Who Needs Strikers?

Various projects leave me short on time, and just when things are getting interesting.

Clark's "tap" ties him for Newcastle scoring lead with two

Newcastle took Bournemouth with two more goals from defenders after our attackers squandered several chances.  DeAndre Yedlin's all-in header that leveled the match at 1-1 is our pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Note how VAR took all the fun out the celebration as Yedlin knew it was a tight call as to whether he had stayed onside.  To be fair to our attacking players, the set up came from Almiron and Saint-Maximin.   Ciaran Clark's game winner was nowhere near as pretty but somehow it did get across the line.  Of course there was plenty of stoppage time and some near misses from Bournemouth because this is Newcastle and they never do anything easy.  The Magpies managed to hold on to capture another three points.  They are now just two points out of fifth and seven clear of the relegation zone.  Some of that is due to wackiness elsewhere but they do have 10 points from the last five matches so they have earned that cushion.  We can rest on that until at least December 4th.

So what's happening?  Is this classic Newcastle?  Never as bad as they seem when things aren't going right but also not as good as they seem when they are on a roll.  Maybe we don't need our strikers to score as long as they keep passing to defenders so they can score.  I still think this a long relegation fight because of the number of decent squads and the lack of really terrible sides, though I am starting to wonder about Norwich.  No, I haven't forgotten they beat Newcastle and Man City.

Really, Michael? Guardiola not pleased with some of  Oliver's
calls on Sunday

The feature clash between 1st place Liverpool and 2nd place Man City was a bit of bust.  City
management and fans are still complaining about Michael Oliver not calling handling in the box shortly before Fabinho's laser made it 1-0.  The ball clearly hit Alexandar-Arnold's arm; was it in a natural position?  Hard to say.  VAR didn't overrule so it was clearly a tough call.  City didn't need to give up another just seven minutes later and yet another early in the second half.

Friday's Norwich - Watford tilt could only be streamed on NBC.  Those who missed out shouldn't feel that deprived not seeing the Hornets' 2-0 win.  Christian Pulisic notched another in Chelsea's 2-0 win over Crystal Palace.  Spurs woes continued as they could only manage a 1-1 draw at home against Sheffield United.  At least they still have Champions League.  Seriously, this might be the first time since I've been following Newcastle that the Magpies are above Tottenham in the table.  The draw lifted Sheffield United to fifth.  I had planned to take an in-depth look at the 538 expected goals numbers to see who's been lucky or unlucky so far this season.  I did check all of Sheffield United's matches and it looks to me they are six points above where they should be based on expected goals.  In this crazy, compressed table, that would drop them from 5th to 16th or 17th.

Speaking of 17th place, hard times continue for Aston Villa.  Playing Wolves away is no fun the week after facing Liverpool.  They weren't terrible but they looked uninspired; missing Grealish - and others - is probably taking it's toll.  The 1-2 loss leaves them just three clear of the drop zone.  On the positive side, they are only six points out of 5th.

Leicester passed another test with a win over Arsenal.  I watched the match and have vague recollections of thinking like the 2-0 was a little flattering to the Gunners.  In many ways it was close - Leicester scored at 68 and 75 minutes and many of the stats match up well.  But it looked like Arsenal played "not to lose" while Leicester were the creative side.  The Foxes are second now, behind only Liverpool.


Seattle Sounder than Toronto

I stole that from Adrian Healy or some other MLS announcer.  Seattle defeated Toronto 3-1 to win the MLS Cup.  Not a compelling match in my view.  Toronto definitely had the run of play for 60 minutes but had no goals to show.  Seattle got an own goal that was not ruled an own goal at 57 minutes.  The shot by Leerdam looked to be nowhere near on target until it deflected off a Toronto defender.  The second goal was cleaner and still sort of against the run of play.  A third at 90 minutes clinched things, making Jozy Altidore's powerful header in stoppage time a footnote.  While the game itself wasn't great, watching Brian Schmetzer, Seattle's home grown manager, take in the victory was. More on Schmetzer here.


Getting Ready

The BFS Founders Derby is just around the corner.  Earlier it looked like Dennis's Aston Villa would wipe the floor with Steve's Newcastle.  And that could still happen.  But the Magpies recent form gives me hope for a competitive match on Monday November 25.

For the next week or so you'll have to amuse yourself with European Qualifiers and CONCACAF Nations League stuff.  Most of the European stuff is on ESPN3 or ESPN+ but you might find a few on ESPN2.  This set of matches will conclude group play, locking up spots for next year's European Championship for 20 countries.  Another four slots will be up for grabs in a byzantine playoff format.

The USMNT plays Canada on Friday (7 pm ESPN2) and Cuba on Tuesday (7:30 on FS1).  Recall the last match versus Canada didn't go all that well.  Let's see if there's a response this time.

Craziness Continues

Another raft of puzzling results, none more so than Newcastle's 3-2 away win over West Ham.

Shelvey is Newcastle's leading scorer with two goals

Magpies struck early and often but almost not often enough.  They came to rue missed chances that would have had them up 4-0 or 5-0, which would have made for a much cushier ride to the finish. Playing without either Longstaff did not seem to be a problem as Shelvey and Hayden resumed their partnership in the midfield with good results.  As is Newcastle's style, the center backs continued to provide the scoring punch with Clark and then Fernandez getting goals at 16 and 22 minutes.  The biggest issue seemed to be that Saint-Maximin and Almiron had golden opportunities to make it even worse but they could not convert and the half ended 2-0.  Fortunately Shelvey added a third with a free kick at 51 minutes so there was a period when things seemed okay.  But easy is not in Newcastle's nature.  A goal at 73 minutes cut the margin and it started to look scary.  Another at 90 minutes meant a harrowing few minutes of stoppage time.  Yeah, I know before the match I would have gladly taken a draw but not after being up 3-0 through 70+ minutes.  Fortunately the Magpies held on for the three points.

The biggest positive was the way the team just jumped on the Hammers from the get-go.  Almiron and Saint-Maximin were wreaking havoc all over the place.  They are clearly critical offensive forces even when they don't score.  It would just be better if they did score.  Some credit to Bruce for the Hayden/Shelvey pairing; it was partly forced by Longstaff's suspension but not completely.  Again, some shocking let ups in the defense late that can't continue.  But they sit 15th in the table with a four point cushion over 18th place, which means no matter what happens this weekend, the Magpies will go into the international break outside the relegation zone.  That did not seem likely a few weeks ago.


Business Not As Usual

Liverpool and Man City played remarkably similar matches against lower tier opposition and both were lucky to come away with 2-1 wins.  Aston Villa scored early then managed to keep Liverpool off the scoreboard for 86 minutes.  Alas, they then surrendered goals at 87 and 94 and came away with naught for the efforts.  Similarly Southampton got up on Man City only to allow goals at 70 and 86 to get their 1-2 loss.

The morning started off with another curious result as Bournemouth took the measure of what we thought was a resurging Man United side.  Check out the game's only goal from Joshua King, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The pass, the settle, the flick over the defender and the finish are all superb.  Jeff H will likely complain that Man Utd is never featured in the YouTubeableMoment except when it's against them but even he will have to admit that was a lovely goal.

Leicester just ground out a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace on a dark, damp day at Selhurst Park that left me and Michael B nostalgic.  Wolves continued their haunting of the "Top Six" clubs with a 1-1 draw at Arsenal. Sheffield United continued what must be considered their fairy tale with a 3-0 thumping of Burnley; the Blades sit 6th in the table with equal fewest number of goals allowed of any team in the EPL - just eight (tied with Leicester).  Chelsea walked away with a 2-1 win over Watford to keep their place in the top four.  Brighton kept Norwich's bad streak going with a 2-0 win.

Except for the very top, the table looks weird at this point.  Just two points separate 10th (Man United!?) and 17th (Everton !!??).  Tottenham are 11th and trail such power houses as Sheffield United, Bournemouth, Brighton and Crystal Palace.  I guess a top five of Liverpool, Man City, Leicester, Chelsea, and Arsenal isn't all that strange but the rest sure is.

The weather is becoming more appropriate.  Most of the games I saw included precipitation ranging from mists to downpours.  Good. I was getting tired of watching matches on sun splashed fields.

The Ugly, the Ugly and the Ugly

Underperforming Spurs took on even more underperforming Everton at Goodison Park and the whole thing, from start to finish, was not pretty.  Apparently, I am not the only one who sees it that way.  Really, I urge you to click and read the article.  The money quote:

This game was obviously going to suck, and yet it sucked beyond anyone’s wildest expectations, in ways no one could have anticipated.

I will add that the first half was so bad even Rebecca Lowe was forced to use the adjective "turgid" to describe it. 

Obviously a big part of the ugliness was the horrendous injury to Everton's Gomes after being tripped by Son.  It was clearly a foul, clearly a yellow card.  But the injury came about because of how Gomes landed, not the force of Son's challenge.  Atkinson appeared to show yellow as he approached Son but changed it to a red card.  To me it looked like he made the change based on the severity of the injury, not the foul.  Thus, I felt justice was served when the red card was rescinded upon appeal. Atkinson's handling of the foul was just consistent with how things went with this match.  That it ended in a 1-1 draw which really didn't improve either team's situation, seemed appropriate.


Champions League Follies

Two wins and two draws for the EPL sides.  Spurs looked pretty good beating Crvena zvezda (Red Star to you and me) 4-0.  Maybe Pochettino should simply convince his squad that weekend EPL matches are really midweek Champions League contests.  Also note the very classy behavior from Son after scoring two goals; instead of celebrating, he appeared to offer apologies to Gomes.  Didn't see Liverpool but they got a 2-1 win over Genk.  Also missed Man City's 1-1 draw with Atalanta; big story there is that Ederson sustained an injury that will likely keep him out of Sunday's match against Liverpool.  Also noteworthy was that his replacement, Claudio Bravo, got himself red carded so City ended the match with Kyle Walker in goal.

But the most fun was clearly Chelsea's 4-4 draw with Ajax.  Tammy Abraham got himself an own goal just two minutes in.  Kepa got another one at 35 minutes.  This was truly insult to injury as Dennis pointed out as he had been beaten on a cross that went over his head; but the ball didn't go directly in, hitting the post then rebounding off Kepa's face into the net. That made it 3-1 Ajax.  van de Beek made it 4-1 early in the second half.  Chelsea's comeback starts with Asteipcipdulta Asspiguliata Dave scoring from about a foot out to make it 4-2.  Then it just gets nuts.  Daley Blind commits a foul but ref plays advantage, which ends up with a ball striking Veltman's arm in the box.  First, the ref goes back to award Blind a yellow for his foul, then a red card as it's Blind's second yellow.  Next, he heads over to Veltman to show him yellow, then red, as it is also Veltman's second of the game.  About 4 minutes after the first foul was actually committed, Jorginho converts the PK so it's 4-3 at 71 minutes and Ajax are down to nine players.  Three minutes later, Reece James levels the match with a shot from the top of the box.  Chelsea actually put the ball into the net again at 78 minutes but the goal was disallowed after VAR saw that the ball had hit Abraham's arm in the box.  Probably a fair result but what a ride.

All four EPL sides still look in good position to advance to the knockout stage.


Big Match Up

Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN is the much anticipated first meeting of the season between Liverpool and Man City.  Should be a goal or four.  Oddsmakers and 538 both have City as slight favorites to win though a draw could be the most likely outcome.  Hope it lives up to expectations.

Newcastle are back home to face Bournemouth at 10 am on Saturday on NBC Gold.  The Cherries have been playing well so this is no easy fixture.  It's a fair test to see if last week's performance at West Ham signaled a real shift for the Magpies.

The weekend will kickoff with a 3 pm Friday match for which TV coverage is not clear.  Given that it's 19th place Norwich hosting 20th place ( and winless) Watford, maybe there won't be any coverage.  Saturday's 7:30 match (NBCSN) is a London derby featuring Chelsea and Crystal Palace.  The 10 am TV game on NBCSN offers every reason to tune in.  Overachieving Sheffield United will take on underachieving Spurs at the new White Hart Lane Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (get a better name please). The feature NBC game at 12:30 also looks like a cracker with Leicester hosting Arsenal.  The Foxes are huge favorites, maybe deservedly so, but somehow this feels like a tight one.

Sunday morning has two 9 am games before the big one.  You can see Man United try to bounce back against Brighton (NBCSN) or Wolves take on Aston Villa (NBC Gold).  We will probably opt for the latter, mostly to scout Villa for the upcoming renewal of the Fillebrown derby (Aston Villa - Newcastle) on 11/25.

Also, don't forget MLS Cup at 3 pm on ABC with Seattle hosting Toronto.   Not crazy about either team but I think I dislike Toronto more (whiners!).  It's the third time in four years these two have met in the final.  Seattle didn't score in either one but still won in 2016 in a shoot out; Toronto won 2-0 in 2017.  There is some thought that this could be a "grind it out" contest rather than a free wheeling goal fest.  The Sounders are a heavy favorite (65% at 538).

Gonna be in the low 40s this weekend.  Great football viewing weather.

A House of Straw

Highlights from second half of Newcastle-Wolves

Last week we said a Newcastle draw with Wolves would be "awesome."  We stand by that assessment after the 1-1 result.  Yes, the Magpies were actually leading for 70 minutes and the prospect of three points lingered in the air.  But, after a decent first half which included a good header goal from Lascelles, Newcastle were totally outclassed in the second half.  Even at 1-0, Wolves were huffing and puffing and looked ready to blow our house in and the game felt headed to a 1-2 result.  After Wolves finally broke through at 73 minutes, that outcome looked even more likely.  Somehow, Newcastle did hang on, though there was a real scare with a VAR review of Lascelles shirt grab in the box in stoppage time.  Since the replay clearly showed Lascelles with a fistful of jersey, we have no idea why it wasn't called upon review.

Positives from the match include a pretty decent first half with more possession than normal and continued excitement from Saint-Maximin.  Lowlights include a second half in which the Magpies didn't do squat.  Through 10 games, Newcastle have just 6 goals, one more than worst-in-league Watford's 5.  More distressing is that only one of these is from a striker. 


South of Awful

Southampton fans at Friday's match vs Leicester

A gale was blowing but that was the least of Southampton's problems on Friday.  I was confused as to why there was a VAR review after Chilwell's goal for Leicester at 10 minutes.  Turns out it wasn't for the goal but for Ryan Bertand's challenge in the build up (referee played advantage).  The upshot was the goal was good and Bertrand was red carded.  Ouch.  Reminded me of an old Rodney Dangerfield bit:

Doctor: You're overweight
Dangerfield: I'd like a second opinion
Doctor: Okay, you're ugly too.

So things pretty much went down hill from there.  It was 5-0 by halftime and the final was 9-0.  The thumping was bad enough to move Newcastle out of the relegation zone as Southampton's goal differential went down the toilet.  South of awful indeed, as the announcer said.


Little Relief for Embattled Managers

Certainly Hassenhutl's situation did not improve after the Leicester result.  Neither did Marco Silva's prospects after Everton saw a late 2-1 advantage over Brighton evaporate with two goals after 80 minutes, including a heartbreaking own goal by Digne in stoppage time.  A midweek League Cup win over Watford may relieve some pressure but Silva is still hanging by a thread.  Unai Emery's Arsenal was robbed of a win over Crystal Palace by a "curious" VAR decision (discussed below) and had to settle for a 2-2 draw.  Tottenham did play pretty well against Liverpool, who managed a 2-1 win with a late PK; didn't help Pochettino but shouldn't be held against him.  Man United's Ole Gunnar did get a 3-1 win over Norwich and saw some improvement for his odds.


Stiletto?

Aston Villa seemed to be holding their own against Man City.  And then suddenly they weren't.  This must be what it's like to be stabbed in the back with a stiletto.  You think you came out of the fight in pretty good shape and look up and see you got beat 0-3.

Pulisic: An American in Burnley

Elsewhere, USMNT star Christian Pulisic fashioned a hat trick to take Chelsea past Burnley 4-2. Yeah, one was a deflection and another was a "header" basically off his back.  They still count and he should get credit for coming through when he was finally given a start.



VAR Fainting Couch

I've been counseling against this but a rash of poor decisions using VAR is getting me worried.  The most recent exhibit was late in Arsenal - Crystal Palace.  I was not watching the match but the score updates in the upper right hand corner of the TV screen suggested something unsavory was going on.  First I saw Arsenal 3 Palace 2 and it stayed up for several minutes.  Then it went back to 2-2.  Curiosity sent me to the highlights and sure enough, this was not good. If I did this right, you can see the incident starting here.  Two Three problems here.  First, do you see a foul by Chambers?  Me neither.  Second, if I read the clock right, the goal went in at 82:19 but play hadn't restarted as of 86:28.  And third, shouldn't the center referee go to the monitor to confirm that a call of that magnitude is going to be overturned? Apparently, the Premier League is concerned enough that some changes may be up for discussion.


Third Kits

Villa in Christmas kit and it wasn't even Halloween yet
Matt West/BPI/Shutterstock

A couple of interesting third kits this weekend.  We saw Aston Villa in their Christmas uniforms and Everton became the Salmons instead of the Toffees.  Wait, toffee isn't blue either.  Never mind.  Man City were home so the Astros throw back jerseys were still at the cleaners.


I Still Don't Carabao It Cup

Everton away kit is actually closer to toffee-colored
 than blue home kit

Looked like there were some fun matches in the round of 16.  Liverpool-Arsenal was 5-5 and went to PKs, with the Reds advancing.  Man United took care of Chelsea 2-1.  Villa are into the quarters with a 2-1 win over Wolves.  The quarters are Tuesday 12/17 and look like this:

Everton-Leicester
Man United - Colchester
Oxford United - Man City
Aston Villa - Liverpool

Wonder how much the managers like the midweek matches in the middle of the holiday season.  The EPL has match days on 12/7-9, 12/14-16, 12/21-22, 12/26-7, 12/28-9, and 1/1-2, as in six matches in 27 days.  More scary is three matches in a week and four matches in 13 days.  I do enjoy having matches to watch during the holidays but this schedule favors the top teams (who have more depth) and increases the likelihood of injuries. 


MLS Finals Set

Heavy favorites LAFC and Atlanta fell to Seattle and Toronto respectively.  Have to say Seattle looked like they totally deserved the result while Atlanta might have had the run of play but fell anyway.  The Atlanta-Toronto match might have been decided in a four minute stretch when Toronto keeper Westberg saved a PK in the 11th minute and Benezet curled an equalizer in at the 14th minute.  They will be this week's co-YouTubeable Moments with the save here and the goal here.  The final is 11/10.


We'll do more of a season wrap-up for the Union during the next international break but Jonathan Tannenwald outlined some of the off-season issues for the Union in an article in Thursday's Inquirer.  He notes that Fabian is most certainly gone.  He was awful in comparison to the price we paid for him but he did have important contributions.  More scary is the assessment that Monteiro's return is unclear; the price to exercise the option to buy may be more than the Union are willing to pay.  The distressing part of this is that once again, instead of building on the progress, the first moves of the off-season may be replacing key losses. 


Schedule

We catch up (fall back?) to England as we end Daylight Savings Time on Sunday but the Saturday games are an hour later.  Hit the snooze button and sleep until 8:30 and you can still catch Bournemouth Man United live on NBCSN.  Probably get a few loads of laundry before the 11 am games (five of them) come around.  The TV choice is Man City hosting Southampton; the Citizens are a two touchdown favorite.  For those who might want a more competitive match up, we might suggest surprise package Sheffield United taking on Burnley on NBC Gold.  Might not be a goal fest but could be a tight contest.  We'll be going with West Ham - Newcastle on NBC Gold; a draw on the road is about all we can ask for here and that could be a stretch.  The "feature" match at 1:30 on NBC is Watford - Chelsea.

Sunday is a short list with Crystal Palace - Leicester at 9 and Everton - Spurs at 11:30.  The latter is a "Managers under fire" special, with both Silva and Pochettino under the microscope at this point.

Playoffs!

Yikes, a surfeit of stories with two rounds of MLS playoffs, EPL action, BFS correspondents reporting in from all over the world and me with papers to grade.  You know what that means?  Coverage a mile wide and an inch deep.


First Union Playoff Win Evah

U teammates celebrate with Fabian

And what a contest!  Down 0-2 and 1-3 at half time, largely (though not entirely) due to a poor outing from Andre Blake (more on that below), the U scrambled back to level things in regular time and then snatched a win in extra time.  Besides Blake's troubles, the U's passing in the first half was atrocious so it's not completely fair to dump responsibility on our keeper.  Jack Elliott (hasn't done much wrong all year) got the comeback started with a sweet header at 52 minutes.  Fafa Picault got the equalizer, also on a header, at 78 minutes.  Late sub Fabian got the game winner in stoppage time of the first extra period on a deflected shot that some are still trying to figure out how it find the back of the net.


Curtains on Union Manager Bashing?

Once again, his substitution pattern rescued the game.  Ilsinho got the offense going while Picault and Fabian scored.  We got four goals with our leading scorer - shuhBILLkoh - out with an injury.  This has been happening all year.  Curtin has done an excellent job with this squad, making changes to the starting line up and in-game substitutions that have made a difference.  Go back to some of the less savory results and I'll bet you'll find Curtin's choices were compromised by player availability.


Tepid Atlanta

The Union run ended with an 0-2 defeat in Atlanta.  Once again the U were without leading scorer shuhBILLkoh and it showed.  This was a pretty decent showing against a superior team in their own setting.  Not sure how much blame to assign Blake for the early goal here but looked like he made the wrong choice again.  Can't help but wonder what might have been had Aaronson converted that golden chance at 17 minutes, which would have leveled things at 1-1; some credit to Guzan for a good save there.  We'll do a more complete round up when things are quieter but in sum this was easily the best season in the U's 10-year history.


Keeper Gaffes - Special Halloween Horror Edition - The Blakening

Apparently this feature is destined to continue.  We need only focus on the Union - Red Bulls match to gather enough material for this week, courtesy of Andre Blake's bad awful first half.

1. Normally a reliable shot stopper, this one got past Andre for an early 0-1 deficit.  Maybe harsh but looks like he got both hands to it.

2. As BFS Keeper Consultant, Graham R points out, "crosses in the air" are not Blake's strong suit.  We present Exhibit A.  Things looked pretty blake bleak at that point, down 0-2 at 24 minutes.

3. In the same text, Graham R also noted that "communicating with his defenders" is also not Blake's strong suit.  We present Exhibit B.  That one felt like an absolute sucker punch, coming right at the end of the first half and leaving the Union in a 1-3 hole.

To be clear, we are not saying Blake is a bad keeper.  But he does have some weaknesses and they were on display in that first half.


Random Thoughts on the MLS Playoffs

We assume MLS is thrilled with the single elimination format so far.  The first round matches were all close, many going into extra time.  Toronto-DC produced a curious scoreline - 5-1 in extra time; yes, Toronto scored four in extra time.  All but one of the higher seeds (Minnesota the exception) advanced.

For the NYCFC - Toronto conference semi-final fixture, Yankee Stadium was expected to be occupied by the true tenants - the Yankees; turns out it was available but they couldn't know that the Yankees would crash out of the baseball playoffs so early so alternate plans had to be made.  Instead of finding a real soccer venue, they simply moved to another inadequate site - Citi Field.  Based on the field markings and the grain of the mowing pattern, we know that the pitch was 66 x 108.  Why does MLS allow important any matches to be played on pitches that would be inadequate for a high school game?  Never mind, I know the answer.  $$$$.  So I can't say I was heart broken when Toronto slipped by NYCFC 2-1 on a late penalty.

Seattle worked hard and came away with a deserved 2-0 win over Real Salt Lake.  The big takeaway for me was the heroic performance by Rimando in his final match.

The last conference semi was the renewal of El Trafico - the derby between LAFC and the LA Galaxy.  Wild stuff as LAFC took a 5-3 win.

Conference finals are Atlanta - Toronto (Wednesday at 8 pm on FS1) and LAFC - Seattle (Tuesday at 10 pm on ESPN).


Not Awful Is Still No Points

Saint-Maximin - A bright spot in Chelsea loss (Getty)

Newcastle held Chelsea at bay for most of the match but in the end fell 1-0 on a goal from Marcos Alonzo in the 73rd minute.  When we say not awful, we're really saying their defense was well-organized.  Possession was 71-29, shots were 16-5 and shots on target 8-0.  As we have pointed out many times, depending on your opponent to provide an own goal is no way to go through life; if you don't manage a shot on goal, the best you can do is a draw.  Actually, those stats are slightly misleading because there were many times that the Magpies did muster a counterattack; it's just they never put the shot on frame.

Saint-Maximin continues to look like a live wire who eventually is going to generate some goals.  Less sure about Joelinton.  He doesn't get much service but he isn't converting the few chances he does get.  Almiron is a puzzle too but I will say he does make some promising runs and provides possession that takes some of the pressure off.  Yeah, not much to hang your hat on, eh?


Random Thoughts on EPL

Embattled managers got some results but it didn't seemed to help their odds in the Sack Race.  Man United did a very creditable job against Liverpool and earned a 1-1- draw.   The Liverpool goal came late (85th minute) and United made Liverpool look disorganized in a way no team has this year.  Still, there's Old Gunner leading the Sack Race at 2/1.

Same for Marco Silva.  His Everton squad woke up with a solid 2-0 win over West Ham but Silva is still listed at 3/1. Spurs rescued a 1-1 draw with a late goal at home to Watford, which needs to be considered an unsatisfactory result for them so it's not a surprise that Pochettino sits at 4/1 odds.  We have to say the Spurs equalizer looked highly suspicious to us.  I thought it clearly came off of Alli's upper arm and under the new rules, you don't even have to consider intent in that situation.

The 0-1 loss at Chelsea was hardly a surprise for Newcastle so Steve Bruce didn't go up or down at 12/1.  I thought Southampton's 1-1 draw with Wolves was a mild upset but Hasenhuttl stays at 12/1.  And Arsenal's poor 0-1 showing against Sheffield United puts Unai Emery into the mix at 16/1.

Leicester rallied from an 0-1 deficit to get a hard fought 2-1 win.  They now sit third in the table.  Before the Aston Villa match, I might have argued that the EPL has used a high standard for clear and obvious error in its use of VAR.  The disallowed goal for Villa must be the exception that proves the rule.  They ended up with a 2-1 win despite playing a man up for much of the match - which has typically not been helpful to them.  Only four teams have a better goal differential than the Villans.

Man City got a 2-0 win over CP wearing their Houston Astros throw-back jerseys.  The second goal, from David Silva is a thing of beauty from the build up to the finish; it's also this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Crazy season so far.


Champions League

All you need to know I have time for right now is all EPL sides got wins in Matchday 3 of group play and all look good to advance to the knockout round halfway through the group stage.


BFS in Europe

 La Liga Correspondent Michael B reports in from Mallorca:

Correspondent Michael B is the one in the goofy hat.
Correspondent Michael B is the one in the goofy hat, third
from the right.

Mallorca (newly promoted and #18 in the table) 1, Real Madrid (#1 in the table). Note Samuel E'to's name on stadium wall of fame next to men's room. He started out playing for Mallorca!

He was there cycling but not surprisingly find time to take in some football.

Meanwhile, in Israel, BFS Real Estate consultant, Ze Roberto (aka Bob K) tells us that his new favorite club is Hapoel Kfar Saba FC (double checked spelling, not a typo).  Details on the newly promoted side can be had here.


If It's Tuesday, This Must Be Belgium

Yeah, but the wrong town.  Michael B sends us this story of a travel mix-up by two Liverpool fans who went to Gent instead of Genk and missed out on their side's Champions League match.  All those European cities look alike.


Britain Off Daylight Saving Time

I have given up looking for easy fixtures on the Newcastle schedule. - there is no such thing this year.  Facing Wolves at home might qualify as one of the "less difficult" matches but still looks incredibly daunting.  They haven't lost in four matches after getting off to a slow start.  A draw would be awesome.

Early start to the weekend with Southampton vs Leicester at 3 pm on Friday (NBCSN).  Leicester are taking advantage of the vacuum at the top and look in good form; Southampton have yet to find any rhythm to date.

We'll get up early on Saturday (7:30 NBCSN) to see how Aston Villa fare against Man City; 538 has this has a lopsided affair but we'll watch anyway.  Just three matches at 10 and none are that exciting.  The TV game is Brighton - Everton or you can go for Watford - Bournemouth or West Ham - Sheffield United on NBC Gold.  See what I mean.  Even the featured 12:30 match on NBC doesn't grab me all that much - Burnley hosting Chelsea; the Clarets do play tough so it might be a tight, low scoring match.

For some reason, the schedulers felt the need to pile three matches in at 12:30.  The TV match (on NBC, not NBCSN) is Liverpool - Tottenham.  Playing at Anfield hardly seems like a way for Spurs to put their season back on track.  NBC Gold will have a London derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace plus Norwich hosting Man United; the latter might be a good test to see if United have found their feet.

Don't forget the MLS conference finals on Tuesday and Wednesday.

I'm sure I forgot something but whatever...

Let the Inquest Begin

Pulisic's expression says it all (ESPN2)

After a 7-0 pasting of Cuba, the USMNT put up a real stinker in a 0-2 defeat to Canada in Nations League action.  This was the first loss to Canada in 34 years.  Though the actual place in this competition is not a real issue, performances like that one are.  They managed just three shots on target.  The Sports Illustrated write up is littered with phrases like "lack of meaningful possession in final third," "lack of creative runs," and "scatterbrained."  Pulisic didn't have the greatest night but was also often isolated in the attack.  He was subbed around 60 minutes and was visibly unhappy.  Commentators Ian Darke and Taylor Twellman used the word "inquest" liberally in the closing minutes.  The competition is somewhat of a no-win situation for the USMNT, as in if they win so what.  But they need to win so people can say "so what" as opposed to "wtf."

England also saw their unbeaten qualification streak ended with a 1-2 loss to the Czech Republic in European Championship qualifying.  This was their first loss in Euro or World Cup qualifying since October 2009.  Not as shocking as the US loss to Canada, just notable.  No inquest likely here, plus they pounded Bulgaria 6-0 in their second match during the international break.  That match may have been more notable for the racist behavior of vulgar Bulgarian fans, who directed monkey chants and Nazi salutes at Tyrone Mings and others.  England was also criticized for not bringing enough traveling stewards.  Uh?  Seems like FIFA could go no tolerance on this - either no home matches or home matches in empty stadia.

Took in a few other Euro qualifiers, including the Dutch 3-1 come-from-behind win over Northern Ireland in which all goals were scored after the 74th minute and a tight 1-1 draw between Sweden and Spain where Rodrigo got the equalizer in stoppage time to rescue a draw for Spain.  Also got to see Ukraine take an early lead and hold on to a 2-1 victory over Portugal.  Pretty good stuff all around.

For those keeping score at home, the following countries have qualified:

Belgium
Italy
Poland
Russia
Spain
Ukraine

Matchdays 9 and 10 in early November will conclude group play and determine many more automatic spots.  But there will be all kinds of playoffs to determine additional spots.  The playoff process is more complicated than the NBA draft lottery so I won't go into it here.


Turning Your Back on a Teammate

Apparently isn't always bad.  In one of the Dutch matches during the break, I saw a choreographed throw-in play in which a Dutch player stood maybe five yards from a teammate with his back turned to the thrower.  The throw-in gently bounced off the back and the thrower easily settled it and merrily dribbled away.  I couldn't find a video of the play but I did find this play by Canada's Junior Hoilett and Mark-Anthony Kaye from a match in March.  Same idea except the Canadian version looked more casual and spontaneous.  In the Dutch plan, the teammate clearly planted himself with his back parallel to the touchline to provide the perfect backboard.  Let's see if this catches on.


I Thought They Had National Health Insurance

In Football Manager 2010, I would occasionally have to deal with injury situations in which there was a choice between letting the injury heal or giving the player an injection that would get him through the next match but would cause him to miss more time in total.  I never chose the injection route because, I don't know, I hate shots?  Anyway, in FM 2019 the same thing happens, except now it tells me that the injection will cost the team $650 and goes against our budget.  I guess it's not covered by the British national health insurance plan.

I'm about two months into my tenure at Chester and in that time, team cohesion has gone from "abysmal" to "very poor" to "poor."  I'm told my position is secure at the moment because the cost to terminate my contract is more than the team is willing to spend.  That, and we are in first place after seven games. 


EPL and MLS Playoffs

And me out much of the weekend with refereeing and other stuff...

Newcastle can look to build on the win over Man United but not feeling much promise with a road trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea.  Anything from that match is a bonus.  That's at 10 am but only on NBC Gold.

Saturday dawns early with a 7:30 (NBCSN) match between embattled Everton and mildly surprising West Ham.  The other five 10 am matches offer a range of interesting contests.  The TV guys picked Spurs -Watford; story line there is whether Tottenham get their act together against the last place side.  Leicester - Burnley could be a real good fixture between relatively equal squads.  Same for Aston Villa - Brighton.  Are Wolves really back to last season form?  They face Southampton at home.  Bournemouth and Norwich is the least interesting of the bunch but the Canaries sometimes surprise.  The Saturday 12:30 feature on NBC doesn't look great as Man City go to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace; except, Palace have more points in the last five matches than City so who knows?

Sunday has just a solo game with Man United hosting Liverpool (11:30 on NBCSN).  Used to be we'd think of this as a big time match up with all sorts of implications.  Recent form for both sides suggests otherwise but maybe United will get their act together.  We get Monday afternoon football this week as Arsenal travel to face Sheffield United; the Gunners look in much better form and are favorites here.

MLS has six single elimination playoff matches spread over Saturday and Sunday.  Our primary focus will be the Union vs Red Bulls at Talen Energy (3 pm Sunday on FS1).  At 538 the Union are a solid favorite (70%) which seems on the optimistic side to me.  The good news is that shuhBILLkoh and Bedoya are both expected back.  This gives Curtin many more options than he had against NYCFC two weeks ago.

Saturday has games at 1 (Atlanta - New England on Univision), 3:30 (Seattle - Dallas on FS1), 6 (Toronto - DC United on [can't find it on my TV], and 10 (Real Salt Lake - Portland on ESPNews).   Again, surprised that 538 doesn't see these as all that close with Atlanta at 78%, Seattle at 66%, Toronto at 75% and RSL at 66%.  The weekend concludes with Minnesota - LA Galaxy at 8:30 on Sunday night (ESPN), the tightest match up according to 538 with Minnesota at 62%.

MLS apparently wants the playoffs to go quickly as they scheduled the second round matches for mid-week on 10/23 and 10/24.  Wow, another big advantage to the division winners, who got first round byes and will face sides working with four days rest.  And conference finals are next Saturday/Sunday so teams could have three games in 7-8 days.  This might be driven by the international break in mid-November.  If they don't get the final in by 11/10, they'd have to wait until 11/24.

The break is clearly over.

Paddle Found?

Another week of confounding results in the EPL and the Union once again limp to the end of the regular season.


Not As Far Up the Creek As We Thought?

Twice now, Newcastle have gone into matches in terrible form against seemingly more formidable opponents and come away with 1-0 wins. First it was Tottenham, Sunday it was Man United.  That both of those clubs are struggling maybe should be no surprise.  Maybe they are up the same creek as Newcastle.

Dream PL debut for Matty Longstaff (PA Media)

And it was not an undeserved three points.  Arguably the Magpies had the run of play.  Except for Maguire's missed header, Man United didn't threaten all that much.  Neither did the Magpies but at least 19 year-old Matty Longstaff didn't miss his big chance - an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Could the Magpies actually be ahead of expected points through eight matches?  Maybe.  The way they've been collected makes it seem worse.  At best we could have planned on wins versus Norwich, Brighton and Watford and Norwich on the road might have been forecast as a draw.  Hard to expect any points from Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Leicester and Man United.  So somewhere between seven and nine points was our likely total and here we sit with eight.  Disappointing draws to Watford and Brighton, plus the debacle at Leicester have been overcome by surprise wins over Tottenham and Man United.


Keeper Follies

I hadn't planned on it being a regular feature but again this weekend, several keepers did not distinguish themselves.

1. Hugo Lloris possibly surpasses last week's performance with this gaffe.  Adding injury to insult, he's out with a dislocated elbow until January.  That goal was the start of a bad awful day for Spurs, as they put up an 0-3 stinker at Brighton.  There was nothing unlucky about this either, they were just plain bad.

2. If you're going to mess up, best to do it when you're leading 5-0.  Check out this incident late in Aston Villa's 5-1 thrashing of Norwich.  We do have to give partial credit to Tyrone Mings' ill-advised back pass but Neal Heaton didn't handle it all that well.  BTW, during this blow-out, Dennis says he only got comfortable when the score reached 4-0.

3. Maybe a little harsh but shouldn't Adrian have been able to stop this shot?  The goal by Maddison leveled things between Liverpool and Leicester at 1-1 late.  But a rash challenge by Albrighton in the box in stoppage time set up James Milner for the PK that gave Liverpool a 2-1 win.  A much anticipated match that more than satisfied.

4. Also maybe on the harsh side but looks like Guaita could have done better here.  No matter.  His Crystal Palace side rallied to get a 2-1 win at West Ham and move into 6th place.


Happy Learned How to Putt. Uh Oh.

If Traore can finish like this, look out (Getty)

So the knock on Adama Traore has always been that he's a marvelous athlete, lightning fast, but lacking in finishing skills.  On Sunday, he put away two goals late with confident finishing to sink Man City in their home park.  We couldn't help but think of the scene from Happy Gilmore in which Happy, who could hit the ball a mile but couldn't putt for sh**, can now putt.  Last year's giant killers look to have found their form.  Wolves absorbed  a lot of pressure until Traore broke free and calmly deposited the ball in the goal in the 80th minute. 

Everton's rocky campaign sputters on as they had Seamus Coleman sent off for a second yellow at 56 minutes and saw Burnley get the game winner at 72 minutes.  Sure it's only eight weeks in but there are the Toffees, sitting in the relegation zone.  After this weekend, I guess it's no surprise that the top three managers in the sack race are Marco Silva (5/4), Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (2/1) and Mauricio Pochettino (5/1).  Wow, Steve Bruce isn't even top four anymore.

Arsenal handled Bournemouth 1-0 and have quietly worked their way back to 3rd.  Likewise, Chelsea hammered Southampton 4-1 and sit in 5th, equal on points with Leicester.  So, it's not like things are totally out of whack but it has been an interesting season so far.


Union Shorthanded

The Union faced NYCFC without shuhBILLkoh (hurt his foot in warmups) and Santos so it wasn't exactly our most explosive line up of the season.  For about 70 minutes they stumbled around and trailed 0-2 on a massive defensive breakdown and an unlikely ricochet (set up by a giveaway at midfield).  They did rally some in the final 20 and did pull back a goal on a PK that was generated by invigorated offensive pressure.  But in the end it was still a 1-2 loss, their second in a row.  Worse, they seem to be adrift at exactly the wrong time.

Jim Curtin is taking heat in the comments sections again and that seems short-sighted to me.  They were not great in Columbus but that was their third road game in eight days.  For NYCFC (second best team in the league) he's already down a scorer with Santos out and he loses shuhBILLkoh in warmups - exactly what is he supposed to do?  People are already forgetting he made some bold line up moves at other points in the season.  They finished with the fifth best record in the league.  Shut up already.  Further evidence that the comments sections of every blog except this one are the seamy underbelly of the world.


MLS playoff Preview

So the playoffs are here.  You can get an explanation of the format here.  Note that it's all single matches now, no home and home series.  I believe the logic here was to give an advantage to teams with the better regular season record. The Union are strong favorites to beat the Red Bulls at home.  Maybe, but this will be a tough match.  Probably better than getting Toronto or New England. 


A Reunion of Sorts

Two legends of the game meet for the first time

BFS Scandanavian correspondent Philip S was in Portugal and met up with another of the game's greats.  My understanding is that Philip did all the talking.



More International Break

So the club scene takes a break for some international stuff.  Plenty of European Championship qualifiers, some you can actually see on ESPN or one of its 17 spin-offs.  Netherlands - Northern Ireland was a great match yesterday with the Dutch storming back from 0-1 to take a 3-1 lead with three goals after 80 minutes, including two in stoppage time. 

The USMNT is back in action with some semi-meaningful matches.  Welcome to the Concacaf Nations League. This is a similar competition to the European Nations League which is designed to replace friendlies with something that has at least some consequences.  Results in the Nations League will determine the 16 teams that qualify for the 2021 Concacaf Gold Cup.  It also provides for additional matches for the weaker teams in the federation, who always have trouble scheduling friendlies.  The US has matches vs Cuba (Friday at 7 pm on FS1) and Canada (Tuesday at 7:30 on ESPN2).  Yeah, it's sort of a made-up competition but it still beats friendlies.

Up A Certain Creek Without A Paddle

NBCSN commentator Jim Beglin summed up Newcastle's situation well.  Though he was referring to the situation on Sunday, he might as well have been talking about the prospects for the season.

Newcastle players realize they are in real trouble as Hayden
has just been red carded [Getty Images]

The Magpies weren't awful for much of the first half but were still down 0-1.  That said, their play gave no indication that they would get anything from the match, just that they wouldn't get blown away.  Then Isaac Hayden made an unfortunate challenge that earned him a straight red card.  Consider it a text book example of excessive force.  For a while Newcastle hung around but when Jamie Vardy netted the second goal at 54 minutes, you had the feeling the floodgates were about to open.  And they did.  When the dust settled, it was an 0-5 loss for the Magpies.  From 65 minutes on, it was really hard to watch.

Now certainly Hayden's rash challenge put Newcastle under the gun.  But they were pretty much irrelevant from the start.    Bruce switched to a 4-2-3-1 this week; looks like that is another formation we can rule out.  Not much he has done has worked.  He now rises to the second spot in the EPL Sack Race, behind only Everton's Marco Silva. Of course, Ashley may be too cheap to fire Bruce, plus sacking him now is a clear admission that it was a mistake.  Up a creek indeed.


Which Keeper Error Was Most Egregious?

1. Sheffield United were giving Liverpool fits through 70 minutes with some heroic defending.  They saw that hard work go down the drain when Wijnaldum's shot trickled through Dean Henderson's legs.  You can see the tough moment here.  In the lingo, the Blades gave a good account of themselves but came away with an 0-1 loss.

2. Tottenham were down a man but up a goal at home to Southampton and seemed in relative control despite playing shorthanded.  Then Hugo Lloris committed this gaffe. Fortunately for him, Kane and his teammates bailed him out with a great piece of build up play.  In fact, that goal was so good (and critical), we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Spurs hung on for a 2-1 win that steadies the ship for them (well at least until Tuesday's 2-7 thrashing by Bayern Munich).

3. You already know the score of Leicester - Newcastle, but one of the five tallies was this goal by Jamie Vardy.  You have to say that is keeper error - you can't get beat near post like that.

I swear there was another on Saturday but I can't remember now.  Union keeper Andre Blake may have messed up but that's another story we'll discuss below.


A Mid-Table Match?

I saw more than one pundit suggest that the Man United - Arsenal contest was, ahem, not worthy of teams that consider themselves top six material.  One suggested it was like watching a mid-table match.  Oooh, that'll leave a mark.  But they're right.  It was a competitive 1-1 draw but lacked any level of quality.

As I hinted at in last week's post, I had some hope that Aston Villa - Burnley would be a good watch.  It was.  In Gary Birtles's words it was "entertaining, fractious and niggling."  Unfortunately for the Villans they twice coughed up the lead.  Fortunately for the Villans, the 2-2 draw was a point they probably hadn't necessarily counted on.  Everton weren't terrible against Man City but took a 1-3 loss anyway.

I will concede that my prediction that the neutral would be largely disappointed last weekend was off base.  Pretty much every match (except Newcastle of course) was highly entertaining.


Worst Away Kit

Southampton's Danny Ings - I make these uniforms look good

Where does Southampton get their uniforms?  They are like the University of Oregon football team - an experimental playground for some kit manufacturer.  Also in the running are Man City, who appeared to have used old Houston Astro uniforms to make their away kits.  Check out the pictures below and tell me Nolan Ryan wouldn't look at home in a Man City kit.

Names

Bjorn Engels plays for Aston Villa.  During Saturday's contest with Burnley I kept wondering who marks Engels.  Just some word play for the political economists who might be reading the blog.


Union Pass Up Golden Opportunity

Sunday's "fun" continued into early evening as the Union faced Columbus on the road.  Not thinking it was a guaranteed win but was definitely believing they would get something out of the match.  A tepid first half ended scoreless; the U's passing couldn't have been worse.  The second half was delayed 30 minutes by lightning.  Might have been better if the storm continued.  Despite maybe have a little better of the play, the Union conceded the first goal in the 69th minute.  Watch the video here and tell me whether you think Blake might belong on the earlier list of keeper gaffes.  Looks like the ball goes under his arm.  A scant four minutes later, a second goal meant the Union weren't getting any points.

And all this was happening as results elsewhere couldn't have gone any better.  NYCFC lost at New England while Atlanta could only scrounge up a draw with Montreal.  So for a short while, the Union were in command of their own destiny.  With a win at Columbus, this Saturday's match with NYCFC would have offered the chance to win the East and get a first round bye.  A win or draw would have made second a real possibility.  Now, first is gone and the Union must do better than Atlanta on Sunday to grab second. 


A Brief Comment on Champions League

Generally better sledding for the EPL teams for Match Day 2 of the group stage.  Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea all got wins.  Spurs got hammered.


Doesn't Get Any Easier

Newcastle have an excellent chance to build on the momentum from the Leicester mauling as they take on Man United Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN); certainly the Red Devils have been tough to figure out so far but even at their worst, they are in a different league than the Magpies.  A draw would be a miracle.

The weekend has another early start with Brighton hosting Tottenham at 7:30 on Saturday (NBCSN); Spurs are favored and really need to bounce back from the Bayern debacle.  The 10 am TV game is Liverpool - Leicester.  For the third time in four weeks, the Foxes' credentials as a top six candidate will be tested; except, how many teams beat Liverpool at Anfield?  Right, so maybe it's not a fair test.  The other 10 am matches might actually be more competitive.  Burnley-Everton is a solid mid-table clash while Norwich-Aston Villa and Watford - Sheffield United have implications for the relegation battle.  You'll need NBC Gold to check them out.  Saturday's NBC feature match is a London derby with Crystal Palace "traveling" to West Ham; every reason to think that's competitive too.

For some reason the schedulers crammed in three matches at 9 am on Sunday.  Man City vs Wolves is the TV game (NBCSN) and probably the one I would have gone with.  Last year Wolves were top six beaters and after a slow start may be finding their feet again.  Arsenal - Bournemouth and Southampton - Chelsea don't sound all that thrilling but I said that about a bunch of last week's games and look how they turned out.  Again, you'll need NBC Gold to see them.

And speaking of building on negative momentum, the Union have to face NYCFC in their final regular season contest.  You would like to see them do well here and head into the playoffs with some confidence.  At least it's at home.  As we said earlier, second place is still up for grabs but they need a better result than Atlanta get at home vs New England.  Right now, the Union's likely opponent in the first round is Toronto, though it could be any of New England, DC United or Red Bulls.

A preemptive note about the assessing the Union's season.  Certainly, if they were to win the first round playoff match, few will dispute this was a good season for the Union.  But I'd like to counsel against dissing the season if they lose that match.  This is the American obsession with playoffs at work again.  The Union will finish the season with between the 3rd and 5th best record in the MLS (Minnesota play Seattle so at most one can catch the Union).  In most other soccer leagues, a top five finish in a 24-team league would be considered an excellent year.  Regardless of the playoff results, I'd argue this was a major step forward for the franchise and a solid season.

Somehow I have managed to stay on top of the IAAF World Championships (which continue through the weekend) and most of the soccer as well.  Obviously, something isn't getting done and I guess I'll find out soon enough what it is.