You Can't Win Them All

Whoa, got spoiled there.  Newcastle played well enough at Goodison Park but came up short in the 0-1 loss to Everton.  Not necessarily a pretty match but kudos to both sides for playing with serious intensity.  Nobody in flip-flops yet for that one.  I guess both have some things to play for and it's possible that Everton was serious about not having the Magpies pass them in the table.

Much in the news about next season. Will Rafa sign on for more years?  Can Ashley offer him assurances of decent transfer budget?  Will anyone be interested in meeting Ashley's steadily rising price (400 million) for the club?  The most disturbing part of recent stories is that Ashley is viewing Newcastle's impending mid-table finish as vindication of his strategy.  Well, yeah, if you have Rafa Benitez managing your club.  But he's not going to put up with the penny pinching forever and then where will you be?

I can see a pretty good case for Rafa as Manager of the Year.  But I'd be hard pressed to argue too hard against Sean Dyche at Burnley.  It's not like he got infinite resources either.  It will probably go to Guardiola though.  That's not a terrible choice either but I feel like Dyche or Benitez did more with less.


Form Holds

Not too much in the way of upsets last weekend, except maybe West Brom's 2-2 draw with Liverpool.  Technically, I don't think the Baggies would have been eliminated without the point but the home fans did enjoy the late equalizer from Rondon, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  West Ham put up a stubborn fight against Arsenal but eventually collapsed to a 1-4 defeat.  I know I watched the Watford - Crystal Palace 0-0 draw but can't remember anything about it.  Stoke grabbed at point at home against Burnley with a 1-1 draw but remain a leading relegation candidate.  Man City pummeled Swansea 5-0, leaving the Swans as the side closest to the bottom three, probably at least three or points from safety.


Other Stuff

Two pretty decent semi-finals, at least for the neutral.  Tottenham started well but you have to say that Man United deserved the 2-1 win.  And Southampton put up a good fight but Chelsea were just better and move on with a 2-0 win.

Salah with muted celebration after goal against his former club Roma

Jurgen Klopp must be stewing.  Liverpool had a 5-0 lead on Roma in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final but coughed up two late goals.  They are probably still okay but giving up two road goals keeps the door open, even if just a little, for Roma.  At 5-0, the tie was done.  At 5-2, maybe not so much.  Probably should have mentioned Mohamed Salah in the previous section, since he tied the EPL record with his 31st goal of the season against West Brom.  He added two in the Roma match to bring his Champions League total to 10.  Yeah, he's having a good year.  In the other semi, Real Madrid took a 2-1 lead at Bayern in a match that was feisty; there were several crunching tackles and a general snarl to the proceedings.

In Europa action, Antoine Griezmann's spoiled what should have been a good night for Arsene Wenger with a late goal to get Atletico Madrid a 1-1 draw with Arsenal at the Emirates.  This is a terrible result for the Gunners on several levels.  First, they played most of the match up a man after Vrsaljko (not a typo) got two yellows in the first nine minutes; despite lots of possession and shots, they only managed one goal.  With that man advantage they only got a draw at home.  And just as damaging, they surrendered a road goal, which means Atleti is in the driver's seat heading back to Spain.   


We Watch So You Don't Have To

Well that was a stinker, probably the worst Union performance of the season.  The 0-2 loss in Dallas is extremely flattering to the visitors.  Without the exploits of Andre Blake in goal, this was a 0-4 or 0-5 loss.  Absolutely awful in just about all aspects.  Maybe a bit of a tough call on Trusty for the PK but he gave the ref the chance to blow the whistle.  And I certainly hope the attitude isn't, well, it might have been a different game without that call.

Bob K points out that last year's MLS Cup finalists - Toronto and Seattle - are currently in last place in their respective divisions with fewer points than the Union.  Somehow that is not providing much comfort right now. 


Virtual Chester vs Real Man City

Got a bit ahead on the virtual calendar, where it is now June.  Chester have completed a very satisfying season, arguably a better one than the real life Man City.  We won the EPL with 99 points; Man City has clinched the title and have 90 points with four matches to play.  Likely that they'll exceed our point total.  They also won the League Cup, which my Chester squad failed to do.  But, on successive Saturdays, Chester won the FA Cup and the Champions League, which Man City could not do.  The board is certainly happy and have offered me a new contract with a raise from $1.4m a year to $6.0m a year.  Our transfer budget for next year will be $87 million.  I think our biggest issue is that we still don't have the revenue base to offer competitive salaries in comparison to the big clubs like Man United, Barcelona, etc.  So far we have not had trouble keeping our stars but they are still young; I wonder how it will play out when those contracts expire.


Three Ways to Clinch Safety

If I have this right, everybody but Man City still have something to play for this weekend.  Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham have not clinched their Champions League spots yet.   Chelsea and Arsenal have clinched Europa League spots but still have outside (slim?) chances of snatching a Champions League position.  Burnley can lock up their Europa League spot this week with a win.  Everton and Leicester are safe from relegation but still have outside (slim?) chances of snatching the last Europa League spot.  And everybody from Newcastle on down are not mathematically safe from relegation yet.

Newcastle head into the weekend with three different routes to reach mathematical safety from relegation.  The simplest route is to get a win or draw against West Brom at St. James' Park (10 am Saturday on CNBC).  We have every reason to think this is achievable.  And really, if you can't beat West Brom at home, well, your EPL credentials are a bit suspect anyway.  But this being Newcastle, we need to review the other options.  One is for Southampton to lose or draw their match with Bournemouth (10 am Saturday on NBCSN).  At 538, they have the Saints as a pretty healthy favorite so we'll go to Plan C, which is Swansea getting anything less than a win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (12:30 on Saturday on NBC); that seems a bit more likely.

Other TV games include Liverpool - Stoke (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN), West Ham - Man City (9:15 Sunday on NBCSN), Man United - Arsenal (11:00 Sunday on NBCSN) and Tottenham - Watford (2:45 Monday on NBCSN).  The Man United - Arsenal fixture will mark Arsene Wenger's farewell to Old Trafford and perhaps the last chance for Mourinho to taunt him.

I'll be back to Talen Energy on Saturday to see the Union take on a DC United side that doesn't look much better than us.  This would be a really good time to get three points.

Don't forget the second legs of the Champions League and Europa semi final ties midweek.

All that EPL and European football will wrap up in late May, allowing us maybe a week or two to get ready for the World Cup.  Really hoping that the USMNT can get to the knockout stage.  What? Oh, never mind.

Finding A $100 Bill

Know that feeling when you pull out a pair of jeans you haven't worn in awhile and find a $100 bill in one of the pockets? Yeah, me neither. So I can only speculate as to whether that feeling would match my emotions after Newcastle's solid 2-1 win over Arsenal.  In retrospect, maybe this wasn't out of left field.  Arsenal had played in Moscow on Thursday night, left several stars at home (e.g. Ozil), have struggled some on the road and seem all in for the Europa League to the possible exclusion of the EPL games.  Maybe the Magpies were a bit lucky as well, as the 538 metrics suggest the Gunners should have scored more goals.  Whatever, I don't care how the $100 got there, I'm going to enjoy it.

Matt Ritchie scores game winner vs Arsenal (AFP Photo)

And while it's true that maybe Arsenal didn't make the most of their chances, there was nothing cheap about either of the Newcastle goals, especially the first.  Nine players touched the ball in the build-up, which was capped by a 50-yard pass from Shelvey to Gayle, who controlled the ball then sent it wide to Yedlin, who crossed it to the streaking Perez, who slotted it past Cech.  I'm biased but the announcers seemed to like it too as you can see and hear
here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  And another thing, Newcastle have allowed the 7th fewest goals in the EPL.

With the relegation fairly settled at this point (there is a worst case scenario in which Newcastle are relegated), we can now return to the sale of the club.  Except this may have gotten more difficult.  Recall that Mike Ashley spurned what he viewed as low-ball offers when the club was threatened with relegation in hopes of a better price should they survive.  Smart or not, he has won that bet and the selling price must be higher, maybe as much as 350 million.  Will there be offers? Will he play hard ball? Will Rafa stick around for this nonsense again?  Newcastle are poised to become a top tier side but it won't happen with Ashley at the helm.


Arsene to Be Gone

BFS La Liga European Correspondent Michael B alerted me this morning to the news that Arsene Wenger is stepping down at the end of this season.  As a Magpie fan, trying not to take this too personally but Wenger has been under fire for some time now and he only announces he's leaving after Arsenal lost to Newcastle.  Are they saying we can tolerate a lot of things but losing to Newcastle, that's the last straw.  Here's a research project - which team has been most often the last loss before a manager got fired?  BFS staff will get right on it...


It's Not You, It's Them

Yet another clever promo from NBC, this time about relegation.  Best use of a Chicago song since, well probably ever.  So where do we stand after the weekend and mid-week matches, not all of which went according to form.

Huddersfield and Crystal Palace put some distance between themselves and the bottom three.  Didn't see the Huddersfield match but one of the English papers suggested it was tense but low quality; a late goal got the Terriers a 1-0 win over Watford and we guess the fans could care less how good the match was.  Crystal Palace-Brighton was a good watch, with both sides playing like their EPL lives depended on it; the Eagles early strikes were enough to carry them to a 3-2 win.  But Brighton then grabbed an unexpected point with a draw against Tottenham.  Swansea's 1-1 draw with Everton was predicted but the point was still valuable.  West Ham could have buried Stoke while enhancing their own chances to stay up.  Instead, they were lucky to grab a point with Andy Carroll's goal in stoppage time, a cruel ending for Stoke.

Southampton defenders ponder three points lost

But the cruelest blow of all had to be at Saint Mary's Stadium, where Southampton carried an improbable 2-0 lead into the 70th minute.  The three points would have been massive for the Saints.  But Chelsea goals at 70,75 and 78 minutes (two from Giroud) took the three to none.  One might think they never had visions of any points to begin with so they are no worse off.  I dunno.  That kind of loss has to leave a mark.  The Saints did get a point out of a trip to Leicester - a totally boring 0-0 draw - so the week wasn't a total loss.  But everyone around them got points, even West Brom, who stunned Man United at Old Trafford on Monday.  The three points for the Baggies are probably too little too late for them. No, the result was probably more noteworthy in that it clinched the EPL title for Man City, ironically when most of their players were on the golf course, not the soccer pitch.

Liverpool kept on rolling with a 3-0 win over Bournemouth while Tottenham's push for a top four spot temporarily stalled in a 1-3 loss to Man City and the draw with Brighton.

With our focus on the top four, I forgot to look at developments in qualification for Europa.  EPL gets three spots - League Cup winner, FA Cup winner, and 5th place in the EPL.  Well the League Cup went to Man City, who are already qualified for Champions League.  So that means 6th place in the table will get you a place in Europa League.  And the FA Cup is down to Man United, Tottenham, Chelsea or Southampton.  Excluding Southampton, these sides are already going to make either Champions League or Europa.  So, unless Southampton win the FA Cup, 7th in the EPL table is also going to get you a Europa spot.  Right now 6th and 7th are held by Arsenal at 54 points and Burnley at 52 points.  Leicester are nine back and Everton 10 back.  That puts Burnley's 2-1 win over Leicester last weekend in a different light.  Just for fun we'll note that Newcastle are still mathematically in the hunt as well.

Note that should Arsenal win this year's Europa League, they will compete in the Champions League next year but the EPL will not get another slot for Europa.  My read of the rules also suggests that the Gunners would not bump any of the other EPL sides out of the Champions League.  Clear as mud, right?


Accam's Razor

It's a philosophical construct that proposes that the simplest explanation for the Union's struggles is that the player they obtained in the off-season to boost the offense has yet to score a goal this season.  That would be a bit unfair to David Accam but certainly has a grain of truth.  He had at least three good chances on Friday night in the the 0-2 loss to Orlando but couldn't convert any of them.  Friday the 13th indeed.  The Union started brightly enough, controlling the midfield and creating plenty of chances, which went for naught.  Then the inevitable quick counter from Orlando makes it 0-1 at 38 minutes and things went downhill from there.  Orlando added a second right before half.  Though there were no more goals, it was still a horror show as the Union really didn't generate much in the second half.


Better Viewing Through Technology

Michael B demonstrates proper use of dual monitor technology

Dual monitors were the greatest advance in staying current on football results for us office bound types.  You could stream a match on one while working on your spreadsheet or document on the other. What could be better?  Well, some with greater foresight than me are pushing this concept to even greater heights.  Why limit yourself?  As Michael B demonstrates in the photo to the right,  you can stream La Liga on one screen and EPL on the other. No more of these forced choices, you can have it all.
 

Back to FA Cup

This is a mixed competition weekend, with the EPL schedule reduced to accommodate the FA Cup semi final matches.  In the first semi, Man United takes on Tottenham at 12:15 Saturday afternoon.  The match will be at "neutral" Wembley, which of course has been Spurs home field all year.  There has been some griping about this, though to his credit, I did not see Mourinho complaining.  Ah, but the Special One was making news anyway, suggesting he might bench some players after the West Brom result.  He's already softened that stance after a midweek 2-0 win over Bournemouth so who knows.  Probably a good match to check out.

The other semi is Chelsea-Southampton at 10 am on Sunday.  Is this a cruel joke or what?  A week after the Saints cough up a 2-0 lead to the Blues, they get to face them again.

The abbreviated EPL  schedule is littered with matches of consequence to the relegation battle and maybe the chase for the Europa League.  Saturday has two matches on NBCSN - West Brom vs Liverpool (7:30) and Watford - Crystal Palace (10:00).  The Hornets are probably safe but can't seem to put the issue to bed; Palace really needs a point or three to get some distance from the bottom three.

Sunday includes Arsenal hosting West Ham (8:30 NBCSN), Stoke-Burnley (8:30 NBC Gold) and Man City - Swansea (11 on NBCSN).  Not the most friendly of fixtures for the relegation candidates.

The shortened schedule concludes with Everton - Newcastle at 3 pm on Monday, curiously only available on NBC Gold (update - looks like it's on NBCSN).  At this point, the match may have more meaning as a tryout for England's World Cup squad.  We Magpie fans have been wondering about Gareth Southgate's disinclination to include either Lascelles or Shelvey in his squad.  I will grudgingly admit that Maguire and Tarkowski have better ratings than Lascelles but what about leadership?  Hasn't the rap against England in WC play been that they have the talent but somehow can't get the job done on the pitch?  Shelvey is a tougher call.  He can be mercurial, brilliant passing one minute, stupid fouls the next.  But under Benitez, I think he's gotten much steadier. 

For the Union, things just get tougher.  They have a road match against FC Dallas, who have yet to lose this year.  Jack Elliott is listed as a probable starter so the injury he picked up last week must not have been too serious.  Nicking a point here would be an excellent result.

Finding A $20 Bill

Shelvey gives Newcastle the lead (Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

You know that feeling when you pull out a pair of jeans you haven't worn in awhile and find a $20 in the pocket?  That's what Newcastle's 2-1 win at Leicester felt like.  I secretly harbored hope that we would nick a point in this match but I wasn't really counting on a result.  The Magpies certainly came out brightly enough and when Shelvey scored at 18 minutes off a pass from Perez I immediately started thinking about a point.  Perez added to the lead with an improbable goal at 75 minutes and three points seemed assured.  Ah, you know that's not the Newcastle way.  Vardy scored at 83 minutes and the rest of the way was a bit shaky. But, the defense did hold and the $20 three points were ours. 

Although mathematically safety is not assured at the point, Newcastle sit 10th in the table and are 10 points clear of relegation.  There will need to be some serious upsets, and lots of them, for the Magpies not to stay up at this point.


The Bloom Is Not Off the Rose

Well that was a crappy seven days for Man City.  First there was last Wednesday's Champions League blowout loss at Liverpool.  Then they blew a 2-0 lead at home to Man United and failed to clinch the EPL on Saturday.  The trifecta was completed with a 1-2 loss at home to Liverpool which ended their Champions League hopes.  No quad, no triple, just a lousy double (EPL and League Cup). I would argue that this shouldn't cheapen the quality of Man City's season given the ease with which they won the league.  This is still a remarkable season.


Lessening the Drama

A mere few weeks ago we were looking at a tight battle for the Champions League berths and a congested race to avoid relegation.  Now, things are looking more settled.  Losers to Tottenham last weekend, Chelsea dropped more points as they could only manage a 1-1 draw with West Ham.  The top four really don't look in doubt anymore.  Stoke and Southampton lost to Tottenham and Arsenal respectively while others above were all getting a point.  Crystal Palace again passed up a chance to make a bold move towards safety as they ceded a late goal at Bournemouth in a 2-2 draw; still the point was helpful.  Either Brighton or Huddersfield could have made similar strides but the 1-1 draw did give them each a point.  And Swansea took a point with a late goal to rescue at draw at West Brom.  The BFS model is showing that Brighton and Huddersfield are the sides most likely to save West Brom, Stoke or Southampton from relegation, but those three remain clear favorites to go down. 



This Week in Refereeing Controversy

Turns out Antonio Mateu Lahoz is Spanish for Michael Dean

Down 1-3 against Liverpool, Man City had appeared to score late in the first half of the second leg only to see it ruled out for offside.  Except it wasn't.  Here is the play.  Some commentators were suggesting it came down to an interpretation of whether Milner made a deliberate play on the ball.  But turns out that's not relevant at all.  The ball went from deBruyne's chip into the box to keeper Karius' punch out of the ball which then came off Milner (deliberate or not deliberate) to Sane.  The only questions here are whether Sane was offside when deBruyne played the ball and whether there was an intervening touch by a Man City player before the ball got to Sane.   Pretty clearly the answers are no and no.   At 2-3 does the second half play out differently?  Who knows.  Here at BFS our philosophy is that the ref doesn't cost you the game.  That said, we can't help but note that Antonio Mateu Lopez looks to be one of those refs who somehow always inserts himself into the match.


The Whole Was Less Than the Sum of the Parts

While we can't find too much fault with individual performances, the fact is the Union could only manage a 1-1 draw at home against a mediocre San Jose side.  They were totally in command of the midfield thanks to Dockal (easily his best game so far), Med and Bedoya.  Fafa Picault certainly provided a dynamic attacking presence down both wings.  And on the whole, the defense was reasonably well-organized.  The problem was that the crosses never got to their destination or the shots never got made. Also, the Union looked susceptible to the counterattack, allowing one goal on the counter and dodging the bullet in a few other cases.  Still very early in the season but we should know by now that home draws just don't get you to the playoffs.


Champions League Chaos

You already know that Man City was ousted.  Barcelona, seemingly in command with a 4-1 lead, lost the second leg 0-3 against Roma and were eliminated on the away goal tie breaker.  Real Madrid was seconds away from extra time after blowing a 3-0 lead to Juventus; a late foul (justified IMHO) in the box gave Ronaldo the chance to win it with a PK and he did.  In the last quarterfinal, Bayern took care of a stubborn Sevilla.  By the time you read this, the draw for the semis should be out.


Don't Say There's Nothing On

Somehow, NBC has managed to get eight of this weekend's 10 matches on TV.  Only Burnley-Leicester and Huddersfield-Watford are relegated to NBC Gold.  For my money, the match of the weekend is Crystal Palace - Brighton; like many of these matches between relegation candidates, a win for either would be massive but even a draw moves them away from danger.  I have Palace winning this won. It's on NBCSN at 10 Saturday morning.  Next I'll be focused on West Ham-Stoke on Monday at 2:45 (NBCSN); if Stoke plan to escape even a draw here won't be enough while the Hammers could put their relegation threat to bed with a win.

Tottenham-Man City is certainly a top-tier matchup but may not mean that much in terms of overall placing (Saturday 2:45 NBCSN).  The other top sides have what look like winnable fixtures; Man United is home to West Brom (Sunday at 11 on NBCSN), Liverpool host Bournemouth (Saturday 12:30 on NBC) and Chelsea travel to Southampton (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN).

Newcastle will take on Arsenal Sunday morning at 8:30 (NBCSN).  I never count on any points when the Magpies take on the Gunners.  Usually I count on a thrashing too.  Maybe things have changed but I doubt it.  Swansea-Everton (Saturday at 10 on CNBC) rounds out the schedule.

The Union host Orlando on Friday night.  Presumably this is a side the Union will be fighting with for a playoff spot.  A draw (or loss) here would be an early sign that we're not a playoff team.

Big Steps - Forward and Backward

The run-in still has a way to go but a few more EPL teams made major strides towards sealing their fates - good or bad.  In MLS, the Union found the air pretty thin in Colorado.


The Winners

Perez celebrates game-winner vs Huddersfield

The two biggest winners this week look to be Newcastle and Tottenham.  The Magpies dominated play but typically struggled with finishing in a 1-0 win over Huddersfield at SJP.  Nothing cheap about the goal from Perez with a big assist from Kenedy, seen here in this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  Major props to Kenedy, who had an otherwise unremarkable day, for the poise to pick out the pass rather than taking the shot himself.

So we all know about the difference between correlation and causation.  Still, I present the following numbers for Newcastle:

                                             Points PG      Goals scored PG      Goals allowed PG
During Dummett's injury:               .94                     1.00                       1.53
Since his return:                          1.42                     1.00                         .92

Yes, things have been much better since Paul Dummett returned to Newcastle's back line.  WhoScored.com has his average game rating at 6.93; on the Newcastle squad, only Kenedy, Lascelles and Lejeune are higher. 

The three points take Newcastle to 35 total and 538 now lists Newcastle with less than a 1% of going down.  The BFS model says 33 points will be enough to stay up this year.  Three more points would be good to provide some cushion should there be some upsets in the final weeks.  The schedule is not promising in that regard but a home match against West Brom might do the trick.

Tottenham took a big three points from Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, giving them an eight point cushion over the Blues for a top four finish.  A poor decision from Lloris put Spurs down 0-1 but a sterling strike from Eriksen froze Caballero and leveled things right at half time.  Two tallies from Dele took care of things for Tottenham in the second half.  There really was little doubt about the better side here.  Now 538 has Spurs with greater than 99% chance of a top four finish.

We'll add West Ham to the list of winners with their 3-0 thumping of Southampton.  On paper this was a much closer match; the 538 prediction was 40%-34% for WHU and I had it as draw.  This was one of those six point matches and the win moved the Hammers five points clear of the relegation zone.  Might quiet the fans for a little while.


The Losers

Well, basically the flip side of the matches discussed above.  Chelsea were well-beaten and look out of the running for Champions League.  Same for Southampton - they looked awful.  The Saints do have a few chances in the final weeks but not that many.  A home match with Bournemouth and a trip to Swansea look like their best chances.  Points on the road against Everton and Leicester would help but off of recent form that seems like a long shot. The BFS model has them finishing 18th.

I guess we need to put Huddersfield on this list too, though we couldn't have expected anything more than a draw for them at St. James' Park.  The problem for the Terriers is an unkind run-in.  They still have matches with Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  The best bets for points are Watford and Everton at home; this week's trip to Brighton looms very big as well.They will also need to rely on the kindness of strangers, as in, they can't afford to have any upper table teams drop points to Southampton or Stoke.

We won't include Crystal Palace or Swansea on this list.  Benteke's continuing slump cost Crystal Palace a chance at one or even three points against Liverpool but the Eagles have plenty of chances in the run-in, including home matches with Brighton and West Brom.  Swansea was never going to get a result at Old Trafford plus they have some chances to add points down the road as well.

West Brom and Stoke did themselves no favors, losing to Burnley and Arsenal respectively.


Union Offense Short on Oxygen

That was a clunker at altitude in Colorado.  The Union were the better side in the first half but that was a very low bar.  There were really no clear cut scoring chances either way.  In the second half, the Union defense was shredded for the first time this year and the 0-3 final says it all.  Really tough game for Jack Elliott, the first real disaster for him that I can remember.  Dockal just isn't creating much offense, though again he's still really new.  As Bob K notes, weird results all over MLS right (Toronto with two losses already and Seattle with three) now so best not to get too upset about anything just yet.

Meanwhile, on the left coast they held the first installment of newest MLS derby between the LA Galaxy and the new LAFC, brilliantly dubbed El Trafico.  And what a match.  LAFC held a 3-0 lead through 60 minutes before the Galaxy started the comeback.  It was already 3-2 when newly signed Zlatan Ibrahimovic laid this one on LAFC. Then in stoppage time he completed the improbable comeback with this header.  Aside from being pissed that LA gets to sign Ibra, the whole thing was pretty good for MLS.


New Transfer Target?

Courtesy of Philip S, we get this article about Olympic sprinter Usain Bolt training with Dortmund.  Make sure you get to all three embedded videos which, in order, show Bolt wrongfooting the keeper on a PK, nutmegging a defender, and scoring on a header.  If some team were to sign him, they'd likely be accused of inflicting a publicity stunt on the soccer world.  On the other hand, is it a publicity stunt if the guy has talent?


Derbies

Two of the bigger derbies this weekend but frankly our attention is drawn to other matches.  The Merseyside derby kicks off the weekend at 7:30 on Saturday at Goodison Park.  Saturday's feature match at 12:30 is the Manchester derby from Old Trafford.  Both matches are more about pride than position in the table.

We'll be more interested in the Bournemouth-Crystal Palace and Brighton-Huddersfield matches.  And good on NBC for figuring out these are the critical contests of the weekend.  The former is on CNBC and the latter on NBCSN, both at 10 am on Saturday.

Not counting on anything from Newcastle's trip to Leicester but secretly I'm thinking that maybe with their recent form the Magpies can nick a point from this match.  Tottenham travel to Stoke and Arsenal host Southampton, two of the type of matches I was referring to in comments about Huddersfield - the other relegation candidates are hoping all goes according to form.  Spurs, who may need to be wary of a hangover after the big win over Chelsea, are only on NBC Gold at 10 Saturday but you can see the Gunners on NBCSN at 9:15 Sunday.

On this side of the Atlantic, the Union try to move past last weekend's debacle with a home match against San Jose.

Uh oh, it's Master's weekend too.  Try to get out for at least a few minutes.

There's Snow Place Like Home

Red card, white snow.  Charlie Adams fouls
Rooney and gets sent off.

I don't remember seeing so much snow during matches, especially in March.  Scenes like the one pictured on the right here were common on Saturday.  Of course, it matches perfectly with our spring weather here in the US Northeast.  Maybe it was good the schedule was light, with four FA Cup matches and four EPL games.


FA Cup 

The semis are set and it's not really a surprise:

Man United - Tottenham
Chelsea - Southampton

Hmm, one of these is not like the other.  That would be Southampton, which had the luxury of playing League One Wigan.  Despite being outplayed by the lower division side, the Saints managed a 2-0 win and a berth in the semis.  Tottenham and Manchester United were generally not pressed in beating Swansea (3-0) and Brighton (2-0) respectively.  The last of the quarters - Leicester vs Chelsea - was easily the most interesting of the four.  A generally even match throughout, Chelsea held a 1-0 lead late until Jamie Vardy leveled things in the 76th minute.  Pedro's goal in extra time (the 105th minute) ended up being the match winner.  The semi finals will be on Saturday April 21 at Wembley.  Uh, that's not exactly a neutral site for the Man United - Tottenham match.


Relegation Picture 

Even with a reduced schedule, the matches this weekend may have sealed the fates of a few sides.  West Brom, always a favorite in the relegation race, carried a 1-0 lead over Bournemouth into the 76th minute but late goals from Ibe (77th minute) and Stanislaus (89th minute) meant the Baggies got nothing.  The three points for Bournemouth take them to 36 and almost certain survival.  Stoke played in the snow with just 10 men but battled Everton gamely.  Everton finally broke through in the 69th minute but the Potters hopes of a point were restored with a goal in the 77th minute.  Alas, Cenk Tosun stole it back with his second of the match in the 84th minute.  The BFS model now has Stoke finishing 19th with 29 points, six short of safety.

Crystal Palace made a big move towards survival with a 2-0 win on the road at Huddersfield.  We won't say it was awesome soccer but the five yellow cards in the second half are an indication of the match's intensity.  This was two points the Eagles didn't expect.  Even better for Crystal Palace, it changed a few of the 538 projections for future matches so the BFS model now shows them at 42 points, well clear of the relegation zone.

In the only other match of the weekend, Liverpool more than handled Watford, keeping the Reds on track for a top four finish and leaving the Hornets stranded mid-table but probably safe from relegation.


What If They Played a Match and No One Came?

As the old saying goes, there were many in the crowd at Saturday's Union match who came disguised as empty seats.  The announced attendance was over 15,000 but I'd be surprised if there were 5,000 bodies in the stands.  And we were treated to a less than scintillating 0-0 draw with Columbus.  Not that this was a terrible result, just not the greatest viewing.

New CB Auston Trusty (I think this is just after 'megging
the Columbus midfielder) Photo:Trey Madara

The biggest issue seemed to be that Union players would only shoot when the ball was placed on a platter for them, which means they either never got the shot off or by the time they did, the defense had closed them down.  Our new midfielder, Borek Dockal (pronounced Smith Dotch-kal), was less than stellar but this was his first match so we're not too upset about that.  The highlight was the positioning of the back line, especially the work of Trusty and Elliott.  Those two seemed to be constantly disrupting the Columbus passing lanes.  Check out this from The Philly Soccer Page player ratings for the match:

Auston Trusty — 7

Another game, another impressive performance by the Union Academy product. Trusty plays with a real swagger atypical of centerbacks. Please tell me the last time you saw a CB nutmeg a midfielder 40 yards from goal. Yeah, me neither. Extra points for being the inspiration for a Jim Curtin quote about how “centerbacks don’t look like they just walked out of the pub anymore.”

In fact, I did notice him nutmeg that midfielder.  It was right after Jeff K and I agreed that maybe ball handling was not Trusty's strong suit.  What do we know?

So four points from two matches and two clean sheets.  Good start.


Life Imitates Art Football Manager

Referee stats for the 2017-18 season:
Mike Dean (real life): 3.67 yellow cards per game (2nd most in EPL)
Mike Dean (Football Manager): 4.40 yellow cards per game (most in EPL)

Watching as a neutral, I don't mind seeing Mike Dean as the referee because he can make things interesting.  If it's a Newcastle match, there's a slight sense of dread, because he can make things interesting.  Same thing when I'm managing Chester; I cringe when I see he's been assigned to our game.  But I've learned now to instruct my players to be cautious in their tackling when he's the referee and we're doing a better job of staying out of trouble.

With the EPL title sewn up, the Blues are focused on the FA Cup and Champions League.  We are set for the final in the FA Cup and carry a 4-2 lead heading into the second leg of the Champions League against Man United.  Yes, nice to have four away goals coming home.


International Break

No league matches this week.  Check out your favorite national team's friendlies; there's a pile of them between now and next Thursday.  US takes on Paraguay on Tuesday.

BFS is also going to take a break next week.  Don't forget there will be a full slate of EPL matches the weekend of 3/31.  We'll be focused on Newcastle-Huddersfield, West Ham-Southampton and Chelsea-Tottenham.  Check your local listings for dates and times.

The Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades

(musical accompaniment courtesy Timbuk 3)

Easy there, Sparky.  This is Newcastle we're talkin' about.

But it was a glorious weekend, wasn't it?  Basically everything fell the Magpies way.  Starting with the shockingly easy 3-0 win for Newcastle at home against Southampton.  I hadn't even sat down before Kenedy was bringing down Shelvey's pass off his chest, pivoting and scoring.  The second goal was a brilliant piece of counterattacking, as you can see from the video (this week's  YouTubeableMoment). Check out Gayle's run in support of Perez and Kenedy.  Shelvey's

Benitez and Pellegrino: Rafa answers the question as to
how many of them will still be managing come
 Monday (Image: PA)

pass set up Ritchie for the third at 57 minutes, which meant calm viewing the rest of the way.  Number of minutes this season Newcastle had a three goal lead before this moment - four.  No need to consult with BFS Director of Operations Research Dennis for that.  Massive three points.  And apparently enough of a spanking that the Southampton board sacked Mauricio Pellegrino.

Then the results started coming in from other precincts.  Every team in the bottom 11 besides Newcastle dropped points!  The biggest of the result might have been West Ham losing at home 0-3 to Burnley.  Huddersfield could only manage a 0-0 draw at home to short-handed Swansea.  And everywhere else, the top sides were taking care of business.  By the end of Match Week 30, Newcastle's relegation chances as measured by 538 had dropped from 18% to 4%.  The good news is that Newcastle are almost over the line; the bad news is that of the eight remaining matches, precious few are likely to add points.  Home matches against Huddersfield and West Brom offer the best opportunities.  Other positive news is that with this weekend's results, it's not outrageous to think that 34 points might be enough to stay up.


Meanwhile, Back at the Top

With most of the top sides winning, not much changed there.  Well, except for Man United taking the measure of Liverpool 2-1 at Old Trafford.  As I suggested last week, the result hardly damages Liverpool's chances of a top four finish but it did significantly boost the likelihood that Man United will finish second.  Man City rolled on with a modest 2-0 win over Stoke City and Tottenham started slowly but eventually took care of Bournemouth 4-1.  Chelsea kept pace with a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace but still look like the odd man out.


West Ham Fans Are Revolting

One of multiple pitch invasions during West Ham Burnley match
(Christopher Lee/Getty Images)

As the likely result became clearer at Olympic Stadium, there were multiple pitch invasions by disgruntled fans.  Though we do not condone fans going onto the field, we are awarding style points to the fan who took the corner flag and planted it in the center circle.  Some of the other incidents weren't so cool and there was a lot of tackling that didn't involve two players. This article provides a helpful explanation as to what's driving the discontent.  Not a happy scene.


This Is Definitely Not My Beautiful Game

The scene at West Ham may have been ugly but at least it wasn't disgusting or downright scary.  No, we can turn to others for that.  First, we have former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher spitting at a 14 year-old girl in the aftermath of Man United's 2-1 win over the Reds.  No link to the video because, well, it's disgusting; you can easily find it if you're interested.  Sure there was some banter going on there but spitting?  Really?  Uh, the girl's dad has nothing to be proud of as he was taking the video while driving.

Continuing on, in Greece, after a controversial call late in the PAOK-AEK match in the country's top league, PAOK owner Ivan Savvidis entered the field of play with a gun holstered on his hip.  You can read more and see the video here.   This is just plain scary.  Scary enough that Greek officials have suspended league play for the moment.  The incident comes on the heels of convictions for match fixing and referee intimidation. Suddenly, the MLS is looking much more grown-up.


Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Man United and Chelsea followed Tottenham in departing from this year's Champions League competition.  Neither was in a particularly strong position after the first leg and neither distinguished themselves in the second leg.  Michael B noted that The Special One offered up a bizarre post-match press conference, even for him.  Basically Mourinho said "What's the big deal?  Man United usually fares poorly in Champions League. Heck, I knocked them out twice myself when coaching other sides."  Really, read this and tell me that's not what he said.

Which takes me to the audience participation portion of this week's blog.  On more than one occasion, we have suggested that Mourinho may be the Donald Trump of football managers.  The Guardian apparently thinks so too and offers this 10 question test asking the reader to choose whether it was Trump or Mourinho who uttered the particular quote.  I got 8 of 10, which likely means I'm reading too many soccer and political blogs.


Whither Wenger?

With a 3-0 win over Watford and a convincing Europa League take down of AC Milan, this was a much better week for Arsenal.  They've drawn CSKA Moscow in the quarters.  At 538, they're giving Arsenal a 15% chance of winning the whole thing.  Which leads to the following question: If Arsenal finish 6th in the EPL but win the Europa League, does Wenger survive for another year?


Who Should We Root For?

BFS Social Media Director Mackenzie made sure I saw this YouTube post from Hank Green.  Hank notes that with the absence of the USMNT from this year's World Cup finals, many are facing the question of who to root for.  Personally, I have been heavily linked with the Belgium team and will be able to give them my mostly undivided attention.  In the role usually played by the US - that is, an underdog that will have to work it's ass off just to get out of the group stage - I'll be looking in on Iceland.  How can you not get excited about a country whose population, as Hank points out, is less than Wichita Falls?   Iceland did dodge a bullet when they found out that midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson will only miss 6-8 weeks with a knee ligament problem; initial reports had suggested he might miss the World Cup.

Recall that two years ago, Mackenzie did offer a handy, relatively easy-to-implement method of determining your rooting interest in the European Championships.  Her advice was to always cheer for the side with the least imperialistic history; if both countries were colonial powers, then choose based on the diversity of the squad.  This approach should work equally as well for the World Cup.  Unless of course, you want to root for England Germany any European country except Iceland (remember the Vikings?).  Belgium?  Ooh, not good, not good.


FA Cup Quarters

The FA Cup quarterfinals make a real hash of this weekend's schedule.  The quarterfinals themselves feature seven EPL sides and one League One club.  Can we say there are any scintillating match-ups?  Not really.  Tottenham go to Wales to face Swansea City at 8:15 on Saturday; except for Spurs penchant for getting draws on the road against lesser sides in the FA Cup, we'd say this should be no contest.  Manchester United host Brighton at 3:45 Saturday afternoon; after the mid-week Champions League exit, one would think anything less than a decisive win for the Red Devils will be cause for a Spanish Portuguese inquisition.

On Sunday at 9:30 we have the curious case of Wigan (League One) taking on relegation threatened Southampton, who will be under the care of a new manager.  This might be the most intriguing of the four fixtures.  The round concludes with Leicester-Chelsea at 12:30, which might be a decent match as well.

Because of the FA Cup matches, there are only four league fixtures.  We'll be focused on Huddersfield vs Crystal Palace at 11 am Saturday on NBCSN. We have this down as a draw but a win for either would vastly improve their chances of staying up.  Liverpool-Watford is the other TV match at 1:30 on Saturday, also on NBCSN.

We'll be in DVR mode Saturday, partly because I'll be making my first trip of the year to Talen Energy Stadium to see the Union take on Columbus.  The Crew are off to a good start and this is likely a sterner test than the season opener against New England. 

Is It the Run-in Yet?

Michael B and I have this debate as to when the "run-in" - the final stretch of the EPL fixtures - starts.  There seems to be no definition.  With almost a quarter of the season left, I think it's too soon but I have seen several newspapers handicapping the run-in this week.  Regardless of when it starts, this year's run-in has plenty to watch as four teams are competing for three Champions League spots and at least eight sides are at some risk of relegation.


No Surprise

 Lascelles was lucky to get away with this.
 Photograph: Gareth Copley/Getty Images

Newcastle's match at Anfield went about as well - or poorly - as we expected.  The Magpies generated precious few chances in the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool.  The best news from this match might be that Jamaal Lascelles did not get a red card - or even a foul - for bringing down Mo Salah on the edge of the box as time expired (see picture); the Newcastle captain would have been looking at a three-match suspension at exactly the wrong point in the schedule.

Elsewhere there was a decidedly mixed bag of results from a Newcastle-not-getting-relegated perspective.  Swansea grabbed all three points from West Ham and slipped past the Magpies in the standings.  Brighton continued Arsenal's nightmare of a season with a 2-1 win over the Gunners and have pretty much put to bed their chance of relegation.  Bournemouth nicked a point off Leicester at home but the Cherries were already counting the three points before an incredible  Riyad Mahrez free kick in the 97th minute leveled things; after Bournemouth's late game antics against Newcastle the week before, don't look for any sympathy for me.  Spurs were Magpie-friendly with a steady 2-0 win over Huddersfield.  The 0-0 draw between Stoke and Southampton highlighted the finishing problems that plague most of the relegation-threatened teams; the draw was helpful to Newcastle since neither picked up the three points.

Totally conflicted as I watched the heartbreaker of a match at Selhurst Park.  With Crystal Palace shockingly up 2-0 on Man United, all I could see was a key relegation competitor getting an unexpected three points.  As Man United scored their first goal, I was making a deal with myself that, even though I really like Crystal Palace and don't have much love for Mourinho, rooting for a draw would be acceptable. Of course, once Lukaku leveled things at 76 minutes, the Red Devils sensed the blood in the water.  Sure enough, there was Nemenja Matic stuffing the game winner in at 91 minutes.  Jeff H will be thrilled as Man United get a second straight YouTubeableMoment (you might say it was an auto Matic pick).  Great moment in the telecast when the camera focused in on the raucous Eagle fans reveling in the 2-0 lead; the announcer quickly pointed out the fans would have been as vocal even if the score was 0-3.

Probably should mention that Man City handled Chelsea 1-0 at home.  Conte did many of the same things that Benitez did to slow Man City down and got the same result.  Commentators however suggested it was one thing for Newcastle to take a defensive approach but an entirely different thing for a top team like Chelsea to do so.  Maybe, but protecting your goal differential in a tight table makes sense to me.


BFS Run-in Predictor

Maybe the definition of the run-in should be when I feel like there are few enough games left that it's not an overwhelming task to set up an EPL prediction spreadsheet.  Which means we are at the run-in because I just finished spreadsheet.  Simple enough to do, just assign win, lose or draw for each match.  I ran a few scenarios myself then, looked at the 538 match-by-match projections.  Happy to say there were no matches where I had one side winning and 538 the other.  However, they don't project any matches as draws so there were some differences based on that.  In some cases I saw a close match and they saw a clear winner; many others though they saw as close too.

Some notable trends emerged as I ran through the possibilities:

1. Man City will win the EPL (effing brilliant Captain Obvious)
2. In all the scenarios, Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham get the other three CL spots; Liverpool beat out Spurs every time but Man United finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on how they do against Liverpool and Man City
3. West Brom go down every time (see comment on 1)
4. The last two relegation spots usually go to Stoke or Southampton but West Ham and, gulp, Newcastle occasionally pop up; Swansea, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace don't show up in the bottom three but are never more than a few points from the drop zone, meaning one wrong projection and they are in the mix

I'll be updating with actual results so we'll see how this goes.


European Stuff

The EPL sent two teams onto the Champions League quarterfinals as Man City and Liverpool easily completed the second legs of their series.  Tottenham was looking pretty good at 1-0 before Juventus slipped in two quick tallies at 64 and 67 minutes.  A disappointing result, especially given they had the lead, but hard to find too much fault with their effort.  Man United and Chelsea have their chances next week.  Arsenal woke up from their nightmare long enough to take a 2-0 win in the first leg of their Europa Cup round of 16 tie with AC Milan; with the second leg at the Emirates, the Gunners look good to advance.


Union Top of the Table

What the kool keepers are wearing - Photo Daniel Gajdamowicz

Jeff H has provided a solid summary of the 2-0 win over the Revolution in last week's comment section.  The cold water people will point out that the Revolution aren't expected to set the league on fire and that the Union played more than 60 minutes a man up but could only score twice.  True enough but there were some positive takeaways.  First, we might not be the slowest team any more. Trusty chased down Agudelo and made a tackle that, if not properly executed, is probably a red card.  And Cory Burke, signed from Bethlehem, was a revelation as well.  They probably will play even better with Dockal in the #10 role.  Downside - CJ missed a lot of chances and not sure that our fullback core is that strong or deep.   Did you notice the Andre Blake's neckware to combat the frigid conditions? Either that or he was in a car accident(see photo).  Didn't hinder his performance and he was typically solid between the posts.


Keyest Match of the Year?

Newcastle take on Southampton at St. James' Park on Saturday at 10; the TV people understand the importance as it's on NBCSN.  A win for either side would vastly change their relegation outlooks.  A loss would not be crushing but would be a lost opportunity.  So many Magpie people are talking about the need for - and likelihood of - three points; indeed a win would be a massive step away from relegation but I'm not looking for more than a draw here.

That match comes on after a cracking start to the weekend - Man United vs Liverpool at Old Trafford (7:30 NBCSN).  Liverpool probably need to win if they hope to finish second but even a loss likely won't seriously damage their chances of a top four finish.  Even a draw gives Man United a slight advantage in the race for second.

Most of the other matches feature top table teams versus relegation challengers, which means I have no use for underdogs this weekend.  So Man City (vs Stoke - Monday at 4 pm), Chelsea (vs Crystal Palace - 12:30 Saturday), Tottenham (vs Bournemouth - noon on Sunday) and Arsenal (vs Watford - 9:30 on Sunday), please take care of business.  I'll throw Burnley (7th in the table!) in this group and hope they can beat West Ham.

We do have Huddersfield - Swansea on Saturday at 10 am (NBC Gold).  This strategic rooting is hard to sort out sometimes.  A draw isn't awful but since Swansea are the more likely competition with Newcastle to stay up, I think I prefer Huddersfield to win.  Everton and Brighton are both just about over the line but a win pretty much seals the deal for one of those teams.

Btw, those odd starting times on Sunday and Monday come about because we spring forward earlier than the English.

The MLS, in its infinite wisdom, has elected to field a league with 23 teams.  The more mathematically inclined may notice that this is an odd number (it's strange too) which means one MLS team is idle even with a full schedule.  Between that and Concacaf Champions League action, the early season schedule is very choppy.  In short, the Union are idle this weekend. 

Don't forget Champions League and Europa Cup action midweek.  Check your local listings as they say but pretty sure Fox Sports (1 or 2 or others) will have the matches.