Hold On To Your Butts

With many of the knockout round spots hanging in the balance until the final whistle,  Samuel L Jackson's admonition was sage advice.  Certainly many disappointed with USWNT performance but they fared better than some of the other favorites who didn't even make it out of the group stage (looking at you Brazil and Germany).

Slow and Telegraphed

See the ball at the base of the post?  That's how close the 
USWNT came to losing (Robin Alam/USSF/Getty Images)

Aly Wagner succintly described the US play in the 0-0 draw with Portugal.  This felt like the first half of the Netherlands game, except it was that way for the whole match.  It never seemed like there was any space on the field for the players to move and the scoring chances were minimal.  They were lucky that a Portugese scoring attempt in stoppage time hit the post or the next plane ticket would have been for home.  

The post-match inquisition was full of theories.  Passing accuracy was an abysmal 63% but was that due to technical skills or poor tactics?  Both is a possible answer.  Does Andonovski have the skills to manage this team or is the talent not enough?  Again, both is a possible answer.  Were they too satisfied with doing enough just to advance.   More on that below. Yahoo's (and Chestnut Hill's) Henry Bushnell takes deeper dive here; the point about the troubles starting well before the World Cup is particularly apt.  

Of course, they could rally and still go deep into the tournament but that doesn't seem like the obvious path at this point.  Unlike the sirens that went off in the stadium during the Portugal, this may not be a false alarm.  

So Much Noise

One advantage of viewing these matches on DVR is that I have spent virtually no time listening to the talking heads in the studio.  Supposedly, because they are former players, they can offer insights as to what the players are thinking and how they can prepare for the match.  To that point, Carli Lloyd unloaded on the team for essentially acting too happy after the Portugal match.  

Steph Yang did a great piece in The Athletic about the issue of what do we really know about a team's mental state from the limited observations we get to make.  They acted happy on the field but were they really?  And, if they were, what's wrong with that?  She was especially pointed about how much do former players really know.  

They have their own valid experiences, true.  But personnel change, dynamics change, and players know better than anyone that the people commenting from the outside can only guess at the feelings inside.

Farther down in the article, former players, Tobin Heath and Christen Press basically dumped on the whole commentary scene because "they both knew from experience that external opinions were ultimately so much noise." 

I agree.  I do not need to hear Lalas, Lloyd and other players comment on team dynamics.  They don't know anymore than you or I about what's going on inside the minds of the players.  

Best Use of Drama in a Group Stage Match

There were five groups where the final placing was not settled until the final whistle.  By that I mean, one goal would have changed who advanced out of the group.  We mentioned the US-Portugal situation above.  Similarly, a goal by New Zealand against Switzerland would have been enough to send them on but it was not forthcoming and the 0-0 draw meant they were out.  Brazil was in the same place as well; the 0-0 draw with Jamaica meant the Reggae Girlz got second in Group F.  Both games in Group H were in play.  Morocco upset Colombia to earn the second spot, but a late goal by the South Americans would have given the slot to Germany.  Same thing with the Korea - Germany draw; a late tally would have also sent the Germans on.  

But for us, the winner in this category was South Africa - Italy, possibly the best game of the tournament so far.  A draw would have been enough for Italy and they took a 1-0 lead just 11 minutes in.  They ceded the advantage with one of the worst own goals on record, a no-look back pass to the keeper who had no chance to stop it.  South Africa took the lead at 67 minutes but Italy drew level at 74 minutes and looked to have the spot heading into stoppage time.  Then, at 92 minutes, Magaia made a nifty move into the box before sending a soft pass to Kgatlana, who slotted the ball into the net.  Seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, it was a worthy game winner.  Well, it would be the game winner after another 13 minutes of stoppage time which included a check for a possible handball in the box against South Africa.  

Death By A Thousand 894 Passes

The DNA of Spanish teams apparently requires them to play with lovely passing and high possession but limited scoring.  Against Japan they had 78% possession and 895 passes while being overrun 0-4 as the Japanese counterattack, using just 265 passes, had no trouble opening up the Spanish defense.  The loss meant they finished second in the group so they may yet go deep in the tournament but that is not the recent history of Spanish national teams.

By way of comparison, the Spanish men's team also faced Japan in the group stage in the 2022 World Cup.  In that match, Spain outpossessed Japan 83/17 and made 1058 passes to Japan's meager 225.  They also lost, though it was not a blowout at 1-2.  Like I said, it's in the DNA.

Missed It By That Much

The difference between advancing and going home:
Wilkinson is barely offside (from SkySports)

New Zealand certainly had an up and down competition.  The opening match upset of Norway was negated by the unexpected 0-1 loss to Philippines.  As mentioned above, the 0-0 draw in the final contest with Switzerland was not enough.  But how close they came to advancing may not be obvious.  In the Philippines match, they had seemingly leveled the match in the 68th minute but the goal was chalked off by a VAR revew for offside.  You can see how close the call was in the picture left.  A 1-1 result there and it's New Zealand, not Norway who go on to the knockout rounds.

  

Now I Know

Late in England's 6-1 rout of China, referee Casey Reibelt was hit by a Chinese shot on goal while standing in the penalty area.   As I watched her prepare for a dropped ball to China just outside the penalty area, my brain was telling me that was not the correct restart; because the contact was in the penalty area, the restart is a dropped ball to the goalkeeper.  Apparently somebody was saying the same thing to Reibelt, as she realized her mistake in time.  The relevant language is:

The ball is dropped for the defending team goalkeeper in their penalty area if, when play was stopped:

• the ball was in the penalty area or

• the last touch of the ball was in the penalty area

In all other cases, the referee drops the ball for one player of the team that last touched the ball at the position where it last touched a player, an outside agent or, as outlined in Law 9.1, a match official

Seems a bit unfair that I take a shot on goal, it hits the referee in the penalty area and the restart is a dropped ball to their goalkeeper.  

Speaking of unfair, in checking on the rule, I found something that I did not know.  If the ball hits a match official and goes into touch or across a goal line, the restart is not a dropped ball but whatever the restart would have been had the ball not hit the referee.  The rule is very clear:

The ball is out of play when:

• - it has wholly passed over the goal line or touchline on the ground or in the air

• - play has been stopped by the referee

• - it touches a match official, remains on the field of play and:

  • a team starts a promising attack or

  • the ball goes directly into the goal or

  • the team in possession of the ball changes

      In all these cases, play is restarted with a dropped ball.

Note the phrase "remains on the field of play."  This seems odd to me that if a player on Team A kicks the ball and it hits the referee crosses into touch that the restart is a throw-in for Team B.  How is that not a change in possession due to the ball hitting a match official?  I went back to the explanation of the rule change in 2019 and there is nothing to indicate why it has to remain on the field for this provision to apply.  Seems like it leads to a change in possession because it hit the referee.  Fortunately, my job is just to apply the rules, not explain the logic.  

BTW, in the match, Lauren James had two goals, three assists and one goal ruled out for offside in the match.

The Round of 16

Here's the full schedule for the next round:

August 5 (1 a.m. ET): Switzerland v. Spain

August 5 (4 a.m. ET): Japan v. Norway

August 5 (10 p.m. ET): Netherlands v. South Africa

August 6 (5 a.m. ET): United States v. Sweden

August 7 (6:30 a.m. ET): Australia v. Denmark

August 7 (3:30 a.m. ET): England v. Nigeria

August 8 (4 a.m. ET): Colombia v. Jamaica

August 8 (7 a.m. ET): France v. Morocco

Every continent, well, except Antarctica, is represented.  

As you set your DVRs for these matches, don't forget to add 90 minutes to the end to allow for extra time and kicks from the spot as all these contests cannot end in a draw.  Nicely spaced out over four days, this shouldn't be too taxing; i.e., watching them all is nowhere near as hard as getting through the group stage.  

Match the Gaffer

The EPL kicks off next weekend (first game Friday at 3 pm featuring Man City and Burnley).  We are busy creating a compilation of predictions of the table.  In the meantime, here's an exercise to get you familiar with the managers in the top division.  See if you can match the gaffer with his club.

Union Advance

I only caught the end of the League's Cup match against DC Unitedmatch on WPEN.  This one was 0-0 in regulation and the format for this competition is that they directly to kicks from the spot.  The Union outlasted DC United 5-4 in six rounds of kicks.  Ironically, the only miss for the Union was by Daniel Gazdag.  With the win they advance to the Round of 16 and face the Red Bulls at Subaru Park on Monday.

Live or DVR?

Clearly the bracket makers had penciled in the US for first place in their group, which would have put them in the Saturday 10 pm time slot.  Instead, we get the 5 am kickoff time.  That is just late enough to make live viewing a possibility, even if it is several hours before my normal wake-up time.  This may depend on when I fall asleep Saturday night (cough cough Sunday morning).

We already know of one line-up change because Rose Lavelle is suspended for the match due to yellow card accumulation.  I read one suggestion of returning Ertz to the defensive midfield spot and use Kelley O'Hara on the back line.  This might be too much tinkering for Andonovski.

I'm going in with the view that Sweden are the favorite here but the betting odds have the US as a slim favorite.  I would be happy to be pleasantly surprised.