Backing Into Safety

Matt Phillips celebrates scoring for West Brom
 Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters

Good thing there were several paths for Newcastle to finalize their spot in next year's Premier League.  Plan A, to take care of things ourselves by beating West Brom at home, fell through as they lost to the Baggies 0-1.  West Brom really didn't do all that much but Newcastle did even less. Not that the lads weren't trying hard, it was just that everything was off, especially the passing.  If Shelvey was still under consideration for the England WC squad, he probably isn't anymore.  Down on the south coast, Southampton was fashioning a tense 2-1 win over Bournemouth.  Fortunately Chelsea was able to turn back Swansea 1-0, a match played in a classic Wales downpour. That result drags Newcastle over the line.

With Newcastle officially safe from both relegation and Europa Cup, attention now turns to who's going to be on next year's squad.  Martin Dubravka looks like a, excuse the pun, keeper; Newcastle can make the deal permanent for 4 m or so and we can't imagine that won't happen.  Kenedy has played well and Benitez says he wants to keep him.  But it's Chelsea's decision if they want to sell - or loan him again - to Newcastle.  Islam Slimani often made a difference when he played.  But therein lies the rub.  He missed a lot of time due to injury and will now miss the rest of the season due to stupidity.  Letting his emotions get the better of him, he kicked Craig Dawson - in retaliation - and earned himself a three-game suspension.  Two problems with this.  First, he's going to miss the chance to show what he can do and second, Benitez has little tolerance for this behavior.  I don't see him returning.


Life at the Bottom

We mentioned West Brom and Southampton getting wins and Swansea a loss.  Stoke played Liverpool tough and grabbed a totally unexpected point with a 0-0 draw at Anfield.  Brighton also nicked an extra point on the road with a 0-0 draw at Burnley.  On the flip side, Huddersfield couldn't get anything at home against a seemingly rejuvenated Everton and West Ham fans returned to their disgruntled disposition after a 1-4 dismantling by Man City.  Crystal Palace continued their good run-in, dispatching Leicester 5-0; the Eagles had a 2-0 lead before Leicester had a man sent off and things deteriorated from there.

Here's the table:

Place	Team	GP	Pts	Diff	Remaining Games
11	Crystal Palace	36	38	-13	Stoke (A), West Brom
12	Bournemouth	36	38	-18	Swansea, Burnley (A)
13	Watford	36	38	-20	Newcastle, Man United (A)
14	Brighton	35	37	-15	Man U, Man City (A), Liverpool (A)
15	West Ham	35	35	-24	Leicester (A), Man United, Everton
16	Huddersfield	35	35	-29	Man City (A), Chelsea (A), Arsenal
17	Swansea	35	33	-25	Bournemouth (A), Southampton, Stoke
18	Southampton	35	32	-19	Everton (A), Swansea (A), Man City
19	Stoke	36	30	-33	Crystal Palace, Swansea City (A)
20	West Brom	36	28	-24	Tottenham, Crystal Palace

The BFS model, using 538 predictions, still has West Brom, Stoke and Southampton as the demotees.  But it doesn't take much to bring Swansea, Huddersfield or West Ham into the picture. There's a scenario in which West Ham, Huddersfield, Swansea and Southampton all finish with 35 points and relegation would come down to goal differential; Huddersfield, already at -29, would likely be the odd side out given that they finish with Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  Swansea, with home matches against Southampton and Stoke, seemingly control their own fate. Pretty wild that so many teams are still at risk.


Life at the Top

Man United pulled off the double of clinching a top four finish while pinning a loss on Arsenal in Arsene Wenger's final trip to Old Trafford.  A pretty spirited match seemed headed for a 1-1 draw before Fellaini headed in the game winner in the 91st minute.  Coupled with Tottenham's win on Monday, the loss means no top four finish for the Gunners again.  Speaking of Spurs, they were certainly uninspiring and at times looked vulnerable but managed a 2-0 win at home against Watford.  Good thing for them because Chelsea had closed to within two points.  Tottenham's prospects for a top four finish are enhanced by this Sunday's fixture between Chelsea and Liverpool - somebody's going to be dropping points.  And Liverpool, as we mentioned, already dropped points with their draw against Stoke.


We Are Entertained

Both the Champions League semi-final second legs provided thrills and spills.  On Tuesday, Real Madrid barely hung on for a 4-3 aggregate win over Bayern.  Recall that Real Madrid came home with a 2-1 lead, a nice cushion with the two away goals.  Bayern got one quickly but knew they needed at least one more.  Two first half tallies by Benzema seemingly put the match out of reach but James scored at 63 minutes to set up a thrilling finish.  And Bayern had chances to get that third score, which would have advanced them to the final on the away goal advantage.  Alas, it was not to happen and Real Madrid head to their third straight CL final.

Liverpool carried a 5-2 lead to Italy for the second leg against Roma.  And what a strange one this was.  Liverpool jumped early but Roma got one back quickly on a weird own goal in which Lovren nearly decapitated his teammate Milner with a clearance that ricocheted back into the net.  It's bizarre enough that we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Still, things seemed to be okay for Liverpool after Wijnaldum's tally at 25 minutes.  With the score at 2-2 (or 7-4 on aggregate), Roma got two late goals from Nainggolan to bring the final tally to 7-6 - the highest scoring CL series ever.  Liverpool wasn't really at risk of coughing up the match but it was still a good watch.

We would guess that RM will be the favorite in the final.


And More Entertainment

Think Dockal was happy after scoring game winner against
 DC United? Photo: Greg Caroccio/Philadelphia Union

Sitting with beers in a warm April sunshine at Talen Energy Stadium watching a lively contest between the Union and DC United, Jeff H and I were were almost willing to accept whatever result the Union could manage.  Fortunately, we got all the good stuff plus a 3-2 win for the homeside, the game winner coming from Borek Dockal from close range in the 72nd minute.

And this really is a better Union side than we've seen in many years (ever?).  The changes made in midfield are paying off with possession football that is 1) pleasing to the eye and 2) so much more effective than the dump and chase the Union have relied on for so many years.   It is leading to more scoring opportunities and you feel like eventually they are going to get converted into goals - like they did on Saturday.  Unfortunately, we still have a side that is so easily exposed on counterattack.  At one point midway through the second half, the score was 2-2 and the Union had like 15 shots and DC United two.  A function of youth in the back line?  Maybe but it seems like the whole team needs work on transition.

A smattering of boos for manager Jim Curtin at the start of the match. The frustration is understandable but is there really that much different he can be doing with the squad?  I will note that he started Ilsinho over Picault and got a goal out of it.  But if this is the range of options at his disposal, how much can you pin on Curtin right now?

Pot Meet Kettle

BFS Political Correspondent Philip Scott points out a developing story involving Donald Trump and the US bid to host the 2026 World Cup.  Details are here.  Perhaps concerned that he has damaged the US chances with a travel ban focused on Muslim-majority nations and the reference to many of the likely competing countries as "shit-hole nations," Trump tweeted a plea for support and questioned why the US should support nations that don't back our bid.  FIFA pointed out several of the organization's rules that prohibit this kind of lobbying.  Of course we know what kind of lobbying they do permit, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more.  Anyway, Trump being schooled by FIFA on ethics, well, you have to laugh I guess.


Relegation Watch

The weekend starts early with a Friday match featuring Man United at Brighton (3 pm on NBCSN).  Our recommended match of the week is Chelsea hosting Liverpool at 11 am on Sunday (NBCSN).  A loss or draw for Chelsea pretty much ends their CL hopes; even a win leaves them depending on the kindness of strangers because their goal differential is quite a bit worse than either Liverpool or Tottenham.

Saturday TV features three relegation specials, starting with Stoke-Crystal Palace at 7:30 (NBCSN), Bournemouth-Swansea at 10 (NBCSN) and Everton-Southampton at 12:30 (NBC).  Things could be much clearer or much more unsettled based on results in those matches.  On Sunday Man City continue their charge for 100 points as they host Huddersfield (8:30 on NBCSN). If for some reason you're not interested in Chelsea-Liverpool at 11, you can flip over to CNBC to catch Arsenal-Burnley as they fight over sixth place in the table.

We'll likely take in Newcastle at Watford on NBC Gold on Saturday at 10 am with the "hide scores" function engaged so we can go back and see the more relevant stuff.  Leicester-West Ham is also on NBC Gold.

Midweek matches include the dream relegation match-up of Swansea-Southampton on Tuesday at 2:45.  Wednesday includes four more matches, including Tottenham-Newcastle at 3 pm.  The EPL website doesn't have TV listings as of publication.

By the time you read this, you'll probably know the result of the Europa League semi-final between Atletico and Arsenal, also known as Arsenal's last chance for Champions League football next season.  At 1-1 heading to Madrid, we think the Gunners are facing long odds to make it to the final.

The Union have another Friday night match, this time in Toronto at 8 pm.  Toronto sit in last in the East but we fear that this is a sleeping giant; also, the Union are 0-2-0 on the road.  Thinking we'll be lucky to get a point out of this one.