A less-than-stellar BFS derby, a not-too-competitive London derby and an unnecessarily close Union result. Sigh.
One Moment of Quality
The BFS derby had been largely devoid of anything resembling good football and the uneventful first half was set to quietly expire at 0-0. The problem is that Matty Cash has such a long throw-in that any ball into touch in the final, say, 20-25 yards is basically the equivalent of a corner for Aston Villa. In the first half's final play, Cash lofted a throw into the box that Tyrone Mings flicked further into the box to the waiting foot of Danny Ings. Well, "waiting foot" kind of understates what Ings did. Check out his spectacular bicycle kick which we must reluctantly make this week's YouTubeableMoment. Could be the goal of the year. We also note the alliterative scoring combination here of Mings to Ings. The second goal came on PK after VAR suggested Lascelles had handled the ball in the box. The new guidance for handling is more subjective than in the past:
"A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player's body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised.""
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| Close, but even thicker lines couldn't save the Magpies |
unlucky for Aston Villa not to get a goal out of that opportunity. Newcastle didn't fold up shop and even looked to be poised to cut the deficit in half with plenty of time to go when Callum Wilson was fouled in the box by keeper Martinez. Except VAR correctly identified that Wilson was offside in the buildup so no PK.
Since we had no expectations of a result here, we were mildly encouraged by some of the things we saw. The defense was basically solid; the two goals were an incredible bicycle kick and sort of unlucky PK. The Magpies did generate a few decent chances as well and actually had more possession. The problem is that of the nine shots, only one was on target, a very weak header just as the final whistle was blowing. Realistically, we might have been tapped for two points after the first two matches so this is not a disaster of a start. On the other hand, two points here and there is the difference between an excruciating season spent near the drop zone and a comfortable run through the lower mid table.
Side note: Did you see that Bruce started the exact line up I recommended in last week's blog? I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.
Second side note: Dennis was generally pleased with the result. He felt a 2-1 final would have been a better reflection of the match.
Not Your Father's Arsenal-Chelsea
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| Romelu; It's good to be back |
Mikel Arteta rockets to the top of the Sack Race, well ahead of Hasenhuttl, Munoz, Vieira, Bruce and Dyche.
Spoke Too Soon?
Because we were watching the BFS Derby, we couldn't take in what might have been the best match of the week, the 2-2 draw between Leeds - Everton. Slightly embarrassed after singing the praises of Benitez in last week's post. Twice the Toffees were up and twice Leeds came back. I take a little comfort that 538 did have Leeds as slight favorite here. Also, there is this glass is 7/8ths full analysis that notes the defense is shorthanded and that Benitez has only been there six weeks.
Blowouts Realized and Unrealized
We labeled three matches as potential blowouts. We'd have to say that prediction had mixed results, at best. Man City did make short work of Norwich with a 5-0 win; at 538 they have Norwich with .05 expected goals. Liverpool were clearly the better side in a 2-0 win and weren't all that pressed by Burnley. Except, the game was still just 1-0 until late. A second goal in the 69th minute allowed the Anfield faithful to take a deep breath. Harvey Elliott played all 90 minutes and had a 6.9 rating.
Man United didn't even get the W. I did not see the match but the stats suggest they might have been a bit unlucky.
West Ham - Leicester was not scheduled to be a blowout but a red card for Ayoze Perez meant the Hammers got to play 50 minutes with a man advantage. The 4-1 final tells us they used it wisely.
Atwell Must Not Have Gotten the Memo
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| Cool jerseys guys |
penalties. The "memo" is here. Proceed to the Wolves - Spurs match on Sunday. In the 8th minute, Alli runs onto a through ball from Regulon and ends up with "contacting" keeper Sa. You can see the play here. First of all, the contact is Alli dragging his leg over Sa. Second, note the different directions of the ball and Alli. Third, didn't we just read a memo about how "It's not sufficient to just say there was contact." Also too, anytime the announcer says "the attacker was very clever there" in reference to a PK, your antenna should go up. Apparently between the time this happened and a shoulder-to-shoulder challenge minutes later in the Spurs box, Atwell did get the memo, correctly letting the play go.
Wolves did not make Nuno's homecoming comfortable, but they just didn't have quality finishing to get even a draw, as Alli's PK was the only goal of the match. Spurs have matching 1-0 wins and have yet to concede a goal. Nuno must be doing something right. Also, maybe Spurs deserve the win for the new away kit alone.
The week got even better for Spurs with news that Harry Kane would be staying in London in this year.
Elsewhere
The 0-0 draw between Crystal Palace and Brentford does sound like two sides that may be in for a long season. Yeah, I know Brentford have four points and Newcastle none so I probably shouldn't be poking fun. The Brighton Watford contest wasn't as bad as we expected but we still fault the schedulers for going with that one over Leeds Everton.
Now I Really Don't Carabao It Cup
Newcastle had the run of play over Burnley but again could not score. In the League Cup, they right to kicks from the spot. Marksmen Almiron and St. Maximin both missed and the Magpies went down 3-4. Newcastle join Crystal Palace has the only EPL teams already gone; the Eagles also lost to an top division side - Brentford.
I do care about Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League (in that order) but don't have time to go through all of that right now. Basically each has completed their earlier qualification rounds and are proceeding to group stage play.
For 86 minutes on Saturday, it looked like the best part of the trip to Subaru Park was going to be the sausage sandwich and Sterling Pig pilsner. Despite having the lion's share of possession, the Union were down 0-1 late thanks to a well-timed Montreal counterattack in first half stoppage time (second time today for that crap). Despite getting the ball into dangerous positions, they weren't getting shots on target; some were blocked but sometimes an appetizing cross was left, well, uneaten. For at least the second time this season, Jim Curtin determined that 0-2 was only marginally worse than 0-1 so he subbed out defender Olivier Mbaizo for midfielder Quinn O'Sullivan. And it worked again. Jack Elliott, who's ball skills and passing bely his status as a center defender, found O'Sullivan at the top of the box (you never score from there) and the youngster buried the shot. We make it this week's Runnerup YoutubeableMoment.
The advanced stats say the 1-1 draw was fair result here and that's probably right. Not a great result as the Union were strong favorites for this one and the three points would have put some distance between the Union and the playoff hopefuls. It's true that Montreal not getting all three points was helpful in that they didn't gain any ground. On the other hand, the result demonstrates that this year the Union's focus will be on making the playoffs and getting as good a seed as possible, not winning the Supporters Shield.
Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did
Steve: What do you call an attempted Union through ball?
Jeff K: A goal kick for the opposition
Does This Say Union or What?
Somethings are difficult for a franchise that has only been around for 12 years. Like the Ring of Honor has one name - Sebastien LeToux. More like a Dot of Honor. Last Saturday the Union had Alumni Night. Ray Gaddis was there. Fred was there. Ryan Richter was there. Wait, Ryan Richter? Jeff K and I were stumped. Turns out Richter was with the Union in 2011 but he never appeared in an MLS game. Richter did go on to play for Toronto FC and also played for several USL clubs. So, we're not questioning his soccer chops, we just thought the Union alumni tag was a bit thin. Like maybe get people that actually appeared in a game.
Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did
Steve (late in first half with Union and Montreal level at 0-0): At 45 minutes I said to Jeff K, I just hope they don't do what Newcastle did. A minute later...
Dennis: So you take full responsibility for the goal. Got it.
The Coming Weeks - CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers Alert
Not sure I'll be able to post next week so we'll take a look out for the next few weeks.
All the EPL matches are crammed into Saturday and Sunday. Some good stuff but we are squarely focused on Newcastle - Southampton. Silly to think that a Week 3 match is critical except this is the type of fixture from which the Magpies need at least a point. On Peacock Saturday at 10 with me on the road so not sure if I'll get to see it live.
As to the good stuff, Man City host Arsenal at 7:30 on Saturday morning (Peacock). Not a great place for Arteta to go to right the ship; 538 has that at 69% for City, 12% for Arsenal, 19% draw. The feature match at 12:30 on NBC looks like a feature match this week - Liverpool vs Chelsea. The Reds are slight favorite over the Blues, probably because it's at Anfield.
The other undefeated sides have a good chance to stay that way. Spurs host Watford on Sunday at 9 (Peacock) while West Ham have a home match against Crystal Palace Saturday at 10 (Peacock). Oh, sorry Brighton, didn't even notice you there sitting undefeated. Still, facing Everton at home (Saturday at 10 on NBCSN), a win is not out of the question.
Wolves have (out) played Leicester and Tottenham so far and all they have to show for it is a pair of 0-1 losses. Doesn't get any easier either as they host Man United on Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN. Every reason to think this will be a good watch for the neutral. Aston Villa continue their relatively easy opening with a home match against Brentford (Saturday at 10 on CNBC). Rounding out the schedule is Norwich-Leicester (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) and Burnley-Leeds (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).
In a perfect world, we'd watch Man City-Arsenal, Newcastle-Southampton, Liverpool-Chelsea on Saturday, then Tottenham-Watford and Wolves-Man United on Sunday. Neutrals might want to sub out Newcastle for Brighton-Everton.
Saturday night is another six-pointer for the Union as they travel south to face DC United (8 pm on PHL-17). We may have to be satisfied with a draw here.
The Hexagon Is Now An Octagon
The last step of CONCACAF used to be a six-team round robin affair. Now there are eight. You play each country - home and away - and the top three go to Qatar, while fourth place has a play-in opportunity. Details can be had here. Because BFS might not post next week, we draw your attention to the fact that the USMNT will have three matches during the upcoming international break. They face El Salvador away next Thursday (9/2), Canada at home on Sunday (9/5) and head back south to face Honduras on Wednesday (9/8). That seems like a brutal schedule - three matches in seven days with significant travel. Depth might be important. Not sure about TV coverage but Paramount+ will definitely have the games. A quick search yielded disappointingly little in the way of predictions but I did find this.
Forecast calls for soccer, lots of it.
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