Big Steps - Forward and Backward

The run-in still has a way to go but a few more EPL teams made major strides towards sealing their fates - good or bad.  In MLS, the Union found the air pretty thin in Colorado.


The Winners

Perez celebrates game-winner vs Huddersfield

The two biggest winners this week look to be Newcastle and Tottenham.  The Magpies dominated play but typically struggled with finishing in a 1-0 win over Huddersfield at SJP.  Nothing cheap about the goal from Perez with a big assist from Kenedy, seen here in this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Major props to Kenedy, who had an otherwise unremarkable day, for the poise to pick out the pass rather than taking the shot himself.

So we all know about the difference between correlation and causation.  Still, I present the following numbers for Newcastle:

                                             Points PG      Goals scored PG      Goals allowed PG
During Dummett's injury:               .94                     1.00                       1.53
Since his return:                          1.42                     1.00                         .92

Yes, things have been much better since Paul Dummett returned to Newcastle's back line.  WhoScored.com has his average game rating at 6.93; on the Newcastle squad, only Kenedy, Lascelles and Lejeune are higher. 

The three points take Newcastle to 35 total and 538 now lists Newcastle with less than a 1% of going down.  The BFS model says 33 points will be enough to stay up this year.  Three more points would be good to provide some cushion should there be some upsets in the final weeks.  The schedule is not promising in that regard but a home match against West Brom might do the trick.

Tottenham took a big three points from Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, giving them an eight point cushion over the Blues for a top four finish.  A poor decision from Lloris put Spurs down 0-1 but a sterling strike from Eriksen froze Caballero and leveled things right at half time.  Two tallies from Dele took care of things for Tottenham in the second half.  There really was little doubt about the better side here.  Now 538 has Spurs with greater than 99% chance of a top four finish.

We'll add West Ham to the list of winners with their 3-0 thumping of Southampton.  On paper this was a much closer match; the 538 prediction was 40%-34% for WHU and I had it as draw.  This was one of those six point matches and the win moved the Hammers five points clear of the relegation zone.  Might quiet the fans for a little while.


The Losers

Well, basically the flip side of the matches discussed above.  Chelsea were well-beaten and look out of the running for Champions League.  Same for Southampton - they looked awful.  The Saints do have a few chances in the final weeks but not that many.  A home match with Bournemouth and a trip to Swansea look like their best chances.  Points on the road against Everton and Leicester would help but off of recent form that seems like a long shot. The BFS model has them finishing 18th.

I guess we need to put Huddersfield on this list too, though we couldn't have expected anything more than a draw for them at St. James' Park.  The problem for the Terriers is an unkind run-in.  They still have matches with Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  The best bets for points are Watford and Everton at home; this week's trip to Brighton looms very big as well.They will also need to rely on the kindness of strangers, as in, they can't afford to have any upper table teams drop points to Southampton or Stoke.

We won't include Crystal Palace or Swansea on this list.  Benteke's continuing slump cost Crystal Palace a chance at one or even three points against Liverpool but the Eagles have plenty of chances in the run-in, including home matches with Brighton and West Brom.  Swansea was never going to get a result at Old Trafford plus they have some chances to add points down the road as well.

West Brom and Stoke did themselves no favors, losing to Burnley and Arsenal respectively.


Union Offense Short on Oxygen

That was a clunker at altitude in Colorado.  The Union were the better side in the first half but that was a very low bar.  There were really no clear cut scoring chances either way.  In the second half, the Union defense was shredded for the first time this year and the 0-3 final says it all.  Really tough game for Jack Elliott, the first real disaster for him that I can remember.  Dockal just isn't creating much offense, though again he's still really new.  As Bob K notes, weird results all over MLS right (Toronto with two losses already and Seattle with three) now so best not to get too upset about anything just yet.

Meanwhile, on the left coast they held the first installment of newest MLS derby between the LA Galaxy and the new LAFC, brilliantly dubbed El Trafico.  And what a match.  LAFC held a 3-0 lead through 60 minutes before the Galaxy started the comeback.  It was already 3-2 when newly signed Zlatan Ibrahimovic laid this one on LAFC. Then in stoppage time he completed the improbable comeback with this header.  Aside from being pissed that LA gets to sign Ibra, the whole thing was pretty good for MLS.


New Transfer Target?

Courtesy of Philip S, we get this article about Olympic sprinter Usain Bolt training with Dortmund.  Make sure you get to all three embedded videos which, in order, show Bolt wrongfooting the keeper on a PK, nutmegging a defender, and scoring on a header.  If some team were to sign him, they'd likely be accused of inflicting a publicity stunt on the soccer world.  On the other hand, is it a publicity stunt if the guy has talent?


Derbies

Two of the bigger derbies this weekend but frankly our attention is drawn to other matches.  The Merseyside derby kicks off the weekend at 7:30 on Saturday at Goodison Park.  Saturday's feature match at 12:30 is the Manchester derby from Old Trafford.  Both matches are more about pride than position in the table.

We'll be more interested in the Bournemouth-Crystal Palace and Brighton-Huddersfield matches.  And good on NBC for figuring out these are the critical contests of the weekend.  The former is on CNBC and the latter on NBCSN, both at 10 am on Saturday.

Not counting on anything from Newcastle's trip to Leicester but secretly I'm thinking that maybe with their recent form the Magpies can nick a point from this match.  Tottenham travel to Stoke and Arsenal host Southampton, two of the type of matches I was referring to in comments about Huddersfield - the other relegation candidates are hoping all goes according to form.  Spurs, who may need to be wary of a hangover after the big win over Chelsea, are only on NBC Gold at 10 Saturday but you can see the Gunners on NBCSN at 9:15 Sunday.

On this side of the Atlantic, the Union try to move past last weekend's debacle with a home match against San Jose.

Uh oh, it's Master's weekend too.  Try to get out for at least a few minutes.