The Dropped Points Are Adding Up

Hmm, Newcastle's Champions League performances have been better than their EPL results.

Shoulda Watched Crystal Palace - Bournemouth

For nearly forty minutes, the Brighton - Newcastle contest offered little in the way of interest.  Competitive does not equal compelling.  Dennis was bored enough that he texted me at about 35 minutes to say he didn't have the attention span for this and headed off to run errands.  So of course, Danny Welbeck scored shortly thereafter and I texted Dennis that the goal was on him.

The ageless Danny Welback sank Newcastle with a brace
Photo:Gareth Fuller

The second half was a better watch, with the Magpies finally on the front foot.  They were rewarded with this "cheeky" goal from Voldemort.  Ironically, earlier in the match, I had texted that he'll never beat with your feet and he then pulls off that goal.  Okay, with the momentum, the draw looked good and a game winner was not out of the question.  Not so fast Sparky.  Welbeck struck with his second of the match at 84 minutes, completely against the run of play.  Dan Burn had made a solid tackle but the ball went right to Welbeck, who did not miss.

Small No consolation that xG was 1.35 - .91 favor the Magpies and/or that the other stats suggest a draw would have been a fair result.  Newcastle now sit in 14th, just four points above the relegation zone.  Not really fearing that fate but we are now at least three points short of a low expectation prediction through eight matches.  

Speaking of Crystal Palace - Bournemouth

I was only half joking about how I would have been happier watching this one.  I did note last week this looked really good on paper and it turned out even better in real life.  If you have the time, check out the full match highlights here. This had everything, lots of attacking, plenty of goals, tough refereeing decisions, and - most dramatically - last minute fireworks.  Maybe the best match of the season so far.  Would have been a great day to be at Selhurst Park.

A Greek Tragedy (hat tip Charlie O)

Nottingham Forest gave a good account of themselves in a scoreless first half against Chelsea.  Too bad for them that they had to play the second half, during which they conceded three. Rebecca Lowe had barely begun the post game highlights when word came down that Ange Postecoglou had been sacked.

Postecoglou: Remind me again why I took this job
Photo:Mike Egerton/PA

This is a sad story, a Greek tragedy if you will, that has its roots, IMHO, in the personality of their
owner, Evangelos Marinakis.  Recall, late last season as then manager Nuno Espirito Santo was leading the team to a top 10 finish and a spot in the Conference League, Marinakis stormed onto the field and berated Santo in front of his players after a 2-2 draw with Leicester. This summer, after signing Nuno to a new three-year deal in June, Marinakis brought in Edu to oversee football operations.  Santo and Edu did not get along and Santo said publically that the new hire had damaged his already fragile relationship with Marinakis.  We can argue whether Nuno should have aired that dirty laundry (probably not) but it created the situation wherein a bad start to Forest's season gave Marinakis the opening to sack Santo three matches in.  So in comes Postecoglou, who proceeds to go winless over eight matches across three competitions, notching two draws and six losses.  Okay, not a great start.  Still, eight matches was enough for Marinakis to know that Postecoglou's not his man?

I have rooted for Nottingham Forest in the past but now won't mind seeing them free fall back into the Championship Division.

The Rodney Dangerfield of Managers

Readers may detect a pro-Nuno bias in my reporting of the above story and you would be correct.  This guy has gotten so little credit for the work he's done at Wolves, Spurs and Nottingham Forest.  Check out the table below on how teams fared with Nuno and after his departure:

You hear crap like we need someone other than Santo to take us to the next level.  Exactly what is this next level they reference?  Certainly doesn't look like a higher level.

But Wait...

There may be a happier ending to the Nottingham Forest tale. BFS all-time favorite Sean Dyche has been hired as the new manager.  We look forward to awesome press conferences like this going forward.

"Conversation" That Definitely Took Place

Dennis (at 36 minutes of Spurs - Aston Villa): Morgan Rogers has been actively bad this season.  He's really got to figure his shit out.

Dennis (at 37 minutes, after Morgan's goal): I made that happen.

This is what Dennis "made happen."  This was a great match for Villa fans and for neutrals; for Spurs fans, not so much.

Quick Tour of Results Elsewhere

- Liverpool lost its third straight league match, falling to Man United 1-2 on an 84th minute goal from Harry Maguire

- Arsenal (1-0 over Fulham) and Man City (2-0 over Everton) are 1-2 in the table

- Leeds, West Ham and Wolves all lost, suggesting they are definitely relegation candidates

Keeper Assist

As referenced at the top, Newcaste are having better luck in the Champions League.  Though it took a while to register on the scoreboard, the Magpies were clearly the dominant side here, putting up a 3-0 win over Benfica.  The goal that pretty much sealed things was a simple breakaway triggered by a Nick Pope pass that ended with a fine finish by Harvey Barnes; you can see the keeper assisted goal pretty much from Nick Pope's perspective in this week's YouTubeableMoment.

A solid match week for the EPL as the six sides outscored their opponents 19-2.  All but Spurs (0-0 draw with Monaco) came away with three points.

The Come From Behind Eagles

Nottingham Forest had "help" in 2-0 win over Porto

Belying their name, the Go Ahead Eagles fell behind very quickly to Aston Villa in their Europa Cup match.  But the Villans fell victim to the old bugaboo of not putting up a second goal.  They proceeded to give up the equalizer on a defensive miscue aided by a deflection, then conceded the game winner in the 61st minute; both were against the run of play.  Particularly galling about this loss was that Emi Buendia soared a 79th minute PK over the cross bar.  With the expanded group stage schedule, this 1-2 loss is probably not a killer, just really annoying.

Sean Dyche had a better time of things in his debut with Nottingham Forest, notching a 2-0 win over Porto.  Does look like he had some divine intervention, as I see Jesus got one of the goals.

Messing with Wordle Is One Thing

The global outage that disrupted internet functions shut down the semi-automated offside  technology for much of the West Ham - Brentford.  Like it wasn't bad enough that all our NY Times games were messed up.

Fall Back But No Yellow Balls Yet

DST ends in England but you'll have to wait 2 weeks
for the appearance of yellow balls

This being the last Sunday in October, England ends daylight savings time this weekend and the Sunday kickoff times reflect that.  I was mistaken though in that I thought the change meant the premier of the yellow balls.   As detailed here, we won't see them until 11/8.

If I am to believe Opta, which I swore a few weeks ago that I would, the best match of the weekend is Man United hosting Brighton; well, it is the Saturday 12:30 feature match. The Red Devils, even at Old Trafford, are only marginal favorites here.  

I want to believe Opta as they have Newcastle at 61% for the win and 21% for a draw hosting Fulham at 10 am Saturday on USA.  These are two sides that have somewhat disappointed so far this year.  Your other option at 10 am is Chelsea - Sunderland (that's 7th place Sunderland to you) on Peacock.  There is no 7:30 match (oh darn) but there is a special 3 pm fixture between Brentford and Liverpool on USA.  

Sunday is a bit crowded thanks to Thursday matches in Europa Cup and Conference League.  There are four choices at 10 (clocks back in England, remember).  Easy pick for us is Aston Villa hosting Man City on USA; this is an in-form City side right now but until their stumble against the Go Ahead Eagles, so were Aston Villa.  Other options (all on Peacock) are a London derby featuring Arsenal - Crystal Palace, Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forestat and a relegation special between Wolves and Burnley.  The 12:30 match on NBC is Everton - Spurs; Opta is really testing me this week as I try to figure out how Everton are at 41% and Spurs just 32% (27% chance of draw).  Just reporting the numbers folks.

Almost forgot, you can get an early start to the weekend with a relegation-relevant contest between Leeds and West Ham Friday at 3 pm on USA.

This week's midweek stuff is Carabao Cup round of 16 on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here are the fixtures:

Most intriguing match is defending champion Newcastle (I love saying that) versus Spurs.  Arsenal -Brighton looks like a tough fixture too.  Note the appearance of Wrexham on Tuesday.  The Championship season isn't going great for them but they did get this far in the Carabao Cup.

Sunday the Union start what we hope is a lengthy run in the MLS playoffs with a home match against Chicago at 5:30; we will be at Subaru Park for this one. The format is explained here.  We're not a big fan of soccer playoffs anyway and the first round seems goofy to us.  It's a best of three with the higher seed getting two home matches.  There are no ties; if level at full time, they go straight to PKs.  The argument is that with two home matches, the higher seed has a better chance of advancing than if they did a home and away aggregate setup.  That is probably true but soccer playoffs are such a crapshoot, how much help is it really?  I am mildly comforted that Opta has the Union at 55% for the win, though they do have the chance of a shootout at 23%.

I think you can take next Thursday and Friday off.