Finding A $20 Bill

Shelvey gives Newcastle the lead (Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

You know that feeling when you pull out a pair of jeans you haven't worn in awhile and find a $20 in the pocket?  That's what Newcastle's 2-1 win at Leicester felt like.  I secretly harbored hope that we would nick a point in this match but I wasn't really counting on a result.  The Magpies certainly came out brightly enough and when Shelvey scored at 18 minutes off a pass from Perez I immediately started thinking about a point.  Perez added to the lead with an improbable goal at 75 minutes and three points seemed assured.  Ah, you know that's not the Newcastle way.  Vardy scored at 83 minutes and the rest of the way was a bit shaky. But, the defense did hold and the $20 three points were ours. 

Although mathematically safety is not assured at the point, Newcastle sit 10th in the table and are 10 points clear of relegation.  There will need to be some serious upsets, and lots of them, for the Magpies not to stay up at this point.


The Bloom Is Not Off the Rose

Well that was a crappy seven days for Man City.  First there was last Wednesday's Champions League blowout loss at Liverpool.  Then they blew a 2-0 lead at home to Man United and failed to clinch the EPL on Saturday.  The trifecta was completed with a 1-2 loss at home to Liverpool which ended their Champions League hopes.  No quad, no triple, just a lousy double (EPL and League Cup). I would argue that this shouldn't cheapen the quality of Man City's season given the ease with which they won the league.  This is still a remarkable season.


Lessening the Drama

A mere few weeks ago we were looking at a tight battle for the Champions League berths and a congested race to avoid relegation.  Now, things are looking more settled.  Losers to Tottenham last weekend, Chelsea dropped more points as they could only manage a 1-1 draw with West Ham.  The top four really don't look in doubt anymore.  Stoke and Southampton lost to Tottenham and Arsenal respectively while others above were all getting a point.  Crystal Palace again passed up a chance to make a bold move towards safety as they ceded a late goal at Bournemouth in a 2-2 draw; still the point was helpful.  Either Brighton or Huddersfield could have made similar strides but the 1-1 draw did give them each a point.  And Swansea took a point with a late goal to rescue at draw at West Brom.  The BFS model is showing that Brighton and Huddersfield are the sides most likely to save West Brom, Stoke or Southampton from relegation, but those three remain clear favorites to go down. 



This Week in Refereeing Controversy

Turns out Antonio Mateu Lahoz is Spanish for Michael Dean

Down 1-3 against Liverpool, Man City had appeared to score late in the first half of the second leg only to see it ruled out for offside.  Except it wasn't.  Here is the play.  Some commentators were suggesting it came down to an interpretation of whether Milner made a deliberate play on the ball.  But turns out that's not relevant at all.  The ball went from deBruyne's chip into the box to keeper Karius' punch out of the ball which then came off Milner (deliberate or not deliberate) to Sane.  The only questions here are whether Sane was offside when deBruyne played the ball and whether there was an intervening touch by a Man City player before the ball got to Sane.   Pretty clearly the answers are no and no.   At 2-3 does the second half play out differently?  Who knows.  Here at BFS our philosophy is that the ref doesn't cost you the game.  That said, we can't help but note that Antonio Mateu Lopez looks to be one of those refs who somehow always inserts himself into the match.


The Whole Was Less Than the Sum of the Parts

While we can't find too much fault with individual performances, the fact is the Union could only manage a 1-1 draw at home against a mediocre San Jose side.  They were totally in command of the midfield thanks to Dockal (easily his best game so far), Med and Bedoya.  Fafa Picault certainly provided a dynamic attacking presence down both wings.  And on the whole, the defense was reasonably well-organized.  The problem was that the crosses never got to their destination or the shots never got made. Also, the Union looked susceptible to the counterattack, allowing one goal on the counter and dodging the bullet in a few other cases.  Still very early in the season but we should know by now that home draws just don't get you to the playoffs.


Champions League Chaos

You already know that Man City was ousted.  Barcelona, seemingly in command with a 4-1 lead, lost the second leg 0-3 against Roma and were eliminated on the away goal tie breaker.  Real Madrid was seconds away from extra time after blowing a 3-0 lead to Juventus; a late foul (justified IMHO) in the box gave Ronaldo the chance to win it with a PK and he did.  In the last quarterfinal, Bayern took care of a stubborn Sevilla.  By the time you read this, the draw for the semis should be out.


Don't Say There's Nothing On

Somehow, NBC has managed to get eight of this weekend's 10 matches on TV.  Only Burnley-Leicester and Huddersfield-Watford are relegated to NBC Gold.  For my money, the match of the weekend is Crystal Palace - Brighton; like many of these matches between relegation candidates, a win for either would be massive but even a draw moves them away from danger.  I have Palace winning this won. It's on NBCSN at 10 Saturday morning.  Next I'll be focused on West Ham-Stoke on Monday at 2:45 (NBCSN); if Stoke plan to escape even a draw here won't be enough while the Hammers could put their relegation threat to bed with a win.

Tottenham-Man City is certainly a top-tier matchup but may not mean that much in terms of overall placing (Saturday 2:45 NBCSN).  The other top sides have what look like winnable fixtures; Man United is home to West Brom (Sunday at 11 on NBCSN), Liverpool host Bournemouth (Saturday 12:30 on NBC) and Chelsea travel to Southampton (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN).

Newcastle will take on Arsenal Sunday morning at 8:30 (NBCSN).  I never count on any points when the Magpies take on the Gunners.  Usually I count on a thrashing too.  Maybe things have changed but I doubt it.  Swansea-Everton (Saturday at 10 on CNBC) rounds out the schedule.

The Union host Orlando on Friday night.  Presumably this is a side the Union will be fighting with for a playoff spot.  A draw (or loss) here would be an early sign that we're not a playoff team.