Sunday, July 30, 2023

US Go "Dutch" With Netherlands

The US and Netherlands split the points equally in a tough match.  Some gems in the second round of games.  Thinking of matches like Canada's 2-1 comeback win over Ireland, Nigeria's 3-2 upset of Australia, the 2-2 draw between Argentina and South Africa and France's 2-1 classic against Brazil.


Get Mad But Make Sure You Get Even Too

For much of the US - Netherlands match, we were sure that the Dutch had one or two extra players on the pitch.  Between their technical superiority and energy, they looked to be toying with the US.  The 1-0 halftime score was more than fair.  Could the US first touch have been worse?  How many times did an attempted settle end up five feet away from the player?  Also, given the number of times US players slipped, they might want to be more careful with boot selection going forward. 

If you're only going to use one sub, Rose Lavelle is a good choice
Photo: Andrew Cornaga/Associated Press
Andonovski put on Rose Lavelle to start the second half and the difference was noticeable but the US were still down when Danielle van de Donk delivered a nasty cross check to Lindsey Horan in the 60th minute.  Frankly, I thought it was one of the dirtier fouls in the tournament but there was no yellow.    Horan was not pleased and made it clear as players got set for a corner barely seconds after the challenge.  Fingerpointing, pushing and words.  And these guys are teammates at Lyon.  (BFS Music Director Chris Z reminds us of the Dani Rojas - Van Damme dust up in Ted Lasso.)  The ref tried to get them to shake hands but no dice.  Anyway, Rose Lavelle delivered a perfect corner into the box and Lindsey Horan deftly headed it in for the equalizer.  You can see the foul and the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We had fully expected Horan to get a yellow for retaliation at some point (actually, I think Lavelle took care of it later) but this was a much better response.  

The draw was probably a fair result and leaves the US in reasonably good shape for the third group stage match against Portugal.  I was glad to see them challenged here rather than face adversity for the first time at some point in the knock out rounds.  Curious that Andonovski only used one sub.  On the negative side, they certainly aren't guaranteed a place in the knockout rounds and the way the Dutch owned them in the first half other hand makes you wonder what might happen against some of the other heavies.


Second Bite at the Cherry

The first-timers all did better the second time of asking, even if the improvement is barely perceptible.

- Portugal got a 2-0 win over Vietnam 
- Philippines upset host New Zealand 1-0
- Ireland had a lead against Canada but ended up losing 1-2
- Haiti played China close, losing only by 0-1 on a PK
- Panama were close against Jamaica but lost 0-1
- Vietnam lost to Portugal 0-2 but did get off five shots, one on target
- Zambia lost to Spain 0-5 but did take 10 shots, two on target

Note that Morocco's match with South Korea ended too late for this edition of BFS.  In sum, the group was only outscored this round by 4-11 and everybody had at least one shot on target.  Progress is measured in small steps.


So That's What You Call It

I always thought that a goal scored directly from a corner was called a goal scored directly from a corner.  Turns out, it's actually called an Olimpico.  As explained here, the name comes from a goal scored in the 1924 Olympics by Argentina against Uruguay.  The most recent example on the world stage was by Ireland's Katie McCabe Tuesday versus Canada; check it out here.  Hey Dennis, how many Olimpicos did Douglas Luiz have for Aston Villa last season?


What's In A Nickname?

Well, nothing if you don't have one.  According to this article in Sportico, there are three such countries at this World Cup - Canada, Switzerland and the US.  Looking at some of the other selections, maybe no nickname is a good thing.


Ways in Which Women's Game Is Like the Men's

You know where this is going - yellow for Oshoala
First, we have the constant raising of the arms by defenders to assist the Assistant Referee in calling
offside when they should be worried about defending.  Arguably, it cost Argentina a goal against South Africa.  If I were manager, any player that did that would get a $50,000 fine.  Or as Aly Wagner said, "you can put your arm up but you better be sprinting back to goal."

Also, there is the removal of jerseys after a goal.  Okay, so it only happened once so far (Asisat Oshoala  after putting Nigeria up 3-1 versus Australia) but as the stakes rise, we may see more.  In answer to a question from Dennis, yes, you still get the yellow for removing your jersey even if the goal is subsequently disallowed by VAR.


Is It Just Me?

Or are a high percentage of goals being scored off of set pieces?  Don''t have time to do the numbers but definitely feels that way.


Scenarios

With one match to go, three (Japan, Spain and Sweden) are guaranteed advancement to the knockout stage.  Five (Ireland, Costa Rica, Zambia, Vietnam, and Panama) are out.  Note that this is prior to Group H's second round matches Sunday morning.  

As with the men's tournament, the final group stage matches kick off at the same time for members within group.  This supposedly ensures full effort from all involved.  A detailed analysis of the scenarios for advancement is provided here. We'll try to distill it down a bit and, since you can really only watch one match within a group, offer recommendations as to which looks to have the biggest implications. 


Group A

The short version is that any team in the group advances with a win in their final match (Switzerland vs New Zealand and Norway vs Philippines).  Switzerland, top of the group right now, also advance with a draw and can even squeak through with a loss and some other help.  New Zealand and Philippines could make it with a draw and helpful results.  Norway have no such hope; they must win or go home.

Tough call but we're going with Switzerland - New Zealand (3 am Sunday morning - yes, astute readers will point out that this was six hours before the edition of BFS was available)


Group B

Nigeria and Canada are sitting pretty and advance with wins or draws versus Ireland and Australia respectively.  Australia advance with a win over Canada; a draw would require the right set of numbers in the Nigeria - Ireland contest.  Ireland will look forward to the next World Cup.

We'll go with Canada Australia (6 am Tuesday morning)


Group Baklava C

Spain and Japan each feasted on Zambia and Costa Rica and they'll play for first.  Spain take first in the group with a win or draw against Japan but even with a loss, they get second.  Lose and first goes to Japan.  Zambia and Costa Rica are out.  Easy peasy.

We recommend Japan - Spain (3 am Tuesday morning)


Group D

England only need a draw against China to advance; they can even advance with a loss and helpful results elsewhere.  Denmark (who play Haiti) and China are tied on points, goal differential and goals scored.  So the story is that the one that does better in the final match finishes ahead of the other.  If they end up even on goal differential and goals scored, Denmark have a huge advantage in that they beat China.  Both are in the unfortunate situation in which a win may not be enough.  Actually, so is Haiti but they need even more things to go right.  

All four matches in this group have ended 1-0; hedging here but I'll go with Denmark-Haiti (7 am Tuesday morning)


Group E

The US have done enough that a win or draw versus Portugal is enough for them to advance.  There's even a scenario in which they could lose and still advance (Netherlands lose to Vietnam by the right amount).  Netherlands face the same scenario; the difference is that they start two goals behind the US on goal differential.  Portugal are fortunate enough that they can advance with a win over the US; there's even a scenario in which a draw is enough.  Vietnam are out.

Easy choice for us - US vs Portugal (3 am Tuesday morning)


Group F

Almost like Group A in that three of four control their destinies, with only Panama out.  France are in best shape and advance with win or draw versus Panama; there are even some scenarios in which they advance with a loss.  Jamaica are also in with a win or draw against Brazil but a loss eliminates them.  Brazil make it with a win over Jamaica and could advance under certain circumstances with a draw.

We go with Jamaica - Brazil (6 am Wednesday morning)


Group G

Sweden are in.  Italy are in with a win over South Africa and have a chance with a draw if things break right.  South Africa and Argentina (who play Sweden) are both in the tough spot where a win does not guarantee advancement but know that they are out with losses or draws.

Eesh, this is tough but going with South Africa - Italy (3 am Wednesday morning)


Group H

Don't know but going to guess Germany - South Korea (6 am Thursday morning)


And In Other News

Though it didn't happen right away, the Union took a 3-0 half time lead against Queretaro in their second Leagues Cup match.  They cruised from there to a 5-1 win.  Next up is a Round of 32 match versus DC United.  That will be at Subaru Park on Thursday but time is TBD.


A Bunch of Transfer News (not necessarily new and certainly not complete)

Declan Rice is headed to Arsenal.  Fulham got Raul Jiminez.  Aston Villa added Diaby.  Recent exits at Chelsea include Loftus-Cheek and Aubameyang.  The latest defection to Saudi Arabia is Jordan Henderson, where he will play for Steven Gerard.  Zaha is gone from Crystal Palace.



We'll be back Friday morning with a post to set up the Round of 16, which starts on Saturday.  

3 comments:

  1. From a 2018 WaPo article about the prevalence of goals coming off restarts in the Mens World Cup group stage:

    "53% of the goals came off set pieces, compared to 28% of goals scored at recent World Cups , which is on a par with the rate scored in league competitions worldwide." This was 2018 and it was the men's tournament, but it's a data point.

    The next question I have is what per centage of restarts result in goals. Maybe not as important.




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    1. Actually, I think I meant to say goals off headers. The 22/23 average for the EPL was 15.3% of goals were headers.

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    2. From WhoScored.com - at 2022 Mens WC, 16.7% of goals were from headers. Through today at WWC, 29.1% of goals have been scored from headers

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