Who's In?

Matchday 2 took 8,245,731 scenarios off the table, leaving 4,127,463 possibilities for the third round of group stage matches.  We will review them after discussing the latest results.  Again, swamped with information and things are running together even more than last week.  We will do what we can.

We Will Not Be Outphysicaled (term coined by a Masterman English teacher so it's okay)

After fashioning a nifty 2-0 halftime lead on Australia, the USMNT did not back down in the second half as the taller and bigger Socceroos substantially upped the physicality.  As with Paraguay, the US play in the second half was nothing to write home about but it was good enough to preserve the 2-0 win and claim first place in Group D.  

Alex Freeman heads in the second goal for the US
Photo: AP Photo/Maddy Grassy

An early own goal helped but as we have pointed out in the past, not all own goals are blind luck.  If the Aussie defender had not tried to intercept the cross from Balogun, surely Pepi would have put it in the net.  And stop calling me Shirley.  The second goal was initially ruled offside but VAR intervened to confirm that 1)Freeman was not in an offside position when the initial shot was taken and 2) Balogun, who was in an offside position, did not block Beach's vision or interfere with ability to try to make the save.

Oh, and they won with Pulisic out due to injury.  The win clinched first place in Group D and a date on July 1 with one of the third place finishers.

Conversation That Took Place

Scott F: Lol, I go to the bathroom and not even 30 seconds later they score

Steve: Stay there?

Later

Scott F: Okay, so if it's more than 30 seconds after I get back, it's offside?

Steve: Nope, that's going to count

Scott F: So I'm 2 for 2

Steve: Keep drinking so you have to keep going

Scott F: Yes, people are offering to buy me more drinks

The Wettest World Cup Match Ever

The view from Section C40 Row 18, which was
 much drier than Section C40, Row 15

Or so we are told anyway.  BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W and I ventured to The Linc  fully aware of the approaching thunderstorms.  Fortunately, the first downpour occurred while we were circling the stadium looking for the entrance to the VIP parking lot that Michael B had scored from a friend.  The next downpour started late in the first half; again we were lucky that our seats were just far enough back that we stayed dry.  The storm continued so the start of the second half was delayed by 90+ minutes.

Great atmosphere again.  I was a bit surprised at the size of the Iraqi crowd, who basically occupied the entire south end of the stadium.  The France supporters, though probably greater in number than the Iraqis, were spread throughout the rest of the stadium so they didn't sound as loud; they were however just as vocal.  The rain and delay in no way dampened the enthusiasm of the crowd and the energy right before the kickoff of the delayed second half was amazing.  

Tickets were on Jack (thanks buddy) so I picked up the food and drink tab.  Despite paying for $25 beers, $20 chicken tenders and high prices for other assorted items, I am still way ahead on that deal.

The match?  Pretty tepid first half that saw Iraq defend well and go in at half time just down 0-1.  Unfortunately an awful mistake at the back (see below) early in the second half put to rest any hope of the result for the underdogs.

Howlers

There have been a bunch.  I can remember two specific fu mess-ups. South Korea surrendered an unfortunate goal to Mexico on a mistake by keeper Kim Seung-gyu, which you can see here.  Since the final was 1-0 Mexico, that was a killer.  In another example, Iraq had been doing a great job frustrating France and were only down 0-1 early in the second half.  Then they had this mistake in the back that gave Mbappe an easy tap in for his second goal of the night.  Like he needs help getting goals, right?  I know there have been others but these were the two that come to mind.

Early Nominee for Best Hair

Tahith Chong makes case for Most Valuable Hair

We've seen some possibilities.  Mackenzie mentioned Yan Diamonde of Ivory Coast.  I saw Ayyoub Bouaddi of Morocco as another choice, though Mackenzie wasn't convinced.  My leading candidate right now is Curacao's Tahith Chong.

Almiron Providing Instructional Videos on Recent Law Changes

Almiron red carded: Didn't your parents teach you not
to cover your mouth when you slur (Photo: ITV)

Recall that against the US, Miguel Almiron became the first player to "benefit" from the revision to the mistaken identity clause in the VAR language that expanded it's application to cover players from the non-offending team.  In Friday's match, he became the first player to be red carded for the "don't cover your mouth when you slur" provision.  I'll admit this one caught me by surprise.  I read IFAB's review of the 26-27 law changes and this is not mentioned, nor is it listed in the language for Law 12 (Fouls and Misconduct).  However, there were numerous articles that did mention the rule change.  There was an announcement on the IFAB website; the key language is provided below:

Players covering their mouths in situations of confrontation with opponents

At the discretion of the competition organiser, any player covering their mouth in a confrontational situation with an opponent may be sanctioned with a red card.

 The announcers were aware of it and certainly the Turkiye players knew, as they pointed at Miggie as soon as he did it.  Somehow Paraguay, up 1-0 at the time, managed to keep the score that way despite playing more than half the match a man down.

Oh Miggie, where did your parents go wrong?  Unless Paraguay advance, he will not have a chance to violate any of the other new rules.

Hahahaland and Embop

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this remake of the Key role call butchering names.

Fun With Geometry

BFS Director of Historic Programs Mackenzie W sends along this story about the geometry and physics behind this year's World Cup ball.  Hmm, weird ball movement might be responsible for some of the howlers we've seen.

Not Funny

Last week it was Newcastle disappointment Yoane Wissa scoring for DR Congo against Portugal.  This week it was Newcastle disappointment Anthony Elanga scoring for Sweden against the Netherlands.  The two combined for a total of one goal in the 25-26 Premier League season and now have two in four WC matches.  

 What We Know

Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina have won their groups.  France, Norway and Colombia are guaranteed to advance.  Turkiye, Haiti, Tunisia, Panama and Jordan are out.

What About Third Place? (Danger: Wonkiness Ahead)

Before looking at the groups, we let's start with an assessment of what might be enough for third place teams to advance to the knockout stage.  Based on a review of each group's standings, I can only find five groups for which third place is guaranteed to have at least three points.  The flip side of that is that, right now, it's possible two points would be enough to get you to the knock out phase.  It's not as unlikely as you'd think.  Check it out:

Group A - If Mexico beat Czechia and Korea beat South Africa, third place has one point

Group B - If Qatar and Bosnia draw, third place has two points

Group E - If Germany beat Ecuador and Ivory Coast beat Curacao, third place has one point

Group G - If Belgium beat New Zealand and Egypt beat Iran, third place has one point

Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia, third place has two points

Group I - If Senegal and Iraq draw, third place has two points

Group K - If Congo and Uzbekistan draw, third place has two points

Individually, none of these sound outrageous to me.  However, at least five of them have to happen for two points to be enough.  So I guess it's still kind of a long shot. 

On the opposite end, does four points guarantee you'll advance?  Looks like no.  I found scenarios in every group but one (I) in which third place could have at least four points.  Check it out:

Group A - Czechia beat Mexico

Group B - Qatar and Bosnia don't draw

Group C - Scotland beat or draw with Brazil

Group D - Australia and Paraguay draw

Group E - Ecuador beat Germany

Group F - Sweden and Japan draw

Group G - Iran beat Egypt and New Zealand -Belgium isn't a draw

Group H - Uruguay beat Spain and Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia isn't a draw

Group J - Austria and Algeria draw

Group K - Congo beat Uzbekistan

Group L - Croatia beat or draw with Panama

Individually, some of these seem like long shots.  Collectively, nine of these would have to happen for for four points not to be enough.  

Teams that play later in the process will have a better idea of what it will take, as some of these scenarios will resolve.

What To Watch

So, what to watch, remembering that the last group stage matches kick off at the same time.  Unless you're going with multiple screens (two computers, computer and phone, two phones, tablet and phone, etc) you can only watch one.

Group A - Mexico have won Group A.  Everybody else has a chance to finish anywhere from second to last.  I'm going to guess that the South Korea vs South Africa (who have to win to have any chance of advancing) match will be more interesting than Mexico vs Czechia (who also have to win to have any chance of advancing).

Group B -The winner of Canada- Switzerland will finish first in the group; a draw means Canada advance while Switzerland finish second.  As noted above, Qatar and Bosnia need a win.  I'm going with Canada vs Switzerland; the latter, sitting on four points, might advance even with a loss.

Group C - Brazil, Morocco and Scotland can finish anywhere from first to third.  Guessing that Morocco - Haiti will be less competitive than Brazil - Scotland.

Group D - US has clinched first and Turkiye fourth so the neutral would go with Australia vs Paraguay.  The Aussies get second with a win or draw.

Group E - Curacao haven't been as helpless as expected but I'd still go with Germany - Ecuador over Curacao - Ivory Coast.

Group F - Netherlands are not guaranteed a spot yet but are expected to handle Tunisia so I'm going with Sweden vs Japan since they're level with three points.

Group G - This one is tougher but I'd go with New Zealand - Belgium over Egypt - Iran

Group H - Uruguay have been disappointing and Spain may have figured some things out so the Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia match may have more drama.

Group I - Though Senegal and Iraq have a lot at stake (each needs to win to have any chance to advance), I'm going with France - Norway; France get first in the group with a win or draw.  Plus it's a chance to see Hahahaland and Embop.

Group J - Austria - Algeria, each with three points, is the choice here over Argentina - Jordan.  Austria have the tie breaker.

Group K - Colombia - Portugal is a cool match up of heavyweights with first place in the group at stake; Portugal need the win to capture first.  DR Congo can get to four points with a win over Uzbekistan but I'd still go with the heavyweights.

Group L - My choice is made here as I will be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium for Croatia - Ghana.   Croatia, a point behind Ghana, will be more interested in a win.  On the other hand, Ghana, with the right result in the England - Panama match, could win the group.  

Yikes that was wonky.  And it's late so this doesn't even have the low level proofing I sometimes do.  There's no editor here right now.  Total chaos in the BFS offices.  Just keep watching.  It's been a pretty good show so far.