallowed and still snatched the draw with a stoppage time goal from Daniel Gazdag.  

A Continuing Mixed Bag

We have EPL, MLS, Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League and Concacaf Champions League piled into the next week.  

Piled in definitely describes the Saturday 10 am slot as we have six matches to choose from.  We'll be going with Newcastle - Wolves - a six-pointer for 9th place in the table.  Opta has the Magpies as a big favorite (48% win, 28% draw) but color us skeptical.  TV has Everton - West Ham, which on paper looks really competitive.  Also projected as competitive is a London Derby between Brentford - Chelsea, a sign of how far the Blues have fallen.  The other London Derby in the time slot, Tottenham - Crystal Palace looks more like the end of the new manager bounce for Palace.  Fulham-Brighton might be close too.  Not so likely to be interesting is Nottingham Forest - Liverpool.  The 12:30 feature match (USA, not NBC this week) is Luton Town hosting Aston Villa.

Sunday has both sides of the table featured with Burnley - Bournemouth at 8 (USA) and then a Manchester derby at 10:30 (Peacock).  Opta does not see this as derby-like, posting City at 62% for the win and 23% for the draw, with United only at 15% for the win.  There's a Monday "contest" with Sheffield United hosting Arsenal at 3pm on USA.

Champions League matches are Tuesday and Wednesday and the other Europa stuff is packed into Thursday.  

The Union have a league match on Saturday at Kansas City - 8:30 on "free" Apple TV.  Then they have the first leg of their Round of 16 tie with Pachuca at 6 pm on Tuesday at Subaru Park.  That one is on FS2.

Ho hum, another week with six straight days of football.

Getting Ahead of Ourselves

 This is not a Champions League week, that's next week.  Instead, it's Round 5 of the FA Cup, with eight matches scattered over Monday-Wednesday. We'll be focused on Blackburn - Newcastle on Tuesday.   Full schedule is here.  

We'll be back on Friday with a regular post and new fact-checking staff.

Undefeated Sounds Better Than It Really Is

Newcastle extended their unbeaten streak to four matches but a quick look at the fixtures reveals that this is not all that impressive.  On Saturday they needed a curious (but correct) PK call and a stoppage time goal from Matt Ritchie to escape with a 2-2 draw against 13th place Bournemouth.  Other results in the "streak" also include a 4-4 draw against Luton and a 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest.  Five points out of possible nine from that set of fixtures is hardly anything to write home about.

Scharholder: Adam Smith's not so invisible hand (photo:BBC)

After falling behind on Solanke's goal in the 51st minute, Newcastle leveled things with a PK from Anthony Gordon.  The call, a result of the play seen here, took some time to unpack.  Schar was in an offside position when the ball was struck but was ultimately judged not to have committed an offside offense.  He was also clearly being held by Adam Smith.  The holding began outside the box but continued as Schar moved into the penalty area.  Though slightly confusing, it is the correct call.

Of course, Newcastle proceeded to fall behind again and looked ready to drop all three points.  Substitute Matt Ritchie picked an excellent time to score his first goal in four years; his stoppage time goal is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  His heroics allowed us to think in terms of the point rescued as opposed to the two points dropped.  Yet another example of why qualifying for any of next season's European competitions seems unlikely.

On the Other Hand

With Hodgson gone, West Ham's David Moyes
is now most likely to be next manager sacked 
Image: CameraSport via Getty Images

I felt a little better about Newcastle's draw after seeing the other 10 am results.  West Ham managed just three shots on goal in a 2-0 loss at Nottingham Forest.  That's three straight shutout losses for the Hammers.  Spurs fell 1-2 at home to Wolves, dominating possession but only managing four shots on goal.  Afterwards, Michael B announced his retirement from the EPL.  I wouldn't expect Guardiola to be too excited about a 1-1 home draw to Chelsea in which they needed an 83rd minute goal from Rodri to get even that.  Aston Villa didn't exactly ride roughshod over Fulham but at least got the 1-2 victory on the road.  Arsenal had the easiest time, disposing of Burnley 5-0.

Easier Than Shooting Sheffield United in a Barrel

Actually there is an easier fixture than Sheffield United - playing the Blades when they are a man down.  An early red card for Mason Holgate meant fun times for Brighton as they rolled to a 5-0 win.  I probably shouldn't be making light of their situation - it could happen to my/your team some day.  However, there is one aspect of this that they do have control over and they suck at it - discipline.  Only Liverpool with five have more than the four red cards Sheffield has seen this year and only Chelsea, with 78, have more than the 72 yellow cards flashed to Blades players.  Do they struggle because they are undisciplined or are they undisciplined because they are frustrated?

Not Much of A New Manager Bounce

Roy Hodgson, reading the tea leaves, agreed to step down as Crystal Palace manager.  He was probably on the verge of being replaced before falling ill at practice last Thursday.  Oliver Glasner, last seen at Eintracht Frankfurt, is his replacement.  He was in the stands, not pitchside, for the Eagles' 1-1 draw against Everton on Monday.  I guess that means we don't really look for the new manager bounce until their next match.  The point was enough for Everton to move out of the bottom three but only on goal differential.  That Luton Town lost on Sunday to Man United, then again on Wednesday to Liverpool clearly helped the Toffees.  

Gardening Leave

I confess that I was not familiar with this term, defined here.  In short, it's paying a key executive not to work as a way to keep them from defecting, presumably with key skills and information, to a competitor.  My introduction to the term comes from the situation between Newcastle and their Sporting Director Dan Ashworth, explained in more detail here.  Ashworth wants to go Man United.  Newcastle are willing to pay him his £1.5 million annual salary for another 20 months just to keep from taking the job, most likely in hopes of at least getting a sizable payment from Man United to allow the transfer.  I don't recall this being an option when I was working full-time.

Letting It Ride

ennui

noun

: a feeling of weariness and dissatisfaction : BOREDOM

The MLS season opens this Saturday (actually it opened on Wednesday with Miami hosting Real Salt Lake).  Forgive me if I'm not breathless with excitement.  Let's see, Apple's MLS Season Pass is back with its added monthly fee, poor production values (not enough cameras, poor commentary, lousy graphics, etc.) and interference with the league operations (scheduling, playoff format, etc.).  The league has not reached an agreement with the Professional Referees Organization and therefore will lock out union referees and seek to use "nonbargaining unit officials."  And currently, MLS participation in the US Open Cup is up in the air.  

Then there's our home side - the Philadelphia Union.  After a decent but by no means great season, the team is basically letting it ride with last year's line up.  The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald has a great explanation of the situation here.  On the one hand, Tannenwald notes the Union have made the playoffs six straight years and have the most points of any team in MLS over that period.  He further notes that the team has some young talent ready to go.  But the big question is will we see much of them?  Last year's regulars as a unit are too old to expect signficant improvements.  If that's the case, how do we expect to do better?  The experts writing on the MLS website have the Union finishing sixth. The summary from The Atheltic preview:

One good scenario: Riding the same core group of players that has pushed them to the brink of the promised land in year’s past, the Union finally takes that final step and wins their first MLS Cup.

One bad scenario: Philly finally gets punished for a now decade-plus-long lack of financial ambition, and the fact that they have rarely, if ever, had an upper-echelon, elite playmaker — the type of player necessary to take that final step.

X-factor: The continued growth of the club’s young players, like Quinn Sullivan and Jack McGlynn — isn’t this always the story with Philly?

The six writers at The Athletic have the U finishing somewhere between 1st and 7th, with the average working out to 4th place.  Right, so this team could find the magic of two years ago or they could roll the dice with the same crew again and crap out.  Maybe if the former happens there'll be excitement but the whole MLS product right now works against. that.  

A Little Bit of Everything

Lots to choose from this week.  We have the EFL Cup Final featuring Liverpool and Chelsea on Sunday at 10 am on ESPN+.  Opta has Liverpool as a big favorite, as do the oddsmakers (roughly in the 70/30 range).  

The EPL calendar is truncated because of that Cup Final.  There is no 7:30 game, which is fine by us.  Four choices at 10.  We'll be going with Aston Villa hosting Nottingham Forest (it's also the USA game).  Crystal Palace - Burnley is a match with relegation implications.  Everton seem to play everybody tough these days so they might give host Brighton a tough time.  Man United likely won't be troubled by Fulham at home.  The NBC 12:30 feature match - Bournmouth hosting Man City - doesn't have much a feature quality to it.  Then we get a special horror show at 3 pm, as Newcastle travel to Arsenal.  The last time Newcastle won this fixture was 11/7/10. Since then they have lost 11 and drawn one.  

Just one match on Sunday as Wolves get their shot to take points off of Sheffield United.  On Monday, West Ham will try to score for the first time weeks as they host Brentford.  

Mid-week we have the second legs of Champions League Round of 16 ties.  Man City bring a 3-1 lead to the Etihad against Copenhagen so they have every expectation of advancing.  

As for the Union, they will open the season at Saturday at home against Chicago.  Can't attend this one and it's on MLS Season Pass so WPEN radio is my only option here.  The U also have a Concacaf Champions Cup match on Tuesday night which we will attend.  This is the second leg against Saprissa. Thanks to a hat trick by Carranza on Tuesday, the Union bring a 3-2 lead home for that one.  

Still plenty to keep us busy.