My Dog Ate My Homework

Well, actually my excuse is that I've been working on a rush project since last Thursday.  I know a lot happened.  I'll get to what I can. 

Newcastle had a 3-0 win over Wolves that was relatively easy though the final score is probably a bit flattering.  Nice to have a match that wasn't exciting for the neutral.

Lowest xG for the Weekend

Sheffield United    .24 (in 6-0 loss to Arsenal)

Man United           .29 (in 3-1 loss to Man City)

Crystal Palace       .36 (in 3-1 loss to Spurs)

The Sheffield United match was over in 15 minutes.  An early goal from Marcus Rashford and resolute defending by United kept the Manchester Derby close; City didn't get the go-ahead goal until the 80th and the insurance goal in stoppage time.  United managed just three shots and Rashford's was the only one on goal while City had 27, with eight on target.  I didn't see the Palace match but the stats suggest it was all Tottenham but it took forever for Spurs to actually put the match away.

Orange Is the New Orange

Website says orange - Dennis sees red

Aston Villa coughed up a two-goal lead at Luton Town but escaped with all three points on a late goal from Lucas Digne, seen here.  However, the hot topic on the text string was the color of Luton Town's jersey.  Dennis disputed Peter Drury's characterization of them as orange.  Everything I found on the internet said team colors included orange with no mention of red.  The picture left is from the Luton Town website with no filter applied.

Oxymoron of the Week

On Sunday, a commentator first labeled the title race as a four-team chase but then added "If you're a Spurs fan and an optimist, it's a five-team race."  I don't think there are any of that variety of Tottenham supporters around any more.

MLS (Mighty Lame Stuff)

As detailed here, replacement referees will be calling this weekend's game as the lockout is still unsettled.  The article notes how they had to replace a replacement for the Miami - Orlando match after a photo surfaced of him wearing a Miami jersey.  Surprisingly, they do not cite the end of the Union match.  In the closing seconds of their contest with Sporting KC, the referee and/or the AR called a throw-in favor the Union when it should have been KC's.  Seconds later, the Union win a corner and Bedoya puts in the tying goal.  You can see that action here.  The bad call comes at about 38 seconds of the video.  I did like how the announcer pointed out that, yes it was a horrendous call but Sporting KC dominated the match yet failed to put the Union away.

But referees aren't the league's only black eye.  This week we got to see the "compromise" solution worked out by US Soccer and MLS regarding the US Open Cup.  Eight MLS sides will have their first team participate while another nine will enter their MLS NEXT Pro (i.e. minor league) affiliate.  Sides involved in Concacaf Champions Cup (eight) get an excused absence.   The three Canadian teams are not eligible anyway and DC United does not have an MLS Next Pro affiliate.  The details are here. Way to support the game in your own country MLS.  And don't trot out that congested schedule crap.  That was created when you added the Leagues Cup competition.  It's about the money.

The Ugly American

And another thing; Pulisic (r) mixing it up in Italy
Alberto Lingria/Xinhua via Getty Images

BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S alerted us to the interesting week US international Christian Pulisic had.  In a Serie A match with Lazio, Pulisic got two opponents sent off for their second yellow cards with basically just cheeky hustle (okay, maybe a little holding too).  Highlights of the match are here.  The video should open to the first incident.  This one is all on the Lazio player - if you're worried about your teammate's fake injury, just kick the ball out.  The second happens at about 2:42 of the video.  Pulisic did hold Guendouzi (for which he got a yellow) but the Lazio player then totally lost his cool.  Pulisic did receive death threats and a ton of abuse on social media, which Philip points out might be the ultimate compliment for an American in European soccer.

No Respite

Full EPL and MLS schedules this weekend.  Concacaf Champions Cup, Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League during the week.

Great Sunday EPL doubleheader - Aston Villa vs Spurs at 9 am and Liverpool vs Man City at 11:45, both on USA.  Already five back of Villa, this is a must-not-lose for Tottenham.  Man City go in just a point behind Liverpool so they could take over first with a win.  On the other hand, a draw there and an Arsenal win over Brentford puts the Gunners at the top of the table.

Newcastle are on the road at Stamford Bridge.  Not getting hopes up too much, but we've had some success against Chelsea in recent years so maybe we'll get something out of the match.

All four Champions League ties look competitive.  We'll be watching Arsenal at home, down 0-1 to Porto on Tuesday and maybe Atletico in the same situation against Inter on Wednesday.

Thursday will be the second leg of Aston Villa - Ajax Europa Conference League tie, which sits at 0-0.  

As for the Chester Philadelphia Union, they host Seattle Saturday at 7:30, then have a quick turnaround to face Pachuca in the second leg of their Concacaf Champions Cup Round of 16 tie.  That one is 0-0 after the first leg.

Yeah, I know, I left a lot out.  

The Struggles of A Decidedly Mid-table Team

Hammered by the Gunners, sitting 10th in the table and barely able to advance in the FA Cup against a 16th place Championship side.  Yes, Newcastle look and play like a mid-table side right now.

Newcastle Score Two and Lose 4-1

The Emirates continues to be a House of Horror for the Magpies.  They looked beaten from the opening whistle.  An own goal from Sven Botman allowed Arsenal to convert all that pressure into an opening goal.  Kai Havertz made it 2-0 minutes later and the rout was on.  The lead extended to 4-0 in the second half before Joe Willock got a late consolation goal.  A thorough beat down.

Dubravka stopping the PK; he was the difference in the
FA Cup win over Blackburn (Photo:Getty)

Tuesday the Mapgies were on the road to face Blackburn in an FA Cup Round of 16 match-up.  They were only slightly better against the lower tier club.  In fact, the Rovers had the better of the scoring chances but thanks to fine work by Martin Dubravka, the match entered the late stages 0-0.  Anthony Gordon gave Newcastle a lead that last all of eight minutes.  Heading into extra time, Blackburn looked the more likely side to score.  Fortunately, Newcastle got through that to bring the match to penalty kicks.  Dubravka stopped two and the Magpies advanced to the quarterfinals.  We'll make his PK save this week's YouTubeableMoment; the take wasn't that bad and Dubravka needed full extension to get there.  

Almost makes you forget they put up two weak performances in four days.

A Proper New Manager Bounce

Crystal Palace easily beat Burnley 3-0 in Oliver Glasner's debut as the Eagles' manager.   Of course, it was Burnley, who have scored the second fewest and allowed the second most goals.  And, they had a man sent off at 35 minutes.  The Clarets managed two shots, none on goal and posted an xG of .20.  Still it was a win and Palace are now 13th, eight points clear of the drop zone.

Net Two Points for Everton

Dunk's header levelled the Brighton - Everton match
and the Twizzlers Toffees had to settle for one point

A son-in-law kind of week (decent enough, but not everything you had in mind) for Everton.  On the pitch they dropped two points after taking a 1-0 lead in the 73rd minute only to see Dunk's stoppage time goal foil their plans.  The late equalizer was all the more a gut punch since Brighton were playing down a man after Billy Gilmour got sent off in the 81st minute.  A point on the road probably would have sounded good at kick-off but not so much at the end.

Off the pitch they got four points back, as the 10-point reduction for violation of Financial Fair Play rules was scaled back to six points.  Again, not everything they wanted but considering where they were, maybe not so bad.  The immediate impact is that they are now five points, instead of just one, clear of the relegation zone.  

Everton were successful on just two of the nine points they outlined in their appeal.  Initially they were accused of being "less than frank" in the information provided and not acting in the "utmost good faith."  The appeals committee basically said "just being wrong" isn't necessarily acting in bad faith.  The other winning point was that the initial penalty did not account for relevant benchmarks of sanctions leveled against spending violations of clubs in lower tiers of the EFL and the sanctions against the six clubs involved in hitherto failed attempt to create a European Super League.   

So much is left undone here.  Biggest issue is that both Nottingham Forest and Everton face hearings for additional financial violations, with a verdict on those cases expected in mid-April.  Since both sides aren't that far ahead of 18th place, any points deductions at such a late date in the season could wreak havoc on the relegation scrap.  We also have the unresolved financial transgressions of Man City and Chelsea, which have not been fully "adjudicated" yet.

Don't Look Behind You

Somehow Aston Villa are now five points clear in the fourth position.  Well not somehow.  They got the job done with a 4-2 win over Nottingham Forest (shouldn't have been that close but I switched to Brighton - Everton when it was 3-0 so that's on me) while Man United were dropping all three at home in a 1-2 loss to Fulham. Harry Maguire looked to have rescued a point for Man United with an 89th minute goal but Alex Iwobi stunned everyone with a stoppage time goal, seen here.

With their wins this weekend, West Ham (4-2 over Brentford) and Wolves (1-0 over Sheffield United) floated past Newcastle in the table.  Man City hardly overwhelmed but did get a 1-0 win over Bournemouth.

Quad Is Not Dead

Dutch Treat: van Dijk directs the winning header home

Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp got the first piece of hardware this year with a 1-0 win over Chelsea in extra time to take the EFL Cup.  A decent match decided on a header by Virgil van Dijk.  The Reds stayed alive in the other domestic cup competition with a 3-0 win over Southampton in a Round of 16 FA Cup match in which Liverpool put out a young line up that was missing many of their big guns.  Sitting atop the EPL as we head into March and poised to do well in the Europa League, four trophies are still possible in Klopp's final season with the club.

"Fun" With Math

Newcastle are currently 15 points behind Aston Villa.  This is despite the fact that the Magpies beat the Villans twice.  Without those wins, Newcastle would trail them by 27 points.  

Sometimes When You Lose, You Actually Tie

Rosie Perez explains here how the Union were able to advance to the Round of 16 in Concacaf Champions Cup after the second leg at Subaru Park with Saprissa ended up 2-3 favor the visitors.  Here's what Jim Curin actually said after the match:

It’s a win, or a tie that’s a win, that feels like a loss, really

So what happened was after the second leg, the two sides were tied at 5-5 with the same number of away goals.  So they played 30 minutes of extra time, during which the Union scored to make the aggregate 6-5.  But that hardly dents the surface of a crazy Tuesday night in Chester.

The Union entered the night with a 3-2 lead from the first leg and a big advantage with three away goals, the first tiebreaker.  They relatively quickly surrendered a PK on a rash challenge by Glesnes.  Still ahead on the tiebreaker but no margin for error.  Not to worry as Carranza got a nifty header goal quickly followed by a rocket from Sullivan after a scramble in the box.  Now up 5-3 on aggregate, things looked great.  But they didn't stay that way for long.  A goal just two minutes later eliminated the cushion.  A free kick in the 62nd minute completed the comeback for Saprissa, including wiping out the Union's away goal advantage.  

Letter of the Laws: That's a a red for Elliott

As the match headed toward extra time, the Jack Elliott got a straight red in stoppage time.  The call looked horrible from the stands.  There were Union defenders between the attacker and the goal so a red for DOGSO would have been a horrendous call.  And the challenge didn't look all that nasty.  To us it looked like a classic yellow for a tactical foul.  The challenge did look worse on replay and it was from behind, which does have its own special line in the Laws, as in:  

Any player who lunges at an opponent in challenging for the ball from the front, from the side or from behind using one or both legs, with excessive force or endangers the safety of an opponent is guilty of serious foul play.

Elliott did lunge in an arguably dangerous way.  After the match Jim Curtin conceded it might have been the right call and indicated he will not appeal the card, which means Elliott will miss the next match.

The short-term problem was that the Union would now have to play 30 minutes of extra time down a man.  Best option in that situation is to hopefully score on a set piece, which is exactly what they did.  Four minutes in, Jack McGlynn sent a low corner that somehow managed to go through the box untouched, allowing Mikael Uhre to fire a shot into the net.  Here's the goal as recorded by someone sitting with the Sons of Ben, with the attendant fan reaction we love.  Follow that with 25 minutes of parking the bus, surviving a last minute scramble that saw Saprissa hit the woodwork twice within seconds and the Union are on to the next round.

I did not see the league match on Saturday - a 2-2 draw with Chicago.  I did hear that the replacement referees did not distinguish themselves, especially the ARs.  Replays did show that they really should have put the flag up on two Union goals that were eventually disallowed by VAR.  As for the result, a home draw to Chicago doesn't sound all that good, except when you realize they had an equalizer at 86 minutes disallowed and still snatched the draw with a stoppage time goal from Daniel Gazdag.  

A Continuing Mixed Bag

We have EPL, MLS, Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League and Concacaf Champions League piled into the next week.  

Piled in definitely describes the Saturday 10 am slot as we have six matches to choose from.  We'll be going with Newcastle - Wolves - a six-pointer for 9th place in the table.  Opta has the Magpies as a big favorite (48% win, 28% draw) but color us skeptical.  TV has Everton - West Ham, which on paper looks really competitive.  Also projected as competitive is a London Derby between Brentford - Chelsea, a sign of how far the Blues have fallen.  The other London Derby in the time slot, Tottenham - Crystal Palace looks more like the end of the new manager bounce for Palace.  Fulham-Brighton might be close too.  Not so likely to be interesting is Nottingham Forest - Liverpool.  The 12:30 feature match (USA, not NBC this week) is Luton Town hosting Aston Villa.

Sunday has both sides of the table featured with Burnley - Bournemouth at 8 (USA) and then a Manchester derby at 10:30 (Peacock).  Opta does not see this as derby-like, posting City at 62% for the win and 23% for the draw, with United only at 15% for the win.  There's a Monday "contest" with Sheffield United hosting Arsenal at 3pm on USA.

Champions League matches are Tuesday and Wednesday and the other Europa stuff is packed into Thursday.  

The Union have a league match on Saturday at Kansas City - 8:30 on "free" Apple TV.  Then they have the first leg of their Round of 16 tie with Pachuca at 6 pm on Tuesday at Subaru Park.  That one is on FS2.

Ho hum, another week with six straight days of football.

Getting Ahead of Ourselves

 This is not a Champions League week, that's next week.  Instead, it's Round 5 of the FA Cup, with eight matches scattered over Monday-Wednesday. We'll be focused on Blackburn - Newcastle on Tuesday.   Full schedule is here.  

We'll be back on Friday with a regular post and new fact-checking staff.

Undefeated Sounds Better Than It Really Is

Newcastle extended their unbeaten streak to four matches but a quick look at the fixtures reveals that this is not all that impressive.  On Saturday they needed a curious (but correct) PK call and a stoppage time goal from Matt Ritchie to escape with a 2-2 draw against 13th place Bournemouth.  Other results in the "streak" also include a 4-4 draw against Luton and a 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest.  Five points out of possible nine from that set of fixtures is hardly anything to write home about.

Scharholder: Adam Smith's not so invisible hand (photo:BBC)

After falling behind on Solanke's goal in the 51st minute, Newcastle leveled things with a PK from Anthony Gordon.  The call, a result of the play seen here, took some time to unpack.  Schar was in an offside position when the ball was struck but was ultimately judged not to have committed an offside offense.  He was also clearly being held by Adam Smith.  The holding began outside the box but continued as Schar moved into the penalty area.  Though slightly confusing, it is the correct call.

Of course, Newcastle proceeded to fall behind again and looked ready to drop all three points.  Substitute Matt Ritchie picked an excellent time to score his first goal in four years; his stoppage time goal is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  His heroics allowed us to think in terms of the point rescued as opposed to the two points dropped.  Yet another example of why qualifying for any of next season's European competitions seems unlikely.

On the Other Hand

With Hodgson gone, West Ham's David Moyes
is now most likely to be next manager sacked 
Image: CameraSport via Getty Images

I felt a little better about Newcastle's draw after seeing the other 10 am results.  West Ham managed just three shots on goal in a 2-0 loss at Nottingham Forest.  That's three straight shutout losses for the Hammers.  Spurs fell 1-2 at home to Wolves, dominating possession but only managing four shots on goal.  Afterwards, Michael B announced his retirement from the EPL.  I wouldn't expect Guardiola to be too excited about a 1-1 home draw to Chelsea in which they needed an 83rd minute goal from Rodri to get even that.  Aston Villa didn't exactly ride roughshod over Fulham but at least got the 1-2 victory on the road.  Arsenal had the easiest time, disposing of Burnley 5-0.

Easier Than Shooting Sheffield United in a Barrel

Actually there is an easier fixture than Sheffield United - playing the Blades when they are a man down.  An early red card for Mason Holgate meant fun times for Brighton as they rolled to a 5-0 win.  I probably shouldn't be making light of their situation - it could happen to my/your team some day.  However, there is one aspect of this that they do have control over and they suck at it - discipline.  Only Liverpool with five have more than the four red cards Sheffield has seen this year and only Chelsea, with 78, have more than the 72 yellow cards flashed to Blades players.  Do they struggle because they are undisciplined or are they undisciplined because they are frustrated?

Not Much of A New Manager Bounce

Roy Hodgson, reading the tea leaves, agreed to step down as Crystal Palace manager.  He was probably on the verge of being replaced before falling ill at practice last Thursday.  Oliver Glasner, last seen at Eintracht Frankfurt, is his replacement.  He was in the stands, not pitchside, for the Eagles' 1-1 draw against Everton on Monday.  I guess that means we don't really look for the new manager bounce until their next match.  The point was enough for Everton to move out of the bottom three but only on goal differential.  That Luton Town lost on Sunday to Man United, then again on Wednesday to Liverpool clearly helped the Toffees.  

Gardening Leave

I confess that I was not familiar with this term, defined here.  In short, it's paying a key executive not to work as a way to keep them from defecting, presumably with key skills and information, to a competitor.  My introduction to the term comes from the situation between Newcastle and their Sporting Director Dan Ashworth, explained in more detail here.  Ashworth wants to go Man United.  Newcastle are willing to pay him his £1.5 million annual salary for another 20 months just to keep from taking the job, most likely in hopes of at least getting a sizable payment from Man United to allow the transfer.  I don't recall this being an option when I was working full-time.

Letting It Ride

ennui

noun

: a feeling of weariness and dissatisfaction : BOREDOM

The MLS season opens this Saturday (actually it opened on Wednesday with Miami hosting Real Salt Lake).  Forgive me if I'm not breathless with excitement.  Let's see, Apple's MLS Season Pass is back with its added monthly fee, poor production values (not enough cameras, poor commentary, lousy graphics, etc.) and interference with the league operations (scheduling, playoff format, etc.).  The league has not reached an agreement with the Professional Referees Organization and therefore will lock out union referees and seek to use "nonbargaining unit officials."  And currently, MLS participation in the US Open Cup is up in the air.  

Then there's our home side - the Philadelphia Union.  After a decent but by no means great season, the team is basically letting it ride with last year's line up.  The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald has a great explanation of the situation here.  On the one hand, Tannenwald notes the Union have made the playoffs six straight years and have the most points of any team in MLS over that period.  He further notes that the team has some young talent ready to go.  But the big question is will we see much of them?  Last year's regulars as a unit are too old to expect signficant improvements.  If that's the case, how do we expect to do better?  The experts writing on the MLS website have the Union finishing sixth. The summary from The Atheltic preview:

One good scenario: Riding the same core group of players that has pushed them to the brink of the promised land in year’s past, the Union finally takes that final step and wins their first MLS Cup.

One bad scenario: Philly finally gets punished for a now decade-plus-long lack of financial ambition, and the fact that they have rarely, if ever, had an upper-echelon, elite playmaker — the type of player necessary to take that final step.

X-factor: The continued growth of the club’s young players, like Quinn Sullivan and Jack McGlynn — isn’t this always the story with Philly?

The six writers at The Athletic have the U finishing somewhere between 1st and 7th, with the average working out to 4th place.  Right, so this team could find the magic of two years ago or they could roll the dice with the same crew again and crap out.  Maybe if the former happens there'll be excitement but the whole MLS product right now works against. that.  

A Little Bit of Everything

Lots to choose from this week.  We have the EFL Cup Final featuring Liverpool and Chelsea on Sunday at 10 am on ESPN+.  Opta has Liverpool as a big favorite, as do the oddsmakers (roughly in the 70/30 range).  

The EPL calendar is truncated because of that Cup Final.  There is no 7:30 game, which is fine by us.  Four choices at 10.  We'll be going with Aston Villa hosting Nottingham Forest (it's also the USA game).  Crystal Palace - Burnley is a match with relegation implications.  Everton seem to play everybody tough these days so they might give host Brighton a tough time.  Man United likely won't be troubled by Fulham at home.  The NBC 12:30 feature match - Bournmouth hosting Man City - doesn't have much a feature quality to it.  Then we get a special horror show at 3 pm, as Newcastle travel to Arsenal.  The last time Newcastle won this fixture was 11/7/10. Since then they have lost 11 and drawn one.  

Just one match on Sunday as Wolves get their shot to take points off of Sheffield United.  On Monday, West Ham will try to score for the first time weeks as they host Brentford.  

Mid-week we have the second legs of Champions League Round of 16 ties.  Man City bring a 3-1 lead to the Etihad against Copenhagen so they have every expectation of advancing.  

As for the Union, they will open the season at Saturday at home against Chicago.  Can't attend this one and it's on MLS Season Pass so WPEN radio is my only option here.  The U also have a Concacaf Champions Cup match on Tuesday night which we will attend.  This is the second leg against Saprissa. Thanks to a hat trick by Carranza on Tuesday, the Union bring a 3-2 lead home for that one.  

Still plenty to keep us busy.

Luck of the Geordies?

Newcastle enjoyed a little bit of luck, Aston Villa not so much.  

Beat the Forest for the Three

Clinical finisher? Schar got another one

This was feeling like deja vu all over again - giving up leads to go into halftime at 2-2 against a bottom five side.  Fortunately a nice take by Guimaraes and a perhaps generous no call on Dubravka yielded a 3-2 win for the Magpies over Nottingham Forest. I note the xG was .51-.97, indicating these were not the most obvious of goal scoring opportunities for either side and that Newcastle were maybe a bit lucky to get the win.  The goal by Bruno, though a low percentage shot, was a laser and we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  The Dubravka incident, seen here, could have gone either way.  I'm happy that VAR did not intervene; that's one of those close ones where changing the call on the field feels like re-refereeing as opposed to correcting an obvious error.  The bottom half of the table is still closer than any European qualifying spots but things have been looking up.  

"A" For Effort But No Points

How to grade the Aston Villa 1-2 loss at home to Man United?  Zero points suggests less than a passing grade.  But, the performance was solid.  After Douglas Luiz leveled it in the 67th minute, you felt this was Aston Villa's match to win.  But they lost the plot toward the end and a late goal from McTominy meant United got all three points.  Stats - especially xG at 2.65-2.45 - say maybe Villa earned at least a point here.  That's twice now they have performed well against Man United and come away with nothing.  

We Ref, You Defend

How about you just play defense instead of
refereeing- Estupinan raises his arm and gets to
 Johnson too late to stop the goal

Wolves - Brentford (2-0 favor the Bees) wasn't awful but it was a poor second choice to Tottenham - Brighton. With the score 1-1 late in stoppage time and me scheduled to meet Michael B for a run after the match, I was prepared for him to be in a bad mood.  Next thing I see is that Spurs have gone up 2-1 in the 96th minute.  Brennan Johnson (fastest man in EPL?) has scored the game winner on a lovely feed from Son.  You can see the play here.  Michael immediately called my attention to how Brighton defender Estupinan raised his arm to call for offside, then failed to get back in time to cover Johnson.  Yeah, the raised arm probably didn't slow him that much but given how close Estupinan came to intercepting the pass, it could easily have been the difference.  I hope he gets a big fine.  Stick to defending because you are a lousy referee; the play wasn't even that close to being offside.

Status Quo at the Top

Didn't see Liverpool - Burnley but the Reds looked to have handled the Clarets easily enough in a 3-1 win.  Not that Everton were in danger of scoring but Man City didn't really finish off the Toffees until very late in their 2-0 win.  Though they took a half hour to get untracked, once Arsenal found the scoring touch it was lights out for West Ham.  The Gunners had 25 shots, 12 on goal to West Ham's five (only one on target) on their way to the 6-0, um, hammering.  So no change in the top three.

Dead Man Coaching?

Roy Hodgson: Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill?

Chelsea hardly distinguished themselves at Selhurst Park, beating Crystal Palace 3-1 on two stoppage time goals.  The xG was just 1.39-.75, hardly a dominating performance.  Still, even though the score flatters Chelsea and Palace were never really expecting a result here, Roy Hodgson's position is even more tenuous.  I've seen odds between 1/8 and 1/3 that he's the next to be sacked.  I can't imagine he survives a loss to Everton this weekend.

Uh oh, I was only kidding with the header but Hodgson did go to the hospital after taking ill during Thursday's practice.  Also, the board chair looked to have been ready to sack Hodgson today after meeting with Austrian Oliver Glasner.  Details are here.  Seems like by the time you read this on Friday, the change may have already been made.

Looking Up from the Abyss

So Sheffield United managed a big win this weekend - 3-1 over relegation rival Luton Town.  The three points got them level with Burnley but both are currently seven points from safety, more if Everton win their appeal of the points deduction.  In other words, the result was more about dragging Luton Town down than lifting Sheffield out of danger.

A New Beer for Newcastle Fans

An alternative to Newcastle Ale

Though I'm sure they've never heard of it across the pond, we've discovered a beer that could become the official Newcastle brew here at 6911.  It's called Magpie Hazy IPA, a tasty beer offered by Wissahickon Brewery.  I've always been partial to lagers and pilsners and such but lately I've come to realize that hazy IPAs aren't as hoppy as I thought.  I think the California trip has something to do with it as well.  I'm not saying it will replace better-known Newcastle Brown Ale but it is a great change of pace.

A Non-descript Weekend in February

The fixtures for Matchweek 25 don't scream "must-see TV."  I kid you not, the most compelling match looks like Everton - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3 pm on USA.  A Palace win would put some distance between them and the relegation zone, not to mention buy Hodgson at least another week.  A win for Everton would likely lift them out of the bottom three.  

In years past, Man City - Chelsea (12:30 feature match on Saturday on NBC) would be a big deal.  For this one, Opta has City at 64% chance of winning and 22% chance of a draw.  Doing the math gets you a 14% chance of Chelsea winning, which sounds about right.  

The only match I can find with the favorite at less than 40% is Fulham - Aston Villa (32/29/39), one of the Saturday 10 am matches on Peacock.  That seems a little pessimistic about Villa's chances; I guess maybe because it's at Craven Cottage.  In any case, it would have been our choice for 10 am except we'll be watching Newcastle host Bournemouth at the same time.  The Magpies do look to be solid favorites here, even with Wilson and Isak both likely out.  Your other 10 am choices are Burnley Arsenal (USA), Nottingham Forest - West Ham (Peacock - actually this one might be close too) and Tottenham - Wolves (Peacock).  Oh, and you can get up at 7:30 for Brentford - Liverpool; I know the Bees are better at home but this looks like a Liverpool W.

Sunday isn't any better.  At 9 we have Sheffield United - Brighton and 11:30 is Luton Town - Man United.  Both are on USA.

There are two EPL mid-week matches. On Tuesday, Man City host Brentford (make-up match from when City were at the Club World Cup) and Wednesday has Liverpool - Luton Town; they are playing their Matchweek 26 contest early in the week because Liverpool play Chelsea in the EFL Cup final next Sunday.

Full slate of European stuff too, including Arsenal - Porto on Wednesday.   

Still pretty much impossible not to find a game any day of the week.

Moving From Crisis to Crisis

Just when things seemed to be getting better for Newcastle, they slipped again.  In New Hampshire so limited time.

Barnes' noble effort rescued a draw for Newcastle
Photo:Malcolm Mackenzie/ProSports/Shutterstock

The good feeling after the Aston Villa road win lasted about 20 minutes, or about as long as it took Luton Town to level the match at 1-1.  It happened again as the teams traded goals for a 2-2 halftime score.  Things got worse as Luton Town went up 4-2 by the 62nd minute.  Goals by Trippier and Barnes (just back from injury) allowed us to salvage a point.  Barnes' shot was well-taken and qualifies as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We sweated out a whether Miley was going to get called for a foul in the build-up.  These late tallies allowed for some relief to go with the dismay that we could only manage a draw against a bottom five club. Let's add an injury to Anthony Gordon (sprained ankle) to the mix.  So much for the one-game winning streak.

Play Sheffield United and Call Me in the Morning

Simply put, facing the Blades is good for what ails you.  Aston Villa were going through their first really unimpressive stretch of the season but snapped out of it very nicely with a 5-0 thrashing of Sheffield United.  Crystal Palace got that relief last week.  Apparently, like many medications, it offers only temporary relief.  Palace were trashed 4-1 by Brighton on Saturday and Aston Villa laid an egg in a 1-3 FA Cup loss to Chelsea. 

Sheffield fell deeper into the hole since all the other bottom five sides grabbed a point this weekend. 

How Do You Say Yo La Tengo In Dutch?

There's a story from the 1962 Mets about how centerfielder Richie Ashburn and shortstop had frequent communication breakdowns on shallow pop flies to the outfield.  Ashburn enlisted the help of a teammate to learn that "yo la tengo" is Spanish for "I got it."  On the next pop fly, Ashburn came racing in yelling "Yo la tengo" and Chacon veered away.  Unfortunately left fielder Frank Thomas didn't speak Spanish and ran into Ashburn, knocking the ball out of his glove.  Is it true?  Hard to say.  The only fact check I could find was that Frank Thomas denied that it happened.  Well, of course he would.

I bring up that old chestnut after watching Livepool's Alisson and van Dijk totally botch a ball in the box to allow Arsenal a lead goal.  You can see the play here.  Quite a stunning miscommunication at a critical time.  Arsenal would add an insurance goal in stoppage time but this would be the game winner.  Frankly, Liverpool looked surprisingly uninspired throughout.  That said, it's not like Arsenal ripped them to shreds.  

Even with the loss, Liverpool maintain a two point lead over Man City and Arsenal, though the Citizens have a game in hand.  They were very steady in a 3-1 win over Brentford.  We already mentioned Villa's win.  Tottenham gave up a chance to move into fourth by surrendering a 94th minute equalizer to Everton while Man United won an important six-pointer over West Ham 3-0.  

EPL Matchweek Scoring Record

45 goals breaks theold record of 44.  Obviously Newcastle Luton Town provided the big boost with their eight.  Other key contributors were Chelsea/Wolves, Aston Villa/SHU, and Brighton/Palace.

Sack Race

Tough weekends for the leading sack candidates.  Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace were run over by Brighton 4-1 while Mauricio Pochettino saw his Chelsea squander an early lead to lose 2-4 to Wolves at Stamford Bridge no less.  Off these disappointing efforts, Hodgson at 1/1 and Pochettino at 2/1 lead the field.  Poch may get some relief from their good showing mid-week in the FA Cup replay versus Aston Villa.  Unfortunately, Eddie Howe has crept back up as well and is now at 16/1 along with ten Hag and Kompany.

The Rest of the 4th Round

FA Cup replays completed the 4th round mid-week.  We had high hopes for Aston Villa against an enigmatic and inconsistent Chelsea side but it was not to be.  Here's the final tally for the round:

Divsion                          Wins         Losses

Premier                             10              5

Championship                    5              9

League Two                       0               2

National League South      1               0

As you can see, this is not a good year for the minnows, with all but one of the last sixteen coming from the top two tiers.

Our 2026 World Cup Runneth Over

The schedule for the 2026 World Cup was announced this week and it was good news for us mid-Atlantic people.  Lincoln Financial Field got five group stage matches and a Round of 16 contest.  The Meadowlands in Secaucus did even better, getting five group stage, a Round of 32, a Round of 16 and the Final.  How many matches we end up seeing will be a budget, not access issue.

  

MatchWeek 24 and the Return of Champions League (and other, lesser, European competitions)

Maybe sleep late and pass on Man City hosting Everton at 7:30 on Saturday.

There are five 10 choices.  The TV option is Liverpool -Burnley, which doesn't sound all that great.  Relegation rivals Luton vs Sheffield United face off but Luton are heavily favored.  Most competitive of the lot is Wolves - Brentford.   Spurs shouldn't really struggle with Brighton at home and Fulham likely can handle Bournemouth.  Put us down for Wolves - Brentford. 

NBC feature at 12:30 is Nottingham Forest hosting Newcastle.  The Magpies are favored but not overwhelmingly so (44/28/28).

Sunday is a bit more interesting.  There's a London Derby at 9 on USA between West Ham and Arsenal.  Best matchup of the week is at 11:30 with Aston Villa hosting Man United. A fixture to sort things out - are Man U on the rebound, are Villa ready to compete for top four?

There is a Managers Under the Gun Special on Monday at 3 pm on Monday with Crystal Palace hosting Chelsea.  The outcome is probably more important to Pochettino's fate than Hodgson's.

Champions League is back with first leg of Round of 16 knockout ties.  Man City is away at Copenhagen (Tuesday at 3) and Arsenal is at Porta (Wednesday at 3 pm).  West Ham, Liverpool and Brighton (winners of their groups) will watch others battle it out for spots in the final 16 in the Europa League.  Likewise Aston Villa will watch others compete for the final 16 in Europa Conference League.

MLS season opens in a little over two weeks?  That is tempered by the news that MLS Season Pass is back too.

The Minnowest of Minnows

We had few moments of the stuff that makes the FA Cup worth watching, then Matchweek 22 from Tuesday-Thursday.  A lot of football.  Newcastle won twice in four days.  What is going on here?

Sunny and Schar (hat tip Jon Champion)

Schar nearly became the first defender to 
bag a hat trick in the EPL

Hard to figure out how to organize all this stuff.  We'll start with a quick review of Newcastle's unlikely week.  For the 2-0 win at Fulham in the FA Cup the stats favor Fulham (possession 37/63, shots 8/12, xG 1.54/1.22) but I recall a sense of confidence that we were going to be fine.  This means a rare trip to the 5th round (against Blackburn) for the Magpies.  On Tuesday at Villa, we were fully prepared to have our butts kicked.  How to explain then the 3-1 win?   Though I've seen Aston Villa lose before Tuesday, I don't think I'd ever seen them outplayed since Emery took over.  Not sure what that's about.  Also, not the best game from keeper Martinez.  Newcastle clearly benefited from some down time and they did not run out of gas late in this one.  A brace from defender Fabian Schar didn't hurt; he definitely got a bit lucky on the second one, which came off the crossbar, deflected off Martinez and basically fell at his feet inside the six.  The third was an own goal, allbeit at the end of some beautiful buildup play that put the ball at the far post.   Arguably, these two sides are pretty much equal, each having hot streak and cold streak.  Yet somehow the aggregate score for their two fixtures is 8-2 Newcastle.  That seems impossible.  After a long streak of gray days, we definitely appreciated the clouds parting, at least for a little bit.

The Stones Are Rolling

Maidstone's Sam Corne takes the game winning shot
for the biggest upset of FA Cup action this year
Photo:AFP/BEN STANSALL

This year's FA Cup finally got the minnow eats the shark moment everybody (well almost everybody) loves with one of the bigger upsets in recent times as Maidstone United (the Stones), 4th in the National League South, edged out Ipswich Town, who sit second in the Championship Division.  That's a spread of 98 places in the English football hierarchy.  Maidstone took the lead just before half.  Given that it was Maidstone's first shot of the game and that Ipswich had dominated the play, this seemed like one of those times when "it's the hope that kills."  Sure enough, Ipswich leveled things at 56 minutes while Maidstone had yet to register another shot.  Incredibly, Maidstone took the lead again in the 66th minute with just their second shot of the match.  This would be their last shot but it would be enough for the 2-1 win.  You can see the goal here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  You can see some of the post-match celebraton here.  They'll face the winner of the Coventry/Sheffield Wednesday replay in the 5th round.  Pretty cool, unless you're an Ipswich fan.

No Hollywood Ending

Wrexham entered their fourth round match against Blackburn with high hopes that were not necessarily unreasonable.  Blackburn are 18th in the Championship while Wrexham are second, so the spread is 32 places; it's not out of the realm of possibility that both will be playing in League One next year.  Think mackerel and tuna rather than minnow and shark.  Anyway, when Wrexham opened the scoring with a goal in the 19th minute, you had to be thinking, here we go.  Unfortunately, all that did was make the tuna mad.  It was 3-1 before half and the final was 4-1 for the Rovers.  It was clear that Blackburn were not interested in being part of anyone's fairy tale.

The Best Man Lost

Really not much to say about Liverpool's 5-2 thrashing of Norwich.  Well, other than the Best Man here - Norwich manager David Wagner - lost.  Turns out he was in fact Best Man at Jurgen Klopp's wedding.  We'll leave discussion about Klopp's announcement that he's leaving at the end of the season to other publications.

Late Winners and Other FA Cup Action

Spurs and Man City looked headed for a replay until Ake' scored in the 88th minute.  There was a VAR review for a possible foul against keeper Vicario but we think they got it right letting the goal stand.  Even more dramatic was Luton Town's 96th minute game winner at Everton that sent the Hatters to the 5th round.  There was nothing dramatic about the Chelsea - Aston Villa 0-0 draw.  Villa, perhaps presaging Tuesday's troubles against Newcastle, looked surprisingly listless.  But Chelsea were even listlesser, completely unable to take advantage of the Villa's off-day.

The Scorecard

For the fourth round of the FA Cup we have the following numbers:

Divsion                          Wins        Draws        Losses

Premier                             8                3                4

Championship                  2                7                5

League Two                      0                0                2

National League South     1                0                0

Yeah, tough weekend for the Championship sides, although three are guaranteed advancement in the replays and a fourth could also make it to the 5th Round.

Ich Bin Ein Saudi

These international competitions can lead to some interesting rooting choices.  For example, with Son Heung-Min playing for South Korea against Saudi Arabia in the AFC Asia Cup Round of 16, Michael B all of sudden became a Saudi fan because a Saudi Arabia victory would send Son back to his beloved Spurs in time for Saturday's match against Everton.  He alerted me that Saudi Arabia were up 1-0 late into stoppage time, undoubtedly pencilling Son in for Saturday's starting XI.  South Korea then proceeded to rain on that parade, leveling the match in 99th minute, then winning the penalty shootout after a scoreless 30 minutes of extra time.  Now the earliest he'll be back is 2/10, later if South Korea make the final.

Matchweek 22

Yikes, how many words in and we haven't gotten to the EPL stuff?  Gonna have to speed through it.  The marquee match was a bust as Liverpool had little trouble dispatching Chelsea 4-1.  Better stuff was Spurs - Brentford, a three act drama.  In Act I, the Bees took an early 1-0 lead and arguably looked the better side.  In Act II, the empire struck back with three goals in just eight minutes.  In Act III, Spurs conceded a second in the 67th minute and then had to hold on for dear live (Michael B text: It was emotionally exhausting).  But we'll go with the second half of Wolves-Man United as the best of the week.  Up 2-0 and 3-1, Man United frittered the lead away.  Only a late stoppage time goal from Koobie Mainoo rescued the three points for the Red Devils.  You can see the highlights here, set up to start when the Wolves decided to make things exciting.

We also need to mention that Luton Town lifted themselves out of the bottom three with 4-0 win over Brighton; where did that come from?

The January Transfer Window Nothing Burger

Harrison's nickhame is Haaland Jr

I don't mean that in a bad way.  Given that there was discussion that Newcastle could lose Guimaraes, Wilson, Almiron and Trippier, having basically nothing happen is a good thing.  We did bring in 18-year-old midfielder Alfie Harrison from Man City for an undisclosed "nominal fee."  Quite relieved they will roll the dice with what they have and wait until the summer transfer window to make bigger moves.

You can review every team's movements here.  A quick eyeballing suggests it was a very quiet window.

The Weekend

There's a full slate of matches for the weekend plus FA Cup replays mid-week.  We're in New Hampshire so not clear how much of that action we'll get to see.  

The Matchweek 23 fixture list is not going to blow you away, although we do have Arsenal hosting Liverpool at 11:30 Sunday on Peacock.  Already 5 points down to Liverpool, one might be ready to label this a "must-win" for the Gunners; definitely a "must-not lose."   I guess we should respect Man United vs West Ham (9 Sunday on Peacock) and Chelsea vs Wolves (9 Sunday on USA) as potentially competitive matches.  I forgot that West Ham are ahead of Man United in the table and that Chelsea are just one place and two points above Wolves.

The BFS sides have what on paper look like winnable matches.  Newcastle host Luton Town (10 Saturday on Peacock) while Aston Villa are at Sheffield United in the NBC Feature Match 12:30 Saturday on Peacock.  Wait, the 12:30 Saturday match is on Peacock?  WTF is going on here?  Oh, NBC has the US Olympic Trials Marathon live.  Never mind.  We're good.  

Probably worth getting up at 7:30 Saturday to see Everton host Spurs on USA; not really expecting an upset but might be close because it's at Goodison Park.  Competition for Newcastle - Luton Town in the 10 am Saturday slot is Brighton - Crystal Palace (USA) or Burnley - Fulham (Peacock).  That latter match could be a tight one.  Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest at 9 am Sunday looks like a poor 3rd option compared to the other choices. 

There's also Monday match between Brentford and Man City at 3 on USA.  Probably the only good thing about that one is that it's your only choice.

There are five FA Cup replays Tuesday and Wednesday.  Best choice is clearly Aston Villa - Chelsea Wednesday at 3 pm.  Neither side has exactly thrilled in recent weeks but I think Villa are more likely to respond here.  The full schedule is here; note that Tuesday looks like a Championship Division matchweek, as all six sides are from the second tier.

Looking ahead, Champions League and the other European competitions are back the following week.  You're viewing plate continues to be full.