You Cannot Win If You Do Not Win

Kind of a bust to the end of the season, excitement wise.  Recall that the only two things up for grabs were the final Champions League spot and 17th place in the table (i.e. the last spot safe from relegation).  Chelsea needed to win and get help from others to claim the former while Swansea needed to win and get help from others to avoid relegation.  Well, neither made it through step one, winning their own matches.  What's the old joke, God tells the praying person to help him out by at least buying the lottery ticket first?

Conte - I hate my job

Chelsea were thoroughly dismantled at St. James' Park by a Newcastle squad that looked like they had everything to play for.  Pre-match Conte looked like he needed his morning coffee; during the match he just looked like a sad puppy dog (see picture left).  Is an FA Cup win over Man United enough to save his job?  I didn't see the Swansea-Stoke match but metrics at 538 suggest it should have been a win for the Swans so maybe they were really unlikely.  Still, I am left with the thought that if you can't beat Stoke in your home park maybe the Championship Division is where you belong at the moment.

So it's West Brom, Stoke and Swansea down, Man City (which did hit 100 points), Man United, Tottenham and Liverpool for Champions League, and Chelsea, Arsenal and Burnley for the NIT Europa League.


Happy Days Tyneside

What an exclamation point to end the season for the Magpies.  Thoroughly in command from the start, the 3-0 scoreline seems about right.  The win sealed up 10th place, a finish that would have seemed improbable back in August and impossible back in December.  And IMHO opinion, you can see Rafa Benitez's fingerprints all over this result.  Let's go back to 2016, when he takes a big gamble, making Jamaal Lascelles (who had yet to turn 23) captain of the squad.  Look at his choices for player acquisitions, while keeping in mind the budget he was given - Dubravka, LeJeune, Diame, Kenedy, Merino, Yedlin.  Some of the seeming bust choices aren't as bad as they might seem either - Atsu, Joselu, Murphy.  Clearly more hits than misses.  And players like Shelvey, Dummit and Diame clearly got better under his tutelage.  In my book, Benitez should be second behind Burnley's Sean Dyche but ahead of Pep Guardiola in the Manager of the Year balloting.

As heady as the last few months have been, the future still hangs in the balance.  That Ashley would sell the club right now - or more accurately, that someone would meet his asking price - seems highly unlikely.  So it comes down to whether Ashley makes a commitment to Benitez and a transfer budget and whether Benitez believes anything Ashley says.  If Rafa stays, it means he believes the budget will be close enough to match his ambitions for Newcastle.  In that scenario, a top seven finish is clearly not a pipe dream.  If Rafa goes, all bets are off.  I doubt we find another manager that could do so much with so little.  In that scenario, Newcastle is likely to struggle to avoid relegation every year, and once they do go down, return might not be immediate.


Richest Payoff

The final is set for the Championship Division playoff final to determine which club from that league will be the third to be promoted to the EPL.  Wolverhampton and Cardiff City are already in by virture of their 1-2 finish in regular season play.  Fulham took care of Derby County in one semi, while Aston Villa edged Middlesbrough in the other.  So two sides that were in the EPL not so long ago will battle in what is generally considered the most lucrative contest in sports.  Estimates vary but many believe the marginal impact of promotion to be over $200 million.  No word from BFS co-founder Dennis as to whether he will dig out his Aston Villa paraphernalia should the Villans return.  Also, it appears that the EPL is a zero sum game with respect to Wales - Cardiff is in but Swansea out.


Europa

Will Griezmann be in Atleti colors next year?

Not a thriller but a decent win for Atletico Madrid over Marseille in the Europa League final.  To my eye, Marseille had the run of play but Antoine Greizmann will make you pay for the slightest mistake.  His finishing was simply clinical as he scored two to power the Mattressmakers to the title. Post match the Frenchman was cagey about reports that he might be headed to Barcelona, and not for summer vacation.

We kid about how Europa League has second class status compared to the Champions League but the achievement shouldn't be diminished.  You have to beat a lot of good sides to win the thing.


We Love VAR

This is at least the second time that VAR has come to the Union's rescue.  Clinging to a 0-1 lead and down a man after Cory Burke's ill-advised challenge, Impact defender Daniel Lovitz hauled down Fafa Picault chasing down a ball with only the keeper left.  Referee initially only showed yellow but upon further review, changed it to red.  Threat over, the Union went on to add another and get their first road win.  I never saw a replay that gave me a clear idea of how close Picault was to the ball in comparison to the keeper so I'll stay mum on whether it was a correct call.

And that was only one talking point for the 2-0 win.  First, Curtin made five changes to the starting 11.  Some were driven in part by injury (Burke for Sapong and Gaddis for Fabinho).  But others seemed to come down to recent form (McKenzie for Elliott, Picault for Accam, and Epps for Ilsinho).  Each had varying degrees of success.  Picault's speed is always an issue but he didn't seem to add much else.  McKenzie and Epps weren't great but made no mistakes.  Burke created serious havoc, both good and bad.  On offense, he provided new energy and his goal was high quality. But, he was also prone to losing the ball, leading to dangerous opportunities for Montreal and his silly challenge could have been costly had not Montreal also lost a man.  Gaddis was an unqualified success, possibly his best game ever.  His defense has always been steady but the knock has been that he doesn't provide much offense.  Not this time; he was forward a bunch and registered a shot and an assist without shirking his defensive responsibilities.

As we noted last week, Montreal is not the most formidable side the Union will face this year.  But, it is a road win coming at the end of three games in nine days.  Good on Curtin for shaking things up.


Taking A Few Weeks Off

For a variety of reasons, we're going to "rest" for the next couple of weeks.  I'll be out in Eugene doing live reporting for my other gig at the Prefontaine Classic.  The football schedule is on the quiet side for a little while.  And we'll be doing plenty of writing as the World Cup kicks in.

Don't forget FA Cup Final featuring match up between Man United and Chelsea this Saturday at 12:15 on Fox.  Story line for me is what happens to Conte afterwards; does a win or loss change anything?

The following Saturday there's a sweet doubleheader with the Championship Division playoff between Aston Villa and Fulham at noon and the Champions League final at 2:45.  Both are on a Fox network station I believe.

The Union will be quite active with matches vs Real Salt Lake (5/19), NJ Red Cows (5/26), Chicago (5/30), Atlanta (6/2) and Toronto (6/8).

Okay, so I overstated how quiet things will be.  But in comparison to the last few weeks, it is kind of slow.