You Cannot Win If You Do Not Win

Kind of a bust to the end of the season, excitement wise.  Recall that the only two things up for grabs were the final Champions League spot and 17th place in the table (i.e. the last spot safe from relegation).  Chelsea needed to win and get help from others to claim the former while Swansea needed to win and get help from others to avoid relegation.  Well, neither made it through step one, winning their own matches.  What's the old joke, God tells the praying person to help him out by at least buying the lottery ticket first?

Conte - I hate my job

Chelsea were thoroughly dismantled at St. James' Park by a Newcastle squad that looked like they had everything to play for.  Pre-match Conte looked like he needed his morning coffee; during the match he just looked like a sad puppy dog (see picture left).  Is an FA Cup win over Man United enough to save his job?  I didn't see the Swansea-Stoke match but metrics at 538 suggest it should have been a win for the Swans so maybe they were really unlikely.  Still, I am left with the thought that if you can't beat Stoke in your home park maybe the Championship Division is where you belong at the moment.

So it's West Brom, Stoke and Swansea down, Man City (which did hit 100 points), Man United, Tottenham and Liverpool for Champions League, and Chelsea, Arsenal and Burnley for the NIT Europa League.


Happy Days Tyneside

What an exclamation point to end the season for the Magpies.  Thoroughly in command from the start, the 3-0 scoreline seems about right.  The win sealed up 10th place, a finish that would have seemed improbable back in August and impossible back in December.  And IMHO opinion, you can see Rafa Benitez's fingerprints all over this result.  Let's go back to 2016, when he takes a big gamble, making Jamaal Lascelles (who had yet to turn 23) captain of the squad.  Look at his choices for player acquisitions, while keeping in mind the budget he was given - Dubravka, LeJeune, Diame, Kenedy, Merino, Yedlin.  Some of the seeming bust choices aren't as bad as they might seem either - Atsu, Joselu, Murphy.  Clearly more hits than misses.  And players like Shelvey, Dummit and Diame clearly got better under his tutelage.  In my book, Benitez should be second behind Burnley's Sean Dyche but ahead of Pep Guardiola in the Manager of the Year balloting.

As heady as the last few months have been, the future still hangs in the balance.  That Ashley would sell the club right now - or more accurately, that someone would meet his asking price - seems highly unlikely.  So it comes down to whether Ashley makes a commitment to Benitez and a transfer budget and whether Benitez believes anything Ashley says.  If Rafa stays, it means he believes the budget will be close enough to match his ambitions for Newcastle.  In that scenario, a top seven finish is clearly not a pipe dream.  If Rafa goes, all bets are off.  I doubt we find another manager that could do so much with so little.  In that scenario, Newcastle is likely to struggle to avoid relegation every year, and once they do go down, return might not be immediate.


Richest Payoff

The final is set for the Championship Division playoff final to determine which club from that league will be the third to be promoted to the EPL.  Wolverhampton and Cardiff City are already in by virture of their 1-2 finish in regular season play.  Fulham took care of Derby County in one semi, while Aston Villa edged Middlesbrough in the other.  So two sides that were in the EPL not so long ago will battle in what is generally considered the most lucrative contest in sports.  Estimates vary but many believe the marginal impact of promotion to be over $200 million.  No word from BFS co-founder Dennis as to whether he will dig out his Aston Villa paraphernalia should the Villans return.  Also, it appears that the EPL is a zero sum game with respect to Wales - Cardiff is in but Swansea out.


Europa

Will Griezmann be in Atleti colors next year?

Not a thriller but a decent win for Atletico Madrid over Marseille in the Europa League final.  To my eye, Marseille had the run of play but Antoine Greizmann will make you pay for the slightest mistake.  His finishing was simply clinical as he scored two to power the Mattressmakers to the title. Post match the Frenchman was cagey about reports that he might be headed to Barcelona, and not for summer vacation.

We kid about how Europa League has second class status compared to the Champions League but the achievement shouldn't be diminished.  You have to beat a lot of good sides to win the thing.


We Love VAR

This is at least the second time that VAR has come to the Union's rescue.  Clinging to a 0-1 lead and down a man after Cory Burke's ill-advised challenge, Impact defender Daniel Lovitz hauled down Fafa Picault chasing down a ball with only the keeper left.  Referee initially only showed yellow but upon further review, changed it to red.  Threat over, the Union went on to add another and get their first road win.  I never saw a replay that gave me a clear idea of how close Picault was to the ball in comparison to the keeper so I'll stay mum on whether it was a correct call.

And that was only one talking point for the 2-0 win.  First, Curtin made five changes to the starting 11.  Some were driven in part by injury (Burke for Sapong and Gaddis for Fabinho).  But others seemed to come down to recent form (McKenzie for Elliott, Picault for Accam, and Epps for Ilsinho).  Each had varying degrees of success.  Picault's speed is always an issue but he didn't seem to add much else.  McKenzie and Epps weren't great but made no mistakes.  Burke created serious havoc, both good and bad.  On offense, he provided new energy and his goal was high quality. But, he was also prone to losing the ball, leading to dangerous opportunities for Montreal and his silly challenge could have been costly had not Montreal also lost a man.  Gaddis was an unqualified success, possibly his best game ever.  His defense has always been steady but the knock has been that he doesn't provide much offense.  Not this time; he was forward a bunch and registered a shot and an assist without shirking his defensive responsibilities.

As we noted last week, Montreal is not the most formidable side the Union will face this year.  But, it is a road win coming at the end of three games in nine days.  Good on Curtin for shaking things up.


Taking A Few Weeks Off

For a variety of reasons, we're going to "rest" for the next couple of weeks.  I'll be out in Eugene doing live reporting for my other gig at the Prefontaine Classic.  The football schedule is on the quiet side for a little while.  And we'll be doing plenty of writing as the World Cup kicks in.

Don't forget FA Cup Final featuring match up between Man United and Chelsea this Saturday at 12:15 on Fox.  Story line for me is what happens to Conte afterwards; does a win or loss change anything?

The following Saturday there's a sweet doubleheader with the Championship Division playoff between Aston Villa and Fulham at noon and the Champions League final at 2:45.  Both are on a Fox network station I believe.

The Union will be quite active with matches vs Real Salt Lake (5/19), NJ Red Cows (5/26), Chicago (5/30), Atlanta (6/2) and Toronto (6/8).

Okay, so I overstated how quiet things will be.  But in comparison to the last few weeks, it is kind of slow.

Doors Opening and Closing

Weekend and mid-week fixtures served to, surprisingly quickly it seemed, settle most of the unresolved situations.  Let's review how things played out.  All times are approximate and EDT.

The margin by which Brighton get to stay in the EPL

4:40 Friday - Brighton claims safety via a surprise 1-0 upset of Man United.  Mourinho is also upset - at his players.  This result does not exist without goal line technology, as you can see here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  You can see how close it was in the picture at left and we doubt the referee or the AR would have called this a goal without the technology.

9:20 Saturday - Crystal Palace are in and Stoke are out after the Eagles come from behind 2-1 win.

11:50 Saturday - Bournemouth and Watford are now safe, and somehow, incredibly, West Brom are not yet eliminated.  Bournemouth and Watford went the easy route with wins over Swansea and Newcastle respectively.   And staring at elimination, West Brom somehow got a goal in stoppage time to best Tottenham 1-0 and stay alive, at least for another 90 minutes.  West Ham surprised Leicester 2-0 but were not safe yet.  Despite the loss to Bournemouth, Swansea still control their own fate and will survive by beating Southampton and Stoke in their final two fixtures.

2:20 Saturday - Southampton have just blown a chance to make a big step towards safety.  Leading 1-0, the Saints surrender a goal to Everton in the 96th minute and turn three points into one.  Not only do they remain at risk, the result has implications elsewhere.  That last minute goal means West Brom are still alive until at least Tuesday.  And West Ham are now safe.

Sunday - Nothing as dramatic as yesterday but Huddersfield grab a totally unexpected point from Man City, at the Etihad no less; it's a welcome point but they are still at serious risk.  Chelsea's 1-0 win over Liverpool means that the Blues are still in the hunt for a Champions League spot, close on the heels of both Tottenham and Liverpool.

The weekend ends with Huddersfield, Southampton, Swansea and West Brom not out of the woods.  The Baggies predicament is bad, as they need a Swansea-Southampton draw on Tuesday, a win next Sunday against Crystal Palace, a multiple goal loss by Southampton to Man City and a Swansea loss to Stoke.  BFS Oddsmaker, Lloyd Christmas, explains their situation.

Gabbiadini sends Southampton to safety

4:40 Tuesday - West Brom are out and Swansea on the ropes as Southampton grab a 1-0 win over the Swans in Wales.  Mark Hughes looks like a genius as he substitutes  striker Manolo Gabbiadini for defender Jan Bednarek after the latter takes a blow to the head; the Italian scores a mere four minutes after entering the pitch.

4:40 Wednesday - Huddersfield are in after a second straight improbable draw, this time against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  That result, combined with Tottenham's uninspiring 1-0 win over Newcastle, means Spurs are now guaranteed a place in next year's CL.

So all that's left to determine are the final relegation spot, which comes down to Southampton and Swansea and the final Champions League spot, which will go to either Liverpool or Chelsea.  A win or a draw for the Southampton against Man City OR a loss or draw for Stoke against Crystal Palace keeps Southampton up.  Even a Southampton loss and Swansea win would require a ten goal swing in goal differential to save the Swans; so a pair of 5-0 results would do it. Sure.

For the CL side of things, Liverpool get the spot with a win over Brighton or a Chelsea loss or draw to Newcastle.  A Liverpool draw and Chelsea win would leave them with equal points but Chelsea would have to eliminate a 15 goal differential; Newcastle defense has not been that shaky all year so it pretty much has to be a Chelsea win and Liverpool loss for the Blues to sneak in.


Manager of the Year

Recall last week we suggested that any of Rafael Benitez, Sean Dyche or Pep Guardiola would be worthy of the designation.  This week the nominations came out and those three are on the list.  Also nominated were Roy Hodgson, Chris Hughton and Jurgen Klopp.  Also not bad candidates but I would stick with one of my original three - probably going with Dyche.


Here To Stay

With the Huddersfield draw, all three of this year's promoted sides - Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield - will stay up for another season in the EPL.  This has happened twice before since the EPL was formed in 1992.  Fulham, Bolton and Blackburn managed to stick around after the 2001-02 season while QPR, Norwich and Swansea did it in 2011-12.


A Nice, Civil Beatdown

That''s how The Philly Soccer Page described the Union 0-3 loss to Toronto FC.  We really do not need to elaborate.  Wednesday's 0-1 loss to Columbus was, actually I can't say because I only saw the highlights.  I had tried to set the DVR using the remote FIOS feature, which has worked fine in the past, but was unable to record this match.  Should I be grateful that FIOS messed up and saved me from two hours of bad soccer?  So the one-game winning streak ended and once again the team seems headed in the wrong direction.  I fear that when we look up after the World Cup ends in mid-July, the Union season will also be over.


BFS Home Sides

For those keeping score at home, you might note that BFS favorites - Newcastle and the Union -  lost four times between Friday and Wednesday, managing just one goal between them.  Yeah, good times.

The Newcastle viewing wasn't really all that bad, except for the first half at Watford.  The Magpies were lucky to be down just 0-2 at halftime but were clearly the better side when play restarted.  Ayoze Perez continues to frustrate and amaze; as bad as he was in the first half, his second half goal was a technical gem.  At Wembley, you could argue that for the most part, Newcastle were the better side, playing solid defense with surprisingly effective counter attacks in the 0-1 loss to Spurs.  The difference came down to Harry Kane being a higher quality finisher than anyone on Newcastle.  This is a known issue - Newcastle need to spring for a top level striker if they want to avoid the relegation battle every year.  Hopefully we will hear shortly that Benitez is signed for the long-term and upgrades are underway.

Turning to Union-on-Delaware, well, things just aren't that rosy.  Our new designated players - Accam and Dockal - simply aren't making a difference.  That's being kind, especially to Accam.  Jim O'Leary at Philly Soccer Page has this article arguing that the problem is not that the Union are cheap but rather how they spend the money.   You have to say he has a good point - the Union finished poorly last year so they spent about $1.5 million to add Accam and Dockal.  He also details other high cost acquisitions that have not paid off.  So they have spent money, just maybe not wisely.  Fair points in comments section that cheap can also mean failing to spend on human and physical infrastructure (e.g. scouting, training facilities, etc.).

The fire Jim Curtin drumbeat continues as well.  I have been mostly a defender, suggesting that he just doesn't have the same quality horses as the others.  But I am starting to be persuaded that maybe he does have to take some share of the blame if players are not improving under his tutelage. Trotting out the same lineup doesn't make a lot of sense either.  Might as well see if some other players might make a difference, or, if sitting out a few matches lights a fire under some of those not performing at their best.


Weekend

All EPL matches are Sunday at 10 am.  Four have potential consequences.  Liverpool host Brighton (NBC) needing a win or maybe just a draw to secure Champions League action next year.  Chelsea travel to Newcastle (NBCSN) and must win and hope for a good result Merseyside.  Southampton host Man City (SyFy) and would like a point but really just need to keep the Citizens goal scorers from running amok.  And Swansea play Stoke in Wales (CNBC) and need their goal scorers to run amok while hoping for a favorable outcome down south.

The Union continue their road trip with a match in Montreal Saturday at 3 pm.  We'd love to see them get a draw out of this given that the Impact haven't exactly set the league on fire this year.  But, the Union have failed to secure a point in four tries on the road and have yet to score outside of Talen Energy Stadium.  So, we will not hold our breath.

Backing Into Safety

Matt Phillips celebrates scoring for West Brom
 Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters

Good thing there were several paths for Newcastle to finalize their spot in next year's Premier League.  Plan A, to take care of things ourselves by beating West Brom at home, fell through as they lost to the Baggies 0-1.  West Brom really didn't do all that much but Newcastle did even less. Not that the lads weren't trying hard, it was just that everything was off, especially the passing.  If Shelvey was still under consideration for the England WC squad, he probably isn't anymore.  Down on the south coast, Southampton was fashioning a tense 2-1 win over Bournemouth.  Fortunately Chelsea was able to turn back Swansea 1-0, a match played in a classic Wales downpour. That result drags Newcastle over the line.

With Newcastle officially safe from both relegation and Europa Cup, attention now turns to who's going to be on next year's squad.  Martin Dubravka looks like a, excuse the pun, keeper; Newcastle can make the deal permanent for 4 m or so and we can't imagine that won't happen.  Kenedy has played well and Benitez says he wants to keep him.  But it's Chelsea's decision if they want to sell - or loan him again - to Newcastle.  Islam Slimani often made a difference when he played.  But therein lies the rub.  He missed a lot of time due to injury and will now miss the rest of the season due to stupidity.  Letting his emotions get the better of him, he kicked Craig Dawson - in retaliation - and earned himself a three-game suspension.  Two problems with this.  First, he's going to miss the chance to show what he can do and second, Benitez has little tolerance for this behavior.  I don't see him returning.


Life at the Bottom

We mentioned West Brom and Southampton getting wins and Swansea a loss.  Stoke played Liverpool tough and grabbed a totally unexpected point with a 0-0 draw at Anfield.  Brighton also nicked an extra point on the road with a 0-0 draw at Burnley.  On the flip side, Huddersfield couldn't get anything at home against a seemingly rejuvenated Everton and West Ham fans returned to their disgruntled disposition after a 1-4 dismantling by Man City.  Crystal Palace continued their good run-in, dispatching Leicester 5-0; the Eagles had a 2-0 lead before Leicester had a man sent off and things deteriorated from there.

Here's the table:

Place	Team	GP	Pts	Diff	Remaining Games
11	Crystal Palace	36	38	-13	Stoke (A), West Brom
12	Bournemouth	36	38	-18	Swansea, Burnley (A)
13	Watford	36	38	-20	Newcastle, Man United (A)
14	Brighton	35	37	-15	Man U, Man City (A), Liverpool (A)
15	West Ham	35	35	-24	Leicester (A), Man United, Everton
16	Huddersfield	35	35	-29	Man City (A), Chelsea (A), Arsenal
17	Swansea	35	33	-25	Bournemouth (A), Southampton, Stoke
18	Southampton	35	32	-19	Everton (A), Swansea (A), Man City
19	Stoke	36	30	-33	Crystal Palace, Swansea City (A)
20	West Brom	36	28	-24	Tottenham, Crystal Palace

The BFS model, using 538 predictions, still has West Brom, Stoke and Southampton as the demotees.  But it doesn't take much to bring Swansea, Huddersfield or West Ham into the picture. There's a scenario in which West Ham, Huddersfield, Swansea and Southampton all finish with 35 points and relegation would come down to goal differential; Huddersfield, already at -29, would likely be the odd side out given that they finish with Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  Swansea, with home matches against Southampton and Stoke, seemingly control their own fate. Pretty wild that so many teams are still at risk.


Life at the Top

Man United pulled off the double of clinching a top four finish while pinning a loss on Arsenal in Arsene Wenger's final trip to Old Trafford.  A pretty spirited match seemed headed for a 1-1 draw before Fellaini headed in the game winner in the 91st minute.  Coupled with Tottenham's win on Monday, the loss means no top four finish for the Gunners again.  Speaking of Spurs, they were certainly uninspiring and at times looked vulnerable but managed a 2-0 win at home against Watford.  Good thing for them because Chelsea had closed to within two points.  Tottenham's prospects for a top four finish are enhanced by this Sunday's fixture between Chelsea and Liverpool - somebody's going to be dropping points.  And Liverpool, as we mentioned, already dropped points with their draw against Stoke.


We Are Entertained

Both the Champions League semi-final second legs provided thrills and spills.  On Tuesday, Real Madrid barely hung on for a 4-3 aggregate win over Bayern.  Recall that Real Madrid came home with a 2-1 lead, a nice cushion with the two away goals.  Bayern got one quickly but knew they needed at least one more.  Two first half tallies by Benzema seemingly put the match out of reach but James scored at 63 minutes to set up a thrilling finish.  And Bayern had chances to get that third score, which would have advanced them to the final on the away goal advantage.  Alas, it was not to happen and Real Madrid head to their third straight CL final.

Liverpool carried a 5-2 lead to Italy for the second leg against Roma.  And what a strange one this was.  Liverpool jumped early but Roma got one back quickly on a weird own goal in which Lovren nearly decapitated his teammate Milner with a clearance that ricocheted back into the net.  It's bizarre enough that we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Still, things seemed to be okay for Liverpool after Wijnaldum's tally at 25 minutes.  With the score at 2-2 (or 7-4 on aggregate), Roma got two late goals from Nainggolan to bring the final tally to 7-6 - the highest scoring CL series ever.  Liverpool wasn't really at risk of coughing up the match but it was still a good watch.

We would guess that RM will be the favorite in the final.


And More Entertainment

Think Dockal was happy after scoring game winner against
 DC United? Photo: Greg Caroccio/Philadelphia Union

Sitting with beers in a warm April sunshine at Talen Energy Stadium watching a lively contest between the Union and DC United, Jeff H and I were were almost willing to accept whatever result the Union could manage.  Fortunately, we got all the good stuff plus a 3-2 win for the homeside, the game winner coming from Borek Dockal from close range in the 72nd minute.

And this really is a better Union side than we've seen in many years (ever?).  The changes made in midfield are paying off with possession football that is 1) pleasing to the eye and 2) so much more effective than the dump and chase the Union have relied on for so many years.   It is leading to more scoring opportunities and you feel like eventually they are going to get converted into goals - like they did on Saturday.  Unfortunately, we still have a side that is so easily exposed on counterattack.  At one point midway through the second half, the score was 2-2 and the Union had like 15 shots and DC United two.  A function of youth in the back line?  Maybe but it seems like the whole team needs work on transition.

A smattering of boos for manager Jim Curtin at the start of the match. The frustration is understandable but is there really that much different he can be doing with the squad?  I will note that he started Ilsinho over Picault and got a goal out of it.  But if this is the range of options at his disposal, how much can you pin on Curtin right now?

Pot Meet Kettle

BFS Political Correspondent Philip Scott points out a developing story involving Donald Trump and the US bid to host the 2026 World Cup.  Details are here.  Perhaps concerned that he has damaged the US chances with a travel ban focused on Muslim-majority nations and the reference to many of the likely competing countries as "shit-hole nations," Trump tweeted a plea for support and questioned why the US should support nations that don't back our bid.  FIFA pointed out several of the organization's rules that prohibit this kind of lobbying.  Of course we know what kind of lobbying they do permit, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more.  Anyway, Trump being schooled by FIFA on ethics, well, you have to laugh I guess.


Relegation Watch

The weekend starts early with a Friday match featuring Man United at Brighton (3 pm on NBCSN).  Our recommended match of the week is Chelsea hosting Liverpool at 11 am on Sunday (NBCSN).  A loss or draw for Chelsea pretty much ends their CL hopes; even a win leaves them depending on the kindness of strangers because their goal differential is quite a bit worse than either Liverpool or Tottenham.

Saturday TV features three relegation specials, starting with Stoke-Crystal Palace at 7:30 (NBCSN), Bournemouth-Swansea at 10 (NBCSN) and Everton-Southampton at 12:30 (NBC).  Things could be much clearer or much more unsettled based on results in those matches.  On Sunday Man City continue their charge for 100 points as they host Huddersfield (8:30 on NBCSN). If for some reason you're not interested in Chelsea-Liverpool at 11, you can flip over to CNBC to catch Arsenal-Burnley as they fight over sixth place in the table.

We'll likely take in Newcastle at Watford on NBC Gold on Saturday at 10 am with the "hide scores" function engaged so we can go back and see the more relevant stuff.  Leicester-West Ham is also on NBC Gold.

Midweek matches include the dream relegation match-up of Swansea-Southampton on Tuesday at 2:45.  Wednesday includes four more matches, including Tottenham-Newcastle at 3 pm.  The EPL website doesn't have TV listings as of publication.

By the time you read this, you'll probably know the result of the Europa League semi-final between Atletico and Arsenal, also known as Arsenal's last chance for Champions League football next season.  At 1-1 heading to Madrid, we think the Gunners are facing long odds to make it to the final.

The Union have another Friday night match, this time in Toronto at 8 pm.  Toronto sit in last in the East but we fear that this is a sleeping giant; also, the Union are 0-2-0 on the road.  Thinking we'll be lucky to get a point out of this one.

You Can't Win Them All

Whoa, got spoiled there.  Newcastle played well enough at Goodison Park but came up short in the 0-1 loss to Everton.  Not necessarily a pretty match but kudos to both sides for playing with serious intensity.  Nobody in flip-flops yet for that one.  I guess both have some things to play for and it's possible that Everton was serious about not having the Magpies pass them in the table.

Much in the news about next season. Will Rafa sign on for more years?  Can Ashley offer him assurances of decent transfer budget?  Will anyone be interested in meeting Ashley's steadily rising price (400 million) for the club?  The most disturbing part of recent stories is that Ashley is viewing Newcastle's impending mid-table finish as vindication of his strategy.  Well, yeah, if you have Rafa Benitez managing your club.  But he's not going to put up with the penny pinching forever and then where will you be?

I can see a pretty good case for Rafa as Manager of the Year.  But I'd be hard pressed to argue too hard against Sean Dyche at Burnley.  It's not like he got infinite resources either.  It will probably go to Guardiola though.  That's not a terrible choice either but I feel like Dyche or Benitez did more with less.


Form Holds

Not too much in the way of upsets last weekend, except maybe West Brom's 2-2 draw with Liverpool.  Technically, I don't think the Baggies would have been eliminated without the point but the home fans did enjoy the late equalizer from Rondon, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  West Ham put up a stubborn fight against Arsenal but eventually collapsed to a 1-4 defeat.  I know I watched the Watford - Crystal Palace 0-0 draw but can't remember anything about it.  Stoke grabbed at point at home against Burnley with a 1-1 draw but remain a leading relegation candidate.  Man City pummeled Swansea 5-0, leaving the Swans as the side closest to the bottom three, probably at least three or points from safety.


Other Stuff

Two pretty decent semi-finals, at least for the neutral.  Tottenham started well but you have to say that Man United deserved the 2-1 win.  And Southampton put up a good fight but Chelsea were just better and move on with a 2-0 win.

Salah with muted celebration after goal against his former club Roma

Jurgen Klopp must be stewing.  Liverpool had a 5-0 lead on Roma in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final but coughed up two late goals.  They are probably still okay but giving up two road goals keeps the door open, even if just a little, for Roma.  At 5-0, the tie was done.  At 5-2, maybe not so much.  Probably should have mentioned Mohamed Salah in the previous section, since he tied the EPL record with his 31st goal of the season against West Brom.  He added two in the Roma match to bring his Champions League total to 10.  Yeah, he's having a good year.  In the other semi, Real Madrid took a 2-1 lead at Bayern in a match that was feisty; there were several crunching tackles and a general snarl to the proceedings.

In Europa action, Antoine Griezmann's spoiled what should have been a good night for Arsene Wenger with a late goal to get Atletico Madrid a 1-1 draw with Arsenal at the Emirates.  This is a terrible result for the Gunners on several levels.  First, they played most of the match up a man after Vrsaljko (not a typo) got two yellows in the first nine minutes; despite lots of possession and shots, they only managed one goal.  With that man advantage they only got a draw at home.  And just as damaging, they surrendered a road goal, which means Atleti is in the driver's seat heading back to Spain.   


We Watch So You Don't Have To

Well that was a stinker, probably the worst Union performance of the season.  The 0-2 loss in Dallas is extremely flattering to the visitors.  Without the exploits of Andre Blake in goal, this was a 0-4 or 0-5 loss.  Absolutely awful in just about all aspects.  Maybe a bit of a tough call on Trusty for the PK but he gave the ref the chance to blow the whistle.  And I certainly hope the attitude isn't, well, it might have been a different game without that call.

Bob K points out that last year's MLS Cup finalists - Toronto and Seattle - are currently in last place in their respective divisions with fewer points than the Union.  Somehow that is not providing much comfort right now. 


Virtual Chester vs Real Man City

Got a bit ahead on the virtual calendar, where it is now June.  Chester have completed a very satisfying season, arguably a better one than the real life Man City.  We won the EPL with 99 points; Man City has clinched the title and have 90 points with four matches to play.  Likely that they'll exceed our point total.  They also won the League Cup, which my Chester squad failed to do.  But, on successive Saturdays, Chester won the FA Cup and the Champions League, which Man City could not do.  The board is certainly happy and have offered me a new contract with a raise from $1.4m a year to $6.0m a year.  Our transfer budget for next year will be $87 million.  I think our biggest issue is that we still don't have the revenue base to offer competitive salaries in comparison to the big clubs like Man United, Barcelona, etc.  So far we have not had trouble keeping our stars but they are still young; I wonder how it will play out when those contracts expire.


Three Ways to Clinch Safety

If I have this right, everybody but Man City still have something to play for this weekend.  Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham have not clinched their Champions League spots yet.   Chelsea and Arsenal have clinched Europa League spots but still have outside (slim?) chances of snatching a Champions League position.  Burnley can lock up their Europa League spot this week with a win.  Everton and Leicester are safe from relegation but still have outside (slim?) chances of snatching the last Europa League spot.  And everybody from Newcastle on down are not mathematically safe from relegation yet.

Newcastle head into the weekend with three different routes to reach mathematical safety from relegation.  The simplest route is to get a win or draw against West Brom at St. James' Park (10 am Saturday on CNBC).  We have every reason to think this is achievable.  And really, if you can't beat West Brom at home, well, your EPL credentials are a bit suspect anyway.  But this being Newcastle, we need to review the other options.  One is for Southampton to lose or draw their match with Bournemouth (10 am Saturday on NBCSN).  At 538, they have the Saints as a pretty healthy favorite so we'll go to Plan C, which is Swansea getting anything less than a win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (12:30 on Saturday on NBC); that seems a bit more likely.

Other TV games include Liverpool - Stoke (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN), West Ham - Man City (9:15 Sunday on NBCSN), Man United - Arsenal (11:00 Sunday on NBCSN) and Tottenham - Watford (2:45 Monday on NBCSN).  The Man United - Arsenal fixture will mark Arsene Wenger's farewell to Old Trafford and perhaps the last chance for Mourinho to taunt him.

I'll be back to Talen Energy on Saturday to see the Union take on a DC United side that doesn't look much better than us.  This would be a really good time to get three points.

Don't forget the second legs of the Champions League and Europa semi final ties midweek.

All that EPL and European football will wrap up in late May, allowing us maybe a week or two to get ready for the World Cup.  Really hoping that the USMNT can get to the knockout stage.  What? Oh, never mind.

Finding A $100 Bill

Know that feeling when you pull out a pair of jeans you haven't worn in awhile and find a $100 bill in one of the pockets? Yeah, me neither. So I can only speculate as to whether that feeling would match my emotions after Newcastle's solid 2-1 win over Arsenal.  In retrospect, maybe this wasn't out of left field.  Arsenal had played in Moscow on Thursday night, left several stars at home (e.g. Ozil), have struggled some on the road and seem all in for the Europa League to the possible exclusion of the EPL games.  Maybe the Magpies were a bit lucky as well, as the 538 metrics suggest the Gunners should have scored more goals.  Whatever, I don't care how the $100 got there, I'm going to enjoy it.

Matt Ritchie scores game winner vs Arsenal (AFP Photo)

And while it's true that maybe Arsenal didn't make the most of their chances, there was nothing cheap about either of the Newcastle goals, especially the first.  Nine players touched the ball in the build-up, which was capped by a 50-yard pass from Shelvey to Gayle, who controlled the ball then sent it wide to Yedlin, who crossed it to the streaking Perez, who slotted it past Cech.  I'm biased but the announcers seemed to like it too as you can see and hear
here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  And another thing, Newcastle have allowed the 7th fewest goals in the EPL.

With the relegation fairly settled at this point (there is a worst case scenario in which Newcastle are relegated), we can now return to the sale of the club.  Except this may have gotten more difficult.  Recall that Mike Ashley spurned what he viewed as low-ball offers when the club was threatened with relegation in hopes of a better price should they survive.  Smart or not, he has won that bet and the selling price must be higher, maybe as much as 350 million.  Will there be offers? Will he play hard ball? Will Rafa stick around for this nonsense again?  Newcastle are poised to become a top tier side but it won't happen with Ashley at the helm.


Arsene to Be Gone

BFS La Liga European Correspondent Michael B alerted me this morning to the news that Arsene Wenger is stepping down at the end of this season.  As a Magpie fan, trying not to take this too personally but Wenger has been under fire for some time now and he only announces he's leaving after Arsenal lost to Newcastle.  Are they saying we can tolerate a lot of things but losing to Newcastle, that's the last straw.  Here's a research project - which team has been most often the last loss before a manager got fired?  BFS staff will get right on it...


It's Not You, It's Them

Yet another clever promo from NBC, this time about relegation.  Best use of a Chicago song since, well probably ever.  So where do we stand after the weekend and mid-week matches, not all of which went according to form.

Huddersfield and Crystal Palace put some distance between themselves and the bottom three.  Didn't see the Huddersfield match but one of the English papers suggested it was tense but low quality; a late goal got the Terriers a 1-0 win over Watford and we guess the fans could care less how good the match was.  Crystal Palace-Brighton was a good watch, with both sides playing like their EPL lives depended on it; the Eagles early strikes were enough to carry them to a 3-2 win.  But Brighton then grabbed an unexpected point with a draw against Tottenham.  Swansea's 1-1 draw with Everton was predicted but the point was still valuable.  West Ham could have buried Stoke while enhancing their own chances to stay up.  Instead, they were lucky to grab a point with Andy Carroll's goal in stoppage time, a cruel ending for Stoke.

Southampton defenders ponder three points lost

But the cruelest blow of all had to be at Saint Mary's Stadium, where Southampton carried an improbable 2-0 lead into the 70th minute.  The three points would have been massive for the Saints.  But Chelsea goals at 70,75 and 78 minutes (two from Giroud) took the three to none.  One might think they never had visions of any points to begin with so they are no worse off.  I dunno.  That kind of loss has to leave a mark.  The Saints did get a point out of a trip to Leicester - a totally boring 0-0 draw - so the week wasn't a total loss.  But everyone around them got points, even West Brom, who stunned Man United at Old Trafford on Monday.  The three points for the Baggies are probably too little too late for them. No, the result was probably more noteworthy in that it clinched the EPL title for Man City, ironically when most of their players were on the golf course, not the soccer pitch.

Liverpool kept on rolling with a 3-0 win over Bournemouth while Tottenham's push for a top four spot temporarily stalled in a 1-3 loss to Man City and the draw with Brighton.

With our focus on the top four, I forgot to look at developments in qualification for Europa.  EPL gets three spots - League Cup winner, FA Cup winner, and 5th place in the EPL.  Well the League Cup went to Man City, who are already qualified for Champions League.  So that means 6th place in the table will get you a place in Europa League.  And the FA Cup is down to Man United, Tottenham, Chelsea or Southampton.  Excluding Southampton, these sides are already going to make either Champions League or Europa.  So, unless Southampton win the FA Cup, 7th in the EPL table is also going to get you a Europa spot.  Right now 6th and 7th are held by Arsenal at 54 points and Burnley at 52 points.  Leicester are nine back and Everton 10 back.  That puts Burnley's 2-1 win over Leicester last weekend in a different light.  Just for fun we'll note that Newcastle are still mathematically in the hunt as well.

Note that should Arsenal win this year's Europa League, they will compete in the Champions League next year but the EPL will not get another slot for Europa.  My read of the rules also suggests that the Gunners would not bump any of the other EPL sides out of the Champions League.  Clear as mud, right?


Accam's Razor

It's a philosophical construct that proposes that the simplest explanation for the Union's struggles is that the player they obtained in the off-season to boost the offense has yet to score a goal this season.  That would be a bit unfair to David Accam but certainly has a grain of truth.  He had at least three good chances on Friday night in the the 0-2 loss to Orlando but couldn't convert any of them.  Friday the 13th indeed.  The Union started brightly enough, controlling the midfield and creating plenty of chances, which went for naught.  Then the inevitable quick counter from Orlando makes it 0-1 at 38 minutes and things went downhill from there.  Orlando added a second right before half.  Though there were no more goals, it was still a horror show as the Union really didn't generate much in the second half.


Better Viewing Through Technology

Michael B demonstrates proper use of dual monitor technology

Dual monitors were the greatest advance in staying current on football results for us office bound types.  You could stream a match on one while working on your spreadsheet or document on the other. What could be better?  Well, some with greater foresight than me are pushing this concept to even greater heights.  Why limit yourself?  As Michael B demonstrates in the photo to the right,  you can stream La Liga on one screen and EPL on the other. No more of these forced choices, you can have it all.
 

Back to FA Cup

This is a mixed competition weekend, with the EPL schedule reduced to accommodate the FA Cup semi final matches.  In the first semi, Man United takes on Tottenham at 12:15 Saturday afternoon.  The match will be at "neutral" Wembley, which of course has been Spurs home field all year.  There has been some griping about this, though to his credit, I did not see Mourinho complaining.  Ah, but the Special One was making news anyway, suggesting he might bench some players after the West Brom result.  He's already softened that stance after a midweek 2-0 win over Bournemouth so who knows.  Probably a good match to check out.

The other semi is Chelsea-Southampton at 10 am on Sunday.  Is this a cruel joke or what?  A week after the Saints cough up a 2-0 lead to the Blues, they get to face them again.

The abbreviated EPL  schedule is littered with matches of consequence to the relegation battle and maybe the chase for the Europa League.  Saturday has two matches on NBCSN - West Brom vs Liverpool (7:30) and Watford - Crystal Palace (10:00).  The Hornets are probably safe but can't seem to put the issue to bed; Palace really needs a point or three to get some distance from the bottom three.

Sunday includes Arsenal hosting West Ham (8:30 NBCSN), Stoke-Burnley (8:30 NBC Gold) and Man City - Swansea (11 on NBCSN).  Not the most friendly of fixtures for the relegation candidates.

The shortened schedule concludes with Everton - Newcastle at 3 pm on Monday, curiously only available on NBC Gold (update - looks like it's on NBCSN).  At this point, the match may have more meaning as a tryout for England's World Cup squad.  We Magpie fans have been wondering about Gareth Southgate's disinclination to include either Lascelles or Shelvey in his squad.  I will grudgingly admit that Maguire and Tarkowski have better ratings than Lascelles but what about leadership?  Hasn't the rap against England in WC play been that they have the talent but somehow can't get the job done on the pitch?  Shelvey is a tougher call.  He can be mercurial, brilliant passing one minute, stupid fouls the next.  But under Benitez, I think he's gotten much steadier. 

For the Union, things just get tougher.  They have a road match against FC Dallas, who have yet to lose this year.  Jack Elliott is listed as a probable starter so the injury he picked up last week must not have been too serious.  Nicking a point here would be an excellent result.

Finding A $20 Bill

Shelvey gives Newcastle the lead (Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

You know that feeling when you pull out a pair of jeans you haven't worn in awhile and find a $20 in the pocket?  That's what Newcastle's 2-1 win at Leicester felt like.  I secretly harbored hope that we would nick a point in this match but I wasn't really counting on a result.  The Magpies certainly came out brightly enough and when Shelvey scored at 18 minutes off a pass from Perez I immediately started thinking about a point.  Perez added to the lead with an improbable goal at 75 minutes and three points seemed assured.  Ah, you know that's not the Newcastle way.  Vardy scored at 83 minutes and the rest of the way was a bit shaky. But, the defense did hold and the $20 three points were ours. 

Although mathematically safety is not assured at the point, Newcastle sit 10th in the table and are 10 points clear of relegation.  There will need to be some serious upsets, and lots of them, for the Magpies not to stay up at this point.


The Bloom Is Not Off the Rose

Well that was a crappy seven days for Man City.  First there was last Wednesday's Champions League blowout loss at Liverpool.  Then they blew a 2-0 lead at home to Man United and failed to clinch the EPL on Saturday.  The trifecta was completed with a 1-2 loss at home to Liverpool which ended their Champions League hopes.  No quad, no triple, just a lousy double (EPL and League Cup). I would argue that this shouldn't cheapen the quality of Man City's season given the ease with which they won the league.  This is still a remarkable season.


Lessening the Drama

A mere few weeks ago we were looking at a tight battle for the Champions League berths and a congested race to avoid relegation.  Now, things are looking more settled.  Losers to Tottenham last weekend, Chelsea dropped more points as they could only manage a 1-1 draw with West Ham.  The top four really don't look in doubt anymore.  Stoke and Southampton lost to Tottenham and Arsenal respectively while others above were all getting a point.  Crystal Palace again passed up a chance to make a bold move towards safety as they ceded a late goal at Bournemouth in a 2-2 draw; still the point was helpful.  Either Brighton or Huddersfield could have made similar strides but the 1-1 draw did give them each a point.  And Swansea took a point with a late goal to rescue at draw at West Brom.  The BFS model is showing that Brighton and Huddersfield are the sides most likely to save West Brom, Stoke or Southampton from relegation, but those three remain clear favorites to go down. 



This Week in Refereeing Controversy

Turns out Antonio Mateu Lahoz is Spanish for Michael Dean

Down 1-3 against Liverpool, Man City had appeared to score late in the first half of the second leg only to see it ruled out for offside.  Except it wasn't.  Here is the play.  Some commentators were suggesting it came down to an interpretation of whether Milner made a deliberate play on the ball.  But turns out that's not relevant at all.  The ball went from deBruyne's chip into the box to keeper Karius' punch out of the ball which then came off Milner (deliberate or not deliberate) to Sane.  The only questions here are whether Sane was offside when deBruyne played the ball and whether there was an intervening touch by a Man City player before the ball got to Sane.   Pretty clearly the answers are no and no.   At 2-3 does the second half play out differently?  Who knows.  Here at BFS our philosophy is that the ref doesn't cost you the game.  That said, we can't help but note that Antonio Mateu Lopez looks to be one of those refs who somehow always inserts himself into the match.


The Whole Was Less Than the Sum of the Parts

While we can't find too much fault with individual performances, the fact is the Union could only manage a 1-1 draw at home against a mediocre San Jose side.  They were totally in command of the midfield thanks to Dockal (easily his best game so far), Med and Bedoya.  Fafa Picault certainly provided a dynamic attacking presence down both wings.  And on the whole, the defense was reasonably well-organized.  The problem was that the crosses never got to their destination or the shots never got made. Also, the Union looked susceptible to the counterattack, allowing one goal on the counter and dodging the bullet in a few other cases.  Still very early in the season but we should know by now that home draws just don't get you to the playoffs.


Champions League Chaos

You already know that Man City was ousted.  Barcelona, seemingly in command with a 4-1 lead, lost the second leg 0-3 against Roma and were eliminated on the away goal tie breaker.  Real Madrid was seconds away from extra time after blowing a 3-0 lead to Juventus; a late foul (justified IMHO) in the box gave Ronaldo the chance to win it with a PK and he did.  In the last quarterfinal, Bayern took care of a stubborn Sevilla.  By the time you read this, the draw for the semis should be out.


Don't Say There's Nothing On

Somehow, NBC has managed to get eight of this weekend's 10 matches on TV.  Only Burnley-Leicester and Huddersfield-Watford are relegated to NBC Gold.  For my money, the match of the weekend is Crystal Palace - Brighton; like many of these matches between relegation candidates, a win for either would be massive but even a draw moves them away from danger.  I have Palace winning this won. It's on NBCSN at 10 Saturday morning.  Next I'll be focused on West Ham-Stoke on Monday at 2:45 (NBCSN); if Stoke plan to escape even a draw here won't be enough while the Hammers could put their relegation threat to bed with a win.

Tottenham-Man City is certainly a top-tier matchup but may not mean that much in terms of overall placing (Saturday 2:45 NBCSN).  The other top sides have what look like winnable fixtures; Man United is home to West Brom (Sunday at 11 on NBCSN), Liverpool host Bournemouth (Saturday 12:30 on NBC) and Chelsea travel to Southampton (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN).

Newcastle will take on Arsenal Sunday morning at 8:30 (NBCSN).  I never count on any points when the Magpies take on the Gunners.  Usually I count on a thrashing too.  Maybe things have changed but I doubt it.  Swansea-Everton (Saturday at 10 on CNBC) rounds out the schedule.

The Union host Orlando on Friday night.  Presumably this is a side the Union will be fighting with for a playoff spot.  A draw (or loss) here would be an early sign that we're not a playoff team.

Big Steps - Forward and Backward

The run-in still has a way to go but a few more EPL teams made major strides towards sealing their fates - good or bad.  In MLS, the Union found the air pretty thin in Colorado.


The Winners

Perez celebrates game-winner vs Huddersfield

The two biggest winners this week look to be Newcastle and Tottenham.  The Magpies dominated play but typically struggled with finishing in a 1-0 win over Huddersfield at SJP.  Nothing cheap about the goal from Perez with a big assist from Kenedy, seen here in this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Major props to Kenedy, who had an otherwise unremarkable day, for the poise to pick out the pass rather than taking the shot himself.

So we all know about the difference between correlation and causation.  Still, I present the following numbers for Newcastle:

                                             Points PG      Goals scored PG      Goals allowed PG
During Dummett's injury:               .94                     1.00                       1.53
Since his return:                          1.42                     1.00                         .92

Yes, things have been much better since Paul Dummett returned to Newcastle's back line.  WhoScored.com has his average game rating at 6.93; on the Newcastle squad, only Kenedy, Lascelles and Lejeune are higher. 

The three points take Newcastle to 35 total and 538 now lists Newcastle with less than a 1% of going down.  The BFS model says 33 points will be enough to stay up this year.  Three more points would be good to provide some cushion should there be some upsets in the final weeks.  The schedule is not promising in that regard but a home match against West Brom might do the trick.

Tottenham took a big three points from Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, giving them an eight point cushion over the Blues for a top four finish.  A poor decision from Lloris put Spurs down 0-1 but a sterling strike from Eriksen froze Caballero and leveled things right at half time.  Two tallies from Dele took care of things for Tottenham in the second half.  There really was little doubt about the better side here.  Now 538 has Spurs with greater than 99% chance of a top four finish.

We'll add West Ham to the list of winners with their 3-0 thumping of Southampton.  On paper this was a much closer match; the 538 prediction was 40%-34% for WHU and I had it as draw.  This was one of those six point matches and the win moved the Hammers five points clear of the relegation zone.  Might quiet the fans for a little while.


The Losers

Well, basically the flip side of the matches discussed above.  Chelsea were well-beaten and look out of the running for Champions League.  Same for Southampton - they looked awful.  The Saints do have a few chances in the final weeks but not that many.  A home match with Bournemouth and a trip to Swansea look like their best chances.  Points on the road against Everton and Leicester would help but off of recent form that seems like a long shot. The BFS model has them finishing 18th.

I guess we need to put Huddersfield on this list too, though we couldn't have expected anything more than a draw for them at St. James' Park.  The problem for the Terriers is an unkind run-in.  They still have matches with Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  The best bets for points are Watford and Everton at home; this week's trip to Brighton looms very big as well.They will also need to rely on the kindness of strangers, as in, they can't afford to have any upper table teams drop points to Southampton or Stoke.

We won't include Crystal Palace or Swansea on this list.  Benteke's continuing slump cost Crystal Palace a chance at one or even three points against Liverpool but the Eagles have plenty of chances in the run-in, including home matches with Brighton and West Brom.  Swansea was never going to get a result at Old Trafford plus they have some chances to add points down the road as well.

West Brom and Stoke did themselves no favors, losing to Burnley and Arsenal respectively.


Union Offense Short on Oxygen

That was a clunker at altitude in Colorado.  The Union were the better side in the first half but that was a very low bar.  There were really no clear cut scoring chances either way.  In the second half, the Union defense was shredded for the first time this year and the 0-3 final says it all.  Really tough game for Jack Elliott, the first real disaster for him that I can remember.  Dockal just isn't creating much offense, though again he's still really new.  As Bob K notes, weird results all over MLS right (Toronto with two losses already and Seattle with three) now so best not to get too upset about anything just yet.

Meanwhile, on the left coast they held the first installment of newest MLS derby between the LA Galaxy and the new LAFC, brilliantly dubbed El Trafico.  And what a match.  LAFC held a 3-0 lead through 60 minutes before the Galaxy started the comeback.  It was already 3-2 when newly signed Zlatan Ibrahimovic laid this one on LAFC. Then in stoppage time he completed the improbable comeback with this header.  Aside from being pissed that LA gets to sign Ibra, the whole thing was pretty good for MLS.


New Transfer Target?

Courtesy of Philip S, we get this article about Olympic sprinter Usain Bolt training with Dortmund.  Make sure you get to all three embedded videos which, in order, show Bolt wrongfooting the keeper on a PK, nutmegging a defender, and scoring on a header.  If some team were to sign him, they'd likely be accused of inflicting a publicity stunt on the soccer world.  On the other hand, is it a publicity stunt if the guy has talent?


Derbies

Two of the bigger derbies this weekend but frankly our attention is drawn to other matches.  The Merseyside derby kicks off the weekend at 7:30 on Saturday at Goodison Park.  Saturday's feature match at 12:30 is the Manchester derby from Old Trafford.  Both matches are more about pride than position in the table.

We'll be more interested in the Bournemouth-Crystal Palace and Brighton-Huddersfield matches.  And good on NBC for figuring out these are the critical contests of the weekend.  The former is on CNBC and the latter on NBCSN, both at 10 am on Saturday.

Not counting on anything from Newcastle's trip to Leicester but secretly I'm thinking that maybe with their recent form the Magpies can nick a point from this match.  Tottenham travel to Stoke and Arsenal host Southampton, two of the type of matches I was referring to in comments about Huddersfield - the other relegation candidates are hoping all goes according to form.  Spurs, who may need to be wary of a hangover after the big win over Chelsea, are only on NBC Gold at 10 Saturday but you can see the Gunners on NBCSN at 9:15 Sunday.

On this side of the Atlantic, the Union try to move past last weekend's debacle with a home match against San Jose.

Uh oh, it's Master's weekend too.  Try to get out for at least a few minutes.